Post by Deleted on Jun 27, 2013 13:39:26 GMT -6
Good afternoon. Tropical Wave will approach the area by Sunday bringing some squally weather.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
325 PM AST THU JUN 27 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A TUTT LOW NORTH OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING IS
EXPECTED TO MEANDER NORTH OF THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
AN EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR 45 WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AND WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL
AREA SUNDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON FIRST...OVER THE SOUTHWEST
SECTION OF PUERTO RICO...AND OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO
RICO. VERY HEAVY RAIN WAS OBSERVED MAINLY OVER THE MUNICIPALITIES
OF BARCELONETA AND MANATI. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR
NORTH AND DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS.
LATEST TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMMS DEPICTED AN AREA OF DRIER AIR
APPROACHING THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS AREA OF
DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT 24
HOURS...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AREA.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER NORTH OF THE AREA
NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
NEAR 45 WEST LONGITUDE...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AND
IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA BY SUNDAY. FROM THE TROPICAL
WEATHER DISCUSSION FROM THE NHC...THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SJU- GFS COMPUTER MODEL FORECAST
THETAE VALUES AT 700MB WILL BE AROUND 340K SUNDAY...AND LINGERING
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. IF THE MODEL VERIFY...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SQUALLY WEATHER COULD BE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
TJSJ...TJBQ AND TJMZ UNTIL AT LEAST 27/22Z. PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE LOCAL FLYING AREA DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND
TKPK/TNCM...TIST/TISX THIS EVENING. LLVL WINDS ESE 10-20 KT.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 21 KNOTS OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION ACROSS MOST COASTAL WATERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 87 78 87 / 30 20 20 20
STT 78 88 79 89 / 20 20 30 30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
325 PM AST THU JUN 27 2013
.SYNOPSIS...A TUTT LOW NORTH OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING IS
EXPECTED TO MEANDER NORTH OF THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
AN EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR 45 WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AND WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL
AREA SUNDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON FIRST...OVER THE SOUTHWEST
SECTION OF PUERTO RICO...AND OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO
RICO. VERY HEAVY RAIN WAS OBSERVED MAINLY OVER THE MUNICIPALITIES
OF BARCELONETA AND MANATI. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR
NORTH AND DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS.
LATEST TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMMS DEPICTED AN AREA OF DRIER AIR
APPROACHING THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS AREA OF
DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE LOCAL AREA NEXT 24
HOURS...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AREA.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER NORTH OF THE AREA
NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
NEAR 45 WEST LONGITUDE...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AND
IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA BY SUNDAY. FROM THE TROPICAL
WEATHER DISCUSSION FROM THE NHC...THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SJU- GFS COMPUTER MODEL FORECAST
THETAE VALUES AT 700MB WILL BE AROUND 340K SUNDAY...AND LINGERING
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. IF THE MODEL VERIFY...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SQUALLY WEATHER COULD BE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
TJSJ...TJBQ AND TJMZ UNTIL AT LEAST 27/22Z. PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE LOCAL FLYING AREA DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND
TKPK/TNCM...TIST/TISX THIS EVENING. LLVL WINDS ESE 10-20 KT.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 21 KNOTS OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION ACROSS MOST COASTAL WATERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 87 78 87 / 30 20 20 20
STT 78 88 79 89 / 20 20 30 30
