[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath

Nola Mike
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Posts: 346
Location: Hammond/Robert

[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 25, 2024 23:27:03 GMT -6 via mobile Mike T.- Chackbay,La, RowBear, and 1 more like this

Quote

Post by Nola Mike on Sept 25, 2024 23:27:03 GMT -6

Sept 25, 2024 21:54:39 GMT -6 Math Professor said:

The sad thing is that if it doesn’t get as strong as they expected, people will say that it was overhyped and “much ado about nothing”. The NHC has every reason to put everyone on notice that Helene could undergo RE given the conditions in place. If it doesn’t, then just consider it a blessing. It’s sort of like the old saying “better to have it and not need it than to need it and not have it.” Prepare for the worst and hope for the best kinda thing. I just really hope she takes longer to get her act together for the sake of the folks in the Big Bend.

I feel for the NHC and local mets everywhere. You’re going to be blamed by a general population who only wants to know exactly what’s going to happen to them and only them in their neighborhood for one of two reasons.
Either you didn’t sound the alarm of how serious the situation could be or you sounded the alarm and by the grace of God, the area was spared the worst case scenario based on scientific models and they call you a fear mongerer.

I am extremely thankful for Zack’s broadcasts and all of the administration and pros on this site. I, like all of us here, wanted to educate ourselves so that we can make the best decisions for our families and not rely on the layers of government to make a decision.

Hoping everyone in Florida is spared as much as possible. Good luck to everyone in the storm’s path!

Last Edit: Sept 25, 2024 23:29:35 GMT -6 by Nola Mike

matt GCWX Supporter Posts: 317	[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 25, 2024 23:37:16 GMT -6 Math Professor likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by matt on Sept 25, 2024 23:37:16 GMT -6 New recon plane is about to fly through the center soon.

Math Professor
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Posts: 136
Location: Panama City, FL

[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 25, 2024 23:59:19 GMT -6

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Post by Math Professor on Sept 25, 2024 23:59:19 GMT -6

BULLETIN

Hurricane Helene Intermediate Advisory Number 11A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024

100 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...HELENE MOVING NORTHWARD AND EXPECTED TO BRING CATASTROPHIC WINDS

AND STORM SURGE TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...

...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO

COMPLETION...

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...23.7N 86.5W

ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA

ABOUT 425 MI...680 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.67 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...

* Mexico Beach eastward and southward to Flamingo

* Tampa Bay

* Charlotte Harbor

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Anclote River to Mexico Beach

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* Englewood to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Florida Keys, including the Dry Tortugas

* Flamingo to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay

* West of Mexico Beach to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line

* Flamingo northward to Little River Inlet

* Lake Okeechobee

* Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening

inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,

during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a

depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather

Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons

located within these areas should take all necessary actions to

protect life and property from rising water and the potential for

other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other

instructions from local officials.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Helene was located

near latitude 23.7 North, longitude 86.5 West. Helene is moving

toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northward or

north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected

during the next 36 hours. On the forecast track, Helene will move

across the eastern Gulf of Mexico today and cross the Florida Big

Bend coast this evening. After landfall, Helene is expected to

turn northwestward and slow down over the Tennessee Valley on

Friday and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher

gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Helene is expected to be a

major hurricane when it reaches the Florida Big Bend coast this

evening. Weakening is expected after landfall, but Helene's fast

forward speed will allow strong, damaging winds, especially in

gusts, to penetrate well inland across the southeastern United

States, including over the higher terrain of the southern

Appalachians.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from

the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345

miles (555 km). The NOAA automated station at Sand Key, Florida

recently reported sustained winds of 45 mph (72 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure from Air Force Reserve

Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 971 mb (28.67 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key Messages for Helene can be found in the Tropical Cyclone

Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC

and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and

the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded

by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could

reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated

areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Carrabelle, FL to Suwannee River, FL...15-20 ft

Apalachicola, FL to Carrabelle, FL...10-15 ft

Suwannee River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...10-15 ft

Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...8-12 ft

Indian Pass, FL to Apalachicola, FL...6-10 ft

Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...5-8 ft

Tampa Bay...5-8 ft

Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...4-7 ft

East of Mexico Beach, FL to Indian Pass, FL...3-5 ft

Englewood, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft

Charlotte Harbor...3-5 ft

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

Last Edit: Sept 26, 2024 0:04:44 GMT -6 by Math Professor

trethe
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Posts: 1,425

[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 26, 2024 2:15:06 GMT -6 lisamath and NavyMom: WBR Parish like this

Quote

Post by trethe on Sept 26, 2024 2:15:06 GMT -6

I believe we are beginning to see the beginning of the Rapid Intensification phase of Helene. Satellite imagery is improving (in not a good way) by the hour.

Edit: Also, the recent second pass by the current recon. found her pressure 3mb lower than its' initial pass. 970 down to 967.

Last Edit: Sept 26, 2024 2:23:07 GMT -6 by trethe

trethe
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Posts: 1,425

[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 26, 2024 2:41:32 GMT -6

Quote

Post by trethe on Sept 26, 2024 2:41:32 GMT -6

Sept 26, 2024 2:15:06 GMT -6 trethe said:

I believe we are beginning to see the beginning of the Rapid Intensification phase of Helene. Satellite imagery is improving (in not a good way) by the hour.

Edit: Also, the recent second pass by the current recon. found her pressure 3mb lower than its' initial pass. 970 down to 967.

She is now traversing the area in the gulf where the "loop current" is located.

hurricaner Moderator Board Member Posts: 5,167 Staff Member	[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 26, 2024 2:47:18 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by hurricaner on Sept 26, 2024 2:47:18 GMT -6 Latest pressure reported from recon is 967mb.
	GCWX Board Member

trethe
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Posts: 1,425

[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 26, 2024 2:52:43 GMT -6

Quote

Post by trethe on Sept 26, 2024 2:52:43 GMT -6

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Helene Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
400 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...HELENE STRENGTHENING AND EXPECTED TO BRING CATASTROPHIC WINDS
AND STORM SURGE TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION...

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.2N 86.2W
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 385 MI...625 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES

Last Edit: Sept 26, 2024 2:53:24 GMT -6 by trethe

trethe
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Posts: 1,425

[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 26, 2024 3:17:26 GMT -6 courtney0726 likes this

Quote

Post by trethe on Sept 26, 2024 3:17:26 GMT -6

In the NHC discussion, they indicate the hurricane is likely to strengthen to 115 mph in the next 12 hours with additional strengthening during the next 6 hours prior to landfall. Be careful when looking at the wind speed plots as they go in 12-hour increments, therefore the next plot after the 115-mph point, the system is inland. As discussed previously, I wish there was a forecasted wind speed plot at landfall and not just at the time increments. They also noted the following, "The main restraining factor on intensification is the current concentric eyewall status. All of the intensity guidance continues to forecast strengthening until landfall."

Last Edit: Sept 26, 2024 3:22:00 GMT -6 by trethe

trethe GCWX Supporter Posts: 1,425	[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 26, 2024 3:25:07 GMT -6 lisamath likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by trethe on Sept 26, 2024 3:25:07 GMT -6 See 963 on the latest pass by Recon. This is a 7 mb drop in the past 2 hours. Also seeing stronger flight level windspeed barbs in the southeast quadrant. Edit: Adjusted to 965... 5 mb drop...
	Last Edit: Sept 26, 2024 4:04:50 GMT -6 by trethe

Zack Fradella Administrator Chairman \| Founder Posts: 8,546 Staff Member	[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 26, 2024 3:42:17 GMT -6 trethe and shompy64 like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Zack Fradella on Sept 26, 2024 3:42:17 GMT -6 Yea, pressure falls are increasing. IR satellite is improving. It won't be long before we really pop an eye.
	Zack Fradella FOX 8 Meteorologist StormCast - Gulf Coast Weather Founder For Regular Weather Updates Like Me On Facebook Meteorologist Zack Fradella Follow me on Twitter & Instagram @zackfradellawx

trethe
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Posts: 1,425

[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 26, 2024 3:49:22 GMT -6

Quote

Post by trethe on Sept 26, 2024 3:49:22 GMT -6

I wanted to get an idea of how Helene compares with Ida. This excerpt from the NHC report on Ida is interesting. Note how fast Ida strengthened. It will be very interesting to see how Helene compares to Ida...

"Ida began the second and more explosive intensification period when reconnaissance aircraft found Ida reaching category 3 hurricane status with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph (100 knots) by 1 AM CDT August 29th, and category 4 status by 2 AM CDT with winds of 130 mph (115 knots). Ida continued to strengthen with maximum sustained winds reaching 140 mph (120 knots) by 4 AM CDT, and 150 mph (130 knots) by 6 AM CDT. Reconnaissance aircraft found that Ida reached a minimum central pressure of 929 millibars (27.43 inches) around 7 AM CDT when the center of the eye was located about 50 miles southwest of the Mouth of the Mississippi River."

Edited to add: It will be interesting to see if Helene makes a similar jump in intensity.

Last Edit: Sept 26, 2024 3:56:20 GMT -6 by trethe

shompy64
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Posts: 330

[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 26, 2024 3:57:08 GMT -6 via mobile

Quote

Post by shompy64 on Sept 26, 2024 3:57:08 GMT -6

Sept 26, 2024 3:42:17 GMT -6 Zack Fradella said:

Yea, pressure falls are increasing. IR satellite is improving. It won't be long before we really pop an eye.

Yes, current satellite definitely shows a strengthening storm. Wonder how much she can wind up before running out of real estate. Hopefully, everyone in its path have prepared accordingly

trethe GCWX Supporter Posts: 1,425	[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 26, 2024 4:27:15 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by trethe on Sept 26, 2024 4:27:15 GMT -6 NOAA aircraft inbound towards the center from the east and Airforce aircraft inbound towards the center from the southwest for another fix.
	Last Edit: Sept 26, 2024 4:29:08 GMT -6 by trethe

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 67,639 Location: Ponchatoula, LA Staff Member	[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 26, 2024 4:31:41 GMT -6 shompy64 likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 26, 2024 4:31:41 GMT -6 Florida and Georgia have been dealing with heavy rain since yesterday. That's a LOT of rain to go through before damaging winds move in.
	Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App! NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

SKYSUMMIT
Administrator

President | Director of Operations

Posts: 67,639

Location: Ponchatoula, LA

Staff Member

[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 26, 2024 4:46:46 GMT -6

Quote

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 26, 2024 4:46:46 GMT -6

Tornado Watch Number 683
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
640 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Florida Peninsula
Coastal Waters

* Effective this Thursday morning and evening from 640 AM until
800 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
Several tornadoes likely

SUMMARY...In association with a strengthening Hurricane Helene,
conditions will become increasingly favorable for tornadoes today
across portions of the Florida Peninsula, in the presence of a very
moist air mass and strengthening low-level shear.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles
east and west of a line from 20 miles northeast of Ocala FL to 55
miles west southwest of Miami FL. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 0 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 16050.

...Guyer

Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com
United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore
Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX
Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App!
NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08
CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath

Post by Nola Mike on Sept 25, 2024 23:27:03 GMT -6

Post by matt on Sept 25, 2024 23:37:16 GMT -6

Post by Math Professor on Sept 25, 2024 23:59:19 GMT -6

Post by trethe on Sept 26, 2024 2:15:06 GMT -6

Post by trethe on Sept 26, 2024 2:41:32 GMT -6

Post by hurricaner on Sept 26, 2024 2:47:18 GMT -6

Post by trethe on Sept 26, 2024 2:52:43 GMT -6

Post by trethe on Sept 26, 2024 3:17:26 GMT -6

Post by trethe on Sept 26, 2024 3:25:07 GMT -6

Post by Zack Fradella on Sept 26, 2024 3:42:17 GMT -6

Post by trethe on Sept 26, 2024 3:49:22 GMT -6

Post by shompy64 on Sept 26, 2024 3:57:08 GMT -6

Post by trethe on Sept 26, 2024 4:27:15 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 26, 2024 4:31:41 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 26, 2024 4:46:46 GMT -6

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