[H]HURRICANE MILTON - GULF OF MEXICO

Remnants/Dissipated

isaactheterrible_ EBR Parish GCWX Supporter Posts: 780	[H]HURRICANE MILTON - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 26, 2024 22:41:02 GMT -6 via mobile HarahanTim-Now in Gallatin, TN likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by isaactheterrible_ EBR Parish on Sept 26, 2024 22:41:02 GMT -6 0z GFS still in fantasyland tho 0z [
	Last Edit: Oct 12, 2024 11:20:37 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT

swla6 Tropical Storm Posts: 96	[H]HURRICANE MILTON - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 26, 2024 22:44:20 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by swla6 on Sept 26, 2024 22:44:20 GMT -6 Sept 26, 2024 22:41:02 GMT -6 isaactheterrible_ EBR Parish said: 0z GFS still in fantasyland tho With a stall and back into the gulf heading southwest along the coastline then east back through the gulf lol
	Last Edit: Sept 26, 2024 22:47:38 GMT -6 by swla6

grisairgasm GCWX Supporter Posts: 5,866	[H]HURRICANE MILTON - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 26, 2024 22:45:31 GMT -6 trueblue, Mike T.- Chackbay,La, and 7 more like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by grisairgasm on Sept 26, 2024 22:45:31 GMT -6 Yep. Hopefully. But I’m tired of looking at this model shit. Fall please?

grisairgasm GCWX Supporter Posts: 5,866	[H]HURRICANE MILTON - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 26, 2024 22:46:56 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by grisairgasm on Sept 26, 2024 22:46:56 GMT -6 Didn’t see that retrograde movement. Thanks for the graphic. Shoot me please.

verticalnogo Tropical Low Posts: 14	[H]HURRICANE MILTON - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 26, 2024 23:28:20 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by verticalnogo on Sept 26, 2024 23:28:20 GMT -6 Please tell me this is not real…maybe I’m on that “predictions” thread for folks like me. 😫😢

homeymandeville
Category 5

Posts: 1,517

[H]HURRICANE MILTON - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 27, 2024 1:43:45 GMT -6 via mobile

Quote

Post by homeymandeville on Sept 27, 2024 1:43:45 GMT -6

GFS has been the best (winner) most accurate this season thus far. Zack even mentioned at how well the GFS has done compared to the EURO this season and he has been wondering why so to speak. So we shall see. too far out at this point though. At least that is my opinion. ZERO (nada) has even formed!

Last Edit: Sept 27, 2024 1:45:16 GMT -6 by homeymandeville

homeymandeville
Category 5

Posts: 1,517

[H]HURRICANE MILTON - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 27, 2024 2:03:45 GMT -6 via mobile

Quote

Post by homeymandeville on Sept 27, 2024 2:03:45 GMT -6

Sept 26, 2024 22:46:56 GMT -6 grisairgasm said:

Didn’t see that retrograde movement. Thanks for the graphic. Shoot me please.

SLOW mover. Moves off the YP on 10/3 and landfalls 3 days later in SELA. Bounces back (southwest) into the GOM. Then slides east just off the La coast eventually moving ENE and making its final but 2nd landfall guess where? Just about where Helene made landfall. Talk about a mess if this played out. My goodness.

Zack Fradella Administrator Chairman \| Founder Posts: 8,546 Staff Member	[H]HURRICANE MILTON - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 27, 2024 4:24:07 GMT -6 lisamath likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Zack Fradella on Sept 27, 2024 4:24:07 GMT -6 One thing I'm noticing with the GFS is how small the circulation is that's being modeled. That could make the forecast tough as run-to-run consistency will jump quite a bit on intensity.
	Zack Fradella FOX 8 Meteorologist StormCast - Gulf Coast Weather Founder For Regular Weather Updates Like Me On Facebook Meteorologist Zack Fradella Follow me on Twitter & Instagram @zackfradellawx

SKYSUMMIT
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Posts: 67,639

Location: Ponchatoula, LA

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[H]HURRICANE MILTON - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 27, 2024 5:48:20 GMT -6 lisamath likes this

Quote

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 27, 2024 5:48:20 GMT -6

Western Caribbean:
An area of low pressure could form over the western Caribbean Sea by
the middle of next week. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for slow development thereafter while the system moves
generally northwestward, potentially entering the Gulf of Mexico by
the end of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Last Edit: Sept 27, 2024 6:04:31 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT

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fleurdelisa-Folsom, LA GCWX Supporter Posts: 131	[H]HURRICANE MILTON - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 27, 2024 5:52:43 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by fleurdelisa-Folsom, LA on Sept 27, 2024 5:52:43 GMT -6 Fun times . . .

Zack Fradella Administrator Chairman \| Founder Posts: 8,546 Staff Member	[H]HURRICANE MILTON - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 27, 2024 6:04:15 GMT -6 xty624, lisamath, and 1 more like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Zack Fradella on Sept 27, 2024 6:04:15 GMT -6 The signal is not a guarantee just yet. We will see how things trend over the weekend.
	Zack Fradella FOX 8 Meteorologist StormCast - Gulf Coast Weather Founder For Regular Weather Updates Like Me On Facebook Meteorologist Zack Fradella Follow me on Twitter & Instagram @zackfradellawx

homeymandeville
Category 5

Posts: 1,517

[H]HURRICANE MILTON - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 27, 2024 6:08:38 GMT -6 via mobile

Quote

Post by homeymandeville on Sept 27, 2024 6:08:38 GMT -6

Sept 27, 2024 4:24:07 GMT -6 Zack Fradella said:

One thing I'm noticing with the GFS is how small the circulation is that's being modeled. That could make the forecast tough as run-to-run consistency will jump quite a bit on intensity.

What is interesting is looking at the WV imagery it has a huge moisture envelope to form from. It takes up the entire central Caribbean from just inland of the coast of Venezuela all the way to Cuba as a large gyre. I wonder if the GFS is not seeing this all that well for a size forecast.

Last Edit: Sept 27, 2024 6:10:31 GMT -6 by homeymandeville

Nathan Category 1 Posts: 125	[H]HURRICANE MILTON - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 27, 2024 6:11:28 GMT -6 via mobile parrotfish likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Nathan on Sept 27, 2024 6:11:28 GMT -6 The models are really all over the place with this system.

Kory
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Posts: 1,613

Location: Metairie, LA

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[H]HURRICANE MILTON - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 27, 2024 6:16:39 GMT -6 via mobile fleurdelisa-Folsom, LA likes this

Quote

Post by Kory on Sept 27, 2024 6:16:39 GMT -6

Sept 27, 2024 6:11:28 GMT -6 Nathan said:

The models are really all over the place with this system.

That’s to be expected when any potential Gulf landfall is 7+ days away. Every reliable operational develops a low pressure. It looks like a tropical wave might become a part of the development equation unlike Helene.

Located in Metairie, Louisiana.

stormgal GCWX Supporter Posts: 157	[H]HURRICANE MILTON - GULF OF MEXICO Sept 27, 2024 7:20:53 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by stormgal on Sept 27, 2024 7:20:53 GMT -6 Of course this happens when I leave on a cruise on the 3rd out of Galveston to Cozumel!

lencast: I am in Jacksonville, and trying to drive back to New Orleans. Does anyone here know if the I-10 is passable in Lake City and Tallahassee. Sept 27, 2024 5:19:03 GMT -6

tcane: This sure looks like it dies quickly. maybe falling apart before metro New Orleans? Just looking at the lat dozen posts and images here. Sept 10, 2024 11:26:27 GMT -6

jenniqtip: I donate every year. 😀ju sry as soon as the first area of interest pops up!! I rarely post though so the tag isn’t necessary. Just know I appreciate everything you do!! Jul 7, 2024 12:53:12 GMT -6

[H]HURRICANE MILTON - GULF OF MEXICO

Post by isaactheterrible_ EBR Parish on Sept 26, 2024 22:41:02 GMT -6

Post by swla6 on Sept 26, 2024 22:44:20 GMT -6

Post by grisairgasm on Sept 26, 2024 22:45:31 GMT -6

Post by grisairgasm on Sept 26, 2024 22:46:56 GMT -6

Post by verticalnogo on Sept 26, 2024 23:28:20 GMT -6

Post by homeymandeville on Sept 27, 2024 1:43:45 GMT -6

Post by homeymandeville on Sept 27, 2024 2:03:45 GMT -6

Post by Zack Fradella on Sept 27, 2024 4:24:07 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Sept 27, 2024 5:48:20 GMT -6

Post by fleurdelisa-Folsom, LA on Sept 27, 2024 5:52:43 GMT -6

Post by Zack Fradella on Sept 27, 2024 6:04:15 GMT -6

Post by homeymandeville on Sept 27, 2024 6:08:38 GMT -6

Post by Nathan on Sept 27, 2024 6:11:28 GMT -6

Post by Kory on Sept 27, 2024 6:16:39 GMT -6

Post by stormgal on Sept 27, 2024 7:20:53 GMT -6

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