[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO

Remnants/Dissipated

SCOT PILIE'
Meteorologist

Meteorologist, Coastal Specialist

Posts: 499

[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 9, 2024 15:56:36 GMT -6 Weatherman518 - 70047/NOLA, byujewel, and 2 more like this

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Post by SCOT PILIE' on Sept 9, 2024 15:56:36 GMT -6

Shana,

This will likely be more impactful, wind-wise than Laura/Delta for parts of Acadiana/Lafayette on current projected path. Lot's will depend on system's final track...

In addition, key will also be how storm's intensity fluctuates at/near landfall. NHC showcases intensity leveling off near landfall with quick weakening after landfall.

Strengthening storms at landfall typically help drive wind impacts further inland, so maybe in this case, wind impacts could be reduced if storm does unwravel more rapidly. Right now, winds 65-85+mph in gusts appear plausible; but this will be highly dependent on track.

Last Edit: Sept 9, 2024 15:58:16 GMT -6 by SCOT PILIE'

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homeymandeville
Category 5

Posts: 1,517

[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 9, 2024 16:00:05 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by homeymandeville on Sept 9, 2024 16:00:05 GMT -6

Sept 9, 2024 15:56:25 GMT -6 ndg said:

Close up look to the latest 18z GFS, stronger and to the east of the previous 12z run.

Wow…folks in St John going to take another hit on whatever Francine is by the time it reaches their area. Good grief. Even if it is minor.

cajungal Category 5 Posts: 6,364 Member is Online	[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 9, 2024 16:00:25 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by cajungal on Sept 9, 2024 16:00:25 GMT -6 Sept 9, 2024 15:49:06 GMT -6 Zack Fradella said: Hate to break up the west party goers but you aren’t going to like the new GFS. Landfall in Terrebonne. You see? Yeah Thibodaux here. So no I don’t like it
	60 miles southwest of New Orleans) Thibodaux, La

cajungal
Category 5

Posts: 6,364

Member is Online

[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 9, 2024 16:01:38 GMT -6 via mobile T-man and cybersar like this

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Post by cajungal on Sept 9, 2024 16:01:38 GMT -6

Sept 9, 2024 15:52:22 GMT -6 T-man said:

Sept 9, 2024 15:49:06 GMT -6 Zack Fradella said:

Hate to break up the west party goers but you aren’t going to like the new GFS. Landfall in Terrebonne.

Focus on preparing for the storm impacts, if you live in South La. you will have some weather. Zack is still crushing this!

Yes he is. He is a blessing to have on the forum. He knows his stuff and keeps it real

60 miles southwest of New Orleans) Thibodaux, La

Kory Moderator Posts: 1,601 Location: Metairie, LA Staff Member	[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 9, 2024 16:02:36 GMT -6 via mobile ndg likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Kory on Sept 9, 2024 16:02:36 GMT -6 I guess the GFS didn’t get the memo. NHC went west!
	Located in Metairie, Louisiana.

flora... Covington, near CHS
GCWX Supporter

Posts: 2,080

[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 9, 2024 16:03:31 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by flora... Covington, near CHS on Sept 9, 2024 16:03:31 GMT -6

Sept 9, 2024 15:49:06 GMT -6 Zack Fradella said:

Hate to break up the west party goers but you aren’t going to like the new GFS. Landfall in Terrebonne.

Party Pooper! 😉
Look, I’ll admit I felt relieved at the western shift.
I still have PDST from Ida and the tree falling on my home, and that those long hours we sat in the dark, listening to the wind and the snap then boom of trees falling all on the neighborhood, never knowing when the next one would hit the house again.

But while I’m relieved, I haven’t stopped preparing just in case! The generator is prepped, food is sorted, electronics are being charged, jugs of water being frozen. Tomorrow I will move the outdoor furniture. And then.. watch the news and still hope for the best.

Covington... near CHS

homeymandeville Category 5 Posts: 1,517	[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 9, 2024 16:03:59 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by homeymandeville on Sept 9, 2024 16:03:59 GMT -6 Looking at Brownsville radar Francine is on the move now. ENE/NE motion it appears to me. Hard to really tell. But “the horse has left the barn”…🫣

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 67,615 Location: Ponchatoula, LA Staff Member	[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 9, 2024 16:04:06 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 9, 2024 16:04:06 GMT -6 Check out Brownsville radar...possible northern component has begun.
	Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App! NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

cybersar
GCWX Supporter

Posts: 188

[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 9, 2024 16:04:17 GMT -6 T-man and RowBear like this

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Post by cybersar on Sept 9, 2024 16:04:17 GMT -6

Sept 9, 2024 16:01:38 GMT -6 cajungal said:

Sept 9, 2024 15:52:22 GMT -6 T-man said:

Focus on preparing for the storm impacts, if you live in South La. you will have some weather. Zack is still crushing this!

Yes he is. He is a blessing to have on the forum. He knows his stuff and keeps it real

Yes he is. Pretty much the only TV met I watch. Not knocking the rest of the wvue crew but he makes sense and I TRUST his broadcasts!

flora... Covington, near CHS GCWX Supporter Posts: 2,080	[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 9, 2024 16:05:10 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by flora... Covington, near CHS on Sept 9, 2024 16:05:10 GMT -6 Sept 9, 2024 15:56:25 GMT -6 ndg said: Close up look to the latest 18z GFS, stronger and to the east of the previous 12z run. Well crap.. so much for being relieved. ☹️
	Covington... near CHS

ndg
GCWX Supporter

Posts: 9,974

[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 9, 2024 16:07:30 GMT -6

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Post by ndg on Sept 9, 2024 16:07:30 GMT -6

Early tropical model tracks always seem to over react whenever a reformation is not on their initial track in their short term, and I think that's what happened with the 18z runs.
So would expect a shift back to the east on their next 0z runs.

Kory Moderator Posts: 1,601 Location: Metairie, LA Staff Member	[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 9, 2024 16:11:09 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Kory on Sept 9, 2024 16:11:09 GMT -6 Steering currents have collapsed for the time being. Maybe still a slow drift north but it has put on the brakes as the trough begins creating a weakness.
	Located in Metairie, Louisiana.

SKYSUMMIT
Administrator

President | Director of Operations

Posts: 67,615

Location: Ponchatoula, LA

Staff Member

[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 9, 2024 16:12:44 GMT -6 roorufus, geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex, and 2 more like this

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Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 9, 2024 16:12:44 GMT -6

Sept 9, 2024 16:11:47 GMT -6 tony2001 said:

Sept 9, 2024 15:49:06 GMT -6 Zack Fradella said:

Hate to break up the west party goers but you aren’t going to like the new GFS. Landfall in Terrebonne.

Didn't they used to refer to the 18Z GFS as the "crazy uncle?" I pretty much blow off the 06 and 18Z GFS.

The crazy uncle is the Canadian model

Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com
United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore
Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX
Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App!
NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08
CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

homeymandeville Category 5 Posts: 1,517	[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 9, 2024 16:13:20 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by homeymandeville on Sept 9, 2024 16:13:20 GMT -6 18Z gfs a good amount east as well as the 18Z ICON. Just the messenger. But as I say. Everyone alnong the La coast and inland needs to remain on their watch.

jdschlum-bedico/village of bo
Category 1

Posts: 293

[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 9, 2024 16:14:34 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by jdschlum-bedico/village of bo on Sept 9, 2024 16:14:34 GMT -6

Sept 9, 2024 16:13:20 GMT -6 homeymandeville said:

18Z gfs a good amount east as well as the 18Z ICON. Just the messenger. But as I say. Everyone alnong the La coast and inland needs to remain on their watch.

And doesn’t the 18z runs have the data from the hurricane hunters in the models

lencast: I am in Jacksonville, and trying to drive back to New Orleans. Does anyone here know if the I-10 is passable in Lake City and Tallahassee. Sept 27, 2024 5:19:03 GMT -6

tcane: This sure looks like it dies quickly. maybe falling apart before metro New Orleans? Just looking at the lat dozen posts and images here. Sept 10, 2024 11:26:27 GMT -6

jenniqtip: I donate every year. 😀ju sry as soon as the first area of interest pops up!! I rarely post though so the tag isn’t necessary. Just know I appreciate everything you do!! Jul 7, 2024 12:53:12 GMT -6

[H] HURRICANE FRANCINE - GULF OF MEXICO

Post by SCOT PILIE' on Sept 9, 2024 15:56:36 GMT -6

Post by homeymandeville on Sept 9, 2024 16:00:05 GMT -6

Post by cajungal on Sept 9, 2024 16:00:25 GMT -6

Post by cajungal on Sept 9, 2024 16:01:38 GMT -6

Post by Kory on Sept 9, 2024 16:02:36 GMT -6

Post by flora... Covington, near CHS on Sept 9, 2024 16:03:31 GMT -6

Post by homeymandeville on Sept 9, 2024 16:03:59 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 9, 2024 16:04:06 GMT -6

Post by cybersar on Sept 9, 2024 16:04:17 GMT -6

Post by flora... Covington, near CHS on Sept 9, 2024 16:05:10 GMT -6

Post by ndg on Sept 9, 2024 16:07:30 GMT -6

Post by Kory on Sept 9, 2024 16:11:09 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 9, 2024 16:12:44 GMT -6

Post by homeymandeville on Sept 9, 2024 16:13:20 GMT -6

Post by jdschlum-bedico/village of bo on Sept 9, 2024 16:14:34 GMT -6

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