[H]HURRICANE MILTON - GULF OF MEXICO

Mike Naso
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[H]HURRICANE MILTON - GULF OF MEXICO Oct 8, 2024 23:56:36 GMT -6 geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex likes this

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Post by Mike Naso on Oct 8, 2024 23:56:36 GMT -6

Hurricane force winds still only extend out thirty miles from the center. Wow. I wonder if maybe it will stay smaller and stronger and further south rather than larger and weaker and further north?

trethe GCWX Supporter Posts: 1,422	[H]HURRICANE MILTON - GULF OF MEXICO Oct 9, 2024 2:19:46 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by trethe on Oct 9, 2024 2:19:46 GMT -6 He is visible (in range) on radar now.
	Last Edit: Oct 9, 2024 2:20:28 GMT -6 by trethe

trethe
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[H]HURRICANE MILTON - GULF OF MEXICO Oct 9, 2024 2:55:47 GMT -6

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Post by trethe on Oct 9, 2024 2:55:47 GMT -6

000
WTNT34 KNHC 090854
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
400 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024

...MILTON REMAINS A CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...
...FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE FLORIDA GULF COAST
LATE TONIGHT AS A DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE...

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 85.4W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM W OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...907 MB...26.78 INCHES

Last Edit: Oct 9, 2024 2:56:17 GMT -6 by trethe

trethe
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[H]HURRICANE MILTON - GULF OF MEXICO Oct 9, 2024 3:27:26 GMT -6

Quote

Post by trethe on Oct 9, 2024 3:27:26 GMT -6

From this morning's 4:00am NHC discussion...

"The NHC track forecast is nudged a
little to the north of the previous one to be in better agreement
with the latest models. It should be noted that this forecast is
based on the model fields, not the interpolated models which
appear to be too far south. Users are urged not to focus on the
exact landfall point as the average error at 24 hours is about 40
miles."

trethe GCWX Supporter Posts: 1,422	[H]HURRICANE MILTON - GULF OF MEXICO Oct 9, 2024 3:39:58 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by trethe on Oct 9, 2024 3:39:58 GMT -6 The eye sure does appear to me to be shrinking or collapsing. Another eyewall replacement cycle, perhaps? Edit: Definition of "Pinhole" on satellite...
	Last Edit: Oct 9, 2024 3:46:50 GMT -6 by trethe

Kory Moderator Posts: 1,582 Location: Metairie, LA Staff Member	[H]HURRICANE MILTON - GULF OF MEXICO Oct 9, 2024 4:11:11 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Kory on Oct 9, 2024 4:11:11 GMT -6 Starting to get hit by some strong SWerly shear on the order of 30-40kts. You can see the west side of the storm getting compressed at the moment.
	Located in Metairie, Louisiana.

NavyMom: WBR Parish
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[H]HURRICANE MILTON - GULF OF MEXICO Oct 9, 2024 4:12:31 GMT -6

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Post by NavyMom: WBR Parish on Oct 9, 2024 4:12:31 GMT -6

Oct 8, 2024 21:49:12 GMT -6 Alli_FL_Bigbend said:

Oct 8, 2024 21:47:33 GMT -6 NavyMom: WBR Parish said:

It looks like it could still be a Cat 4 pretty close to landfall. Or am I misreading their graphic?

It’s probably me. It was an intensity chart on tropical tidbits and I probably just looked at it wrong.

Correcting this to say it was definitely me reading the intensity wrong. Ty for pointing it out.

No, this wasn’t meant for you. The update I looked at from the NHC is what I was referring to. It does appear it’ll make landfall as a Cat 4, as of this moment.

“On Christ, the solid Rock I stand. Everything else is just sinking sand.”

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trethe
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[H]HURRICANE MILTON - GULF OF MEXICO Oct 9, 2024 4:15:32 GMT -6 Math Professor likes this

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Post by trethe on Oct 9, 2024 4:15:32 GMT -6

It will be such a close call into Tampa Bay. Probably won't know until it actually approaches the coastline. I guess models are kind of useless at this point when we are talking about such a small difference.

matt GCWX Supporter Posts: 317	[H]HURRICANE MILTON - GULF OF MEXICO Oct 9, 2024 4:18:29 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by matt on Oct 9, 2024 4:18:29 GMT -6 www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/current-weather-conditions

HarahanTim-Now in Gallatin, TN
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[H]HURRICANE MILTON - GULF OF MEXICO Oct 9, 2024 4:32:29 GMT -6

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Post by HarahanTim-Now in Gallatin, TN on Oct 9, 2024 4:32:29 GMT -6

Oct 9, 2024 3:39:58 GMT -6 trethe said:

The eye sure does appear to me to be shrinking or collapsing. Another eyewall replacement cycle, perhaps?

Edit: Definition of "Pinhole" on satellite...

The last 5 hours or so...

www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/conus_band.php?sat=G16&band=GEOCOLOR&length=48&dim=1

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SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 67,572 Location: Ponchatoula, LA Staff Member	[H]HURRICANE MILTON - GULF OF MEXICO Oct 9, 2024 4:34:44 GMT -6 NavyMom: WBR Parish likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Oct 9, 2024 4:34:44 GMT -6 This is expected, but here comes the watches:
	Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App! NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

SKYSUMMIT
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Location: Ponchatoula, LA

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[H]HURRICANE MILTON - GULF OF MEXICO Oct 9, 2024 4:43:24 GMT -6 NavyMom: WBR Parish likes this

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Post by SKYSUMMIT on Oct 9, 2024 4:43:24 GMT -6

Things continue to look much better for the Tampa area as it's looking like they'll have an offshore flow, but not looking good for places like Punta Gorda, Cape Coral and Naples as Milton continues to ride east of the forecast track. I wouldn't be surprised to see the higher surge forecast to be extended south.

Last Edit: Oct 9, 2024 4:43:53 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT

Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com
United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore
Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX
Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App!
NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08
CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

Kory
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[H]HURRICANE MILTON - GULF OF MEXICO Oct 9, 2024 4:56:00 GMT -6 via mobile NavyMom: WBR Parish likes this

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Post by Kory on Oct 9, 2024 4:56:00 GMT -6

Oct 9, 2024 4:43:24 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT said:

Things continue to look much better for the Tampa area as it's looking like they'll have an offshore flow, but not looking good for places like Punta Gorda, Cape Coral and Naples as Milton continues to ride east of the forecast track. I wouldn't be surprised to see the higher surge forecast to be extended south.

Yep, there’s a fine line with how to handle these storms with the public. For the longest it appeared the storm was gonna go right over or just north but now everything is looking just south. I don’t envy those people trying to get the public message out but with the Tampa mayor telling people “you are going to die” and then surge is minimal…it is really a tough messaging spot.

Located in Metairie, Louisiana.

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 67,572 Location: Ponchatoula, LA Staff Member	[H]HURRICANE MILTON - GULF OF MEXICO Oct 9, 2024 4:57:07 GMT -6 mesabassman and geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Oct 9, 2024 4:57:07 GMT -6 Milton is finally getting affected by wind shear. It's pretty evident on satellite as he's right side weighted.
	Buying or Selling Real Estate?--->scottguidry.com United Real Estate Partners - New Orleans / North Shore Scott Guidry, Realtor, ABR, AHWD, AWREP, C2EX Click HERE To Download My FREE MLS Touch App! NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

Kory Moderator Posts: 1,582 Location: Metairie, LA Staff Member	[H]HURRICANE MILTON - GULF OF MEXICO Oct 9, 2024 4:58:43 GMT -6 via mobile geo2 - Bush/Waldheim Metroplex likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Kory on Oct 9, 2024 4:58:43 GMT -6 Eye is really deteriorating on long range radar.
	Located in Metairie, Louisiana.

[H]HURRICANE MILTON - GULF OF MEXICO

Post by Mike Naso on Oct 8, 2024 23:56:36 GMT -6

Post by trethe on Oct 9, 2024 2:19:46 GMT -6

Post by trethe on Oct 9, 2024 2:55:47 GMT -6

Post by trethe on Oct 9, 2024 3:27:26 GMT -6

Post by trethe on Oct 9, 2024 3:39:58 GMT -6

Post by Kory on Oct 9, 2024 4:11:11 GMT -6

Post by NavyMom: WBR Parish on Oct 9, 2024 4:12:31 GMT -6

Post by trethe on Oct 9, 2024 4:15:32 GMT -6

Post by matt on Oct 9, 2024 4:18:29 GMT -6

Post by HarahanTim-Now in Gallatin, TN on Oct 9, 2024 4:32:29 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Oct 9, 2024 4:34:44 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Oct 9, 2024 4:43:24 GMT -6

Post by Kory on Oct 9, 2024 4:56:00 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Oct 9, 2024 4:57:07 GMT -6

Post by Kory on Oct 9, 2024 4:58:43 GMT -6

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