Puerto Rico Weather

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Puerto Rico Weather Jan 1, 2015 5:20:03 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Jan 1, 2015 5:20:03 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
509 AM AST THU JAN 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN
OVER THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND AND DIG INTO
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN
WILL KEEP FLOW NORTHERLY UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES WILL
BECOME CENTERED JUST NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS BY SATURDAY.
LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL STRENGTHEN
BRIEFLY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. ONLY LIMITED MOISTURE IS EXPECTED AT
MID LEVELS...MAINLY FRIDAY AND MONDAY. OTHERWISE MID LEVELS
CONTINUE VERY DRY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGHER PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO THE NORTH AND
BUILD NOW THROUGH SUNDAY CAUSING A GRADUAL BUT SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN THE TRADE WINDS. WINDS WILL NOT SUBSIDE TO CURRENT
LEVELS UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WERE MUCH FEWER THIS MORNING...BUT A FEW
MOVED THROUGH THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND INLAND OVER EASTERN
PUERTO RICO WITH SLIGHT OR NO ACCUMULATIONS IN MOST AREAS...BUT
OVER ONE QUARTER INCH IN SMALL AREAS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF
THE LUQUILLO RANGE. MEASURABLE AMOUNTS WERE NOT REPORTED IN THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OR WEST OF A LINE FROM SAN JUAN TO GUAYAMA.
THE MIMIC PRODUCT SHOWED A WIDE AREA OF MODEST MOISTURE IN THE
WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTH OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE MOISTURE TO THE EAST
NORTHEAST...WHICH IS NOT QUITE AS STRONG. NEVERTHELESS THE BEST
MOISTURE OF THE WEEK ACCORDING TO THE GFS WILL BE AROUND 1.5
INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER EARLY FRIDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
IMMEDIATE DRYING AND ANOTHER PEAK EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SLOTS OF
DRIER AIR WILL OCCUR LATER NEXT WEEK...BUT IN GENERAL FRESH TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CARRY BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS WITH VERY
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF
THIS WEEK AND MOST OF NEXT. EXCEPTIONS WOULD BE THE SOUTH COAST
OF PUERTO RICO WHICH WILL SEE LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL THROUGH THE
WEEK. THE TOP OF THE MOIST LAYER WILL GENERALLY BE 6 TO 9
THOUSAND FEET.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL THE TAF SITES THRU THE
FORECAST PERIOD. BRIEF MVFR CIGS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE LEEWARD AND
USVI TERMINALS IN PASSING SHRA. EASTERLY WINDS OF 15-20 KT EXPECTED
BELOW FL200 THRU FRI MORNING...THEN WIND SPEEDS INCREASE LATE
FRIDAY TO 20-30 KT AND CONTINUE THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE ENTIRELY BELOW 6 FEET AT THE PRESENT MOMENT
FROM AS FAR OUT AS BUOY 41043 TO THE LOCAL INNER WATERS.
INCREASING WINDS DURING THE DAY WILL BRING A FEW LOCAL AREAS TO 6
FEET...BUT MOST INCREASES IN SEAS WILL WAIT UNTIL AFTER NOON
FRIDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM FRIDAY NOON TO
SATURDAY NOON...FOLLOWED BY HIGHER SEAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ARE EXPECTED EITHER FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR LATER THAT EVENING FOR
MOST WATERS EXCEPT THOSE PROTECTED FROM EASTERLY WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 74 84 72 / 30 40 60 50
STT 84 77 86 76 / 20 20 40 40

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Puerto Rico Weather Jan 2, 2015 4:24:48 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Jan 2, 2015 4:24:48 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
534 AM AST FRI JAN 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS...WITH FEW AFFECTING THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
PREVAILED ACROSS ALL THE REGION...WITH LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY.
DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
TODAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE LOCAL REGION.
PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW WILL
AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATES THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN. GFS COMPUTER MODEL FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 1.0 TO 1.25 INCHES NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH VERY DRY
AIR DOMINATING MID AND UPPER LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE. NO MAJOR
WEATHER FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION IN THE
LONG RANGE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...OVERALL VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL THE TAF SITES.
VCSH POSSIBLE AT TJSJ...TIST AND TISX THRU MID MORNING. LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE FM 15-25 KT TODAY TO 20-30 KT DURING
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...AS WINDS STRETENGETNS...SEAS WILL DETERIOTE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS UP TO 6 FEET INCREASING TO 7
FEET LATER TODAY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ALTANTIC WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVIROIES WIL BE IN EFFECT STARTING THIS AFTERNOON...FIRST ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS..AND ACROSS MOST LOCAL WATERS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 71 84 71 / 20 10 20 20
STT 85 75 87 76 / 20 10 20 20

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Puerto Rico Weather Jan 3, 2015 4:33:04 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Jan 3, 2015 4:33:04 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
516 AM AST SAT JAN 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD AND BUILD OVER THE BAHAMAS
OVER THE SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL SUSTAIN A SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT
LOW LEVELS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC DURING THE WEEKEND MAINTAINING WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND REGIONAL WATERS. OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS
EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE WINDWARD SIDE OF
THE ISLANDS...BUT OVERALL A GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS MOVED INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO AROUND MIDNIGHT. STRONG
EASTERLY TRADES PUSHED THESE SHOWERS FAIRLY QUICKLY...LIMITING THE
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE WINDWARD SIDE OF
THE ISLANDS DIMINISHED EARLY THIS MORNING.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SURFACE WINDS WILL PEAK AT
AROUND 22-24 KT ON SUNDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED OVER
THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. AS A RESULT...EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
DURING THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY MONDAY. STRONG TRADES USUALLY
CARRY PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AS WELL AS LIGHT SHOWERS...
AFFECTING MAINLY THE WINDWARD AREAS FROM TIME TO TIME.

IN GENERAL...FAIR WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS LOCAL ISLANDS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE. RIDGE PATTERN WEAKENS UNDER PRESSURE FROM A POLAR FRONT
ENTERING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY MIDWEEK. HOWEVER...WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS PR AND USVI ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH AT LEAST 03/22Z. PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME
OVER TNCM...TKPK...TIST AND TJSJ. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST AT AROUND 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CAUSE BUILDING SEAS OF 7-9 FT.
THIS WILL RESULT CHOPPY AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS EXCEPT THE COASTAL
WATERS OF WESTERN PUERTO RICO.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL MAINTAIN WINDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THESE STRONG TRADES COMBINED WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES NEAR
CRITICAL LEVELS TO ELEVATED THE FIRE DANGER TODAY AND POSSIBLY ON
SUNDAY. THEREFORE...A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAVE BEEN ISSUED FROM
LATE THIS MORNING TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASE REFER TO THE STATEMENT
FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 72 83 71 / 20 20 10 30
STT 86 75 86 75 / 20 20 10 40

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Puerto Rico Weather Jan 4, 2015 4:27:01 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Jan 4, 2015 4:27:01 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
451 AM AST SUN JAN 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD OVER THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC
OVER THE SEVERAL DAYS. AT LOW LEVELS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC IS MAINTAINING A FRESH TO STRONG TRADE
WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE
TRADES WILL BE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY THE
WINDWARD AREAS FROM TIME TO TIME. LIGHT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE TRADE WIND SHOWERS...AS MOISTURE REMAINS VERY
SHALLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVED ONSHORE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO EARLY THIS MORNING.
BRISK EASTERLY FLOW HAVE PUSHED THESE SHOWERS FAIRLY QUICKLY ACROSS
THE ISLANDS...LIMITING THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. RADAR ESTIMATED LESS
THAN TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO SINCE MIDNIGHT.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A 1040 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHWEST ATLANTIC. ASCAT PASS AT 02Z SHOWED WINDS OF AROUND
20-25 KT ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. THIS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MAINTAIN A BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
THEN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
LOOSENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. MEANWHILE...
PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM
TIME TO TIME...BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ISLANDS. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE CONCENTRATED OVER THE WINDWARD
AREAS AND THE INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT. RIDGE
PATTERN WEAKENS UNDER PRESSURE FROM A POLAR FRONT ENTERING THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC BY MIDWEEK. HOWEVER...WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
PR AND USVI ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED FROM TIME TO
TIME OVER TNCM...TKPK...TIST AND TJSJ. THESE -SHRA MAY LEAD TO
BRIEF MVFR CIGS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE ENE AT
AROUND 15-25 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL KEEP THE SEAS AROUND
6-8 FT WITH OCCASIONAL 9 FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THESE
WIND WAVES WILL RESULT IN CHOPPY AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS EXCEPT
THE COASTAL WATERS OF WESTERN PUERTO RICO. THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
CONTINUES MODERATE TO HIGH FOR MOST OF THE BEACHES IN PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 76 83 76 / 30 30 30 40
STT 85 78 86 78 / 20 30 20 40

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Puerto Rico Weather Jan 5, 2015 4:17:14 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Jan 5, 2015 4:17:14 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
416 AM AST MON JAN 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
NORTH ATLANTIC WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING TOWARDS THE BAHAMAS. A COLD
FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE FROM THE U.S. WHICH WILL SHOVE THE HIGH
PRESSURE FARTHER EAST AND WEAKEN THE RIDGE. THIS WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE THE STRONG TRADE WINDS WE HAVE EXPERIENCED FOR SEVERAL
DAYS. LITTLE CHANGE OTHERWISE IS EXPECTED AS PATCHES OF MOISTURE
CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD IN THE TRADES BUT WITH LITTLE WAVE
ACTIVITY TO CAUSE MORE THAN SCATTERED SHOWERS. DEEPER MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ARRIVING LATE FRI AND TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR AT LOCAL TAF SITES...WITH SOME VCSH THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST TO EAS-NORTHEAST
AT AROUND 10 KT UNTIL 05/14Z...INCREASING TO 15-20KT AND GUSTY
THEREAFTER.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS ARE DOWN BUT VERY SLIGHTLY AT AREA BUOYS
BUT SCATTEROMETERS AND MODELS SUGGEST WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL REMAIN ABOUT 25 KNOTS THROUGH TODAY. SUSTAINED WINDS CLOSE TO
THAT ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES AND EXPECT SMALL DECREASES FOR WINDS/SEAS
TONIGHT/TUE. SUBSTANTIAL DROP OFF WILL WAIT UNTIL WED/THU.

&&

.FIRE WX...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON PUERTO RICO SOUTH COAST
AND WINDS WILL RETURN AGAIN TODAY. MOISTURE LEVELS ARE MARGINAL TO
CONSIDER RED FLAG CONDITIONS AND KBDI VALUES ARE ALSO ON THE CUSP.
SOLAR RADIATION IS ALSO NOT YET VERY SIGNIFICANT. TEMPERATURE/DEW
POINT SEPARATIONS AT 800 MB WILL NOT BE IN EXCESS OF 10C UNTIL
POSSIBLY IN LATE AFTERNOON BUT ACCORDING TO GFS THE DIFFERENCE
WILL BE FALLING QUITE RAPIDLY BY LATE AFTERNOON. BELIEVE THERE IS
ENOUGH CONCERN TO ISSUE RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT BUT RED
FLAG APPEARS HIGHLY UNLIKELY FOR TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 82 71 / 30 40 50 30
STT 86 74 86 75 / 20 50 50 40

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Puerto Rico Weather Jan 6, 2015 4:42:39 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Jan 6, 2015 4:42:39 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
422 AM AST TUE JAN 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO BAHAMAS IS
WEAKENING THOUGH WILL REBUILD OVER THE WEEKEND. ASSOCIATED TRADE
WINDS WILL WEAKEN TOO AND THEN STRENGTHEN AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SHALLOW WITH SHOWERS TO BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AND BRIEF AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY.

A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) HAS DRAWN MOISTURE
NORTHWARD FROM THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN 40W AND
30W AS FAR NORTH AS 15N. THE TUTT IS DECAYING AND WILL ALLOW THE
MOISTURE MOVE WESTWARD UNDERNEATH IT. BUT NO SIGNIFICANT LOW OR
MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH WILL CARRY THE MOISTURE WESTWARD. AS A RESULT
THE MOISTURE WILL BE DISORGANIZED AND BEGIN ARRIVING INTO PR/USVI
PIECEMEAL BY LATE FRI. GFS SHOWS THE MOISTURE PASSING MAINLY IN
THE FRI-SUN PERIOD WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHING 2 INCHES
SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING. STATISTICALLY THAT WOULD BE GREATER THAN
THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR JANUARY...IF IT OCCURRED. GFS ALSO EXPECTS
AN EASTWARD MOVING 250 MB TROUGH TO PASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA SAT
NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINS. SO
FAR...BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS SEEM CERTAIN BUT THESE OTHERWISE
UNRELATED FEATURES WILL HAVE TO ARRIVE AT THE SAME TIME TO HAVE
MUCH CHANCE OF CAUSING ANYHING MORE THAN GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF THE
TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VCSH ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...SHRA ACTIVITY DIMINISHING AFTER 06/13Z...THEN
INCREASING AGAIN AFTER 06/22Z...CAUSING VCSH THEREAFTER. SFC WINDS
MAINLY FROM THE EAST...WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS...AT AROUND 5-10
KT UNTIL 06/12Z...INCREASING THEREAFTER TO 10-20KT AND GUSTY.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS/SEAS ARE VERY GRADUALLY DIMINISHING...TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THU. BUT THE RIDGE FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING TO
THE BAHAMAS WILL BUILD AGAIN BEGINNING FRI AND POSSIBLY CAUSE
WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH AS THEY WERE THIS LAST
WEEKEND. A NORTHERLY SWELL TRAIN ALSO BEGINS TO ARRIVE FRI NIGHT
WHICH WILL CAUSE A MIXED SEA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 73 83 72 / 30 50 50 30
STT 86 74 86 74 / 40 50 50 30

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Puerto Rico Weather Jan 7, 2015 4:14:05 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Jan 7, 2015 4:14:05 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
527 AM AST WED JAN 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC WHILE A SURFACE LOW EXISTS THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S.
TODAY AND THURSDAY. FOR FRIDAY...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT
THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S....CAUSING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN WINDS
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS LATE THIS WEEK AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL ENTER
AND DISSIPATE OVER THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY. WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY DRY TODAY AND THURSDAY...INCREASING
MOISTURE AND WIND SPEED ON FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...THE ACCUMULATIONS WERE
MINIMAL. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES CLOSE TO ONE INCH BY 8AM LOCAL TIME...THEN STAYING
CLOSE TO 1.0 TO 1.15 INCHES THROUGH THURSDAY. ISOLATED TO LOCALLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS IN STORE FOR THE
LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER AS THE SURFACE HIGH
EXITS THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S....THE LOCAL WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN AND SO WILL THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. AS OF NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE THE LOCAL WATERS...USVI...AND EASTERN PR COULD GET PASSING
SHOWERS DURING THE NIGHTTIME AND DAYTIME HOURS THIS WEEKEND. IN
TERMS OF WINDS...EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN ON
FRIDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IT WILL BE CLOSER TO SUNDAY
WHEN THE WIND REALLY PICS UP...GETTING CLOSE TO 25 MPH. THIS MAY
BE A BIT BULLISH...BUT IT SHOWS CLEARLY THAT WINDS WILL PICK
UP...THIS ALSO MEANS THAT THE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY WHEN
COMBINED WITH NNW SWELLS EXPECTED TO COME IN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR XCP VRY SLGT CHC BRF MVFR IN SHRA THRU THU. WIND BLO
FL150 E 15-25 KT BCMG 12-20 KT TONITE AND 8-15 KT THU.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON TODAY ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. MARINE CONDITIONS IMPROVING TODAY
AND THURSDAY...THEN BUILD AGAIN FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A GROUP
OF NNW SWELLS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ATLC FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING SEAS
UPWARDS OF 8 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 71 84 72 / 30 30 30 30
STT 85 74 86 75 / 30 30 30 40

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Puerto Rico Weather Jan 8, 2015 4:26:37 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Jan 8, 2015 4:26:37 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
618 AM AST THU JAN 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE A SURFACE LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. TODAY. FOR FRIDAY...A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE EAST COAST OF THE
U.S AND WILL MOVE EAST....CAUSING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN WINDS ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA...THEN ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH WILL EXIT THE EAST
COAST OF THE U.S. ON MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL ENTER
AND DISSIPATE OVER THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY DRY TODAY BUT INCREASING MOISTURE AND
WIND SPEED ON FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL CAUSE AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...THE ACCUMULATIONS WERE
MINIMAL. RELATIVELY DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN TODAY WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLOSE TO 1.1 INCHES BY 8AM LOCAL
TIME...THEN STAYING CLOSE TO 1.1 TO 1.2 INCHES THROUGH THE DAY.
ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACCUMULATION IS IN STORE
FOR THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY. WESTERN PR HAS A HIGHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN THE LIMITED AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE COMBINES WITH THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND DAYTIME HEATING.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE MODERATE...HOWEVER...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN AND SO WILL THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE ON FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN ON
FRIDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IT WILL BE CLOSER TO SUNDAY
WHEN THE WIND REALLY PICKS UP...GETTING CLOSE TO 25 MPH. THIS ALSO
MEANS THAT THE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY WHEN COMBINED WITH NORTHERLY
SWELLS EXPECTED TO COME IN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

ONE MORE THING TO NOTE IS THAT THE LATEST GFS MODEL BRINGS QUITE A
BIT OF MOISTURE FOR THE WEEKEND...IN PARTICULAR FOR SUNDAY. A BAND
OF MOISTURE PASSES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
INCREASING BRIEFLY TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES...THEN PRECIPITABLE WATER
HOVERS AROUND 1.5 TO 1.6 INCHES ON SATURDAY THEN INCREASING TO
ALMOST 1.9 INCHES ON SUNDAY. TO PUT THINGS IN PERSPECTIVE...1.9
INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER THIS TIME OF THE YEAR IS IN THE 99TH
PERCENTILE ACCORDING TO CLIMATOLOGY...SO THE MODEL SUGGESTS A
DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE COMING IN FOR SUNDAY. HAVING SAID
THAT...THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR BETTER SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PR...VIEQUES AND
CULEBRA...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE USVI. THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY SHALL BE ADJUSTED AS CONFIDENCE IN THE GUIDANCE GETS
BETTER.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WI ISOLD/SCT SHRA NR TIST/TISX/TNCM/TJSJ/TKPK THRU
FRI. MOST SHRA WILL NOT LWR CONDS TO MVFR BUT BCMG MORE LKLY ON FRI.
WIND BLO FL150 E 5-18 KT INCR 15-25 KT EARLY ON FRI.

&&

.MARINE...LATEST BUOY DATA AND MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE EASTERLY TRADES TODAY...THEN GRADUALLY INCREASING
ONCE AGAIN BY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH
DETERIORATING SEA CONDITIONS DUE TO NORTHERLY SWELL BY LATE FRIDAY
AND FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS BY SUNDAY AND INTO
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO EXERCISE CAUTION TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL GO INTO
EFFECT LATE TONIGHT FOR THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 72 83 73 / 30 40 50 40
STT 86 74 86 76 / 30 40 40 40

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Puerto Rico Weather Jan 9, 2015 4:04:26 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Deleted on Jan 9, 2015 4:04:26 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
446 AM AST FRI JAN 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRENGTHENING ATLC RIDGE WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN WINDS AND TRADE WIND SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH MON MORNING. RIDGE
THEN WEAKENS THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRES FORMS OFF
THE EAST COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST TPW IMAGERY SHOWS PRETTY DECENT MOISTURE TO
THE EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THIS WILL ADVECT RAPIDLY WWD LATER
THIS MORNING ACROSS PR/USVI AS ATLC RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND WINDS
INCREASE. SO EXPECT EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TODAY WITH SHOWERS
LIKELY ESPECIALLY FROM ARECIBO EAST TO FAJARDO. A SHARP DECLINE IN
MOISTURE IS SUGGESTED FOR TONIGHT BY ALL GUIDANCE AND HAVE
FOLLOWED THIS CLOSELY.

AS ARCTIC HIGH PRES EXITS THE MID ATLC COAST SAT NIGHT AND BUILDS
ACROSS THE ATLC...LOCAL PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY
WITH WINDS STRENGTHENING FURTHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH CLOUD
CLUSTERS AND TRADE WIND SHOWERS ADVECTING OVR THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ATLC RIDGE THEN BEGINS TO WEAKEN MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END
OF NEXT WEEK WITH TRADE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
DIMINISHING CONSIDERABLY. LOW PRES IS THEN FCST TO DEVELOP OFF
THE U.S. EAST COAST THU-FRI AND LIFT TO THE NNE WITH ASSOCIATED
CDFNT MOVING TO THE EAST OF 70W BY NEXT FRI DEC 16. DUE TO
BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE EAST ATLC IT IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME
WHETHER THIS FRONT WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR THE LOCAL AREA OR NOT
NEXT WEEKEND. GIVEN THE BLOCKING PATTERN WOULD EXPECT THIS LOW
PRES TO BE SLOW MOVER AND GENERATE SIGNIFICANT WAVE ACTION OVR THE
WRN ATLC WITH A SIG SWELL EVENT ARRIVING HERE SOMETIME NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH ISOLD SHRA EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS
TIST/TISX/TNCM/TKPK THRU FRIDAY MORNING. THEN...ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE FLYING AREA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...PRODUCING
SCT-BKN CIGS AND SCT SHRA. BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE OVER TJMZ AND
TJPS BETWEEN 09/18-21Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT
10-20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 09/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY IN ENE WIND WAVES AND MODERATE NNW SWELLS. THESE
SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO REACH THE ATLC COASTAL TONIGHT AND PEAK SAT
MORNING INCREASING THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 73 85 76 / 70 20 50 50
STT 78 76 79 75 / 50 10 50 50

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Puerto Rico Weather Jan 10, 2015 4:23:03 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Deleted on Jan 10, 2015 4:23:03 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
417 AM AST SAT JAN 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG ATLC RIDGE WILL CREATE WINDY CONDITIONS SUN-TUE.
RIDGE THEN WEAKENS AS LOW PRES FORMS OFF OF THE U.S. SOUTHEAST
COAST WITH WINDS DIMINISHING. ASSOCIATED CDFNT EXPECTED TO MAKE
IT THROUGH THE AREA NEXT SAT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DAY WILL START OUT QUITE DRY UNDER FULL SUNSHINE.
ISOLD-SCT AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVR NORTHEAST PR.
HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST SOME LATE DAY SHALLOW CONVECTION OVR NW PR.
NOT QUITE SURE ABOUT THIS GIVEN DRYNESS AND UNFAVORABLE TIME OF
THE YEAR BUT LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW LOOKS FVRBL. LOCAL PRES
GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN TONIGHT WITH TRADES STRENGTHENING
BUT THIS DOES NOT RESULT IN ANY SIG MOISTURE ADVECTION. IN
FACT...MODELS SHOW A SIG LOW-MID LEVEL DRY SLOT PUNCHING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE EAST SUNDAY WHICH CAN BE SEEN ON TPW IMAGERY NEAR
19N 53W. THIS COULD HAVE FIRE WX IMPLICATIONS FOR SUNDAY. WINDS
REALLY STRENGTHEN MON AS 1037 MB ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE
ATLC. .FIRE WEATHER...CONTEMPLATING THE ISSUANCE OF A FIRE WX WATCH FOR
THE SOUTH COASTAL PLAIN FOR SUNDAY DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND
LOWERING HUMIDITIES AS GUIDANCE INDICATES A LOW-MID LEVEL DRY SLOT
MOVING IN. STABILITY WILL ALSO BE ON THE DECREASE MEANING MORE
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THAT COULD ENHANCE THE FIRE WX POTENTIAL. WILL
AWAIT 06Z GFS GUIDANCE BEFORE ISSUING ANYTHING.MOISTURE DEEPENS TO 500 MB AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ERODES.
SHOWERS AND EVEN T-STORMS APPEAR LIKELY ON MONDAY ESPECIALLY ERN
PR...USVI AND ADJACENT WATERS. SFC RIDGE SHIFTS EAST TUE WITH PRES
GRADIENT LOOSENING SOMEWHAT. THIS TREND CONTINUES WED WITH RIDGE
WEAKENING FURTHER THU THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRES
FORMS OFF OF THE U.S. SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS LOW AND ASSOCIATED
CDFNT ARE SLOW TO MOVE EAST BUT MAJORITTY OF GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
BRING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SAT. DUE TO DEVELOPING LONG FETCH
SRLY FLOW AHEAD OF CDFNT SFC TEMPS COULD HIT RECORD LEVELS ON FRI
BEFORE CFNT CROSSES THE AREA SAT. LOW PRES AND ASSOCIATED FORCING
WILL BE WEAKENING WITH TIME SO AM NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT HEAVY
RAINS WITH THIS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...AS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHRA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLYING AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN PR. LOW LEVEL
WINDS FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 10-15 KT WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS
AFTER 10/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...NNW FORERUNNERS ARE ARRIVING AT BUOY 41053. THESE SWELLS
EXPECTED TO PEAK LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.
WINDS AND SEAS THEN BUILD LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING IN
STRONG TRADES AND ENE WIND WAVES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CONTEMPLATING THE ISSUANCE OF A FIRE WX WATCH FOR
THE SOUTH COASTAL PLAIN FOR SUNDAY DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND
LOWERING HUMIDITIES AS GUIDANCE INDICATES A LOW-MID LEVEL DRY SLOT
MOVING IN. STABILITY WILL ALSO BE ON THE DECREASE MEANING MORE
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THAT COULD ENHANCE THE FIRE WX POTENTIAL. WILL
AWAIT 06Z GFS GUIDANCE BEFORE ISSUING ANYTHING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 76 83 73 / 50 50 50 70
STT 86 75 85 75 / 50 50 40 50

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Puerto Rico Weather Jan 11, 2015 4:20:30 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Deleted on Jan 11, 2015 4:20:30 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
411 AM AST SUN JAN 11 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE ATLC WILL SUPPORT WINDY
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PRES FORMS OVER THE WRN ATLC WITH
A CDFNT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER 12Z AS
LOW-MID LEVEL DRY SLOT CURRENTLY OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVES
OVERHEAD AND DRIES THINGS OUT. ALSO...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL
BUILD IN ALOFT SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DRYING. THE
DRYING WILL ALSO BE AUGMENTED/ENHANCED ON THE SOUTH COAST WHERE
MODELS INDICATE ENE DOWNSLOPE WINDS AT THE SFC. A 0410Z SJU ACARS
SOUNDING SHOWED 925 MB WINDS AT 25-KT OR 5-KT STRONGER THAN
SUGGESTED BY 00Z GFS. STRONG HIGH PRES OF ARCTIC ORIGIN WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE ATLC NEXT FEW DAYS AND SUPPORT WINDY TO VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE FREQUENT TONIGHT
AND MONDAY ESPECIALLY OVR WINDWARD AREAS AND OVER WATER.

HIGH PRES SHIFTS EAST TUE NIGHT WITH LOCAL PRES GRADIENT LOOSENING
QUICKLY AND WINDS DIMINISHING. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO A DECREASE
IN TRADE SHOWER ACTIVITY. WINDS DIMINISH FURTHER THU THROUGH FRI
NIGHT AS LOW PRES FORMS OVR THE WRN ATLC...TRANSLATES EAST AND
LOCAL AREA BECOMES UNDER COL REGION. VERY WARM FRI UNDER LONG
FETCH SRLY FLOW AHEAD OF CDFNT. CDFNT CROSSES THE AREA SAT WITH
NORTHERLIES ESTABLISHING BRINGING COOLER TEMPS AND SHOWERS TO THE
NORTH COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL THE TERMINALS
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...PASSING SHRA THROUGH THE DAY
ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...VCSH AT JSJ AND USVI TERMINALS
DURING SUNDAY MORNING...WITH BRIEF SCT/BKN CIGS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ACROSS EASTERN PR. IN THE AFTERNOON VCSH IN AND AROUND
JBQ/JMZ. LOW LEVEL EAST WINDS 15-25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...NORTH SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY BUT WINDS
WILL STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY WITH 20-25 KT WINDS EXPECTED ON
MONDAY. VERY ROUGH SEAS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY MON-TUE IN ENE WIND WAVES.
WINDS AND SEAS IMPROVE TUE NIGHT ON THROUGH THE END THE WEEK UNTIL
CDFNT REACHES THE LOCAL AREA NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MODELS NOW SHOW MORE OF A ENE FLOW AT THE SFC
TODAY WHICH IS DOWNSLOPE ON THE SOUTH COAST AND TYPICALLY RESULTS
IN VERY LOW RH`S AT CAMP SANTIAGO. SIMILAR EVENTS IN THE PAST HAVE
RESULTED IN MIN_RH`S IN THE 30S THERE. GIVEN THE ALREADY STRONGER
LOW-LEVEL FLOW SEEN ON A RECENT ACARS SOUNDING THAN SUGGESTED BY
GFS THIS BOOSTS MY CONFIDENCE THAT BOTH THE RH AND WIND SPEED
CRITERIA WILL BE MET AT CAMP SANTIAGO THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
WINDS BECOME STRONGER ON MONDAY...MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT
QUICKLY PREVENTING RH`S FROM REACHING CRITICAL LEVELS. SOME DRYING
IS EXPECTED TUE BUT NOT ENOUGH TO BRING RH`S DOWN LOW ENOUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 73 82 72 / 50 70 70 50
STT 85 75 85 75 / 40 50 50 40

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Puerto Rico Weather Jan 12, 2015 4:16:53 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Deleted on Jan 12, 2015 4:16:53 GMT -6

AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
445 AM AST MON JAN 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG WRN ATLC SFC RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE
ECNTRL ATLC TUE WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. A SHEARLINE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SAT WITH
SHIFTING WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG ATLC SFC RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN A VERY TIGHT
PRES GRADIENT TODAY AND SUPPORT WINDY CONDITIONS. MOISTURE
ADVECTION IS FCST THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCT-NMRS
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST PR. A DRYING TREND BEGINS AFTER 18Z
TODAY AND LASTS THROUGH 18Z TUE WITH MOST SHOWERS LIKELY TO BE
GONE AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST INTO ECNTRL
ATLC TUE NIGHT AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH TRADE WINDS
DIMINISHING CONSIDERABLY. FLOW VEERS TO ESE MID WEEK AND SSE BY
LATE WEEK PROMOTING A WARMING TREND. AFTERNOON DEEP CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP WED THROUGH FRI AFTERNOONS OVR NWN/NCNTRL PR AS LOW-MID
LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS PROMOTE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND FURTHER
WEAKENING OF THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE
ON FRI AS FLOW BECOMES MORE SSE BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NE
SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PREFRONTAL TROUGH/SHEARLINE. ACTUAL
CDFNT OR DEWPOINT DISCONTINUITY APPEARS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA BUT SHIFTING WINDS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPS WITH A CHANGE IN
AIR MASS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...PASSING SHRA W/BRIEF SFC WND
GUSTS PSBL UP TO 25 KT AT ALL TAF SITES EXCP AT TJMZ/TJPS.
ALSO...MTN TOP OBSC IN SCT SHRA LOW SCUD CLDS OVR ERN PR THRU
12/14Z. EASTERLY WINDS 15-30 KTS BELOW 5 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS 20-25 KT TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SEAS 7-9 FT. WINDS
AND SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TUE NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
T-STORMS MAY DEVELOP WED-FRI AFTERNOONS OFF OF THE NW AND NCNTRL
PR COASTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DESPITE STRONG WINDS TODAY...MOISTURE ADVECTION IS
FCST THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO KEEP
TEMPS COOLER AND THUS RH`S HIGHER THAN YDAY. SIG DRYING FCST FOR
TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z TUE AND STRONG PRES GRADIENT WILL KEEP
ATMOSPHERE WELL MIXED AND TEMPS UP PREVENTING ANY RH RECOVERY FROM
TODAY`S MIN. ALSO...STRONGER THAN NORMAL ENE DOWNSLOPE FLOW ON THE
SOUTH COAST WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WARMING/DRYING NEAR THE SFC. SO
TUE...IS LIKELY TO START OUT WARM AND DRY WITH LOW MAX RH`S. WINDS
STILL LOOK TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RED FLAGS EARLY BEFORE
THEY START WEAKENING MORE RAPIDLY IN THE AFTERNOON. A FIRE WX
WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR TUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 77 84 78 / 70 50 20 30
STT 84 77 86 78 / 50 20 20 20

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Puerto Rico Weather Jan 13, 2015 4:41:48 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Deleted on Jan 13, 2015 4:41:48 GMT -6

ISSUED 433 AM AST TUE JAN 13 2015/

.SYNOPSIS...ATLC SFC RIDGE WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST WITH TRADE
WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW PRES
FORMS OVR THE SW ATLC WED WITH A SHEARLINE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
SAT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TODAY
AND SUPPORT UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SHARP DRYING THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY. TRADE WINDS ALBEIT WEAKER TODAY STILL SUPPORT BREEZY
CONDITIONS. HEIGHT FALLS TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE-TROUGH CROSSING 80W ATTM WILL PROMOTE MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WITH SHOWERS RETURNING TO THE AREA. WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
THROUGH FRI...SFC-700 MB RIDGE WEAKENS STEADILY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND THIS ALLOWS FOR FURTHER WEAKENING OF THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AND THUS MOISTENING OF THE LOW-MID LEVELS. WINDS
GRADUALLY VEER FROM EAST TODAY TO SOUTHEAST BY FRI AHEAD OF A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH PROMOTING A SIG WARM UP WITH RECORD HIGHS LIKELY
ON FRI. SHEARLINE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SAT WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO NE PROMOTING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE DEEPENING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH FREQ SHOWERS ON THE NORTH COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOISTURE EAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE FCST PERIOD...SPREADING
TO THE USVI AND EASTERN PR TERMINALS...VCSH AND BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. SFC EASTERLY WINDS AT 15-20 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 14Z.

&&

.MARINE...STILL BREEZY TODAY WITH WINDS NEAR 20KT AND SEAS 6-8
FT OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SHARP DRYING EXPECTED TODAY AS UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE INCREASES. SFC DEWPOINTS AT ALL RAWS SITES ALREADY
2-4F DEGS LOWER AND RH`S AS MUCH AS 8% LOWER THAN 24 HRS AGO.
TRADE WINDS ALBEIT WEAKER TODAY STILL EXPECTED TO MEET THE RFW
CRITERIA. A 0545Z ACARS SOUNDING SHOWED 925 MB WINDS OF 25-KT WITH
20-25 KT AVG IN THE LOWEST 0-1KM LAYER. ALSO...SIGNS OF THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STRENGTHENING SUPPORTING THE DRYING TREND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 78 82 78 / 40 70 70 50
STT 85 78 84 78 / 40 50 50 40

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Puerto Rico Weather Jan 14, 2015 4:18:13 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Deleted on Jan 14, 2015 4:18:13 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
518 AM AST WED JAN 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS....RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE TODAY IN RESPONSE TO
MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...THE UPPER RIDGE IS TO REESTABLISH ITSELF ONCE
AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY LOOSEN ITS HOLD OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...AS A FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH FRIDAY. IN DOING SO...THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS TO WEAKEN RESULTING IN DECREASING TRADE WIND FLOW WITH FAIRLY
LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
A FRONTAL SHEAR LINE IS TO STALL ACROSS THE ATLANTIC JUST NORTHWEST
OF THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY WITH WEAKLY INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH
TO SET UP ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SKIES WERE VARIABLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING AS A SURGE
OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND ACCOMPANYING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVED WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
AFFECT MAINLY THE EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS
SOME OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SOME HOWERS WERE MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT BY EARLY MORNING
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WERE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE INTENSITY. LOCAL
WINDS OVER LAND ALSO ALSO DIMINISHED TO 5 TO 10 MPH DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS BUT WERE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH THE PASSING SHOWERS.

DURING THE REST OF THE DAY...EXPECT OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF TRADE
WIND MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. LOCAL FORCING
AND LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE WILL AID IN PRODUCING PERIODS OF SHOWERS
ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL
NOT BE SIGNIFICANT AS THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE OF SHORT DURATION.
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THE PREVAILING EAST SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY AND DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFT FARTHER EAST OF THE REGION. THIS
WILL RESULT IN LESSER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE REGION AND
DECREASING TRADE WIND SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER EXPECT
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AVAILABLE EACH DAY TO AID IN SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS ESPECIALLY DURING
THE EARLY MORNING AND MAINLY OVER THE WEST AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

FOR THE LONG TERM...MODEL SUGGESTS THAT DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
AND SHOWERS ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN USVI AS A FRONTAL SHEAR LINE IS TO
STALL JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION...AND WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. STILL
HOWEVER NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
TIST...TISX AND TJSJ IN PASSING SHOWERS THROUGH 14/16Z. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER TIST...TISX...TNCM...TKPK...AND
TJSJ...FROM 14/12Z THROUGH 14/18Z. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. TJSJ 14/00Z SOUNDING INDICATED AN EASTERLY WIND
FLOW UP TO 20 KNOTS ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 15K
FEET...BECOMING WESTERLY AND STRONGER ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 6 AM AST
THIS MORNING AS SEA CONDITIONS HAVE BEGUN TO SHOW SIGNS OF GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT BASED ON THE LATEST BUOY DATA. SCATTEROMETER WIND
PRODUCTS AS WELL AS THE LOCAL OFFSHORE BUOYS SUGGESTED WINDS OF 15
TO 20 KNOTS...AND SEAS NOW DOWN TO NEAR 7 TO 8 FEET OFFSHORE. NEAR
SHORE SEAS WERE ALSO DOWN TO 6 FEET OR LESS...AND CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE IN RESPONSE TO THE DIMINISHING LOCAL TRADE WINDS. OVERALL
SEAS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH
OF 6 FEET OR LESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS
SHOULD STILL HOWEVER EXERCISE CAUTION DURING THE REST OF TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 81 75 82 70 / 60 40 40 30
STT 84 74 85 75 / 50 40 30 30

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Puerto Rico Weather Jan 15, 2015 4:04:23 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Deleted on Jan 15, 2015 4:04:23 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
347 AM AST THU JAN 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN CONTINUED TO
ENHANCE TRADE WINDS SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN.
SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED AREAS OF SHALLOW MOISTURE
CONTINUED TO MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND AFFECT THE EAST
AND SOUTHEAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS. SO FAR MOST OF THE
SHOWERS OVER LAND HAVE BEEN OF LIGHT INTENSITY AND OF SHORT DURATION...
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS NOTED. STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT FARTHER EAST INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND WHICH IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY STALL
JUST NORTHWEST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE AND THE STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS EAST AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL LOCALLY INDUCE
A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH BY SATURDAY AND ON SUNDAY WITH TRADE WINDS THEN
EXPECTED TO BECOME FAIRLY LIGHT FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EXPECT PERIODS OF SHALLOW MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
PASSING SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE
SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. SOME SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO REACH
SOME OF THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE ISLANDS BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE DUE TO MORE DOMINANT LAND BREEZE. DURING
THE REST OF THE DAY..FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
SOME SHOWERS FORMING DURING THE AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTH CENTRAL INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
OVERALL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL IN MOST AREAS BUT
SOME SHOWERS MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST
PUERTO RICO LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND EXPECT PRETTY MUCH
OF THE SAME WEATHER PATTERN WITH PERIODS OF PASSING EARLY MORNING
SHOWERS AND LIMITED SHOWERS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ISLANDS DURING
THE AFTERNOONS. MOST OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WILL BE DIURNALLY AND
LOCALLY INDUCED DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL TERRAIN FORCING.
LOCAL TRADE WIND SHOULD BECOME FAIRLY LIGHT BY FRIDAY AND OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS IN TURN SHOULD ALLOW FOR BETTER SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE WHICH WILL AID IN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE LOCAL
TERMINALS WITH BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS THROUGH 15/18Z. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER TIST...TISX...TNCM...TKPK...AND
TJSJ...FROM 15/12Z THROUGH 15/18Z. TJBQ MAY OBSERVE SHOWERS AFTER
15/18Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST
INCREASING UP TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 15/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL
WATERS TODAY DUE TO WINDS UP TO 18 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 6 FEET MAINLY
OFFSHORE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL HOWEVER CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO BELOW
6 FEET AND LESS THAN 18 KNOTS BY SATURDAY AND AS THE LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 72 84 73 / 40 30 30 20
STT 85 74 85 74 / 30 20 30 30

Shoutbox

northshoreelise: not on the 12z... Oct 10, 2024 12:15:21 GMT -6

lencast: Really would appreciate it. Thank you, Lena Sept 27, 2024 5:20:46 GMT -6

lencast: I am in Jacksonville, and trying to drive back to New Orleans. Does anyone here know if the I-10 is passable in Lake City and Tallahassee. Sept 27, 2024 5:19:03 GMT -6

tcane: This sure looks like it dies quickly. maybe falling apart before metro New Orleans? Just looking at the lat dozen posts and images here. Sept 10, 2024 11:26:27 GMT -6

rebekahb-Metairie: Looks like it but I wait for the better trained eyes on the forum to respond. Sept 9, 2024 18:52:32 GMT -6

jdschlum-bedico/village of bo: Look further east than the 12z plots don’t it Sept 9, 2024 18:49:34 GMT -6

SKYSUMMIT: Oh sorry guys! I didn't eve see these new messages down here lol Jul 26, 2024 13:14:47 GMT -6

jenniqtip: Just as soon as* sry fat finger Jul 7, 2024 12:53:35 GMT -6

jenniqtip: I donate every year. 😀ju sry as soon as the first area of interest pops up!! I rarely post though so the tag isn’t necessary. Just know I appreciate everything you do!! Jul 7, 2024 12:53:12 GMT -6

larcat: SKYSUMMIT You can slap one on me

Jul 7, 2024 12:12:03 GMT -6

SKYSUMMIT: Thanks laismyhome ! Also, if there is anyone who has donated that has not been given the Supporter tag, please let us know. Jul 7, 2024 4:00:50 GMT -6

laismyhome: Here's a friendly reminder to go make a donation to support this forum that is so full of valuable reliable info. Link to donate is on homepage Jul 2, 2024 9:55:24 GMT -6

Deleted: Ernesto gonna mog hard.
I'm voting Alberto, Ernesto, Rafael and Deshawn Apr 1, 2024 19:15:21 GMT -6

SKYSUMMIT: ShanaBanana Yes...just click the link and then send a PM to either TIgergirl or myself. I can then shoot her a text letting her know and I'll add your supporter tag. THANK YOU!!!! Sept 23, 2023 16:08:37 GMT -6

ShanaBanana: At the risk of this being a dumb question. In order to donate, do I follow the instructions when I click “donate”, and then message tigergirl? I see people comment here that they donated, so I wasn’t sure if that had changed. Sept 20, 2023 10:54:40 GMT -6

SKYSUMMIT: Great to have you back! Sept 11, 2023 12:20:30 GMT -6

virginialee: Hi Skysummit: I was part of this back at the beginning. So happy to be back. Sept 8, 2023 5:08:12 GMT -6

SKYSUMMIT: Thanks to everyone who has recently donated! If I missed anyone and you still need a Supporter Tag, let me know. Sept 7, 2023 13:20:10 GMT -6

akeller11: Just donated Sept 6, 2023 11:11:36 GMT -6

SKYSUMMIT: Thanks guys and gals! You're very much appreciated! Aug 30, 2023 11:48:38 GMT -6

Puerto Rico Weather

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