TROPICAL STORM ISAAC Discussion Thread #12

Definition of the NHC Track Forecast Cone

Definition:

The cone represents the probable track of the center of a tropical cyclone, and is formed by enclosing the area swept out by a set of circles (not shown) along the forecast track (at 12, 24, 36 hours, etc). The size of each circle is set so that two-thirds of historical official forecast errors over a 5-year sample fall within the circle. The circle radii defining the cones in 2011 for the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basins are given in the table below.

One can also examine historical tracks to determine how often the entire 5-day path of a cyclone remains completely within the area of the cone. This is a different perspective that ignores most timing errors. For example, a storm moving very slowly but in the expected direction would still be within the area of the cone, even though the track forecast error could be very large. Based on forecasts over the previous 5 years, the entire track of the tropical cyclone can be expected to remain within the cone roughly 60-70% of the time.

Radii of NHC forecast cone circles for 2011, based on error statistics from 2006-2010:

www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml

Plenty of strong tropical force winds in the NW, far, far away for the LLC. The kind of winds Nola should be experiencing as early as tomorrow morning.

URNT15 KNHC 271713
AF306 2709A ISAAC HDOB 12 20120827
170500 2732N 08724W 5332 05326 0229 +000 +000 050040 042 049 018 05
170530 2730N 08723W 5514 05059 0005 +000 +000 051039 043 053 013 05
170600 2728N 08723W 5623 04909 //// -003 //// 058040 043 /// /// 05
170630 2727N 08725W 5732 04755 0015 +010 +010 056040 041 /// /// 05
170700 2728N 08727W 5913 04478 0025 +020 +020 057043 046 /// /// 05
170730 2730N 08727W 6127 04213 0034 +040 +040 056038 042 044 006 01
170800 2731N 08726W 6318 03953 //// +039 //// 041039 043 051 020 01
170830 2733N 08725W 6478 03749 //// +042 //// 040040 042 050 021 05
170900 2733N 08724W 6661 03527 //// +049 //// 055042 044 /// /// 05
170930 2731N 08723W 6872 03265 //// +066 //// 049042 047 /// /// 05
171000 2730N 08724W 7078 03012 //// +072 //// 029045 050 /// /// 05
171030 2730N 08726W 7288 02761 //// +081 //// 021043 046 /// /// 05
171100 2732N 08726W 7527 02490 //// +089 //// 012043 045 /// /// 05
171130 2731N 08724W 7777 02221 //// +120 //// 011043 045 /// /// 05
171200 2729N 08724W 8001 01975 //// +120 //// 015048 051 /// /// 05
171230 2728N 08726W 8247 01721 //// +131 //// 016048 050 /// /// 05
171300 2730N 08726W 8418 01537 //// +139 //// 015049 049 /// /// 05
171330 2729N 08725W 8423 01534 //// +149 //// 014051 052 /// /// 05
171400 2727N 08724W 8437 01517 //// +137 //// 015055 056 /// /// 05
171430 2726N 08726W 8393 01569 //// +141 //// 013053 054 049 014 05
$$
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My wife works at a five & dime, ahem, dollar store and they said as long as there is no mandatory evacuation they are going to open. Well, good luck with that.

I really need HELP making a decision! I trust all of you!
My husband thinks we should leave, I don't want to... We live in Belle Chasse .... How bad do you think this will get. I have little children

That area fared a little better than on the island because the houses are alot newer and also most of them are much higher than those on that were on the island.

You know your house better than anyone, if you're closer to Hwy 90 and really high maybe you'll be OK, if you're closer to the Rigolets...........

Again, I don't think I'd ride it out over there. Too many things can happen. Someone's boat breaks loose and slams into your house and you're in big trouble. My FIL's house had a 40 ft shrimp boat jammed against the back of his house after Katrina. Luckily it didn't wipe it out, by being jammed where it was it actually helped protect it from everything else that was flying around.

Be safe, good luck and God Bless.

Mississippi is setting up for Contra flow on I 59 around Purvis. I just saw it for myself driving up to Laurel Hattiesburg.

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