[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath

KatG
Tropical Storm

Posts: 62

[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 26, 2024 13:44:05 GMT -6 via mobile gentizzy - PRC, MS, MobileWeatherWatcher, and 1 more like this

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Post by KatG on Sept 26, 2024 13:44:05 GMT -6

Sept 26, 2024 13:36:40 GMT -6 Nola Mike said:

Sept 26, 2024 13:32:34 GMT -6 MobileWeatherWatcher said:

Listening to Ryan Hall at my work desk. He says this is a completely different storm than it was two hours ago and the ceiling is quite high

same. Andy (meteorologist) was looking at drop from NE eyewall and the pressure was down to 956 and it wasn’t even close to the center yet.

Andy, Ryan, and crew give me peace of mind. "Don't be scared, be prepared."

Glad there are some Y'all fans here.

Kory
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Location: Metairie, LA

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[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 26, 2024 13:56:04 GMT -6 geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex likes this

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Post by Kory on Sept 26, 2024 13:56:04 GMT -6

Sept 26, 2024 13:42:41 GMT -6 Kory said:

951mb looks extrapolated which can run too low. I'd wait for a dropsonde but it continues to deepen for sure.

Welp...the dropsonde shows 952mb...

Located in Metairie, Louisiana.

MobileWeatherWatcher
Category 5

Posts: 3,041

[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 26, 2024 13:57:38 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by MobileWeatherWatcher on Sept 26, 2024 13:57:38 GMT -6

Sept 26, 2024 13:56:04 GMT -6 Kory said:

Sept 26, 2024 13:42:41 GMT -6 Kory said:

951mb looks extrapolated which can run too low. I'd wait for a dropsonde but it continues to deepen for sure.

Welp...the dropsonde shows 952mb...

Not good

nolasim
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Location: Algiers-West Bank

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[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 26, 2024 14:02:29 GMT -6 geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex and Shibumi-Mandeville I-12/Hwy59 like this

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Post by nolasim on Sept 26, 2024 14:02:29 GMT -6

Sept 26, 2024 13:57:38 GMT -6 MobileWeatherWatcher said:

Sept 26, 2024 13:56:04 GMT -6 Kory said:

Welp...the dropsonde shows 952mb...

Not good

If we were to go by Dvorak (I personally do not have the expertise to go by anything else), then it is up to about 125 mph per that measurement.

My way of thinking in these matters may certainly be bass ackwards of course.

"Let's work the problem, people; don't make things worse by guessing!"

Gene Krantz, Flight Director, Apollo 13

prairievilledog Category 3 Posts: 773	[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 26, 2024 14:05:01 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by prairievilledog on Sept 26, 2024 14:05:01 GMT -6 The pressure dropped 7mb in less than 2 hours; holy millibars Batman. This baby is getting stronger by the minute.

prairievilledog
Category 3

Posts: 773

[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 26, 2024 14:08:53 GMT -6

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Post by prairievilledog on Sept 26, 2024 14:08:53 GMT -6

Dvorak Current Intensity Chart

CI MWS MWS MSLP MSLP Saffir-Simpson

6 115 KTS 132 MPH 948 mb (114-135 KTS)

So this is from the Dvorak Intensity Chart meaning the winds should be estimated about 132mph based on a reading of 948mb which seems like going to happen by the next pass by recon.

6.5 127 KTS 146 MPH 935 mb This would be the next Dvorak CI based on a reading of 935mb.

nolasim Moderator Posts: 6,930 Location: Algiers-West Bank Staff Member	[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 26, 2024 14:11:35 GMT -6 Math Professor likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by nolasim on Sept 26, 2024 14:11:35 GMT -6 One good thing is that it is traveling at 21 mph. It's not going to be like some storms that just sit there.
	"Let's work the problem, people; don't make things worse by guessing!" Gene Krantz, Flight Director, Apollo 13

Mike Naso Official Contributor Posts: 1,294	[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 26, 2024 14:16:17 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Mike Naso on Sept 26, 2024 14:16:17 GMT -6 Sept 26, 2024 13:35:18 GMT -6 Zack Fradella said: And for the second time in two weeks, why did they back off on intensity? Yeah that will suck for their intensity verification in the final report next year.

MobileWeatherWatcher Category 5 Posts: 3,041	[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 26, 2024 14:24:20 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by MobileWeatherWatcher on Sept 26, 2024 14:24:20 GMT -6 Sept 26, 2024 14:11:35 GMT -6 nolasim said: One good thing is that it is traveling at 21 mph. It's not going to be like some storms that just sit there. Forward speed reminds me of Opal

hurricaner
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[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 26, 2024 14:27:19 GMT -6

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Post by hurricaner on Sept 26, 2024 14:27:19 GMT -6

Hurricane Helene Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
400 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...HELENE ACCELERATING TOWARD THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OCCURING ACROSS MOST OF THE WEST
COAST OF FLORIDA...

Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the
minimum pressure of Helene has decreased to 951 mb (28.08 inches).

A Weatherflow station at Egmont Channel at the entrance to Tampa Bay
recently measured a sustained wind of 54 mph (87 km/h) and a gust to
68 mph (109 km/h).

The Sarasota-Bradenton International Airport recently measured a
sustained wind of 43 mph (69 km/h) and a gust to 63 mph (101 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 400 PM EDT...2000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 84.7W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES

Last Edit: Sept 26, 2024 14:28:04 GMT -6 by hurricaner

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prairievilledog
Category 3

Posts: 773

[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 26, 2024 14:34:10 GMT -6

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Post by prairievilledog on Sept 26, 2024 14:34:10 GMT -6

NOAA buoy Station 42036 is directly in the path of the eye. Current observations:

Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 100 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 33.0 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 40.8 kts
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.19 in / 988.6 mb
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.25 in ( Falling Rapidly )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 82.2 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 80.8 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 93.9 °F
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 36.9 kts

Wave Height (WVHT): 18.7 ft

Last Edit: Sept 26, 2024 14:38:39 GMT -6 by prairievilledog

hurricaner
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[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 26, 2024 14:48:40 GMT -6

Quote

Post by hurricaner on Sept 26, 2024 14:48:40 GMT -6

Hurricane Helene Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
500 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...HELENE IS A VERY DANGEROUS AND LARGE MAJOR HURRICANE...
...DAMAGING HURRICANE WINDS AND CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND THIS EVENING...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.9N 84.6W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.09 INCHES

Last Edit: Sept 26, 2024 14:49:14 GMT -6 by hurricaner

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hurricaner
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[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 26, 2024 14:50:38 GMT -6

Quote

Post by hurricaner on Sept 26, 2024 14:50:38 GMT -6

The hurricane has intensified by 30 kt since sunrise and given the
conducive environmental conditions and contracting inner core, it
seems likely that Helene will be at or very near category 4 strength
when it makes landfall in the Florida Big Bend this evening.
The fast forward speed when Helene moves inland will result in a
far inland penetration of strong winds over parts of the
southeastern United States, including strong gusts over the higher
terrain of the southern Appalachians. Accordingly, a
higher-than-normal gust factor is indicated in the official forecast
while Helene is inland.

Last Edit: Sept 26, 2024 14:51:15 GMT -6 by hurricaner

GCWX Board Member

nolasim Moderator Posts: 6,930 Location: Algiers-West Bank Staff Member	[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 26, 2024 14:58:25 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by nolasim on Sept 26, 2024 14:58:25 GMT -6 It may well get to 130 mph by landfall or stronger. My goodness.
	"Let's work the problem, people; don't make things worse by guessing!" Gene Krantz, Flight Director, Apollo 13

Dutar76
GCWX Supporter

Posts: 861

[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath Sept 26, 2024 15:04:23 GMT -6 via mobile

Quote

Post by Dutar76 on Sept 26, 2024 15:04:23 GMT -6

Sept 26, 2024 14:11:35 GMT -6 nolasim said:

One good thing is that it is traveling at 21 mph. It's not going to be like some storms that just sit there.

Does t that 21mph add to the wind speed in the direction its heading?

lencast: I am in Jacksonville, and trying to drive back to New Orleans. Does anyone here know if the I-10 is passable in Lake City and Tallahassee. Sept 27, 2024 5:19:03 GMT -6

tcane: This sure looks like it dies quickly. maybe falling apart before metro New Orleans? Just looking at the lat dozen posts and images here. Sept 10, 2024 11:26:27 GMT -6

jenniqtip: I donate every year. 😀ju sry as soon as the first area of interest pops up!! I rarely post though so the tag isn’t necessary. Just know I appreciate everything you do!! Jul 7, 2024 12:53:12 GMT -6

[H] HURRICANE HELENE - Discussion & Aftermath

Post by KatG on Sept 26, 2024 13:44:05 GMT -6

Post by Kory on Sept 26, 2024 13:56:04 GMT -6

Post by MobileWeatherWatcher on Sept 26, 2024 13:57:38 GMT -6

Post by nolasim on Sept 26, 2024 14:02:29 GMT -6

Post by prairievilledog on Sept 26, 2024 14:05:01 GMT -6

Post by prairievilledog on Sept 26, 2024 14:08:53 GMT -6

Post by nolasim on Sept 26, 2024 14:11:35 GMT -6

Post by Mike Naso on Sept 26, 2024 14:16:17 GMT -6

Post by MobileWeatherWatcher on Sept 26, 2024 14:24:20 GMT -6

Post by hurricaner on Sept 26, 2024 14:27:19 GMT -6

Post by prairievilledog on Sept 26, 2024 14:34:10 GMT -6

Post by hurricaner on Sept 26, 2024 14:48:40 GMT -6

Post by hurricaner on Sept 26, 2024 14:50:38 GMT -6

Post by nolasim on Sept 26, 2024 14:58:25 GMT -6

Post by Dutar76 on Sept 26, 2024 15:04:23 GMT -6

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