Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jun 5, 2007 2:15:23 GMT -6
SPC:
" ...LA COAST INTO SRN GA/NERN FL...
STORMS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING NEAR E-W ORIENTED SURFACE FRONT JUST
INLAND OF THE LA COAST INTO WRN FL PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING...
WHERE 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE IS IN PLACE. SREF MEAN FIELDS...ALONG
WITH OPERATIONAL RUC...INDICATE 50+ KT WLY MID LEVEL JET WILL
OVERSPREAD THE GA/FL BORDER REGION THROUGH 18Z. LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE AND LIMITED CAP ALONG THE FRONT...COMBINED WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY...WILL LIKELY FOCUS SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FL PANHANDLE INTO SRN GA/NRN FL AND POSSIBLY
FAR SRN SC BY THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY ACROSS
THIS REGION WILL LIKELY FORM INTO A MULTITUDE OF STORMS
MODES...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS/MULTICELL CLUSTERS...WITH PRIMARY
THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL SHEAR
WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG GIVEN 30-40 KT 1 KM WLY FLOW EVIDENT ON
VWPS THIS MORNING ACROSS NRN FL/SRN GA...SUGGESTING TORNADO
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST OVER THIS AREA. MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY ALSO PERSIST/DEVELOP ALONG SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING WWD ACROSS
FAR SRN AL/LA WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. "
HWO:
".DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK
THAT A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAIN."
DISCO:
"AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1001 AM CDT TUE JUN 5 2007
.CONVECTIVE UPDATE...
WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST THOUGH MAX TEMPS MAY
BE A BIT HIGH IF CONVECTION INITIATES BEFORE 84F. HAVE SEVERAL
FEATURES TO KEEP TRACK OF TODAY. RESIDUAL POST-CONVECTION WAKE
BOUNDARY STILL LINGERS NEAR THE AREA...CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
COASTAL MARSHES AND LOWER ATCHAFALAYA BAY WESTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL TEXAS COASTAL BEND. A STRONG BOWING MCS IS MOVING TOWARD
THE TEXAS COAST AND SHOULD EMERGE INTO THE WEST GULF WATERS BY 11
AM. IT WILL BE UTILIZING THE PRE-LAIN BOUNDARY DOWNSTREAM AS A
FOCUS MECHANISM THAT SHOULD ALSO GO INTO ENHANCING THE SEA BREEZE
LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. HAVE LOST
SATELLITE FEED SINCE ABOUT 830 AM SO UNABLE TO ADEQUATELY GUAGE
FORWARD SPEED OF THE MCS...BUT UPPER ANALYSIS SUGGESTS ABOUT A 45
TO 50 KT MOVEMENT. THIS WOULD PLACE THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
SYSTEM INTO THE ATCHAFALAYA BAY REGION AROUND 6 PM.
12Z ANALYSIS SHOWS A 75KT JET STREAK ALONG THE LOUISIANA AND
MISSISSIPPI COAST AND 70F DEWPOINTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA.
SURFACE BASED LIFTED INDICES ARE ALREADY -3 TO -6 WITH -10 IN THE
WEST GULF AHEAD OF THE MCS. CAPES ARE IN THE 2000 RANGE.
PRECIPITATION CALCULATOR/RICKS INDEX OUTPUT USING TRIGGER TEMP
84F/DEWPOINT 66F YIELDS POP 86 PERCENT...PCPN 4.74 INCHES WITH
POTENTIAL 7.65 INCHES BELOW 74F. RICKS INDEX 119 GIVE 9 PERCENT
CHANCE SEVERE WITH GULST POTENTIAL 43 KT /49 MPH/...FORECAST HAIL
SIZE 0.33 INCHES /PEA/ WITH A 64 VIL. ARKANSAS METHOD VIL OF THE
DAY 56 BUT HAIL-VIL NEEDS 69 FOR PENNY. VERY LOW THREAT FOR
TORNADOES BUT WATERSPOUTS FAVORABLE. TRAIN ECHO CHARACTERISTICS IN
ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING MCS MAY SEE SOME LOCALIZED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IN THE 5-7 INCH RANGE...BUT MOST QPF WILL PROBABLY BE MORE
LIKE 1-2 INCHES SOUTH OF THE LAKES TO THE COAST. NO WATCHES AT
THIS TIME...BUT WILL HASTEN ONE IF TRAIN CONDITIONS DEVELOP AND
PERSIST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE TECHNIQUE HAS WORKED ADMIRABLY THE
PAST TWO DAYS IN ACCURATELY DENOTING THE CONVECTIVE INTEGRITY OF
THE DAY. LET'S HOPE THE SKILL CARRIES OVER FOR TODAY."
