Puerto Rico Weather

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Puerto Rico Weather Dec 17, 2014 4:09:46 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Dec 17, 2014 4:09:46 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
401 AM AST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUG THE AREA THU
AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD THU NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A 17/0450Z JSJ ACARS SHOWED THE PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS
COME DOWN TO 1.56 INCHES FROM 1.80 INCHES OBSERVED EARLIER AT
17/00Z ON JSJ RAOB. CONTINUED DRY AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY
ON NORTHEAST WINDS. SUBTROPICAL JET MAXIMA NE OF THE AREA WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA NEXT 36 HRS AS A
SHORTWAVE-TROUGH WITH AXIS OVR THE SERN GLFMEX SWINGS RAPIDLY
EWD. THIS WILL LEAD TO UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVR THE LOCAL AREA
THIS EVENING WITH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENING RAPIDLY
LEADING TO SHARP DRYING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THEN BUILDS THU NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK SUSTAINING A FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION LEADING TO FAIR WX CONDITIONS. OVERALL...VERY DRY WX
PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE COOL
THU MORNING AWAY FROM THE COAST UNDER VERY DRY AIR MASS WITH MID
50S LIKELY IN THE TYPICAL COOL SPOTS OF OROCOVIS...JAYUYA AND
ADJUNTAS. TEMPS WILL THEN REBOUND FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
UNDER BUILDING UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER...-SHRA POSSIBLE IN/AROUND THE VICINITY OF
TJSJ/TIST/TISX THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SCT/BKN LAYERS
AROUND FL100 ACROSS TISX AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TERMINALS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 17/12Z. E TO NE WINDS 5-15 KT BELOW
FL050...WITH STRONG WRLY FLOW ABV FL100.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AOB 15 KT THE ENTIRE 5-DAY FCST PERIOD. SEAS 4-6 FT
IN MIXED SWELLS AND WIND WAVES.

&&

.CLIMATE...A RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL OF 3.82 INCHES WAS SET
YDAY AT THE SJU LMM INT`L ARPT. THIS BROKE THE OLD RECORD OF 1.43
INCHES SET BACK IN 1910.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 75 82 75 / 10 10 10 10
STT 84 76 85 76 / 20 20 10 10

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Puerto Rico Weather Dec 18, 2014 4:03:15 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Dec 18, 2014 4:03:15 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
404 AM AST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK MOISTURE SURGE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH A SFC-700 MB TROF IN THE EASTERLIES. THIS WILL YIELD SHALLOW
ISOLD-SCT CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHEAST PR AND ST. CROIX TONIGHT AND EARLY FRI MORNING.
A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TODAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TROF AXIS IN COOL NORTHEAST FLOW. OTHERWISE...MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD FRIDAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY LEADING TO
STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND FAIR WX CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
-SHRA POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN PR AND USVI TERMINALS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS WITH SCT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KT
BELOW FL050.

&&

.MARINE...SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN AOB 15 KT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
SOMEWHAT CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY AS HIGH PRES WEAKENS.
SEAS 4-6 FT IN MIXED SWELLS AND WIND WAVES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 75 82 70 / 20 20 10 10
STT 84 76 85 73 / 20 20 10 10

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Puerto Rico Weather Dec 19, 2014 4:05:05 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Dec 19, 2014 4:05:05 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
409 AM AST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD THROUGH THE END
OF NEXT WEEK AND MAINTAIN FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. WEAK HIGH PRES
WILL BUILD OVR THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK THEN WEAKEN ON CHRISTMAS EVE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MORNING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
SFC-700 MB TROF CURRENTLY MOVING WWD THROUGH THE AREA ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY FIZZLE OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN ON
ENE WINDS. DRY AND PLEASANT WX TONIGHT AND SAT UNDER BUILDING
RIDGE SFC AND ALOFT. A MOISTURE SURGE IS FCST FOR SUN-SUN NIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF HIGHER TPW AIR JUST EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND POSSIBLY A WEAK TRADE WIND SURGE. DRIER AIR BEGINS TO
FILTER IN AGAIN MON THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENS FURTHER.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. PASSING -SHRA SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS...WITH VCSH
AFFECTING NORTHERN PR...USVI AND LEEWARD TERMINALS. SCT LAYERS
BETWEEN FL050-100. AFTER 16Z...VCSH POSSIBLE AT TJPS. EAST WINDS
BELOW FL100 AT 10-18 KT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AROUND 15 KT THROUGH TUE THEN DIMINISH CHRISTMAS
EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY AS HIGH PRES WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST. SEAS
4-6 FT IN MIXED SWELLS AND WIND WAVES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 70 84 72 / 10 0 20 20
STT 85 75 86 74 / 0 10 20 20

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Puerto Rico Weather Dec 20, 2014 4:53:17 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Dec 20, 2014 4:53:17 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
520 AM AST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SUSTAINING A TRADE WIND
CAP. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS WILL MAINTAIN A EAST-NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW OVER
THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS ALL LOCAL
ISLANDS TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SURROUNDING WATERS. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLANDS MOST OF THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...A BAND
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REACH THE USVI AND EASTERN PR LATE
SUNDAY...ALLOWING ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO FORM
NEAR OR OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DRIER
AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN AGAIN MON THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENS
FURTHER.

&&

AVIATION...SHALLOW/ISOLD SHRA BUT WL NOT LWR COND BLW VFR SAT-SUN.
WIND ENE 8-18 KT SFC-FL200 THRU SUN.

&&

.MARINE...LOCAL BUOYS ARE INDICATING SEAS 3-4 FT NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS AND BELOW 3 FT SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS. FOR
TODAY...NEARSHORE WINDS 10-20 KT MAINLY FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST
AND SEAS UP TO 5 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 71 83 72 / 20 20 20 20
STT 86 74 86 75 / 20 20 20 20

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Puerto Rico Weather Dec 21, 2014 4:41:34 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Dec 21, 2014 4:41:34 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
634 AM AST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH MODERATE TRADE WINDS. MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED OVER LAND AREAS
OVERNIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ONE OR TWO BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO. PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS DURING THE NIGHT TIME PERIOD AND ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS CAN BRIEFLY
AFFECT ST. CROIX.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE BEST DAY FOR
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER MUCH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL BE
ON TUESDAY...AS LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WIND SURGE WITH NORMAL PWAT
VALUES ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...DRYING IS EXPECTED QUICKLY BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN AT A
MINIMUM ON MOST OF THE DAYS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BRIEF AND LIGHT PASSING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...CONT VFR XCP ISOLD/SCT MVFR IN SHRA TONITE EAST PR/USVI/
LEEWARD ISLANDS. WIND BLO FL060 E 10-20 KT THRU MON...FL060-FL200
MAINLY E 5-12 KT INCR 12-22 KT TONITE/MON.

&&

.MARINE...SHORT PERIOD WAVES WILL CONTINUE AT 3-5 FEET AND UP TO 6
FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS UP
TO 20 KTS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 74 83 74 / 30 30 30 30
STT 85 74 87 77 / 30 30 30 30

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Puerto Rico Weather Dec 22, 2014 4:15:53 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Dec 22, 2014 4:15:53 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
325 AM AST MON DEC 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...DEEP RIDGE TO MAINTAIN LARGELY FAIR WEATHER
THIS WEEK. BUT MINOR LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO CAUSE SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES IN THE NUMBER OF SHOWERS.

VERY SHALLOW TROUGH...MAINLY NORTH OF ANEDAGA PASSAGE...TO PASS
OVER PR/USVI TODAY BUT IT FLATTENS AS IT DOES SO AND IS CARRYING
REALLY LIMITED MOISTURE. DOESN/T APPEAR THAT IT WILL MAKE MUCH
DIFFERENCE IN SHOWERS TODAY. BETTER MOISTURE...1.75 INCHES
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND ESSENTIALLY ALL BELOW 700 MB WILL ARRIVE
LATE TONIGHT BUT WITHOUT A TROUGH TO FOCUS SHOWERS...FOR BRIEF/
SCATTERED TRADE WIND SHOWERS INTO USVI/EAST PR.

GFS SHOWING ANOTHER SIMILAR LOOKING TROUGH AND MOISTURE TO ARRIVE
LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT. SO FAR...CAN/T SEE MORE THAN SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PASSING -SHRA
ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES. SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
10-15KTS AFTER 22/14Z FROM THE EAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS TO CONTINUE ALL WEEK BUT A
STRONG AND PERSISTENT MIDDLE NORTH ATLANTIC STORM WILL DRIVE
SWELLS SOUTHWARD BY FRI...MOST OF IT GOING WELL EAST OF ANTILLES
BUT WE MAY GET THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE HIGH SWELLS FRI/SAT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 75 83 72 / 20 30 30 10
STT 86 75 85 76 / 20 40 40 10

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Puerto Rico Weather Dec 23, 2014 4:31:40 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Dec 23, 2014 4:31:40 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
336 AM AST TUE DEC 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION
AND CAUSING A CAPPING INVERSION JUST ABOVE 700 MB. A RELATIVELY
MINOR SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE TODAY WITH
RELATIVELY GOOD MOISTURE. MIMIC/TPW SHOWS UP TO 45 MM (1.75
INCHES) OF PRECIPITABLE WATER...ALMOST ALL OF IT BELOW 700 MB...IN
THE REGION OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS NOTED ON SATELLITE FROM NORTHEAST
OF THE SOUTHERNMOST BAHAMAS TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. RADAR SHOWS
THESE SHOWERS APPROACHING USVI. SATELLITE INDICATES CLOUD TOPS
WITH TEMPERATURES NO COLDER THAN +6C AND NEAR THE 700 MB INVERSION
THE GFS INDICATES THERE. RADAR SUGGESTS THE TOPS ARE HIGHER BUT
THINK IT IS HAVING A SIDELOBING EFFECT AND GIVING FALSE ECHO
HEIGHTS. GFS SUGGESTS THE 700 MB INVERSION WILL PERSIST AS THE
SHOWERS PASS OVER PR/USVI TODAY SO CONVECTION WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT
SHALLOW. BUT WILL KEEP SHOWERS SCATTERED AND EXPECT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS MAINLY UNDER 1/4 INCH.

GFS INDICATES THE NEXT LOW LEVEL SHORTWAVE WITH FAIRLY GOOD
MOISTURE TO ARRIVE ON CHRISTMAS WHILE REMNANT COLD FRONT QUICKLY
PASSES THROUGH EARLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH A CHANCE OF PASSING SHRA ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES.
EASTERLY SFC WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS ARE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE
MORNING...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS AND GUSTY AFTER 23/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THIS WEEK
BUT SEAS EXPECTED TO BE NO HIGHER THAN 6 FEET. THE STRONG MIDDLE
ATLANTIC SYSTEM THAT THREATENED TO PUSH HIGH SWELLS INTO THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS NOW EXPECTED TO BE TOO FAR EAST TO PUSH
SWELLS TOWARD PR/USVI. BUT A COLD FRONT TO PUSH OFF U.S. COAST
WILL BE IN POSITION FOR THE NORTH WINDS BEHIND IT TO DRIVE SWELLS
UP TO 7 FEET TO OUR NORTH SHORES PROBABLY ON SAT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 73 83 73 / 30 10 10 30
STT 86 75 86 75 / 40 10 10 30

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Puerto Rico Weather Dec 24, 2014 4:13:57 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Dec 24, 2014 4:13:57 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
534 AM AST WED DEC 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A SURGE OF
MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REACH THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ONLY LIGHT ISOLATED
SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD MOSTLY OVER THE SURROUNDING COASTAL
WATERS. LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS DETECTED OVER LAND AREAS SO FAR
THIS MORNING. A GENERALLY DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY. THIS DRY AIR IN COMBINATION WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A FAIR AND STABLE
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THURSDAY. A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...INDUCING AN INCREASE IN PASSING SHOWERS OVER
THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. HOWEVER...THE
AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT INTENSITY AND AREAL
COVERAGE. AS THE SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION...A
SHARP DECREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED .
THE CHANCE OF PASSING SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS AN
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TDY XCP MVFR CIG IN ISOLD SHRA TISX/TNCM/TKPK. MVFR
IN FEW SHRA TONITE/THU FM TJSJ TO LEEWARDS. WIND E 12-20 KT TO FL050
THEN NE 15-27KT TO FL200.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 72 82 71 / 10 30 30 30
STT 85 74 86 76 / 10 30 30 30

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Puerto Rico Weather Dec 25, 2014 4:17:07 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Dec 25, 2014 4:17:07 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
525 AM AST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PATCHES OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
REACH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ONLY LIGHT ISOLATED
SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS.
LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS DETECTED OVER LAND AREAS SO FAR THIS
MORNING. A GENERALLY DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THIS DRY AIR IN COMBINATION WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AND
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A FAIR AND STABLE
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION FROM
TIME TO TIME...INDUCING AN INCREASE IN PASSING SHOWERS OVER THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. HOWEVER...THE AFOREMENTIONED
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE. AS THE
SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION...A SHARP DECREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED . THE CHANCE OF
PASSING SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REACH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD/SCT SHRA THRU FRI BUT MOST WL NOT LWR COND FM
VFR. WIND BLO FL100 ENE 12-20 KT THRU THU...FL100-FL200 NE 20-35 KT
BCMG ENE 20-25 KT TONITE/FRI.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION DUE TO WINDS UP TO
20 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 6 FEET. NORTHEASTERLY SWELL STILL
EXPECTED FOR LATE FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...DETERIORATING THE
MARINE AND SURF CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 71 84 71 / 30 30 20 20
STT 85 74 85 73 / 30 30 20 20

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Puerto Rico Weather Dec 26, 2014 4:32:21 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Dec 26, 2014 4:32:21 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
602 AM AST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOCAL AREA FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE EAST
COAST OF THE U.S. AND THEN SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE ATLANTIC
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. COLD FRONT EXPECTED OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS
ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PASSING SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED THROUGH THE NIGHT
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. SATELLITE DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER AND
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONSTANT TODAY
AT ABOUT 1.3 INCHES OF P-WAT BUT DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN LATE TODAY
INTO SATURDAY. THIS MEANS THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE IN
THE MORNING THEN SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF PR IN THE AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY OR LONG LASTING AS THE
MOISTURE IS LIMITED. SATURDAY...IS EXPECTED TO BE A VERY NICE DAY
WITH LITTLE TO NO SHOWER ACTIVITY. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND DRY AIR
APPROACHING WILL LIKELY KEEP FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
LOCAL AREA...ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY.

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON SUNDAY.
THIS SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE MOISTURE...CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS NOT BEEN
THAT CONSISTENT BETWEEN MODEL RUNS...SO POPS WERE KEPT A BIT
CONSERVATIVE UNTIL MORE CONSISTENCY IS SEEN IN THE TIMING.

FROM MONDAY ON...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH EAST NORTHEAST WINDS AND PATCHES OF MOISTURE
MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY.

MARINE CONDITIONS THOUGH WILL NOT BE SO GOOD THIS WEEKEND. DETAILS
IN THE MARINE SECTION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...ACT SHRA ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA IS CAUSING VCSH ACROSS
MOST OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS...THIS SHOULD IMPROVE BY 26/14Z.
AFTERNOON SHRA MAY CAUSE VCSH AT TJMZ BUT CONDITIONS OVERALL
SHOULD BE VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY AT AROUND 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO START DETERIORATING
TONIGHT. NORTHEASTERLY SWELL WILL INVADE THE LOCAL WATERS AND
CAUSE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS. LATEST MARINE GUIDANCE WAS
RATHER BULLISH IN THE WAVE HEIGHTS BUT WE DECIDED TO CAP THE WAVE
HEIGHTS AT 8 FEET STARTING ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WAS BECAUSE THE
SWELL HAS YET TO PASS THROUGH ANY OF THE BUOYS THAT ARE CLOSER TO
THE LOCAL AREA SO THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON MODEL
GUIDANCE PERFORMANCE. THE MARINE FORECAST WAS UPDATED AFTER
CONSIDERING THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND THE LATEST GUIDANCE. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES TO GO INTO EFFECT STARTING LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 71 83 71 / 20 10 20 30
STT 85 73 85 74 / 20 10 30 30

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Puerto Rico Weather Dec 27, 2014 4:13:40 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Dec 27, 2014 4:13:40 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
547 AM AST SAT DEC 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...THE LOCAL WEATHER REGIME WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED
BY A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN INTO THE
TROPICAL WESTERN ATLANTIC. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. MIGRATORY SURFACE HIGHS NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE FRESH TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS THROUGH MIDWEEK...
BECOMING STRONG LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES OBSERVED ACROSS
THE NORTH COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO RICO. EASTERLY WINDS WERE LIGHT
WITH COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL TODAY UNDER BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT. A WETTER PATTERN IS THEN EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS REMNANTS OF
AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE CLOSER TO THE AREA...WITH BEST MOISTURE
REMAINING OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND CLOUDINESS CAN BE EXPECTED AS SOON AS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN USVI AND THE NORTH COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO
RICO...SPREADING ACROSS ST CROIX...THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO
RICO AS WELL AS OVER THE CORDILLERA SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY
IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK... THEREFORE
THE CONTINUED TREND OF PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS IS
ANTICIPATED.

A SHARP DECREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH
VALUES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...SHOWERS
EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES CANT BE RULED OUT EACH DAY. BY FRIDAY...
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS A BROAD SURFACE HIGH TIGHTENS THE
LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THRU
LATE TONIGHT. THEN...A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE FLYING AREA FM THE
NORTH ON SUNDAY...INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND SHRA ACTIVITY WITH
POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CIGS. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...LARGE NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO INVADE THE ATLC
COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND PEAK LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE
SUBSIDING MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BASED ON LATEST BUOYS OBSERVATIONS...
STILL EXPECT BREAKING WAVES BETWEEN 14 AND 16 FEET. THEREFORE
COASTAL FLOOD CRITERIA STILL MARGINAL. HOWEVER...HIGH SURF AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 74 82 72 / 10 70 70 50
STT 85 74 85 74 / 10 70 70 40

Deleted

Posts: 0

Puerto Rico Weather Dec 28, 2014 4:17:10 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Deleted on Dec 28, 2014 4:17:10 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
420 AM AST SUN DEC 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT REMNANT NORTH OF PR/USVI APPROACHING
ISLANDS AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS BY EXTRAPOLATION OF SATELLITE IMAGES AND
GFS HAS A GOOD HANDLE...WILL REACH NORTH SHORES AROUND SUNRISE.
SOUNDINGS FROM THIS MODEL HAVE THE MOISTURE LIMITED TO UNDER 650
MB. THAT APPEARS ACCURATE BASED ON IMPLIED CLOUD TOPS FROM IR
IMAGES. BUT THINK GFS MOISTURE LEVELS ARE PROBABLY A LITTLE LOW
ABOVE 800 MB. MOISTURE TO THIS DEPTH IMPLIES QUITE A FEW SHOWERS
THIS MORNING AFTER 600 AM FOR NORTH HALF OF PR AND INTO ST.
THOMAS/VIEQUES/CULEBRA. RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWS THEM SPACED OUT
PRETTY WELL AND MOVING QUICKLY. SHOWERS WILL BE WIDESPREAD BUT NOT
LAST VERY LONG OR BE HEAVY. UNCERTAINTY OVER HOW FAR SOUTH THIS
NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE WILL SAG BY AFTERNOON LEADS TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS THEN. SUNSHINE ON LAND SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME CONVECTION BUT THE MOISTURE IS PRETTY
SHALLOW ANYWAY SO DO NOT EXPECT IT TO BE WIDESPREAD. FRONTOLYSIS
IS TURNING THIS FRONT INTO A BUNCH OF MINOR EASTERLY WAVES TO
PASS OVER PR/USVI OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE BEST ONE
PROBABLY ARRIVES TONIGHT. GOOD CONVERGENCE AT 1000-850 MB AS
NOTED ON GFS AT 06Z TONIGHT DEPICTED BETWEEN EASTERN PR AND USVI.
THIS IS A CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED ZONE FOR NIGHTTIME SHOWERS AND
HAVE INCLUDED LIKELY SHOWERS OVERNIGHT THERE.

&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE FLYING AREA...CREATING
MVFR/BRIEF IFR CIGS BETWEEN AFT 28/12Z MAINLY AT TJSJ/TJBQ/TNCM...
FOLLOWED BY SCT SHRA ACROSS MOST THE WHOLE AREA LATE IN THE MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. INCLEMENT WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHEASTERLY SFC WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...LONG PERIOD NORTHEAST SWELLS PEAK TODAY BUT WILL TAKE
SEVERAL DAYS TO DIMINISH. WINDS TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT TODAY WHICH
WILL MAKE THE WAVE GROUPS MORE COMPLEX BETWEEN SHORT PERIOD WIND
WAVE AND SWELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 70 82 71 / 80 60 50 50
STT 84 74 87 76 / 90 60 50 50

Deleted

Posts: 0

Puerto Rico Weather Dec 29, 2014 4:40:41 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Deleted on Dec 29, 2014 4:40:41 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
528 AM AST MON DEC 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE IN THE WEST
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...BUT WILL TILT INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NOW
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THERE UNTIL SATURDAY. A TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN
SEA.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER CUBA AND THE BAHAMA
ISLANDS THIS WEEK. MID LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MOVE EASTWARD
DURING THE WEEK. A WEAK TROUGH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
GRADUALLY YIELD TO HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES LATE THIS WEEK. TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN A WIDE SWATH
FROM AFRICA TO THE GREATER ANTILLES THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 10
DAYS. SHALLOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED AROUND PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...BUT HAVE NOT CROSSED THE ISLANDS
UNTIL JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. RADAR SHOWED MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IN
SMALL...BRIEF SHOWERS ENTERING NAGUABO...CEIBA AND FAJARDO AROUND
5 AM AST. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON THE WINDWARD SLOPES...BUT MID
MORNING MIXING WILL CAUSE MOST SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE. A FEW SHOWERS
WILL ALSO FORM THIS AFTERNOON OVER INTERIOR PUERTO RICO. SHOWERS
OVER THE LOCAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE BUT WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED.
A BAND OF BETTER MOISTURE...THOUGH STILL SHALLOW...WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA FROM 29/18Z TO 30/05Z...BUT MOST OF THE SHOWERS
WILL ONLY BE SEEN ON THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE GFS SHOWED A CORRESPONDING SPIKE
OF MOISTURE UP TO 10 THOUSAND FEET THIS AFTERNOON.

BRIEF BREAKS IN THIS MODEST MOISTURE WILL PASS THROUGH FOR MOST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL
CARRY THESE SHALLOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE NEXT
10 DAYS. MOISTURE WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED BELOW 7 TO 9 THOUSAND
FEET. MID LEVELS WILL RARELY SEE MORE THAN 20 PERCENT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY THIS WEEK AND RH WILL BE BELOW 10 PERCENT MOST OF THE
TIME. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS BRIEF AND ACCUMULATIONS MINOR AS THE
LIFTED INDEX REMAINS ABOVE MINUS 2.5 THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF THE
NEW YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH AT LEAST 29/12Z. SOME PASSING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
TIST...TIST...TJSJ...AND TJBQ. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM
THE EAST NORTHEAST AT 10 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS AT BUOY 41043 HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 8 AND 9 FEET
OVERNIGHT...BUT WAVE REACHING THE NORTHERN COASTS HAVE GENERALLY
BEEN BELOW 7 FEET. PERIODS ARE LONG--UP TO 14 SECONDS--BUT AS WINDS
CONTINUE SHORT PERIOD ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 7 FEET IN THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA UNTIL FRIDAY IN THE CARIBBEAN WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 83 72 / 50 50 30 20
STT 83 76 83 75 / 60 60 20 30

Deleted

Posts: 0

Puerto Rico Weather Dec 30, 2014 4:15:30 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Deleted on Dec 30, 2014 4:15:30 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
525 AM AST TUE DEC 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE RIDGE SLOWLY
TILTS EASTWARD UNTIL IT IS JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS FRIDAY. A TROUGH CONTINUES TO EXTEND OUT OF THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER AND JUST NORTH OF THE
GREATER ANTILLES THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. MID LEVELS REMAIN VERY
DRY EXCEPT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE SUB TROPICAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN AND DRIVES MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS THROUGH
THE NEXT 10 DAYS FROM AFRICA TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A GENERAL
DRYING TREND BEGINS ON FRIDAY...BUT PASSING TRADE WIND SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS BROUGHT LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAIN TO
THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF PUERTO RICO AND MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC
WATERS NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND CULEBRA. ONLY A FEW SHOWERS WERE
SEEN NEAR THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WHERE TRACE AMOUNTS
WERE OBSERVED. SAN LORENZO HAD 0.35 INCHES OVERNIGHT WHILE YABUCOA
HAD 0.25 INCHES. SATELLITE AND MIMIC IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE
LEADING EDGE OF DRIER AIR WILL ENTER INTO THE AREA AFTER 8 AM AST
TODAY AND IS ALREADY PUSHING INTO THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS
WILL KEEP ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP AFTERWARD ISOLATED. THE NEXT
PEAKS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER...ACCORDING TO THE GFS...WILL BE ON NEW
YEAR`S EVE AND DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THE GFS ALSO SUGGESTS
THAT MOISTURE WILL REACH 600 MB AT 18Z THURSDAY. OTHERWISE MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE VERY DRY AIR ABOVE 5 TO 9 THOUSAND FEET.
AFTER WEDNESDAY WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND 850 MB INCREASE THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS SHOWS UP TO 33 KNOTS AT 850 MB 04/00Z.
BECAUSE THE LIFTED INDEX IS CLOSE TO ZERO AT THAT TIME WITH
OCCASIONAL INVERSIONS NEAR THAT LEVEL...WINDS ARE NOT WELL
COUPLED...AND REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS OVER LAND AT LEAST.

THE GENERAL TRADE WINDS COMING OUT OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC ARE
ABLE TO MAINTAIN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOIST AND
HENCE TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT...BUT WILL BE
MOST NOTICEABLE ON THE WINDWARD SIDE OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...AS TRADE WIND SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY IN THE MORNING...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
AT JSJ/IST. AFT 30/12Z...EASTERLY WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS AND GUSTY IN THE VICINITY OF SHRA.
ADDITIONALLY...AFT 30/17Z ISOLATED SHRA ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NW PR
AND THIS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CONDS IN AND AROUND TJMZ/TJBQ.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS AT BUOY 41043 HAVE JUST NOW DROPPED BELOW 7 FEET
AND WAVE WATCH 3 MODEL SUGGESTS THAT SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
DURING THE DAY. NEVERTHELESS SEAS OF UP TO 7 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY IN THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AS THE
LATEST PULSE MOVES THROUGH. THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS
BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 9 PM AST FOR SOME OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE UNTIL THE NEXT SWELL TRAIN ARRIVES ON
FRIDAY AND WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST INCREASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 72 86 71 / 30 30 30 40
STT 88 77 88 75 / 20 40 40 40

Deleted

Posts: 0

Puerto Rico Weather Dec 31, 2014 4:28:56 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Deleted on Dec 31, 2014 4:28:56 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
559 AM AST WED DEC 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE IN THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. A TROUGH WILL OCCASIONALLY EXTEND OUT OF THE WESTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES WILL MOVE
TO NORTH OF HISPANIOLA FRIDAY NIGHT AND TO NORTH OF PUERTO RICO
THE FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE IN THE WESTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC DURING THIS TIME. MID LEVELS WILL BE DRY THROUGH
FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK EXCEPT FOR SOME MINIMAL MOISTURE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...GENERALLY HIGHER PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL
MAINTAIN EASTERLY TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BECOMING FRESH TO STRONG BY
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOST AREAS IN EASTERN PUERTO RICO HAD LESS RAINFALL
THAN LAST NIGHT...BUT ONE AREA IN HUMACAO HAD OVER 1 INCH AS
SHOWERS IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW STRENGTHENED UPON CROSSING THE
COAST AND MOVING UP-SLOPE. OTHERWISE SHOWERS WERE ISOLATED AND LEFT
LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS. AREAS WEST OF A LINE FROM SAN JUAN TO
GUAYAMA WERE DRY. BOTH MIMIC AND THE GFS MODELS INDICATE THAT
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AFTER THIS AFTERNOON AND PEAK ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. THIS MEANS THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH GENERALLY AFTER 1 AM
AST...AND CONTINUE ON AND OFF THROUGH FRIDAY...COINCIDENT WITH THE
MOISTENING OF THE MID LEVELS. SHOWERS WILL AGAIN DECREASE AS WIND
INCREASE AND 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES TREND LOWER. IT WILL BE
BREEZY...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. NEVERTHELESS...EASTERN
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL SEE QUICKLY PASSING
SHOWERS DURING MUCH OF THE NEXT 6 DAYS. SHOWERS WILL BE LESS
RELIABLE AND LESS FREQUENT IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO.

LITTLE CHANGES IN THE UPPER OR LOWER LEVEL PATTERN ARE EXPECTED
EXCEPT FOR SOME STRENGTHENING OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND DEEPENING OF THE LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. HENCE THE TRADE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT FOUR
DAYS...LEAVING THE PRINCIPLE SOURCE OF AIR AT THE LOWEST LEVELS
FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TO BE THE MOIST SUB-
TROPICAL ATLANTIC TO OUR EAST NORTHEAST UNTIL THE WEEKEND AFTER
NEXT.

&&

.AVIATION...OVERALL VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL THE TAF
SITES...EXCEPT FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS OVER THE LEEWARD AND USVI
TERMINALS IN PASSING SHRA. VCSH POSSIBLE AT TJSJ AND TJPS THRU MID
MORNING. GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT AROUND 10-20 KT
BELOW FL200.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TODAY AND TOMORROW...BUT AS
WINDS INCREASE EXPECT SEAS TO RETURN TO 7 FEET OR MORE BEGINNING
FRIDAY. MODELS ARE FORECASTING 20 TO 25 KNOTS BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT
AM CURRENTLY EXPECTING ACTUAL SUSTAINED VALUES TO BE CLOSER TO THE
BOTTOM OF THE RANGE. WIND GUSTS UP TO 32 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE MOST EXPOSED LOCATIONS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY SINCE 850 MB
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 33 KNOTS. A RELATIVELY STABLE
ATMOSPHERE WILL GENERALLY LEAVE THIS LAYER MOSTLY UNCOUPLED WITH
THE SURFACE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 84 71 / 30 30 40 40
STT 86 75 86 76 / 40 30 30 30

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Puerto Rico Weather

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