[H]HURRICANE MILTON - GULF OF MEXICO

Agree. For all of us on along the Gulf Coast. Insurance is already out of reach for many people. Not to mention the emotional toll this takes. 

If you can get to New Orleans I have a place for you to stay which is pet friendly. No cost to you. Just let me know. 

That is the kindest offer and thank you so much! I love this group so much! My house is not in an evacuation so but I’m close enough to the evacuation zones and with this coming in as a 3 currently or 4 possibly I really need to get my 75 year old mom and my daughter and get on the road with my dogs.

I will keep you updated and again thank you so much!

Tropical Storm Milton Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024


...MILTON EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN QUICKLY...
...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS INCREASING FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST...



SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 95.1W
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 860 MI...1385 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:


The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Celestun to Cancun


Milton will likely steadily strengthen during the next few days as
it moves over the very warm Gulf of Mexico waters, remains in a
moist air mass, and in a diffluent and low to moderate wind shear
environment. The big question is how quickly and by how much will
the storm intensify. There is a big spread in the intensity
models, with the hurricane regional models notably above the
global and statistical-dynamical models. The new intensity
forecast is a little higher than the previous one and in good
agreement with the HCCA and IVCN aids. It is hoped that the models
will come into better agreement tomorrow after ingesting some of the
Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS


INIT 06/0300Z 22.9N 95.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 23.0N 94.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 23.0N 93.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 23.1N 92.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 23.3N 90.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 08/1200Z 23.9N 88.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 25.3N 86.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 28.2N 82.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 11/0000Z 30.8N 76.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

120 MPH. Woof

Hurricane models have this peaking just north of the Yucatan and unraveling fast as it approaches the coast. Euro looks weaker and more south. GFS has a pretty good track record this season in the Gulf and is still stronger and more north toward Tampa with no rapid weakening as it landfalls like the HAFS.