[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath

Thanks Kory!
So now we are on cut off low watch!

Yes and currently the placement and amplitude of the cutoff would mean it would be a monumental task to get this system west of 90W. We shall see what today’s runs show but this isn’t lala land anymore.

I don’t see much SE to NW movement across the EPS/GEFS. All their mid and upper level forecasted winds are out of the SW/SSW which make me think this rides the eastern half of ensembles. Those ensembles show a N and then NNE to NE movement as it approaches the NE Gulf Coast. It doesn’t start with any sort of N/NW bend until the cut off begins pivioting negative tilt after it’s inland. That has been the biggest take away from recent runs is that any sort of cut off has a positive tilt keep flow over the Gulf out of the SW/SSW in the upper and mid levels.

This very much has Michael vibes for track and maybe intensity to some degree. TheFlorida Panhandle better be ready for a major. Hope for the best but know the top of the scale potential is there.

We should never turn our backs on anything coming from this direction. Stay vigilant but know we are in a good place right now.

And looking at those ensembles on the west half of GEFS/EPS are generally more weaker because that sort of movement riding more perpendicular to those mid and upper level winds where as those that move more NNE/NE are parallel with the flow and strengthen more. A more western storm would be weaker due to the upper level flow not being oriented in a friendly way.

Totally agree. When it comes down to it, you are really praying for the preservation of the life you have built where you’re at; not destruction for others. Anyone with a rational bone in their body should see that. I don’t want it to come here, but I would hate to see it for anyone else as well. It’s just the nature of the beast. Ultimately, it’s going to do whatever it’s going to do and all of the wishing becomes a moot point anyway. I think best case scenario in general will be for a tropical storm or weak hurricane (relatively speaking) to quickly move inland and move on. Only time will tell.

I think to get any sort of major hurricane on par with Michael we need it to enter the Gulf as a hurricane which seems highly unlikely at this juncture. Michael was a mid grade Cat 2 as he entered the Gulf. An Idalia scenario she was a cat 1 entering the Gulf which is more of a realistic ceiling. But yeah I’m thinking that area is the most likely to see a landfall out of this.