Puerto Rico Weather

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Puerto Rico Weather Jul 2, 2013 13:15:17 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Jul 2, 2013 13:15:17 GMT -6

It looks like the 4th of July weekend will be with variable weather between sun and some scattered showers.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
248 PM AST TUE JUL 2 2013

.DISCUSSION...EARLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS HAVE SLOWLY DECREASED...HOWEVER
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO ENTER THE
LOCAL AREA FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. THE 700 MB ANALYSIS
DEPICTS A WEAK TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED WEST OF THE REGION. THIS
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO REMAIN MAINLY FROM THE NORTHEAST...SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE OVER PR MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH AND EAST COASTS...AND WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING AND
GEOGRAPHIC EFFECTS...POSSIBLY ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS THE
WESTERN AREA OF PR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE GFS REL
HUM IS SOMEWHAT SHALLOW...THE PRECIP WATER ON THE 12 Z SOUNDING
REMAINS HIGH AT AROUND 2 IN AND RELATIVELY MOIST SURFACE
CONDITIONS.

THE GFS INDICATES ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING THE LOCAL REGION
BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS LIMITED DURING
ITS PASSAGE...INDICATING SUGGESTING GOOD PRECIPITATION...BUT
LIMITED EXPECTATION FOR FLOODING. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO MAINLY EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN SOUTHEAST ON
THURSDAY. THE GFS SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH CROSSING THROUGH THE REGION
SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN BRINGING IN MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
WITH A DEEPER MOISTURE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...HEAVY SHOWERS WERE MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA BUT
BROUGHT MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO BOTH VSBYS AND CIGS. ALSO SOME
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WERE OCCURRING. EXPECT CONDS TO IMPROVE IN
THE WEST HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND GENERALLY REMAIN VFR IN THE USVI
AND LEEWARD ISLANDS. CONDS WILL DETERIORATE AFT 03/12Z AS NEXT
TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. AFT 03/16Z SHRA AND
TSTMS WILL DEVELOP OVER INTERIOR PUERTO RICO WITH LCL MVFR AND
AREAS OF MTN OBSCURATIONS. LLVL WINDS E 10 TO 20 KTS EXCEPT NEAR
25 KT BTWN 4-8 KFT. THE TROP WAVE WILL ARRIVE AFT 03/22Z IN PR AND
THE USVI.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS REMAIN BETWEEN 10 TO 20 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 6
FT FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AT
THIS TIME SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 7 FEET...BUT
CONDITIONS WILL BE WATCHED FOR AN INCREASE DUE TO THE APPROACHING
TROPICAL WAVES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 86 78 87 / 60 20 60 60
STT 77 90 79 89 / 50 30 60 60

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 67,639 Location: Ponchatoula, LA Staff Member	Puerto Rico Weather Jul 2, 2013 13:21:17 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jul 2, 2013 13:21:17 GMT -6 Seems like every couple days you have a tropical wave moving through
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Deleted Posts: 0	Puerto Rico Weather Jul 3, 2013 4:20:49 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Deleted on Jul 3, 2013 4:20:49 GMT -6 Jul 2, 2013 13:21:17 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT said: Seems like every couple days you have a tropical wave moving through Yes,and that is not normal to have many waves in June and July. A sign of tough times to come?

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Puerto Rico Weather Jul 3, 2013 4:21:03 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Jul 3, 2013 4:21:03 GMT -6

Good morning. Variable weather between sun and scattered showers will dominate during this long 4th of July weekend.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
443 AM AST WED JUL 3 2013

.DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AGAIN THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
WATERS AND ALL SHORES EXCEPT SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PR. THE SHOWERS
EXTEND UPSTREAM TO WELL EAST OF 60W BUT WARM CLOUD TOPS SUGGEST NO
THUNDERSTORM IN THE BUNCH. EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE MOVING ONSHORE
THIS MORNING THEN THE FOCUS TURNS ONCE AGAIN TO WESTERN PR WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDER.

WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ABOUT 61W THIS MORNING MOVING WEST 20 KT. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER TO REMAIN SHORT OF 2 INCHES AS IT PASSES BY
TONIGHT. BUT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AGAIN TONIGHT BEFORE WE GET SOME
RELATIVELY DRY AIR FOLLOWING THE WAVE THU-SUN. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
TO ARRIVE MON.

SEVERAL TUTT TROUGHS TO PASS BY IN THE NEXT WEEK NORTH OF 20N. GFS
HAS BEEN UNDERESTIMATING THE SPEED OF PROGRESSION AS THEY MOVE
WEST. THE TIMING OF THESE TROUGHS APPEAR THAT THEY WILL NOT
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BUT MUST SEE IF GFS IS NOT STILL TOO
SLOW IN THEIR PROGRESS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE NEAR TJMZ AND TJBQ BETWEEN 01/18Z-21Z. LLVL WINDS WILL
REMAIN FM THE ESE AT AROUND 10-20 KT.

&&

.MARINE...ASCAT SATELLITE WINDS CONFIRM GFS/SWAN IN INCREASING THE
TRADES SLIGHTLY UPSTREAM (20-23 KT) ALONG WITH A LONG FETCH. THIS
HAS BOOSTED THE SEAS PAST 7 FT AT BUOYS 41043 AND 41044...AND SAN
JUAN HAS APPROACHED 5 FT. EXPECT OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS TO REACH
7-8 FT TODAY THEN DROP ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN
ATLANTIC WEAKENS A BIT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 76 88 78 / 70 60 60 30
STT 88 78 89 80 / 70 60 60 30

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Puerto Rico Weather Jul 3, 2013 12:59:34 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Jul 3, 2013 12:59:34 GMT -6

Yet another wave will move thru PR on the 4th holiday bringing another round of showers.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
243 PM AST WED JUL 3 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL GENERATE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE LOCAL
WATERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS. SAHARAN
AIR LAYER WILL ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A SLOT OF DRY AIR AT MID LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE
MOVED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...LIMITING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. 03/12Z
TJSJ SOUNDING DEPICTED DRY AIR AT 700MB AND ABOVE...WITH BETTER
MOISTURE CONFINED IN THE LOWER LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE. IN
ADDITION...FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW AT THE SURFACE HAS
PUSHED THE SHOWERS QUICKLY TO THE WEST...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL ACCUMULATION OBSERVED. THIS AREA OF DRY AIR...WILL EXIT
THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT...AS A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE LOCAL
AREA FROM THE EAST. ALTHOUGH THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS WEAK...WILL
BRING ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THE WAVE WILL EXIT THE LOCAL AREA
LATE THURSDAY.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...NAAPS AEROSOL MODEL INDICATED A SAHARAN
AIR LAYER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING HAZY SKIES TO THE
AREA. THIS WILL LIMIT ALSO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER ACROSS THE
AREA. IN THE LONG TERM...ONLY PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE
FORECAST TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION FROM TIME TO TIME...WITHOUT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT AFFECTING THE LOCAL REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS OVER TJMZ THROUGH AT
LEAST 03/22Z BUT GENERALLY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...AS
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...BUOY 41043 WAS SHOWING 7.5 FEET AT 8 SECONDS AT 230 PM
AST. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUES IN EFFECT...AS WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DECREASE UNTIL AT LEAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SEAS UP
TO 7 FEET AND WINDS OP TO 21 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 87 78 87 / 60 60 30 30
STT 78 89 80 88 / 60 60 30 30

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Puerto Rico Weather Jul 3, 2013 20:39:26 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Jul 3, 2013 20:39:26 GMT -6

A rainy 4th of July day here with the wave moving thru.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
903 PM AST WED JUL 3 2013

.UPDATE...THE TROPICAL WAVE IS NOW ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN A BAND ALMOST 250 MILES WIDE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALREADY PEPPER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND A FEW ARE MOVING
EAST THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN. ONE PARTICULARLY VIGOROUS LINE IS
MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND WAS APPROACHING
ARECIBO AS OF 8:48 PM AST. IT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ALONG THE
COAST WITH SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN THE
EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
NO CHANGES TO NEAR TERM GRIDS OR THE THINKING OF THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION. SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE GRIDS THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...AS THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS LOOKS A
LITTLE BETTER.

&&

.AVIATION...
A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING TRADE WIND
SHWRS ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST THU MORNING. THEREFORE...
PASSING SHRA COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS OVER MOST OF
THE LOCAL TAF SITES...EXCEPT TJMZ...TJBQ AND TJPS. TJSJ 04/00
SOUNDING INDICATED EASTERLY WINDS OF 15-20 KT BLW FL050. SHRA AND
TSTMS WILL FORM IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO AFT 04/15Z TO GENERATE
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND MVFR CONDS...MAINLY AT TJMZ AND TJBQ.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK OVERNIGHT AND BUOY 41043 HAD
8.5 FOOT SEAS IN THE LAST SEVERAL READINGS AND HAD DROPPED TO 8.2
FEET. IN THE CARIBBEAN NEAR SHORE WINDS HAVE ABATED AND SEAS
REMAINED BELOW 4 FEET THERE. AFTER THE TROPICAL WAVE PASSES WINDS
AND SEAS WILL ABATE AND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN THE OUTER
ATLANTIC WATERS WILL EXPIRE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

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Puerto Rico Weather Jul 4, 2013 4:07:39 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2013 4:07:39 GMT -6

Good morning. Tropical Wave is moving thru PR today bringing scattered showers.Drier weather will arrive by tonight.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
431 AM AST THU JUL 4 2013

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY PASSING
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH A VERY WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE...MOST NOTICABLE IN A WATER VAPOR LOOP OR AS THE LOW LEVEL
THETA-E RIDGE. SHOWERS HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY DROPPED OFF IN THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS AND EXPECT A SIMILAR REDUCTION IN SHOWERS FOR USVI
AND EXTREME EASTERN PR BY ABOUT NOON. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
AGAIN FIRE OVER WESTERN PR THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS WITH SMALL
STREAM OR URBAN FLOODING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER BELOW 1.5 INCHES IS APPROACHING FROM THE EAST
BUT MOST OF AIR THAT DRY WILL PASS THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN. AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FRI-SAT.

TUTT TYPE OF TROUGHS TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
BETWEEN 20N AND 30N...KEEPING THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NICELY SHEARED
WITH WESTERLIES ALOFT AND TROPICAL WAVES FROM DEVELOPING MUCH.
NEXT WAVE TO ARRIVE HERE CURRENTLY NEAR 45W...SCHEDULED BY GFS TO
ARRIVE SAT BUT WILL HAVE MOISTURE TRAILING WELL BEHIND. ATTM SEE
NO SIGNIFICANT EVENT WITHIN THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING TRADE WIND
SHWRS ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 04/15Z.
THEREFORE...PASSING SHRA COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS TNCM...TKPK...TIST AND TJSJ. AFTER 04/17 THIS
MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL ISLANDS EFFECTS
TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS TJMZ
AND TJBQ. TJSJ 04/00 SOUNDING INDICATED EASTERLY WINDS OF 15-20 KT
BLW FL050.

&&

.MARINE...SEA LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE
SLACKENED OVER LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS TO
PUSH SEAS TO 6 FEET OR LESS THEREAFTER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 77 87 77 / 50 40 40 30
STT 88 79 88 78 / 60 50 50 40

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Puerto Rico Weather Jul 4, 2013 14:15:02 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Jul 4, 2013 14:15:02 GMT -6

Good weather will prevail for most of the weekend but another Tropical Wave will arrive next Thursday.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
257 PM AST THU JUL 4 2013

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
NEXT FEW DAYS. SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION
TOMORROW AND SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED MOST OF THE MORNING AND
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER
THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WERE BETWEEN ONE TO TWO INCHES IN SOME PLACES. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATED NEAR SUNSET.

LATEST SATELITE IMAGES SHOWS AN AREA OF DRY AIR STARTING TO MOVE
FROM THE EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THIS AREA OF DRY AIR...IS
ACCOMPANY BY SAHARAN DUST...WHICH WILL SPREAD WESTWARD NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS. THEREFORE...LIMIT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. LATEST 04/12Z
SJU-GFS COMPUTER MODEL INDICATED THETAE VALUES AT 700MB WILL DROP
TO NEAR 320K BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THESE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY...AS PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. IN THE
LONG TERM....A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA
THURSDAY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...TEMPO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS TJMZ THROUGH AT LEAST 04/22Z IN +SHRA/+TSRA.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH 05/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...LATEST 41043 BUOY OBSERVATION SHOWED SEAS BELOW 7 FEET
AND SLOWLY SUBSIDING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED...BUT
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS ALL WATERS
EXCEPT THE NEAR SHORE WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 87 77 86 / 20 20 30 30
STT 79 88 78 88 / 20 20 40 40

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Puerto Rico Weather Jul 5, 2013 4:33:37 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2013 4:33:37 GMT -6

Good morning. The next two days will be with good weather for PR but by Sunday,another Tropical Wave will arrive bringing scattered showers.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
511 AM AST FRI JUL 5 2013

SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
NEXT FEW DAYS. SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY SUNDAY.

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS WITHOUT AFFECTING ANY LANDMASS. ALTHOUGH A MUCH
DRIER AIR MASS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY AND
SATURDAY...AFTERNOON CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED FOR BOTH
DAYS...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF PUERTO RICO.

HIS AREA OF DRY AIR...IS ACCOMPANY BY SAHARAN DUST...WHICH WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED AT
AROUND 51 WEST...IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND AFFECT
OUR LOCAL REGION LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED TO THIS WAVE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CLOUD COVERAGE AND THE CHANCES OF
RAIN ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJMZ BETWEEN 05/17Z-21Z AS WELL AS
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION OVER WESTERN INTERIOR PR. LLVL WINDS WILL
REMAIN FROM THE EAST AT 20 KT OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
NEXT FEW DAYS. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS DUE TO WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 77 86 77 / 20 30 30 50
STT 88 78 88 79 / 20 40 40 40

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Puerto Rico Weather Jul 5, 2013 13:49:31 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2013 13:49:31 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
249 PM AST FRI JUL 5 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL GENERATE
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.
SAHARAN DUST WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. A
TROPICAL WAVE WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
PREVAILED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. AN AREA OF VERY DRY AIR MOVED OVER THE AREA TODAY...WITH
LATEST 05/12Z TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATING 700MB THETAE VALUES AT 318K.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CAME AT ONLY 1.4 INCHES...WHICH IS
RELATIVE LOW FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THIS DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE
LEADING EDGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WAVE
WAS LOCATED NEAR 54 WEST LONGITUDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BETTER
MOISTURE FROM THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING...AND WILL
LINGER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS
WAVE...ANOTHER WAVE WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY...INCREASING
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE LONG TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VERY BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT TJMZ THROUGH AT LEAST 05/22Z. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 06/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 21 KNOTS OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST COASTAL
WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 86 77 88 / 20 30 50 50
STT 78 88 79 89 / 20 30 40 40

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Puerto Rico Weather Jul 6, 2013 3:51:35 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Deleted on Jul 6, 2013 3:51:35 GMT -6

Good morning. PR and adjacent islands will be affected by two Tropical Waves that will move thru in the next few days bringing scattered showers with some gusts.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
506 AM AST SAT JUL 6 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
GENERATE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK. TROPICAL WAVES OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL
BRING INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AFFECTING THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
EAST COAST OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT THIS
MOMENT...NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTED
FROM THESE SHOWERS.

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REFLECTION JUST TO THE EAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA WILL COMBINE WITH A TROPICAL WAVE TODAY AND GENERATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS ON MONDAY.

MODELS SUGGEST A MORE ORGANIZED TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
LOCAL REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS SUGGESTING WINDS AT AROUND
30 MPH AND THE WAVE WATCH 3 MODEL IS ALSO SUGGESTING WAVE HEIGHTS OF
9 TO 12 FEET. I BELIEVE THAT THE MODELS ARE BEING TO AGGRESSIVE AND
WENT WITH A MORE CONSERVATIVE FORECAST WITH WINDS BETWEEN 17 TO
21 AND SEAS PEAKING AT 7 FEET. WE WILL MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS WAVE AND MODIFY THE FORECAST AS THE TIME GOES BY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. PASSING SHRA ACROSS THE
AREA WILL BRIEFLY AFFECTING TIST...TISX...AND POSSIBLY TJSJ DURING
THE REST OF THE MORNING. WIND IS EXPECTED FROM THE EAST TO ENE AT
AROUND 10KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM
THE EAST TO EAST NORTHEAST GENERALLY AROUND 15KTS AND GUSTY.
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT AFTER 06/16Z COULD CAUSE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS PR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS TJMZ.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK GENERATING CHOPPY SEAS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. TROPICAL WAVE EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL BRING INCREASED ON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. ON WEDNESDAY A MORE ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY
INCREASE ON SEAS...WINDS AND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 76 86 78 / 20 50 50 50
STT 88 79 89 80 / 30 40 40 60

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Puerto Rico Weather Jul 6, 2013 13:41:25 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Jul 6, 2013 13:41:25 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
309 PM AST SAT JUL 6 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FEW DAYS. A
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
A VERY STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED IN THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC...WILL APPROACH THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE HAS INCREASE TODAY...AS WEAK TROPICAL WAVE
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE. FRESH
TRADE WINDS HAVE PUSHED THE ACTIVITY QUICKLY TOWARD THE WEST
...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. LATEST TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS MOIST EXTEND FEW HUNDRED MILES
EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN LOCAL AREA UNDER
RELATIVELY WET PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. IN FACT...COMPUTER
MODEL INDICATED LOCAL AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MOIST DURING MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.

THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THIS AFTERNOON IS A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE WHICH
WAS LOCATED LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC.
THIS TROPICAL WAVE...PER LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM THE NHC
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH NEXT FEW DAYS.
LATEST COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATED THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. 06/12Z GFS IS SHOWING WINDS BETWEEN 30 TO 35 KTS ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN WATERS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. WE WILL MONITOR THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS WAVE AND MODIFY THE FORECAST AS THE TIME GOES
BY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
06/22Z IN AND AROUND TJMZ. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH ATL EAST
07/12Z....WITH SOME PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 21 KNOTS OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 87 78 87 / 50 50 50 50
STT 79 89 80 89 / 40 40 60 60

Deleted

Posts: 0

Puerto Rico Weather Jul 7, 2013 4:40:12 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Deleted on Jul 7, 2013 4:40:12 GMT -6

Good morning. All eyes are on 95L wave to see how it will affect the Eastern Caribbean islands in terms of being a wave or more developed than that.Stay tuned.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
440 AM AST SUN JUL 7 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
GENERATE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK. A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD
AND REACH OUR LOCAL REGION LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. PASSING SHOWERS ALSO AFFECTED THE USVI AND THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS AFTERNOON...AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL
COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN HALF AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE AT AROUND SUNSET.

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING AT AROUND 25 MPH...THEREFORE
MODIFIED THE WEATHER ARRIVAL. MODELS ARE NOW SUGGESTING THE
ARRIVAL OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER TO BEGIN LATE TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS
WAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS BY AS A OPEN WAVE...CITIZEN SHOULD
MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA THRU 07/16Z. PASSING SHRA WILL BRIEFLY AFFECT
TJSJ...TIST AND TISX PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.
AFT 07/14Z SHRA WILL INCREASE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND SPREAD WEST
THROUGH TIST AND TISX WITH GREATER AREAS OF MVFR. SHRA WILL ALSO
INCREASE OVER INTERIOR PUERTO RICO AND TJMZ WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. WINDS EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT IN HEAVY SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
NEXT WEEK...THESE WILL GENERATE CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. BEFORE MENTIONED STRONG TROPICAL
WAVE...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SEAS UP
TO 12 FEET ASSOCIATED TO THIS WAVE...WENT WITH A CONSERVATIVE
FORECAST WITH FORECAST SEAS UP TO 7 FEET. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROPICAL WAVE AND MODIFY THE
FORECAST AS NEEDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 78 87 78 / 50 50 50 50
STT 89 80 89 80 / 30 60 60 50

Deleted

Posts: 0

Puerto Rico Weather Jul 7, 2013 14:06:23 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Deleted on Jul 7, 2013 14:06:23 GMT -6

Statement by the San Juan NWS.

ASCAT SATELLITE NICELY CAPTURED A NICE TIGHT CIRCULATION AROUND
THE DEVELOPING LOW THIS MORNING (1325Z) AND THE LOCATION OF THE
ITCZ TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST. LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 9.5/42.5W MOVING
WEST 20 KT OR MORE AND WILL INCREASE SPEED SOME TONIGHT/MON. SO
FAR IT IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ AND ESSENTIALLY SHIELDED FROM THE
HUGE MASS OF SAHARAN AIR DIRECTLY NORTH OF IT. ONCE IT LEAVES THE
ITCZ IT MUST ENTRAIN AT LEAST SOME OF THAT AIR WHICH IS A STRONG
NEGATIVE FACTOR IN ITS DEVELOPMENT...SO IS THE EXPECTED FAST PACE.
BUT IT ALREADY HAS A GOOD CIRCULATION AND CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER AND SHORT TERM DEVELOPMENT SEEMS A GOOD BET. THIS SYSTEM
WILL LIKELY PASS SOUTH OF PR/USVI LATE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AND IS
TOO EARLY TO NARROW DOWN WHERE (OR IF) STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR HERE.

Deleted

Posts: 0

Puerto Rico Weather Jul 8, 2013 4:12:23 GMT -6

Quote

Post by Deleted on Jul 8, 2013 4:12:23 GMT -6

Good morning. All eyes are on TS Chantal as it makes the approach to the Lesser Antilles bringing squally weather to the region.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
506 AM AST MON JUL 8 2013

SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
GENERATE A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL LOCATED ABOUT 1250 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
PUERTO RICO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AND REACH
OUR LOCAL FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERS TOMS MOVED ON SHORE AND AFFECTED THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES
ASSOCIATED TO THESE SHOWERS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH
LOCAL EFFECTS TO GENERATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO AND LATER THEY WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTH AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THE USVI COULD ALSO EXPERIENCE SHOWERS AS
CU LINES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS. MOST OF THESE
SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE AT AROUND SUNSET. TUESDAY...EXPECT SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

THE TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL...AT 5 AM WAS LOCATED AT 10.4 N AND
49.5 W. OR ABOUT 1250 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. THE
OFFICIAL TRAJECTORY FORECAST MAINTAINS THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM
ABOUT 115 MILES SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. IF THIS FORECAST TRAJECTORY
VERIFY EXPECT CONDITIONS TO QUICKLY DETERIORATE ON TUESDAY
EVENING. ACTIVE WEATHER CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED TO CHANTAL WILL BE
AFFECTING THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS...GUSTY CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUS
MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA THRU 08/14Z. PASSING SHRA WILL BRIEFLY AFFECT TJPS
PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. AFT 08/14Z SHRA WILL
INCREASE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND SPREAD WEST THROUGH TIST AND
TISX WITH GREATER AREAS OF MVFR. SHRA WILL ALSO INCREASE OVER
INTERIOR PUERTO RICO AND TJMZ WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS. WINDS EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KT IN HEAVY SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...LOW LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS WEST ATLANTIC TO MAINTAIN
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES THROUGH MON WITH SEAS TO STAY 6 FT OR
UNDER. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS CHANTAL MOVES
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 79 85 78 / 40 30 80 80
STT 89 80 91 79 / 30 20 70 70

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Puerto Rico Weather

Post by Deleted on Jul 2, 2013 13:15:17 GMT -6

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Post by Deleted on Jul 3, 2013 4:20:49 GMT -6

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