Puerto Rico Weather

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Good morning. A Tropical Wave interacting with a trough will cause scattered showers starting on Wednesday.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
520 AM AST MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE WILL CUT OFF NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO AND COME TO WITHIN 320 MILES OF THE ISLANDS BY TUESDAY
EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN PULL NORTH SOMEWHAT BUT REMAIN
NEARBY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS...THE TROUGH OVER THE LOCAL AREA WILL DRIFT WEST
DURING THE WEEK THEN RE-FORM NORTH OF PUERTO RICO OVER THE
WEEKEND. MOISTURE IS SPARSE UNTIL A TROPICAL WAVE PASSES BY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL DOMINATE THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA OR GEORGIA
FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 10 DAYS. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE IN THE
SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN AND GENERATE MODERATE TO FRESH EAST SOUTHEAST
TRADE WINDS. A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 53 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.


&&

.DISCUSSION...FEW SHOWERS OCCURRED OVERNIGHT...BUT A LITTLE MORE
SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OCCURRING NORTH AND SOUTH OF VIEQUES BY 5 AM
AST. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS WILL COME ONSHORE IN EASTERN PUERTO
RICO BUT RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE SLIGHT. DRY MID LAYERS AND SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTINUE TODAY AND EXPECT SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO. EXPECT A LITTLE MORE
ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY AS THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES BUT MAIN
ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT HAPPEN UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BEST
DIVERGENCE ALOFT DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF THE WAVE WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL 20/06Z AND MAY NOT COINCIDE WITH
WAVE PASSAGE AND AFTERNOON HEATING MAXIMUM FOR MORE ENHANCED
ACTIVITY...BUT MOISTURE AND GOOD DYNAMICS PERSIST UNTIL AT LEAST
20/18Z AND SOME SHOWERS MAY PERSIST FOR A GOOD DEAL OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT
OVER PUERTO RICO. IN THE 00Z RUN OF THE GFS WINDS AT 850 MB
INCREASE TO 30 TO 35 KNOTS AT 19/18Z. THIS IS DOWN FROM THE 16/18Z
MODEL RUN WHICH SHOWED UP TO 40 KNOTS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON
20/06Z. THIS WOULD BE OF SOME CONCERN SINCE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
AT NO MORE THAN 15 KNOTS COULD PRODUCE GUSTS OF UP TO 50 KNOTS IN
ISOLATED AREAS SHOULD THEY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH. LIFTED INDICES OF
-5 TO -7 ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN NOW AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BEST
CAPE IS ABOUT 3250 BUT OCCURS ON TUESDAY...AND BULK RICHARDSON
NUMBER RELATIVELY HIGH AND MAY NOT SUPPORT WELL ORGANIZED DOWNDRAFT
ACTIVITY. WITH SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN THE FORECAST...WILL SAY
THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN GUSTS APPROACHING SEVERE
LIMITS. WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND LOOKS LESS ACTIVE...BUT WOULD EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR COND FOR ALL SITES THRU MON...THOUGH HZ FROM SAHARAN
DUST WILL AFFECT VSBY. WIND SFC TO 2K FT ESE 15-20 KT BCMG GENERALLY
FROM E.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WERE BELOW 6 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING AT BUOY 41043
AND MODEL SHOWS LITTLE INCREASE UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE EXPECT
NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES UNTIL WEDNESDAY. NEVERTHELESS SEAS OF 4
TO 6 FEET OR WINDS UP TO 20 KTS MAY BE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE WAVE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY HAVE
VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS DUE TO DRY AIR AND WINDS OF UP TO 30 KNOTS
IN THE LAYER FROM 700 TO 1000 MB.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 77 88 77 / 20 10 20 50
STT 88 77 88 78 / 20 10 20 60

Good morning. A Tropical Wave interacting with an upper trough will bring scattered showers to PR and adjacent islands starting on Wednesday.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
520 AM AST TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE IS ABOUT 290 MILES
NORTH OF SAINT THOMAS AND WILL MOVE NORTH AND SLIGHTLY WEST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING OVER HISPANIOLA. THIS
LOW WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK A RIDGE
WILL HAVE BUILT INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND EXTEND NORTH TO
FLORIDA.

AT MID LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH OVER AND NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MOVE
SLOWLY WEST AND WEAKEN ONLY TO RE-FORM OVER THE WEEKEND NORTH OF
THE AREA. LOWER PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENSCONCED TO THE NORTHEAST OF
PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK WHILE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL KEEP MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. A
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH SOME RAIN...AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AGAIN VERY FEW SHOWERS WERE SEEN OVERNIGHT IN
RELATIVELY BRISK EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW. DUST FROM THE SAHARA
WILL PERSIST TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT WITH THE COMING TROPICAL WAVE
SURFACE VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE SOMEWHAT. MOISTURE OVER THE
LOCAL AREA REACHED A MINIMUM OVERNIGHT AND WILL BEGIN TO
RECOVER...TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES BY 19/18Z. MOISTURE OVER SAINT
CROIX IS ALREADY APPROACHING 1.7 INCHES. THIS HERALDS THE TROPICAL
WAVE THAT WILL APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY WITH A DOUBLE TROUGH AT 700
MB. THE FIRST TROUGH WILL PASS OVER PUERTO RICO AT ABOUT 19/12Z
WHILE THE SECOND AND STRONGER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN
20/06 AND 20/12Z. THIS WAVE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A VERY STRONG
SOUTHEAST WIND SURGE OF BETWEEN 925 AND 700 MB...WHICH ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL REACH 40 KNOTS ACCORDING TO THE GFS AND CONFIRMED BY
THE WRF AND NMM MODELS IN BOTH THE 17/18Z AND 18/00Z GFS RUNS. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE LIKELY TO HAVE
VERY STRONG GUSTS WHICH COULD...IN A FEW PLACES...EXCEED SEVERE
LIMITS...ESPECIALLY IN THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. BECAUSE MOISTURE IN
THE LOWER LEVELS IS LIMITED AND FOLLOWED IMMEDIATELY BY MORE
SAHARAN AIR...HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE...AND
FLOODING...EXCEPT FOR LOCAL DRAINAGE PROBLEMS...IS NOT EXPECTED WITH
THIS WAVE. MOISTURE REACHES A MINIMUM ON FRIDAY EVENING AFTER THE
WAVE PASSES SIMILAR TO THE ONE THAT JUST OCCURRED. AT THAT TIME
WINDS WILL ABATE AND SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY. A SECOND
PULSE OF MOISTURE DEVELOPS EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR COND WILL CONTINUE XCP ON TUE AFTERNOON WHERE ISOLD/SCT
SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA OVR INTERIOR/WEST PR WI MTN OBSC ARE POSSIBLE.
WIND SFC TO 2K FT GENERALLY FROM EAST AT 10-20 KT. SAHARAN DUST AT
TIMES TO CAUSE SLIGHTLY LWR VSBY.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS OF 16 TO 20 KNOTS HAVE ALREADY BROUGHT SEAS OF 4
TO 6 FEET ACROSS THE LOCAL EXPOSED WATERS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE. SUSTAINED WINDS
WILL LIKELY REACH 20 TO 25 KNOTS...LOCALLY 30 KNOTS...WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BEGINNING IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
GUSTS IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH 45
KNOTS IN A FEW PLACES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 75 85 76 / 10 50 50 60
STT 88 77 85 76 / 10 50 50 40

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
348 PM AST TUE JUN 18 2013

PRC003-011-081-083-093-097-182145-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0146.130618T1948Z-130618T2145Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ANASCO PR-LARES PR-MARICAO PR-LAS MARIAS PR-AGUADA PR-MAYAGUEZ PR-
348 PM AST TUE JUN 18 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
ANASCO...LARES...MARICAO...LAS MARIAS...AGUADA AND MAYAGUEZ

* UNTIL 545 PM AST

* AT 345 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECTING THE ADVISORY AREA. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BRING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES IN SOME AREAS. THIS
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN
AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1821 6689 1815 6693 1814 6697 1817 6702
1817 6708 1820 6716 1823 6718 1824 6719
1834 6718

$$

FIGUEROA