Puerto Rico Weather

NEW

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Apr 8, 2015 4:26:19 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Apr 8, 2015 4:26:19 GMT -6

Good morning. It looks like a wet pattern will arrive to the NE Caribbean by next weekend and continue thru next week as a deep trough establishes in the area.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
524 AM AST WED APR 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL HOLD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A WEAKENING
EXPECTED THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES AWAY EARLY
NEXT WORKWEEK...A DEEPER TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH
OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WIND FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND FREQUENT TRADE WIND SHOWERS
WERE OBSERVED OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ALONG COASTAL AREAS WERE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S...UNDER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY MID MORNING AS A
DRIER AIR MASS MOVES IN FROM THE EAST AND COMBINE WITH BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
THEN PREVAIL THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS AS WELL AS
LIMITED PM CONVECTION OVER AND WEST PUERTO RICO EACH DAY.

AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREAS FROM THE WEST...A
SHARP INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED.
THEREFORE...FREQUENCY...INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE SAT AND SUN. EARLY NEXT WORKWEEK...
EVEN A WETTER AND MUCH UNSTABLE WEATHER PATTERN COULD BE EXPECTED
AS A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD
ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS. A PATCH OF MOISTURE WILL CAUSE SCT SHRA
TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING. VCSH LIKELY ACROSS THE
TERMINALS WITH A FEW OF THE SHRA AFFECTING THE STATIONS VERY BRIEFLY
AS THEY PASS. MORE PERSISTENT SHRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS W-PR
AFTER 08/16Z...WHICH WILL CAUSE VCSH FOR TJMZ AND TJBQ WITH POSSIBLE
TEMPO SHRA FOR TJMZ. SFC WINDS MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 5-10 KTS
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING 10-15KTS AND GUSTY AFTER 08/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN
A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN CHOPPY MARINE CONDITIONS WITH SEAS
5 TO 7 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR AMZ710 THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 75 85 75 / 30 20 20 30
STT 86 73 86 73 / 40 20 20 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Apr 9, 2015 4:34:09 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Apr 9, 2015 4:34:09 GMT -6

Good morning. Wet weather is instore for the weekend in Puerto Rico and adjacent islands.But more unsetteled weather is coming for next week so prepare for that and stay tuned.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST THU APR 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL HOLD THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A WEAKENING
EXPECTED THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE MOVES
AWAY EARLY NEXT WORKWEEK...A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY
WERE OBSERVED OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ALONG COASTAL AREAS
WERE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...UNDER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

A FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING UNDER
RIDGE ALOFT AND BELOW TO NORMAL TPW VALUES. HOWEVER...BRIEF
PASSING SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS WITH LIMITED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER AND WEST PUERTO RICO EACH DAY. AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...A SHARP
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED.
THEREFORE...FREQUENCY...INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE SAT AND SUN WITH SAT AS THE BEST
DAY FOR SHOWER AND THUNDER ACTIVITY.

SOME DRYING EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DEPARTS AND UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES. A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MIDWEEK. MODELS INDICATE
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY WED-FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD
ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS. BRIEF VCSH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TERMINALS
INTO THE MORNING HOURS. SCT SHRA EXPECTED IN THE VCNTY OF TJMZ AND
TJBQ AFTER 09/16Z. SFC WINDS MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 5-10 KTS FOR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT...BECOMING 10-15KTS AND GUSTY AFTER 09/13Z
WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS 15-20 KT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. SMALL BOAT OPERATORS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 85 75 / 20 40 40 30
STT 86 74 86 76 / 20 40 40 40

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Apr 10, 2015 3:59:15 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Apr 10, 2015 3:59:15 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
530 AM AST FRI APR 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC WILL
MOVE EASTWARD...PASSING NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. A DEEPER TROUGH WILL THEN DEVELOP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TUE-WED. SURFACE
HIGH NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE FRESH TRADE
WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND FREQUENT PASSING SHOWERS
ACROSS USVI AND E PR WERE OBSERVED OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ALONG
COASTAL AREAS WERE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...UNDER LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS.

AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY AND SATURDAY
MORNING...MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. AS A RESULT TODAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...UNDER THE
PREVAILING EASTERLY WIND FLOW CONTINUE TO EXPECT FREQUENT PASSING
SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS AND SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER
AND WEST OF THE CORDILLERA IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE HEAVIEST
SHOWER/THUNDER ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS WEST PUERTO RICO
EACH DAY. SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED MON AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEPARTS AND UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES. TROUGH ALOFT WILL
THEN DEVELOP TUE-WED WITH BEST MOISTURE ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY
TUE. THE CHANCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDER ACTIVITY WILL RETURN BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK AS TROFINESS MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 10/14Z WITH
SCT SHRA CAUSING VCSH ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS WITH BRIEF
SHRA AT THE STATIONS POSSIBLE. CIGS AT AROUND FL050-070 EXPECTED
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH LOWER CIGS BRIEFLY WITH THE SHRA. AFT
10/17Z...SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS W-PR. THIS
WILL LIKELY CAUSE VCTS AT TJMZ AND TJBQ WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS AT
TJMZ AS IT AFFECTS THE STATION. SFC WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST WITH
SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT 10-15KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS. SMALL BOAT
OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 76 85 76 / 40 30 30 30
STT 85 75 85 76 / 50 30 30 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Apr 11, 2015 4:17:09 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Apr 11, 2015 4:17:09 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
555 AM AST SAT APR 11 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC GENERATING
FRESH TRADE WINDS UNTIL WEDNESDAY...THEN IT MOVES TO THE
NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC. BY MID WEEK...A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TYPICAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED BRIEF SHOWERS WERE
OBSERVED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...SOME OF THEM BRIEFLY
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE USVI AND EASTERN PR. THESE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN
TODAY...HOWEVER SOME LINGERING MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING...AND
THE PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF PR IN THE AFTERNOON. THE USVI SHOULD REMAIN PARTLY
CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SIMILAR PATTERN EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY FOR PR AND THE USVI.

FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK...PATCHES OF
MOISTURE WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA...WHICH WILL
RESULT ONCE AGAIN IN BRIEF SHOWERS DURING THE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS THEN POSSIBLE CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE. NO MAJOR FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANY MAJOR
INSTABILITY IN THE UPPER LEVELS UNTIL MAYBE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WHEN THE GFS MODEL INDICATES THAT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE IN THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND SOME DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS FORECAST BY THE
MODEL OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI...HOWEVER THE THETA-E FOR THAT
SAME TIME IS MODEST OVER THE LOCAL AREA AND HIGHER ACROSS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...WHICH IT IS TO BE EXPECTED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
TO OUR EAST. SO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...PREVAILING MODERATE
TRADE WINDS FROM THE EAST WITH NIGHTTIME AND MORNING PASSING
SHOWERS AND THEN AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR...ENHANCED BY
DAYTIME HEATING...OROGRAPHIC LIFTING...AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
TODAY... WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE AT JMZ IN SHRA/TSRA
BETWEEN 11/17Z AND 11/22Z. SFC WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST WITH
SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT 15-20KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 4 TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20
KNOTS...THEREFORE SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 76 86 76 / 20 20 20 20
STT 85 76 85 75 / 20 20 20 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Apr 12, 2015 4:26:51 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Apr 12, 2015 4:26:51 GMT -6

Good morning.Still watching what will transpire with the big trough that will develop later this week so stay tuned.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
607 AM AST SUN APR 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST TODAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC GENERATING FRESH TRADE WINDS
UNTIL WEDNESDAY...THEN IT MOVES TO THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC. BY
MID WEEK...A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND DIG INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED BRIEF SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN WERE OBSERVED
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
ACCUMULATIONS WERE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT AND SO FAR THE
ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN AS EXPECTED. EASTERN PR...THE LOCAL
WATERS...AND THE USVI HAVE BEEN AFFECTED BY THE SHOWERS.

THE GENERAL PATTERN FOR TODAY IF VERY SIMILAR TO THAT OBSERVED
YESTERDAY. UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND A PATCH
OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE MOVING IN. EVEN THOUGH THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE IS MODEST...THE MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED AT THE
TIME OF MAX HEATING...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT BUT STILL
THERE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR...WESTERN INTERIOR...WESTERN AND INTO NORTHWESTERN PR IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A CHANCE OF THE SAN JUAN METRO OBSERVING
RAINFALL DUE TO A DEVELOPING STREAMER FROM EL YUNQUE RAIN
FOREST...ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.

THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK LOOKS FAIRLY TYPICAL
WITH PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...USVI...AND EASTERN
PR IN THE NIGHTTIME AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THEN IN THE
AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PR...DEPENDING ON THE PREVAILING WIND FLOW AND AREA OF
SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE.

HOWEVER THE LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE MADE A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OF THIS COMING WEEK. THE GFS MODEL NOW HAS THE
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE HISPANIOLA ON THURSDAY...THIS MEANS
THAT THE AREA OF HIGHEST INSTABILITY IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BE
OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. THE FORECAST AS ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY AS THE GFS SOLUTION SHOWS VERY DECENT AMOUNTS OF RAIN
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...IN PARTICULAR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN
THE FACT THAT THE MODEL CHANGED RATHER ABRUPTLY FROM THE SOLUTION
IT GAVE YESTERDAY...THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS MODERATE AT
BEST. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE UPPER TROUGH AND ITS
DEVELOPMENT. REGARDLESS OF HOW THIS PLAYS OUT...WE CANNOT RULE OUT
ANY FLOOD-CAUSING RAINFALL. BUT LIKE MENTIONED EARLIER...THE MODEL
WAS SAYING SOMETHING DIFFERENT YESTERDAY...WOULD LIKE MORE
CONSISTENCY BEFORE INCREASING THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.HOWEVER THE LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE MADE A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OF THIS COMING WEEK. THE GFS MODEL NOW HAS THE
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE HISPANIOLA ON THURSDAY...THIS MEANS
THAT THE AREA OF HIGHEST INSTABILITY IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BE
OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. THE FORECAST AS ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY AS THE GFS SOLUTION SHOWS VERY DECENT AMOUNTS OF RAIN
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...IN PARTICULAR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN
THE FACT THAT THE MODEL CHANGED RATHER ABRUPTLY FROM THE SOLUTION
IT GAVE YESTERDAY...THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS MODERATE AT
BEST. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE UPPER TROUGH AND ITS
DEVELOPMENT. REGARDLESS OF HOW THIS PLAYS OUT...WE CANNOT RULE OUT
ANY FLOOD-CAUSING RAINFALL. BUT LIKE MENTIONED EARLIER...THE MODEL
WAS SAYING SOMETHING DIFFERENT YESTERDAY...WOULD LIKE MORE
CONSISTENCY BEFORE INCREASING THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES TODAY
WITH PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND JSJ AND IST IN THE
MORNING. AFT 12/17Z SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED OVER AND WEST OF THE
CORDILLERA AND MAY CAUSE MVFR CONDS AT JMZ/JBQ THROUGH 12/22Z. SFC
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE E SE WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT 15-20KTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE
CAUTION MOSTLY ACROSS THE LOCAL OFFSHORE WATERS DUE TO MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND SEAS UP TO 6 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 76 86 76 / 20 20 20 30
STT 85 75 85 77 / 20 20 20 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Apr 13, 2015 4:07:24 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Apr 13, 2015 4:07:24 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
422 AM AST MON APR 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE
AROUND A BROAD MEAN TROF OVER THE ATLC AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGOUT THE WEEK. ATLC SFC RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY LOSE ITS GRIP
OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
CURRENTLY STRETCHED OUT FROM NE TO SW ACROSS HISPANIOLA WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
NMRS SHOWERS AND T-STORMS TODAY. AFTER SHORTWAVE-TROUGH PUSHES
EAST THIS EVENING...UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND BUILDING
SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A DRYING TREND TUE AND WED. A
SECOND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THU BUT
MODELS MAINTAIN MID-LEVELS FAIRLY DRY. A THIRD UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT. RIDGE ALOFT WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WEAKENING SFC RIDGE WILL ALLOW
FOR STRONGER SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND BETTER OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SHOWERS SAT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
TO REMAIN DRYER THAN NORMAL NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD SHRA EARLY IN THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS NCM/IST AND
EASTERN PR TERMINALS BUT GENERALLY VFR WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHRA/TSRA THIS AFT OVER WESTERN PR...AREAS OF OBSCD MTNS AND POSBL
MVFR AT TJMZ/TJBQ. WIND BLO FL100 E 13-21 KT.

&&

.MARINE...SFC WINDS ARE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS ATLC SFC RIDGE GRADUALLY LOSES ITS GRIP OVER THE LOCAL
AREA. SEAS UP TO 6 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THEN REMAIN 3-5
FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED TUE THROUGH FRI WHILE SFC
WINDS REMAIN AROUND 15 KT MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. POTENTIAL FOR RED
FLAG CONDITIONS BEGINNING TUE AND ESPECIALLY ON WED WHEN AREA
UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT AND THE DRYING MOST INTENSE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 76 89 76 / 20 10 10 10
STT 85 76 86 76 / 20 10 10 10

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Apr 14, 2015 4:43:52 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Apr 14, 2015 4:43:52 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
445 AM AST TUE APR 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD MEAN TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOCAL AREA EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND DRYING THROUGH FRI ON THE BACKSIDE OF A
SHORTWAVE-TROUGH AXIS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. THIS IS
CONFIRMED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND GOES-SOUNDER DATA WHICH SHOW
SUBSTANTIAL DRYING BETWEEN 700-300 MB. EXPECT DRYING TREND TO
INTENSIFY WED-FRI AS UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE STRENGTHENS.

ON SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE-TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SURGING
WITH THE GFS THE MORE AGGRESIVE OF THE TWO. SATURDAY APPEAR TO BE
SHAPING UP CLOUDY AND WET BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT
INCONSISTENT ABOUT THIS. UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS SUPPORTING A
GRADUAL DRYING TREND INTO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...BETWEEN 14/17-21Z +SHRA EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR
OF PR...WITH AREAS OF OBSCD MTNS AND POSBL MVFR IMPACTING MAINLY
TJMZ. EAST WINDS BLO FL050 AT 15-20 KTS. SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AND
HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 14Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS UP 20 KT THROUGH WED THEN DIMINISH THU AND FRI.
SEAS 3-5 FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH FRI
AND MAINTAIN MID-LEVEL DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY TUE AND WED THEN WEAKEN SOMEWHAT THU AND FRI. FUELS ARE VERY
DRY NOW IN SOUTHEAST PR AND ST. CROIX. DRYING HAS ALSO BEEN
OCCURRING IN VIEQUES SINCE EARLY MARCH. IT WILL BE DRY TODAY BUT
NOT LIKELY TO BE DRY ENOUGH FOR RED FLAGS. DRYING INTENSIFIES
WED-FRI WITH RED FLAGS LIKELY ON WED AS WINDS REMAIN GUSTY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 87 75 / 20 10 10 10
STT 85 74 85 74 / 20 10 10 10

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Apr 15, 2015 4:31:00 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Apr 15, 2015 4:31:00 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
449 AM AST WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THRU FRIDAY. RIDGE
WILL BE REPLACED BY UPPER TROUGH DURING THE WEEKEND. THEN...ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED OVER LAND AREAS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT. PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED MAINLY ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS THRU FRIDAY...A DRYING
TREND IS EXPECTED. CAPPING AT THE MID LEVELS WILL INHIBIT
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT
AFTERNOON CONVECTION EACH DAY ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR OF PR
AND A FEW STREAMERS FORMING OFF THE USVI. FOR THE WEEKEND...AS CAP
ERODES DUE TO UPPER TROUGH AEREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION...A STRAY TSRA AT JMZ THIS AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS. VCTS AT JBQ. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A MODERATE
TRADE WIND FLOW. SHORT PERIOD WAVES UP TO 5 FEET ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. SMALL CRAFTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

.FIRE WEATHER...A DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN TODAY AND INTENSIFY THU
AND FRI. NOT SURE WHETHER THE REALLY DRY AIR WILL ARRIVE AT MAX
HEATING TODAY TO MEET THE RH CRITERIA. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE
CANCELLED THE FIRE WX WATCH FOR TODAY. VERY DRY TO EXTREMELY DRY THU
AND FRI. NO APPRECIABLE DOWNWARD TREND IS NOTED ON MODEL GUIDANCE
EITHER ON THE SFC OR 0-1 KM AVG WINDS FOR THU AND FRI. SO RED FLAGS
APPEAR VERY LIKELY BOTH THU AND FRI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 74 88 74 / 10 10 10 20
STT 85 74 86 74 / 20 10 10 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Apr 16, 2015 4:25:14 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Apr 16, 2015 4:25:14 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
530 AM AST THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH FRIDAY.
RIDGE WILL BE REPLACED BY UPPER TROUGH DURING THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. A SHEAR
LINE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS. A SMALL LINE OF SHOWERS ALSO
DEVELOPED AROUND MIDNIGHT AST SOUTH OF MONA ISLAND. A GENERALLY
FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL TODAY UNDER
RIDGE ALOFT AND LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. DUE TO THE LIMITED
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE EXPECTED...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. IN GENERAL...EXPECT
SHOWERS TO FORM OVER THE SAME SECTIONS OF WESTERN PR EACH
AFTERNOON. AS PWAT VALUES SLOWLY INCREASE TO NORMAL VALUES ON
SUN-TUE...ONLY AERIAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER
THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR SHOULD BE NOTED.

&&

.AVIATION...A STRAY TSRA POSSIBLE AT JMZ THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...BUOYS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS ARE INDICATING SEAS UNDER
5 FEET AND SHOULD CONTINUE AT OR BELOW 5 FEET FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE JUST ABOVE 15
KNOTS...INCREASING TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
THEREFORE SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRYING EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGH FRI MORNING AND
WHEN COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 90F WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL
RH`S. WINDS LOOK SOMEWHAT MARGINAL BUT SEA BREEZE EFFECTS ARE LIKELY
TO RESULT IN ENHANCED SPEEDS ALONG THE COAST. FUELS ARE EXTREMELY
DRY ON THE SOUTH COAST AND SAINT CROIX WITH VERY HIGH KBDI`S IN THE
700S. ANY FIRES WILL BURN INTENSELY HOT DUE TO EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH
ERC`S APPROACHING 60 AT CAMP SANTIAGO WHICH WOULD BE AN ALL TIME
HIGH SINCE THE CAMP SANTIAGO STATION BECAME OPERATIONAL AGAIN IN
EARLY 2012.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 76 89 76 / 0 10 10 20
STT 86 76 86 76 / 0 20 20 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Apr 17, 2015 4:17:01 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Apr 17, 2015 4:17:01 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
519 AM AST FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS....SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL
CONTINUE TO ERODE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALOFT. THIS UPPER TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FILL/WEAKEN BY LATE SATURDAY...WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD ONCE AGAIN OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A MIGRATORY SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST
DURING THE WEEKEND...AS THE ATLANTIC HIGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ATLANTIC. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DOPPLER WEATHER
RADAR SUGGESTS A WEAKLY INDUCED LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING
SMALL AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND PASSING SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND PARTLY CLOUDY TO VARIABLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE ISLANDS. DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWED ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF THE COASTAL WATERS AND
BRIEFLY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AS WELL AS SOME
OF THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
WERE HOWEVER MINIMAL AND MAINLY OF LIGHT INTENSITY. LOCAL WINDS
WERE FROM THE EAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER ALONG THE
COASTAL AREAS.

MODEL GUIDANCE AND PRESENT SYNOPTIC SITUATION SUGGESTS A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE PROXIMITY OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AS WELL AS LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS...WILL ALLOW
FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND ALSO INDUCE AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE WEST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND LATER IN THE DAY.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES TO PREVAIL WITH ONLY
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN SOME AREAS.

INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH BETTER CHANCE FOR ENHANCED
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AND ENHANCE CONVECTION. LESSER ACTIVITY EXPECTED BY SUNDAY
HOWEVER AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
WEST ONCE AGAIN PLACING THE AREA ON THE CONVERGENT/SUBSIDENT SIDE
OF WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THE FREQUENCY AND AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL THEN CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND ALLOW FOR MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER SKIES TO PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...VCSH POSSIBLE ACROSS
TISX...TIST AND TJSJ AS WELL AS ACROSS TNCM AND TKPK DURING THE
MORNING HOURS WITH A PREVAILING E-NE WIND AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KT. SCT
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA AFTER 17/17Z ACROSS WESTERN PR MAY CAUSE VCSH/VCTS
AT TJMZ WITH CIGS AROUND FL040.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION MAINLY DUE TO MODERATE TO CHOPPY WIND
CONDITIONS. WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 5 FEET MAINLY
OFFSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 89 76 / 20 20 20 30
STT 85 75 84 77 / 30 30 30 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Apr 18, 2015 4:14:02 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Apr 18, 2015 4:14:02 GMT -6

Good morning.Scattered showers will fall today in the NE Caribbean as a trough is nearby.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
516 AM AST SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN TODAY THEN GRADUALLY FILL WHILE LIFTING NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...THEN LIFT FARTHER
NORTH INTO THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN INDUCED
LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
AND BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE INDUCED LOW LEVEL TROUGH
ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY CREATED BY THE PROXIMITY OF THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL AID IN SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS TODAY. AS THE
PREVAILING WINDS BECOME MORE EAST SOUTHEAST...EXPECT CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY TO BE FOCUSED MORE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH POSSIBLE STREAMER LIKE CONVECTION
FORMING ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN INTERIOR...THEN TRAINING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SAN JUN METRO LATER IN THE DAY. SOME STREAMER
FORMATION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CULEBRA AND VIEQUES AS WELL
AS OVER PORTIONS OF THE U.S.VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE REST OF THE
DAY.

LESSER ACTIVITY EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH
WILL WEAKEN ALONG WITH DECREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION. IN
ADDITION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD ONCE AGAIN BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR MORE STABLE AND SUBSIDENT
CONDITIONS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS TISX...TIST AND TISJ UNTIL 18/14Z WITH VCSH POSSIBLE
ACROSS TNCM AND TKPK. SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO AFTER 18/17Z...PRODUCING AT LEAST
VCSH/VCTS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITY
AND CEILINGS AT TJMZ AND TJBQ. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM
THE EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS BECOMING WESTERLY AND
STRONGER ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE....CONDITIONS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS MAY HOWEVER REACH 6 FEET IN THE
NORTHEASTERN LOCAL OUTER ATLANTIC WATERS LATER NEXT WEEK BASED ON
THE LATEST FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 90 77 / 30 40 40 30
STT 84 76 85 77 / 30 40 40 50

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Apr 19, 2015 4:20:13 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Apr 19, 2015 4:20:13 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
521 AM AST SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE TO SHIFT FARTHER NORTHEAST
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AS A WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH PULLS
NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN WILL HELP TO
CREATE A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
WEST...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FILLS AND EXITS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN TODAY WHILE LIFTING NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWED PATCHES OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS MOVING WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS AND REACHING PARTS OF THE ISLANDS FROM TIME TO
TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF PASSING LOW TO MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AND BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE EAST
AND SOUTHEAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE REST OF
THE MORNING HOURS. LATER IN THE DAY EXPECT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT ACROSS THE REGION TO COMBINE WILL DAYTIME HEATING AND
LOCAL EFFECTS TO ALLOW FOR INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLY ONE OR TWO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTION OF
PUERTO RICO. ELSEWHERE... MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES AND OVERALL
LIGHT EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY..EXCEPT FOR LOCAL
SEA BREEZE VARIATION ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTY
WINDS.

RIDGE ALOFT IS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EARLY PORTION
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPORT UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES
AND LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE LOCAL FLYING AREA WITH VCSH OVER TJSJ. SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO AFTER
19/17Z...PRODUCING AT LEAST VCSH/VCTS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS AT TJMZ AND TJBQ. LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS BECOMING WESTERLY AND STRONGER ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE...RECENT DATA FROM BUOY 41043 NE OF PUERTO RICO SUGGEST A
MODERATE NNE SWELL HELPING TO CREATE SEAS AROUND 7 FEET AND PERIOD
OF 10-13 SECS. THEREFORE STILL EXPECT SLIGHT INCREASE IN SEAS MAINLY
ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AND PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL PASSAGES. SEAS
OF ABOUT 5 TO 6 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 11 SECONDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS ARE THEREFORE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION
AND MONITOR THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSURED BY WFO SAN JUAN
PUERTO RICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 75 89 76 / 20 20 20 20
STT 85 76 85 76 / 20 20 20 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Apr 20, 2015 4:12:11 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Apr 20, 2015 4:12:11 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
355 AM AST MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST UNTIL AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC AWAY FROM THE REGION. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST LOOSING ITS INFLUENCES ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THESE
FEATURES WILL RESULT IN A GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST SOUTHEAST WIND
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOSTLY ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY THIS MORNING. UNDER AN EAST SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND
FLOW...SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AFFECTED THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. NOT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED ELSEWHERE OVER
THE REGION SO FAR THIS MORNING.

THE EAST SOUTHEAST TRADES WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT SMALL
PATCHES OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY AND
THRU AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THESE SHOWERS WILL AFFECT
THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT AND
DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS.
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL ISLANDS EFFECTS TO INDUCE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER INTERIOR
WESTERN AND NORTHWEST PARTS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST WELL AWAY FROM THE
REGION...THE LOCAL WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST TO EAST
SOUTHEAST...INDUCING HIGHER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE NORTHERN COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES OF PUERTO RICO.

RIDGE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AT LEAST INTO
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPORT UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
SKIES AND LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY IN THE MORNING WITH DIURNAL INDUCED SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN...INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO
EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR DURG ENTIRE PRD. ISOLD PASSING SHRA MAINLY OVR
COASTAL WATERS BTW EAST PR AND USVI. FEW CU EN ROUTE BTW ISLANDS
W/NO SIG BLDUPS ATTM. ...WIND BLO FL100 MAINLY FM ESE BTW 5-15 KT.
WIND ABV FL100 NW INCR WI HGT BCMG NE MON.NO SIG OPERATIONAL HAZARDS
ATTM DURG PRD.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY...AS SEAS UP TO 6 FEET ARE FORECAST ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND LOCAL PASSAGES. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL
TREND IS FOR THE SEAS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 76 88 75 / 20 20 20 20
STT 85 76 86 75 / 20 30 30 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Apr 21, 2015 4:04:50 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Apr 21, 2015 4:04:50 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
510 AM AST TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE CLOSE TO THE
REGION TODAY. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE
REGION UNTIL AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE TRADE
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOSTLY ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY THIS MORNING. UNDER AN EAST SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND
FLOW...SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AFFECTED THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. NOT PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED ELSEWHERE OVER THE LOCAL
ISLANDS SO FAR THIS MORNING.

THE EAST SOUTHEAST TRADES WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT SMALL
PATCHES OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY AND
THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE REST OF THE
MORNING HOURS...BUT ONLY ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS AFE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE CLOSE TO THE REGION
TODAY. THUS...FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO COMBINE WITH THE LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING
AND LOCAL ISLANDS EFFECTS TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS INTERIOR AND WESTERN
PARTS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER
SUNSET. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE PRESENT WEATHER
REGIME IN THE FORESEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER...FM
21/17-21Z...SHRA/ISOLD TSRA PSBL OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF PR. THIS MAY LEAD TO BRIEF MTN TOPS OBSCR AND MVFR
CONDS...AFFECTING MAINLY TJMZ AND VCTY. LGT/VRB SFC WINDS OVERNIGHT
TIL 21/14Z...THEN BCMG FM THE EAST KTS 10-15KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
AND SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...BUOY 41043 TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA IS NOW
REPORTING SEAS UNDER 5 FEET. THEREFORE WE EXPECT SEAS MAINLY OF 4
FEET ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS WITH OCCASIONAL MOMENTS OF 5
FEET. THE TREND IS FOR SEAS TO CONTINUE MAINLY 2 TO 4 FEET WITH
OCCASIONAL MOMENTS OF 5 FEET FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NORTHEASTERLY
SWELL IS FORECAST TO INVADE THE LOCAL WATERS ON THURSDAY...
INCREASING SEAS TO 6 FEET ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 75 88 76 / 20 10 20 20
STT 85 75 85 77 / 20 20 20 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Apr 22, 2015 4:04:07 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Apr 22, 2015 4:04:07 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
526 AM AST WED APR 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS MOVING INTO THE AREA
FOLLOWING A TROUGH PASSAGE LAST NIGHT. ANTICYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN WILL
MAINTAIN A RIDGE OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS. AFTERWARD THE HIGH WILL DRIFT OVER THE LOCAL AREA.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN
SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND BEGIN TO SPREAD SOUTH...BUT GRADIENTS
WILL WEAKEN OVER THE LOCAL AREA AND FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY LATER THIS WEEK. THE AXIS OF THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH TO
OVER THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN
THE NORTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWER INCREASED EARLY IN THE MORNING SOUTH OF
VIEQUES AND OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM FAJARDO EAST...BUT MOST
REMAINED OFFSHORE AND LITTLE RAIN WAS HAD OVER LAND. LOW LEVEL
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TURNING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO WILL BEGIN TO
RISE. BY FRIDAY HIGHS WILL REACH 90 DEGREES AND LOWER 90S WILL BE
COMMON THERE NEXT WEEK. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY LIMITED TODAY
AS MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO DROP TO AROUND 0.88 INCHES OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER BY 23/06Z TONIGHT. MOISTURE REBOUNDS IN THE
LOWER LEVELS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST AND WHERE THE SEA BREEZES MEET THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW. RELATIVELY DRY MID LEVELS WILL QUASH MOST
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BUT SOME SHOWERS MAY BE HEAVY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. EVEN WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN LATER NEXT
WEEK...WITH MOS GUIDANCE APPROACHING RECORD WARM MAXIMUMS FOR THE
SAN JUAN AREA BY THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH PERSISTENT SOUTH FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS THRU THE FCST PERIOD. FEW CU EN ROUTE BTW ERN
PR AND N LEEWARDS ISOLD SHRA. BETWEEN 22/17-22/21Z ISOLD-SCT SHRA
EXPECTED TO FORM OVER WESTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR W/PSBL BRIEF
MTN TOP OBSCR AND MVFR IN LOW CIGS...MAINLY VCNTY TJMZ. L/LVL
WNDS FM NE 10-20 KTS BLO FL250 AND SFC WND MAINLY FM E 10-15 KTS
EXCEPT FOR LOCAL SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS....WITH OCNL GUSTS UP TO 22
KTS. NO OTHER SIG OPERATIONAL WX IMPACTS ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...MODELS SHOW A LONG PERIOD SWELL BEGINNING LATE
THURSDAY...BUT SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 77 89 78 / 10 10 10 10
STT 86 75 85 77 / 20 0 0 20

Shoutbox

northshoreelise: not on the 12z... Oct 10, 2024 12:15:21 GMT -6

lencast: Really would appreciate it. Thank you, Lena Sept 27, 2024 5:20:46 GMT -6

lencast: I am in Jacksonville, and trying to drive back to New Orleans. Does anyone here know if the I-10 is passable in Lake City and Tallahassee. Sept 27, 2024 5:19:03 GMT -6

tcane: This sure looks like it dies quickly. maybe falling apart before metro New Orleans? Just looking at the lat dozen posts and images here. Sept 10, 2024 11:26:27 GMT -6

rebekahb-Metairie: Looks like it but I wait for the better trained eyes on the forum to respond. Sept 9, 2024 18:52:32 GMT -6

jdschlum-bedico/village of bo: Look further east than the 12z plots don’t it Sept 9, 2024 18:49:34 GMT -6

SKYSUMMIT: Oh sorry guys! I didn't eve see these new messages down here lol Jul 26, 2024 13:14:47 GMT -6

jenniqtip: Just as soon as* sry fat finger Jul 7, 2024 12:53:35 GMT -6

jenniqtip: I donate every year. 😀ju sry as soon as the first area of interest pops up!! I rarely post though so the tag isn’t necessary. Just know I appreciate everything you do!! Jul 7, 2024 12:53:12 GMT -6

larcat: SKYSUMMIT You can slap one on me

Jul 7, 2024 12:12:03 GMT -6

SKYSUMMIT: Thanks laismyhome ! Also, if there is anyone who has donated that has not been given the Supporter tag, please let us know. Jul 7, 2024 4:00:50 GMT -6

laismyhome: Here's a friendly reminder to go make a donation to support this forum that is so full of valuable reliable info. Link to donate is on homepage Jul 2, 2024 9:55:24 GMT -6

Deleted: Ernesto gonna mog hard.
I'm voting Alberto, Ernesto, Rafael and Deshawn Apr 1, 2024 19:15:21 GMT -6

SKYSUMMIT: ShanaBanana Yes...just click the link and then send a PM to either TIgergirl or myself. I can then shoot her a text letting her know and I'll add your supporter tag. THANK YOU!!!! Sept 23, 2023 16:08:37 GMT -6

ShanaBanana: At the risk of this being a dumb question. In order to donate, do I follow the instructions when I click “donate”, and then message tigergirl? I see people comment here that they donated, so I wasn’t sure if that had changed. Sept 20, 2023 10:54:40 GMT -6

SKYSUMMIT: Great to have you back! Sept 11, 2023 12:20:30 GMT -6

virginialee: Hi Skysummit: I was part of this back at the beginning. So happy to be back. Sept 8, 2023 5:08:12 GMT -6

SKYSUMMIT: Thanks to everyone who has recently donated! If I missed anyone and you still need a Supporter Tag, let me know. Sept 7, 2023 13:20:10 GMT -6

akeller11: Just donated Sept 6, 2023 11:11:36 GMT -6

SKYSUMMIT: Thanks guys and gals! You're very much appreciated! Aug 30, 2023 11:48:38 GMT -6

Puerto Rico Weather

Post by cycloneye on Apr 8, 2015 4:26:19 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Apr 9, 2015 4:34:09 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Apr 10, 2015 3:59:15 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Apr 11, 2015 4:17:09 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Apr 12, 2015 4:26:51 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Apr 13, 2015 4:07:24 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Apr 14, 2015 4:43:52 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Apr 15, 2015 4:31:00 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Apr 16, 2015 4:25:14 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Apr 17, 2015 4:17:01 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Apr 18, 2015 4:14:02 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Apr 19, 2015 4:20:13 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Apr 20, 2015 4:12:11 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Apr 21, 2015 4:04:50 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Apr 22, 2015 4:04:07 GMT -6

Shoutbox

Welcome All Members & Guests

Supporter Us & Donate for the 2024 Season

Hurricane Season 2024

Tropical Outlook

Regional Radars

Today's Convective Outlook

Today's Weather

Watches and Warnings