[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath

Check out the current 500mb heights with water vapor. Her path is laid out.

With her outflow well into Georgia, I'm sure it's a mixture of both. Winds out the southeast at the surface and southwest aloft.

From the NWS Tallahassee

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851
FXUS62 KTAE 252302
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
702 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

...HELENE TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE BIG BEND COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE
LATE THURSDAY...
...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Thursday night)
Issued at 332 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

A cold front, slowly moving across the region today, will induce
some showers and storms across the region through this evening.
The upper-level trough associated with this cold front will help
slingshot a tropical cyclone north across the region tomorrow.

All eyes then turn to Hurricane Helene. Helene is currently just
offshore, to the northeast of the Yucatan Peninsula and has been
improving its structure over the last few hours with a ragged eye
trying to take shape. Helene is expected to continue intensifying
while also expanding the size of its wind field. It is likely
that Helene will make landfall along the Florida Big Bend coast
tomorrow as a powerful Major Hurricane. Just before landfall,
Helene`s 34-knot (tropical storm force) wind field is expected to
extend 200-250 miles to the north and east from the center, and
around 110 miles to the south and west of the center. This large
wind field will allow for hours of continuous strong onshore wind
to contribute to high storm surge. This is a reminder that threats
associated with Hurricanes/Tropical systems extend far beyond the
center, and well outside the forecast cone.

Storm Surge: The most dangerous hazard associated with
Hurricanes. There is increasing confidence of Catastrophic and/or
potentially Unsurvivable storm surge for Apalachee Bay. Storm
surge may begin to arrive as early as late Wednesday night ahead
of the strongest winds, building through landfall. Current storm
surge values across the Bay are: Carrabelle to Suwannee River, 15
to 20 feet. Apalachicola to Carrabelle, 10 to 15 feet. Indian
Pass to Apalachicola, 6 to 10 feet. Mexico Beach to Indian Pass,
3 to 5 feet. Rest of Bay county, 1 to 3 feet.

REMINDER: storm surge DOES NOT include wave action, when
including waves on top of storm surge inundation, these values
could be higher, potentially allowing for greater inland
penetration. The threat to life is significant.

Winds: While exact impacts will be heavily dependent on the
eventual track, expect Catastrophic wind damage near the eventual
landfall point and inland along the track. Widespread and
prolonged power outages, damage to critical infrastructure,
Catastrophic damage to trees and powerlines, widespread
inaccessibility due to blocked roads, and damage to well-built
structures will all be possible, particularly close to and east of
the track. Power outages will likely last days, if not weeks,
near where it makes landfall. Due to the quick forward speed of
Helene, significant wind damage may extend well into Georgia.

Flooding Rain: Widespread heavy rainfall is forecast with this
system and will likely lead to both flash flooding and riverine
flooding. Heavy rainfall is possible ahead of Helene today, perhaps
enhancing the overall flooding threat on Thursday as Helene moves
through the area. Even though the hurricane is forecast to be moving
quickly, very high rainfall rates and already saturated soils in some
places will still combine for a serious flood risk across the region.
Be prepared for flash flooding and quickly rising rivers and streams.
A Flood Watch is in effect for the entire area. The WPC currently
has most of the region within a Moderate Risk of Excessive
Rainfall (level 3 of 4) and a High Risk of Excessive Rainfall
(level 4 of 4) near where Helene eventually makes landfall.

Tornadoes: While not the highest threat with this system, several
tornadoes will be possible, generally along the east of the
eventual track.

PLEASE heed all local evacuation orders by your local officials,
Helene has the potential to become a generational storm and the
threat it poses is significant to life and property. Every attempt
should be made to finish all preparations by sunset tonight as
tropical storm force winds begin to impact the region tomorrow

That graphic is awesome. Which program did you use for this?