Puerto Rico Weather

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Puerto Rico Weather Jan 16, 2015 4:44:30 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Jan 16, 2015 4:44:30 GMT -6

AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
532 AM AST FRI JAN 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUED TO PULL FURTHER
EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH THE LOCAL REGION EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWED PATCHES OF SHALLOW TRADE
WIND MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
IN THE PREVAILING SOUTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW. IN THE LOW LEVELS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT FARTHER NORTHEAST AS A DISSIPATING COLD
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHEAR LINE MOVE FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AN ASSOCIATED
SHEAR LINE APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST...IT IS TO INDUCE
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AVAILABLE MOISTURE ALONG WITH LOCAL AND DIURNAL
EFFECTS WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS
OF THE ISLANDS...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER LACKING UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...THE ACTIVITY WILL BE OF SHORT DURATION AND NOT WIDESPREAD.
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND...
THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE SHEAR LINE MOVES FURTHER ACROSS PUERTO
RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS BY SUNDAY. OVERALL EXPECTING LIGHT WINDS
TO PREVAIL...WITH LOCALLY AND DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION MAINLY
OVER PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. LESSER
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER SKIES EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE LOCAL
TERMINALS WITH BRIEF SHOWERS THROUGH 17/17Z...CAUSING VCSH.
AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY CAUSE SHRA/ISOLD TSRA IN AND AROUND TJBQ
AND TJMZ AFTER 16/18Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST
SOUTHEAST UP TO 10 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING...INCREASING UP
TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 16/14Z WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS DEVELOPING AS
WELL.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS 13 TO 19 KNOTS. SMALL BOAT
OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS. WINDS
EXPECTED TO RELAX THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND BECOMING FROM THE
NORTHEAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 72 85 73 / 20 20 20 30
STT 82 74 83 73 / 20 30 30 40

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Puerto Rico Weather Jan 17, 2015 4:20:45 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Jan 17, 2015 4:20:45 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
523 AM AST SAT JAN 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN DURING THE WEEKEND. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT FARTHER
NORTHEASTWARD AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHEAR LINE MOVE
FARTHER EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. AN INDUCED
SURFACE TROUGH WILL APPROACH TO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ONLY LIGHT ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
THIS MORNING. LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY...IF ANY...WAS DETECTED OVER
LAND AREAS SO FAR THIS MORNING. HOWEVER... FEW SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN
THE TRADE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WINDWARD SECTIONS OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE REGION...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL PREVAIL. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE AS THE
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HOWEVER...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ATLANTIC THIS MORNING...WILL PUSH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. THE BOUNDARY REMNANTS ARE
EXPECTED TO MEANDER ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS...TO THE NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. AS THIS HAPPENS AN INDUCE LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP JUST ACROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY AND SUNDAY. THEREFORE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOCAL WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTHEAST LATE
TODAY...BRINGING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECT IN THE WEATHER PATTERN...THEREFORE
EXPECT SMALL AREAS OF MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES PROMOTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FEW SHOWERS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
DURING THE NIGHTS AND EARLY IN THE MORNINGS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT THE LOCAL TERMINALS WITH
MOSTLY CLR SKIES OVER LAND. HOWEVER TIL 17/14Z...PASSING -SHRA/SHRA
EN ROUTE MAINLY OVR OFFSHORE ATL AND CARIBBEAN WATERS. FEW-SCT CLDS
AT FL020 AND FL060 WITH ISOLD TOPS NR FL120. AFTERNOON CONVECTION
MAY CAUSE SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJPS AFTER
17/17Z. EXCEPT OF LOCAL SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS...L/LVL WINDS BLO
FL100 WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST 5-10 KNOTS UNTIL 17/14Z...
THEN BCMG MORE NORTHERLY ABV FL150.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS HAS IMPROVED WITH SEAS OF 5 FEET OR
LESS AND WINDS OF 14 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 74 85 73 / 20 30 30 30
STT 83 73 83 74 / 30 40 40 30

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Puerto Rico Weather Jan 18, 2015 4:35:24 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Jan 18, 2015 4:35:24 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
458 AM AST SUN JAN 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN DURING THE REST OF WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE WILL
CONTINUE A DRY AND STABLE MID TO UPPER LEVEL AIR MASS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMNANTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO AS WELL AS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST OVER THE REGION. THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO LINGER OVER THE REGION TODAY...INDUCING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO THIS
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN A
GENERALLY DRY MID TO UPPER LEVEL AIR MASS...LIMITING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMNANTS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN WILL PROMOTE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. THE LOCAL WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHEAST...BRINGING
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TRADE WINDS
BEGIN RETURN TO NORMAL ON TUESDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...BKN-OVC CLD LYRS BTW FL020-150 ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NOW ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN AND WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PR
AND THE NRN LEEWARDS TIL AT LEAST 18/15Z...BCMG SCT-BKN THEREAFTER.
ISOLD-SCT EMBEDDED -SHRA/SHRA ASSOC W/FRONTAL BNDRY WITH BRIEF MVFR
CONDS DUE TO LOW CLDS AND SHRA EN ROUTE BTW LOCAL ISLANDS. MSTLY SCT
CLDS LYRS OVR TNCM/TKPK. VFR CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS MOST TAF
SITE HOWEVER EXCEPT FOR THE BRIEF MVFR CIGS...MAX TOPS AROUND 150.
THE 18/00Z TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED NW-N WINDS BLO FL100 AT 12 KT
OR LESS...AND 20-28 KTS BTWN FL150-200.

&&

.MARINE...QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAINS FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 14 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 73 84 73 / 30 30 30 30
STT 83 73 82 73 / 40 30 30 40

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Puerto Rico Weather Jan 19, 2015 4:20:29 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Jan 19, 2015 4:20:29 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
613 AM AST MON JAN 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA
WILL RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE WEEK.
A WEAK RIDGE WILL PASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON SATURDAY FROM THE
WEST BUT REMAIN RELATIVELY CLOSE INTO NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH
THE WEEK AND THEN MOVES NORTHEAST NEXT WEEK. MID LEVELS WILL DRY
COMPLETELY TODAY. LIMITED MOISTURE WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY ONLY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK BOUNDARY IS DISSIPATING OVER THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS THIS MORNING. FLOW WILL BECOME WEAK AND VARIABLE
TODAY AND THEN EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL SET IN FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK AS MODEST HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. PATCHY
MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WERE LIMITED OVER THE LOCAL AREA
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE BEST AND STRONGEST SHOWERS AROUND CULEBRA AND
A FEW JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD ALSO BE
SEEN FADING AS IT ENTERED THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS. CURRENTLY THE
GFS IS FORECASTING A VERY DRY AIR MASS TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH
NORTHWEST AFFECTING THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND MOST AREAS NORTH
OF PUERTO RICO`S CORDILLERA CENTRAL. THE WRF IS SHOWING A SIMILAR SHOWER
PATTERN TO WHAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY JUST SOUTH OF THE CORDILLERA...
ONLY A LITTLE STRONGER TODAY. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS GENERATED
BY NORTHERLY FLOW BUTTING UP AGAINST A MODERATE SEA BREEZE FROM
SABANA GRANDE TO PATILLAS...ALTHOUGH THE ACTUAL CITY OF PONCE MAY
RECEIVE VERY LITTLE RAIN. SHOWERS SHOULD NOT PRODUCE MORE THAN
THREE QUARTERS TO ONE INCH ANYWHERE AND MOST AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH
LIGHTER.

AS FLOW TURNS TO THE EAST IN THE LOWER LEVELS...SOME MOISTURE FROM
THE EAST IS MIXED IN. BY WEDNESDAY THE SHOWER FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO
THE WEST NORTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
THE LOCAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING GOOD
CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE CULEBRINAS VALLEY AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODERATE...THE GFS IS FORECASTING A DIP IN
MOISTURE NEXT MONDAY FOLLOWED BY THE BEST MOISTURE OF THE WEEK ON
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ON THE NORTH COAST WILL RISE A LITTLE
AFTER TUESDAY DUE TO WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITE...EXCEPT
FOR BRIEF MVFR CONDS NEAR JPS IN SCT SHRA AFTER 19/16Z. LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN AFT 19/12Z...A NORTHERLY
FLOW BETWEEN 5 AND 15 KTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATION.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS REACHED ALMOST 8 FEET AT THE OUTER BUOY
SUNDAY...AND ARE RUNNING OVER 5 FEET AT THE INNER BUOY. EXPECT
SEAS TO INCREASE A LITTLE BY TUESDAY...BUT CURRENTLY HAVE LITTLE
CONFIDENCE THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED ANYWHERE
THIS WEEK. NEVERTHELESS...SMALL AREAS OF OUR ATLANTIC WATERS MAY
BRIEFLY SEE SOME 7 FOOT SEAS TODAY OR TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 73 84 73 / 10 30 30 30
STT 82 72 83 73 / 10 40 40 10

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Puerto Rico Weather Jan 20, 2015 4:18:42 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Jan 20, 2015 4:18:42 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
538 AM AST TUE JAN 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST SOUTH
AMERICA WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DURING
THE WEEK. A RIDGE WILL PASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND
THE GREATER ANITLLES FROM THE WEST WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH OVERHEAD AND TO THE NORTH WILL
FADE AS TRADE WIND FLOW RESUMES OVER THE LOCAL AREA. BEGINNING
SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC WILL FORM A WELL
DEFINED RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA THAT WILL TURN LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NORTHERLY FLOW DID BECOME NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT AS
EVIDENCED BY CELL MOVEMENT ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. ONLY A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS...LEAVING MOSTLY TRACE AMOUNTS...FORMED NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO AND OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT. A BAND
OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS STRETCHED SOUTHWEST ACROSS BEEF ISLAND
TO WELL SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO
SHIFT FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND THE GFS AND OTHER MODELS ARE
SHOWING A WEAK PERTURBATION PASSING THROUGH FROM THE EAST THAT
WILL CAUSE WINDS AT 850 MB TO TURN EAST SOUTHEAST BY 20/18Z. THIS
WILL CAUSE THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHOWER BAND TO CROSS OVER THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND OVER
EASTERN PUERTO RICO LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. MOST MODELS
AGREE ON SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF PUERTO RICO
GENERALLY NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AFTER 20/18Z LASTING
UNTIL AROUND SUNSET AND FADING DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
BECAUSE OF THE WIND SHIFT...THE LOCATION OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE QUITE DIFFERENT FROM SUNDAY OR MONDAY WHEN SHOWERS
DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THE CORDILLERA.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUITE FAVORABLE
TO SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AND IN FACT...THE GFS SHOWS THE BEST PRECIPITABLE
WATER OF THE WORK WEEK OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

OVER THE WEEKEND A RIDGE BECOMES BETTER DEFINED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA...WHICH WILL GENERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW UP THROUGH 700 MB. THE GFS IS SHOWING UP TO 20
KNOTS AT 850 MB. MOISTURE ALSO DECREASES OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
MONDAY AS THE DRIEST DAY. ALTHOUGH THE SOUTH COAST MAY FIND SOME
RELIEF FROM THE NEARLY 90 DEGREE TEMPERATURES THEY HAVE HAD
RECENTLY...THE NORTH COAST WILL FIND TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE
UPPER 80S BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME AREAS APPROACHING 90
DEGREES. THIS WILL ALSO LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS...AT LEAST UNTIL
TUESDAY.

BEGINNING NEXT TUESDAY THE GFS IS SHOWING A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
HISPANIOLA AND A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH DIRECTLY ACROSS PUERTO RICO
THAT WILL INCREASE MOISTURE AND CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL CHANCES AND AMOUNTS SHOULD
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IF THE MODEL SOLUTION CAN HOLD. AT THIS
POINT THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS MAY NOT SEE ANY OF THESE SHOWERS BUT
MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE FINAL EXACT POSITION OF THE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FEW SHRA MAY CAUSE VCSH AT TJSJ...USVI AND LEEWARD ISLAND TERMINALS
EARLY IN THE MORNING. FOLLOWED BY AFT SHRA OVER THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR...SOME NEAR/OVER TJMZ AND TJBQ AFT 20/17Z. SOME
OF THIS SHRA MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR CONDS. SFC WIND N-NE 5-12 KT
WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFT 20/13Z...AND BCMG EASTERLY AFT
20/18Z.

&&

.MARINE...NORTHWEST SWELL AT BUOY 41047 SHOWED A RAPID DROP IN
SEAS ABOUT 24 HOURS AGO...AND THAT SAME DROP IS NOW BEING SEEN
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. RINCON...WHICH WAS SEEING UP TO 7 FOOT
SEAS...IS NOW BELOW 6 FEET AS IS THE NEAR SHORE SAN JUAN BUOY. THE
OUTER BUOY 41043 WAS REPORTING LESS THAN 7 FEET AT 4 AM AST. THIS
TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS SEAS RELAX IN MOST AREAS. HAVE
TAKEN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DOWN FOR ALL WATERS AFTER 6 AM AST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 73 86 74 / 20 30 20 30
STT 83 73 84 74 / 30 10 10 40

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Puerto Rico Weather Jan 21, 2015 4:11:30 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Jan 21, 2015 4:11:30 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
538 AM AST WED JAN 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY
POSITIONING OVER THE REGION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THEREFORE A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
TODAY. ON THURSDAY...A SURFACE PERTURBATION EMBEDDED IN THE
TRADES WILL ARRIVE AT THE LOCAL AREA CREATING FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
CONDITIONS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREAS
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. FOLLOWED BY A DROP ON THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE...WITH A SIGNIFICANT DROP OF PWAT ON MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE OVER THE LOCAL AREA TODAY...RESULTING
IN FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY...HOWEVER ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD AREAS AND OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN WATERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...
COMBINED WITH DIURNAL AND LOCAL EFFECTS...WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDINESS...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER TRADE WIND EASTERLY PERTURBATION/TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING WITH IT A
SHARP INCREASE ON THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE INTO THE LOCAL AREA. THE
INSTABILITY PRODUCE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD SECTIONS OF PR/USVI AND
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. AFTER THIS PERTURBATION...GFS IS
DRYING THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER WET TRADES ARE
FORECASTED DURING THE WEEKEND PRODUCING PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF PR AND U.S.V.I DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR. A DRYER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY
MORNING BUT PASSING SHOWERS CAN BE RULED OUT FROM THE FORECAST
FROM TIME TO TIME. ALSO...SOUTHEAST WINDS AT LOWER LEVEL WILL
CAUSE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES MAINLY ON THE NORTH COAST OF
PUERTO RICO FROM THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 21/06Z. VCSH ARE POSSIBLE OVER TIST..TISX AND
TJSJ AND AFT 21/18Z YJMZ. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY EAST AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS BCMG ESE AFT 21/18Z. SOME MTN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.

&&

.MARINE...MARINERS CAN EXPECT WINDS OF 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS
OF 3 TO 5 FEET. BEACH GOERS SHOULD BE CAUTIOUS DUE TO A MODERATE
RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG MANY OF THE ATLANTIC BEACHES. AT THIS
MOMENT...NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED AT LEAST UNTIL
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 74 83 74 / 20 20 20 20
STT 83 74 83 74 / 20 40 40 50

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Puerto Rico Weather Jan 22, 2015 4:13:16 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Jan 22, 2015 4:13:16 GMT -6

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
515 AM AST THU JAN 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION AT LEAST
UNTIL TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY...WHEN A POLAR TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO REACH THE EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AND WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC
OCEAN. ON THE OTHER HAND..SURFACE TRADE WIND PERTURBATIONS/TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TODAY INTO SATURDAY.
IN ADDITION...AND AN EAST NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW AT THE SURFACE
WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEKEND WHEN SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A TRADE WIND EASTERLY PERTURBATION/TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN COASTAL AREAS OF PR AND USVI
DURING THE MORNING PERIOD. FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE
LOCAL WATERS. HOWEVER...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE SHALLOW DUE TO
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE REGION.

THE GFS IS STILL SUGGESTING A DRYING TREND AFTER THIS
PERTURBATIONS LEAVES THE AREA ON SATURDAY...HOWEVER WET TRADES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...PASSING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PR AND U.S.V.I DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS WILL CONTINUE...FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
ISLAND. IN ADDITION...SOUTHEAST WINDS AT LOWER LEVELS WILL CAUSE
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES MAINLY ON THE NORTH COAST OF
PUERTO RICO FROM LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

NEXT WEEK A POLAR TROUGH WILL ERODE THE LOCAL RIDGE PATTERN AND A
DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER THE NW ATLC BY TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY... THEREFORE THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MASS OF MOISTURE BRINGING SCT SHRA WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS
TO TJNR AND TJBQ IN ENE FLOW. MTN OBSCURATIONS N AND E PR. SHRA
DVLPG OVR WRN PR AFT 22/16Z WITH BRIEF MVFR TJMZ AND MTN
OBSCURATIONS. LLVL WINDS BLO FL100 ENE 5 TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 5 TO 16 KTS AND SEAS BETWEEN 4 AND 5
FEET ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. FOR THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
EXPECT...WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KTS AND SEAS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FEET. BEACH
GOERS SHOULD BE CAUTIOUS DUE TO A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS
ALONG MANY OF THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 75 85 73 / 30 30 30 20
STT 84 74 84 72 / 30 40 30 20

Deleted

Posts: 0

Puerto Rico Weather Jan 23, 2015 4:26:39 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Deleted on Jan 23, 2015 4:26:39 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
501 AM AST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS..AT UPPER LEVELS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO HELP SUPPORT
TRADE WIND CAP INVERSION AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL
REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION WERE BETWEEN HALF TO ONE INCH. SATELITE IMAGES AND
DOPPLER RADAR DEPICTED A LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NORTH OF
THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...MOVING SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. THIS SWIRL IS PRODUCING
CLOUDINESS WITH SHOWERS ACROSS THIS AREA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO
SO THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT CLOUDINESS WITH SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
MOST OF THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT MORE EASTERLY. AS A
RESULT...BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUS MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN SECTION OF PUERTO RICO.

NEXT FEW DAYS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO HELP SUPPORT TRADE WIND CAP
INVERSION AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK...A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. BY
MID NEXT WEEK...THE CHANCES FOR SOME ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE AS THIS FEATURE MAINTAINS LOCAL AREA UNDER A RELATIVELY
MOIST ENVIRONMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF NE PR THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CONDS ACROSS TJSJ THROUGH AT
LEAST 10Z. OVERALL...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE
TERMINALS WITH VICINITY SHOWERS POSSIBLE. ENE WINDS OF 5-10 KT CAN
BE EXPECTED BELOW FL150 THE REST OF TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
TODAY. SEAS BETWEEN 3-5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 73 85 73 / 40 20 10 20
STT 84 74 83 74 / 30 20 20 10

Deleted

Posts: 0

Puerto Rico Weather Jan 23, 2015 13:40:24 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Deleted on Jan 23, 2015 13:40:24 GMT -6

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
303 PM AST FRI JAN 23 2015

PRC007-025-031-061-063-127-129-139-232200-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0003.150123T1903Z-150123T2200Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CAGUAS PR-GUAYNABO PR-GURABO PR-SAN JUAN PR-SAN LORENZO PR-
TRUJILLO ALTO PR-AGUAS BUENAS PR-CAROLINA PR-
303 PM AST FRI JAN 23 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CAGUAS...GUAYNABO...GURABO...SAN JUAN...SAN LORENZO...TRUJILLO
ALTO...AGUAS BUENAS AND CAROLINA

* UNTIL 600 PM AST

* AT 300 PM AST...LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGER AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED DEVELOPING SHOWERS WITH AREAS OF
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA.
RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS... AND PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS...
HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1829 6592 1818 6600 1828 6614 1833 6614
1842 6605

$$
RAM

Deleted

Posts: 0

Puerto Rico Weather Jan 23, 2015 14:04:37 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Deleted on Jan 23, 2015 14:04:37 GMT -6

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
354 PM AST FRI JAN 23 2015

PRC009-019-021-035-041-045-047-051-105-107-135-143-232200-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0004.150123T1954Z-150123T2200Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BARRANQUITAS PR-BAYAMON PR-CAYEY PR-CIDRA PR-COMERIO PR-COROZAL PR-
NARANJITO PR-OROCOVIS PR-VEGA ALTA PR-AIBONITO PR-DORADO PR-
TOA ALTA PR-
354 PM AST FRI JAN 23 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BARRANQUITAS...BAYAMON...CAYEY...CIDRA...COMERIO...COROZAL...
NARANJITO...OROCOVIS...VEGA ALTA...AIBONITO...DORADO AND TOA
ALTA

* UNTIL 600 PM AST

* AT 350 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SHOWERS WITH AREAS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MOVING ACROSS
THE ADVISORY AREA. RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED
LEVELS ON SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN
AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1839 6621 1816 6620 1810 6625 1814 6631
1817 6633 1816 6635 1818 6639 1828 6639
1833 6637 1835 6638 1840 6636 1840 6626

$$

FIGUEROA

Deleted

Posts: 0

Puerto Rico Weather Jan 24, 2015 4:13:33 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Deleted on Jan 24, 2015 4:13:33 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
524 AM AST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE ERODING EARLY NEXT WEEK. EAST
SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED THRU MONDAY BECOMING SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS A SHEARLINE MOVES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL REACH LOCAL ISLANDS LATE THE UPCOMING
WORKWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVERNIGHT OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS WITH SOME AFFECTING THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
THE SOUTH...EAST AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TODAY. LATEST COMPUTER
GUIDANCE INDICATED MOISTURE WILL BE AT BEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM 1.4 TO 1.7
INCHES. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN THE LATE
MORNING ACROSS EASTERN PR AND THEN ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO
IN THE AFTERNOON SINCE THE WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE
EAST SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST. THEN MOISTURE SHOULD DECREASE FOR
SUNDAY AND SHOWER ACTIVITY BECOMING MORE LIMITED.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
LOCAL REGION...INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION. BEFORE THE FRONT...ON TUESDAY...A SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT DEEP MOISTURE TO THE AREA...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
AS WINDS SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF LOCAL FLYING AREA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. VCSH POSSIBLE ACROSS TJSJ...TIST AND
TISX THE REST OF THE MORNING. AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER NW
PR...RESULTING IN MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDS IN AND
AROUND TJBQ AND TJSJ BETWEEN 17Z-21Z. IN GENERAL...NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER IMPACT IS EXPECTED AT THIS MOMENT. E TO ESE WINDS OF 5-15 KT
CAN BE EXPECTED BELOW FL150.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 74 87 73 / 40 20 20 10
STT 83 74 84 74 / 40 20 20 20

Deleted

Posts: 0

Puerto Rico Weather Jan 25, 2015 4:30:53 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Deleted on Jan 25, 2015 4:30:53 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
525 AM AST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ERODING GRADUALLY
DUE TO A STRONG UPPER TROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY...BECOMING SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS A SHEARLINE APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA...STAYING TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF PUERTO RICO BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS
OBSERVED. HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES
DOMINATING THE LOCAL REGION. VERY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ON TUESDAY...A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED AS AN AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE
AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TO 1.9 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. A SLOT OF DRIER AIR IS
THEN EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE AREA BY
MID WEEK. HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT...WILL
INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL
SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY NEXT FEW DAYS. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO
RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD. BRIEF MVFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 25/17Z-21Z AT
TJMZ/TJBQ IN SHRA. ESE AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL BELOW FL050
WITH SOME SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFT 25/15Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 73 88 74 / 10 30 30 10
STT 83 74 84 75 / 20 20 20 20

Deleted

Posts: 0

Puerto Rico Weather Jan 26, 2015 4:27:30 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Deleted on Jan 26, 2015 4:27:30 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
520 AM AST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS DOMINATING THE LOCAL REGION.
A FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE CAP WILL MAINTAIN A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. THEN...A POLAR TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATER TODAY...FLATTENING/WEAKENING THE RIDGE
ALOFT. AT LOW LEVELS...PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/SHEARLINE APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL ALLOW WINDS TO VEER FROM THE SOUTHEAST
ON TUESDAY. THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE ISLANDS WILL DESTABILIZE EVEN
MORE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH/PERTURBATION
ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT ANALYSIS AS WELL AS LOCAL
SOUNDING HAVE SHOWED BELOW NORMAL MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN REGION TODAY. AS A RESULT...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN MINIMAL ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI OVERNIGHT. THIS DRY
AND STABLE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN...
DEEPER MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES WILL ADVENT OVER THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE
MAINLY OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND THE SOUTH COASTAL SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO...FOLLOWING BY A ROUND OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO. DRIER TRADE WINDS WILL
ADVECT OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...KEEPING THE PROBABILITY OF
SHOWERS AROUND 20 PERCENT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SW
ATLANTIC WILL BRING COLDER AIR ALOFT AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
LATER THIS WEEK. THE INFLOW OF MID-UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL LIKELY
ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE
BEST UPPER DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...WHERE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP IN AND AROUND THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT IN THE GLOBAL MODELS
FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. BUT IN GENERAL...MOISTURE
WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA...FAVORING A RELATIVELY STABLE
PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES
WITH BRIEF SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TISX...TIST AND TJSJ.
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE BETWEEN 26/17Z AND
26/20Z AT TJMZ/TJBQ IN SHRA. ESE WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
SOME SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFT 26/15Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FEET WITH
OCCASIONAL SEAS OF 5 FEET ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS MOST OF THE
WEEK. TWO PULSES OF NW SWELLS OF AROUND 4-5 FEET ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA ALL WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 74 87 74 / 20 20 40 20
STT 84 75 84 74 / 20 20 40 20

Deleted

Posts: 0

Puerto Rico Weather Jan 27, 2015 4:08:30 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Deleted on Jan 27, 2015 4:08:30 GMT -6

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
530 AM AST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS TROUGH PATTERN ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/SHEARLINE WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. POLAR TROUGH WILL LIFT AWAY DURING THE WEEKEND.
MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
REGION HAS PUSHED A BAND OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN
WATERS AND MONA PASSAGE. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
COAST PR DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS AREA OF HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...FAVORING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF PR/USVI...ESPECIALLY
NW PR THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A DRIER AIR MASS
WILL ADVECT OVER THE LOCAL REGION REDUCING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
PR/USVI.

TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL FAVOR THE INFLOW
OF MID-UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...FAVORING DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...
SURFACE TROUGH/SHEAR LINE WILL RELOCATE OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
PROMOTING MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER PR/USVI LATER THIS WEEK. THE ENHANCE
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MAY RESULT IN
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE DURING THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TROUGH LIFTS OUT
AND DEEP LAYER RIDGE SLOWLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. IF THIS SCENARIO
VERIFIES...A RELATIVELY STABLE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL DURING THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES
WITH BRIEF SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TISX...TIST...TNCM..AND
TKPK. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE BETWEEN 27/17Z AND
27/22Z AT TJMZ/TJBQ IN SHRA. SE WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SOME
SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFT 27/15Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FEET WITH
OCCASIONAL SEAS OF 5 FEET ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS MOST OF THE
WEEK. PULSES OF NW SWELLS OF AROUND 4-5 FEET WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES LATE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
AND LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA ALL WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 73 86 73 / 20 10 40 40
STT 84 75 83 74 / 20 20 30 30

Deleted

Posts: 0

Puerto Rico Weather Jan 27, 2015 13:25:10 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Deleted on Jan 27, 2015 13:25:10 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
257 PM AST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...THE RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MOVE EASTWARD
AS A TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTH AND A SUB TROPICAL JET PASSES OVER
OUR LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN SLOWLY RETURN TO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN AS A TROUGH
PASSES TO THE NORTH ON AN EASTWARD TRAJECTORY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
CONTINUES OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND GREATER ANITLLES THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. AT 700 MB THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

AT LOWER LEVELS...THE DEEP LOW THAT BROUGHT SO MUCH WIND AND SNOW
TO NEW ENGLAND HAS A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA AND
THAT WILL PASS BY THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER
HAITI WILL NOT PASS OVER THE AREA THERE WILL BE SOME CONVERGENCE
AND PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA...THAT WILL BRING
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH AND FRIDAY. FLOW TURNS EASTERLY OVER THE
WEEKEND AND SOUTHEASTERLY THEREAFTER WITH MODEST MOISTURE
THROUGHOUT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOUTHEAST FLOW PERSISTED THROUGH THE DAY AND THE
MOISTURE GENERATING THE SHOWERS OVER THE CARIBBEAN MOVED OVER THE
LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE DAY SPAWNING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS A
WIDE AREA...BUT MAINLY WEST OF SAINT THOMAS ANS SAINT CROIX. A
BAND OF DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER BAND OF
MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWING APPROXIMATELY THE SAME TRAJECTORY
WITH MUCH THE SAME RESULT. A WEAK SHEAR LINE WILL MAKE ITS
PRESENCE FELT OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND...COUPLED WITH THE
JET ALOFT...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED. SURFACE WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY THURSDAY NIGHT...AFTER THE SHEAR-LINE FROM
THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH PASSES OVER THE AREA. BUT...AS THE
WEAK RIDGE TO OUR NORTH EXTENDS FARTHER THE FLOW WILL BECOME EASTERLY
AND MORNING SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE NORTHEASTERN COASTS
MORE. FINALLY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK...FLOW WILL AGAIN BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
AND THE NORTH COAST WILL BE MORE SHELTERED FROM THE PASSING
SHOWERS...WHILE THE SOUTHEAST RECEIVES MORE SHOWERS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED PRETTY MUCH EVERY AFTERNOON IN WESTERN PUERTO
RICO THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO MODERATE MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.4 AND 1.7 INCHES UNTIL
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE UNTIL 22Z
AT TJMZ/TJBQ IN SHRA. BKN-OVC LAYER ABOVE FL100 OVER WESTERN
PR...SOME CLOUDINESS SPREADING EASTWARD THRU TONIGHT. SE WINDS AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS. VFR ACROSS THE REST OF THE TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE IN THE ATLANTIC THROUGH 2
FEBRUARY...BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED THIS WEEK.
THE CARIBBEAN WILL BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN SEAS
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WINDS REMAIN MODERATE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 86 73 85 / 10 40 40 40
STT 74 83 74 84 / 30 40 40 40

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Deleted: Ernesto gonna mog hard.
I'm voting Alberto, Ernesto, Rafael and Deshawn Apr 1, 2024 19:15:21 GMT -6

SKYSUMMIT: ShanaBanana Yes...just click the link and then send a PM to either TIgergirl or myself. I can then shoot her a text letting her know and I'll add your supporter tag. THANK YOU!!!! Sept 23, 2023 16:08:37 GMT -6

ShanaBanana: At the risk of this being a dumb question. In order to donate, do I follow the instructions when I click “donate”, and then message tigergirl? I see people comment here that they donated, so I wasn’t sure if that had changed. Sept 20, 2023 10:54:40 GMT -6

SKYSUMMIT: Great to have you back! Sept 11, 2023 12:20:30 GMT -6

virginialee: Hi Skysummit: I was part of this back at the beginning. So happy to be back. Sept 8, 2023 5:08:12 GMT -6

SKYSUMMIT: Thanks to everyone who has recently donated! If I missed anyone and you still need a Supporter Tag, let me know. Sept 7, 2023 13:20:10 GMT -6

akeller11: Just donated Sept 6, 2023 11:11:36 GMT -6

SKYSUMMIT: Thanks guys and gals! You're very much appreciated! Aug 30, 2023 11:48:38 GMT -6

Puerto Rico Weather

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