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cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather May 8, 2015 4:07:29 GMT -6

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Post by cycloneye on May 8, 2015 4:07:29 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
439 AM AST FRI MAY 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID-LEVEL HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN DOMINAT WX FEATURE
THROUGH TUE THEN WEAKEN AS MID-UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW OFF OF THE
SOUTHEAST US MOVES EWD AND CROSSES THE AREA WED NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID-LEVEL HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN
A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
TUE. HOWEVER...AN INCREASE IN SHALLOW MOISTURE IS EXPECTED SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING DUE TO A TRADE WIND SURGE WITH SCT NOCTURNAL
SHOWERS OVR ERN PR AND THE ATLC AND CARIB COASTAL WATERS. THERE
WILL ALSO BE A THICKENING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECK FRI NIGHT
INTO MID NEXT WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK ON
EAST SIDE OF UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW OFF OF THE FL COAST. INCREASED
SKY CVR GRIDS DURING THIS PERIOD TO REFLECT THIS. THIS WILL ALSO
RESULT IN VERY WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY 80F OR ABOVE.

CONDITIONS THEN BECOME MORE FVRBL FOR SCT DEEP CONVECTION WED-THU
OF NEXT WEEK AS MID-UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW/TROUGH MOVES EWD ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA ON FRI WITH
UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ESTABLISHING AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
GRADUALLY BUILDING. OVERALL...STILL DON`T SEE ANYTHING THAT WOULD
SUGGEST ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL SINCE BEST FORCING WITH THIS TROUGH
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF 19.5N.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. HZ DUE TO SAHARAN DUST ACROSS THE FLYING AREA BUT
VSBY WILL REMAIN P6SM. BRIEF PERIODS OF ISLD SHRA EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHWEST PR IN THE AFTERNOON...IMPACTING MAINLY JBQ. LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10-20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT AFTER 14Z AND
SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS OVER NW PR.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS GENERALLY STRENGTHENING INTO SUN MORNING AT 20 KT.
SEAS 4-6 FT. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RH`S CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT THE SAME THAN AT THIS
TIME YESTERDAY. WINDS LIKELY TO BE STRONGER TODAY ALTHOUGH GFS
INITIALIZED 925 MB WINDS TOO STRONG. SO NO RED FLAGS TODAY.

THICKENING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FRI NIGHT INTO TUE SHOULD
MITIGATE FIRE RISK SOMEWHAT BUT WINDY CONDITIONS...LACK OF RAIN
AND VERY DRY FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HIGH FIRE DANGER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 91 78 / 0 10 10 20
STT 87 79 86 79 / 0 20 20 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather May 10, 2015 4:16:04 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on May 10, 2015 4:16:04 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
539 AM AST SUN MAY 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ERODE THRU MID
WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY
WEDNESDAY. BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL TIGHTEN THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RESULT IN
MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE DETECTED OVER LAND AREAS
OVERNIGHT...WITH GAGES REPORTING JUST BELOW 0.30 INCHES OVER SAN
LORENZO AND LAS PIEDRAS...AND A FEW HUNDREDTHS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PR. ALSO...BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PR. FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS TRADE
WIND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN THE USVI AND EASTERN PR. IN THE
AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PR WITH ISLD/SCT SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.
ALSO...STREAMERS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OFF THE USVI.

IN GENERAL...AS UPPER RIDGE ERODES PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE
SOMEWHAT EACH DAY. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE BRISK EASTERLIES
WILL ALLOW FOR A PATTERN OF PASSING SHOWERS DURING THE NIGHT TIME
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER
WESTERN PR EACH DAY AT LEAST THRU MID WEEK. AEROSOL MODELS
SUGGEST A NEW INCURSION OF THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER BY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS WITH CIGS BKN040 AND A BKN DECK AT
15KFT. SCT SHOWERS MOST TAF SITES XCPT JPS WITH POSSIBLY EVEN A T-
STORM AT JBQ THIS AFTERNOON. WINDY WITH EAST WINDS 15G25KT. DRIER ON
MONDAY AND STILL WINDY. SAHARAN DUST HAZE WILL START ENTERING THE
LOCAL AREA MON NIGHT AND COVER THE ENTIRE REGION TUE WITH VSBY
REDUCTIONS BETWEEN 6-9SM. WINDS DIMINISH MID WEEK ON.

&&

.MARINE...AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS...MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND
CHOPPY SEAS UP TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS
AND PASSAGES AT LEAST UNTIL THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 79 89 79 / 50 30 20 30
STT 87 78 87 78 / 40 30 10 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather May 11, 2015 4:07:08 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on May 11, 2015 4:07:08 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
502 AM AST MON MAY 11 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDS NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN....WHILE A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS
SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC THEN INTO THE EAST
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A DOMINANT SOUTHWEST WIND
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE UPPER TROUGH IS
HOWEVER FORECAST TO WEAKEN BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS IT
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND FILL. IN THE MEANTIME THIS
FEATURE WILL HELP TRANSPORT MID TO UPPER CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS WELL AS PROVIDE UPPER
LEVEL INSTABILITY. BROAD AND STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
NORTH OF THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL CREATE MODERATE TO
STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WIND THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK
WEEK. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A WEAKLY INDUCED LOW LEVEL
TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS
THE LESSER ANTILLES AND ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DOMINANT EASTERLY TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSPORT WEAK EASTERLY PERTUBATIONS AND OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL
SUPPORT PERIODS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
REGION AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. EXPECT
THE MAIN ACTIVITY TO BE HOWEVER FOCUSED OVER PARTS OF THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE DAYTIME WHERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. SOME
ENHANCED CONVECTION CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE
COASTAL WATERS ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE EVENINGS AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. SOME SHOWERS MAY REACH PARTS OF THE EAST COASTAL
SECTION OF THE ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
WEAKENS...AND THE SURFACE ATLANTIC HIGH LIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND
EAST OF THE REGION RESULTING IN A LOOSENING OF THE LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT.

&&

.AVIATION....A LAYER OF MID-UPPER CLOUDS DECK ASSOCIATED WITH A
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL JET WILL MAINTAIN BKN-OVC CIGS BETWEEN
20- 30KFT. THIS CLOUD DECK EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA DURG THE NXT 24 HOURS. ISOLD-SCT PASSING SHRA EXPECTED
ACROSS PARTS OF TAF SITES XCPT TJPS...TJBQ AND TJMZ. AFTER 05/18Z
ISOLATED TSRA MAY BE POSSIBLE AT TJBQ. EAST WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH BRIEF GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE BETWEEN
11/14Z-11/22Z.

&&

.MARINE...THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL
MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WITH WIND DRIVEN SEAS
OF UP TO 7 FEET IN SOME OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND LOCAL PASSAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 90 77 / 20 30 30 20
STT 88 79 87 77 / 10 30 30 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather May 12, 2015 4:21:06 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on May 12, 2015 4:21:06 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
454 AM AST TUE MAY 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE REGION EXTENDS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC SOUTHWARD ACROSS JAMAICA INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
MEANWHILE SLOWLY ERODING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS NORTHWARDS ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN
THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW WHICH IN TURN CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT
WIDESPREAD HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS.
THE UPPER TROUGH IS TO SLOWLY FILL/WEAKEN AND LIFT EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION BY THURSDAY. UPPER HIGH WILL THEN REESTABLISH ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE REGION
SPREAD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC...WILL MAINTAIN A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AT LEAST UNTIL THURSDAY. THEREAFTER THE RIDGE IS TO GRADUALLY
LOOSEN ITS HOLD AND ALLOW FOR DIMINISHING TRADE WINDS BY FRIDAY
AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNTS OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING WESTWARDS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREAS IN THE DOMINANT EASTERLY TRADES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EXPECT MINIMAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS THE PRESENCE
OF WIDESPREAD HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD HELP LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ISLANDS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY HOWEVER
DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WEST INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO BUT DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL
AT THIS TIME. ELSEWHERE MOSTLY SUNNY AND AND OVERALL HAZY CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST AS FINE AMOUNTS OF SUSPENDED SAHARAN DUST PARTICULATES
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD WESTWARDS ACROSS THE REGION.

BY EARLY WEDNESDAY EXPECT HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO DIMINISH AS
TROUGH AXIS ALOFT LIFT NORTHWARDS. THIS WILL ALLOW BETTER DAYTIME
HEATING AND INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR DIURNALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLANDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST INTERIOR
SECTION OF PUERTO RICO...WHERE LOCAL SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND
FORCING WILL BE STRONGER. ENHANCED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WHEN UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY AND GOOD
VENTILATION WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A GRADUALLY
IMPROVEMENT IS SO FAR FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS DIMINISH...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION ONCE AGAIN...AND TRADE WIND MOISTURE
ADVECTION DECREASES.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHRA UNTIL 12/14Z OVER
LOCAL WATERS AND EASTERN PR WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS...THEN AFTER
12/16Z...ISOLATED SHRA ACROSS WESTERN PR WILL PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BETWEEN TJMZ AND TJBQ. WINDS ESE AT 10
KT UNTIL 12/14Z THEN INCREASING TO EAST SOUTHEAST WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH BRIEF GUSTS TO BETWEEN 25 AND 30
KT. HEAVY CI LAYER AT AND ABOVE FL230.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS AS WELL AS THE MONA PASSAGE. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE AND RECENT BUOY DATA HAVE CONTINUED TO ALIGN PRETTY
WELL AND SUGGEST WINDS UP TO 21 KNOTS...AND CHOPPY SEA CONDITIONS
UP TO 7 FEET ACROSS THE LOCAL OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE MONA PASSAGE.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST AND THE MARINE
WEATHER MESSAGE ISSUED BY WFO SAN JUAN PR FOR ADDITION INFO AND
UPDATES. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE TO RELAX ACROSS THE REGION BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 88 77 / 20 20 30 40
STT 88 78 87 77 / 20 30 30 40

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather May 13, 2015 4:15:37 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on May 13, 2015 4:15:37 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
446 AM AST WED MAY 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE REGION EXTENDS FROM
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN NORTHWARD ACROSS CUBA AND BAHAMAS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC...WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA
WHILE WEAKENING. THIS FEATURE WILL ERODE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE REGION...SLIGHTLY INCREASING THE LOCAL INSTABILITY
WHICH MAY HELP WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH LEAVES THE AREA A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
AGAIN OVER THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT
RESULTING IN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS. AN UPPER LEVEL JET
SEGMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE OVER THE REGION NOT SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL CREATE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INCREASING
K-INDEX...AND MID-UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY AS THE UPPER RIDGE ERODE
RAPIDLY. NAAPS AEROSOL MODEL INDICATES THAT THE DUST CONCENTRATION
WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY AND INTO THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SO
THE SAHARAN DUST MAY NOT BE PRESENT TO LIMIT CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT MID LAYERS STILL LOOK A BIT ON THE DRY SIDE.
LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL DIMINISH AS TROUGH AXIS ALOFT LIFT NORTHWARDS.
THIS WILL ALLOW BETTER DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR
DIURNALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLANDS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST INTERIOR SECTION OF PUERTO RICO...WHERE
LOCAL SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND FORCING WILL BE STRONGER. SO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN PR WERE
KEPT IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PATTERN CONTINUES TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION. ENHANCED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ON THURSDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...WHEN UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY AND GOOD VENTILATION WILL
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE LONG LASTING BECAUSE A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
FROM THE WEST AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES AWAY WITH A RETURN TO
A MOSTLY FAIR AND STABLE WEATHER EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK AND DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS AT ALL TAF SITES WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDS
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ AFT 13/17Z. ALSO ISOLD TSRA WRN
PR ALONG WITH AREAS OF MTN OBSCURATIONS. WINDS ESE 10 TO 15 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT THEN AFT 13/14Z EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 23 AND 28 KT. HEAVY CI CLDS ABOVE FL220.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MARINE ZONES
710...732 AND 741 DUE TO SEAS UP TO 7 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20
KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE REST
OF THE REGIONAL WATERS DUE TO WINDS OF 20 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 76 89 77 / 20 40 30 20
STT 87 77 88 77 / 30 40 30 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather May 14, 2015 4:08:02 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on May 14, 2015 4:08:02 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
426 AM AST THU MAY 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER TROUGH JUST WEST AND NORTH OF THE REGION...
WILL MOVE NORTHWARD WHILE WEAKENING. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LEAVES THE AREA A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD AGAIN OVER THE
REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD...RELAXING THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. NOT
PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED OVER LAND AREAS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEST AND NORTH OF THE REGION
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD WHILE WEAKENING TODAY
AND TOMORROW. NAAPS AEROSOL MODEL INDICATES THAT THE DUST
CONCENTRATION WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TODAY AND INTO THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR DIURNALLY INDUCED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLANDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST
AND INTERIOR SECTION OF PUERTO RICO...WHERE LOCAL SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE AND FORCING WILL BE STRONGER. SO SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE INTERIOR INTO SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO...WITH ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE LONG
LASTING BECAUSE A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
FROM THE WEST DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO A
MOSTLY FAIR AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK AND DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK...A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL
DEVELOP SOUTH OF JAMAICA. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
A LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE WITH PWAT VALUES OVER 2.0 INCHES ACROSS
HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...CUBA AND PUERTO RICO WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY.
STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THRU THE
FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER TIL 14/12Z...SCT CLD LYRS BTW FL020-FL050 WITH
FEW TRADE WIND -SHRA EN ROUTE BTW ERN PR AND NRN LEEWARDS. BRIEF
MVFR CONDS PSBL BTW 14/18-21Z AS SHRA /ISOLD TSRA DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WEST AND SOUTHWESTERN INTERIOR PR...AND AFFECT MAINLY TJPS AND TJMZ.
E TO NE WINDS AT 5-15 KTS TIL 14/14Z...LGT/VRB AT SFC. AFT 14/14Z
WND BLO FL150 FM NE 15-20 KTS...SFC WND FM E-NE 10-15 KTS WITH OCNL
HIGHER GUSTS IN THE MID 20S. WND FM W ABV FL150 INCR/W HGT...WIND
MAX AROUND 50 KT BTW FL300-FL350. NO SIG OPERATIONAL WX IMPACTS ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY. SMALL CRAFT
ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS DUE
TO SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 77 87 77 / 20 20 20 30
STT 87 76 87 77 / 20 20 20 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather May 15, 2015 4:32:46 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on May 15, 2015 4:32:46 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
538 AM AST FRI MAY 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREATODAY
AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. BUT BEFORE IT CAN
GET OUT OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN A SECOND TROUGH FROM THE SAME LOW
WILL DIG INTO THE AREA WITH A JET STREAK THAT WILL BRUSH THE AREA
WITH 70 KNOTS WINDS. THE NEXT RIDGE WILL REACH THE AREA BY
THURSDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN.

AT MID LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE WILL KICK AROUND IN THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 10 DAYS WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE AREA FROM FLORIDA TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
MID LEVELS ARE DRY TODAY AND THEN BECOME A LITTLE MORE MOIST
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A MODERATE SURFACE LOW WILL DRIFT AROUND IN THE
ATLANTIC WELL NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK. AFTER WHICH HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RESTORED TO THE LOCAL
AREA AND EAST SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL BECOME A LITTLE STRONGER.
MOISTURE AT LOWER LEVELS TENDS TO VARY...BUT IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS MOVED THROUGH THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS AND ACROSS SAINT CROIX AND EASTERN PUERTO
RICO...BECOMING WEAKER AS THEY MOVED INLAND. FLOW WAS STILL EAST
NORTHEAST BUT WILL TURN TO EAST SOUTHEAST LATER ON TODAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TODAY BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS SOLUTION.
AFTER A DIP ON TUESDAY...MOISTURE WILL PEAK AGAIN ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AREAS OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL PLAY VERY LITTLE
PART IN THE GROWTH OF ACTIVITY TODAY...BUT PATCHES OF DIVERGENCE
MIGRATE ACROSS THE AREA MORE LATER IN THE COMING WEEK. RAIN WILL
DEPEND MAINLY ON THE LOWER AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE. AND ALTHOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE GOOD MOIST OF THE THE NEXT 10
DAYS...THE LAYER FROM 850 TO 550 MB IS STILL CONSISTENTLY DRYER
AND WILL LIMIT THE FORMATION OF SHOWERS. NEVERTHELESS EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS...GENERALLY ISOLATED...EACH AFTERNOON IN THE WESTER
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST...THE FLOW AT 850 MB WILL TURN MORE EAST
SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOWERS SHOULD FORM FIRST IN
THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN STRENGTHEN IN THE WEST NORTHWEST OF PUERTO
RICO. WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP THEIR WEAK
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LIMIT
RAINFALL IN THE NORTHEAST AND KEEP THE NORTH COAST WARMER THAN
NORMAL. NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THRU
THE FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER...PASSING SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS COULD
REACH PARTS OF THE WINDWARD AREAS OF THE ISLANDS THIS MORNING. BRIEF
MVFR CONDS AND MTN OBSCURATIONS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 15/18-22Z AS
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF PR...IMPACTING MAINLY TJMZ...TJBQ AND IN THE VICINITY
OF TJPS. LOW LEVEL EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT 5-15 KT EARLY...LIGHT
AND VRB DURING THE MORNING HRS OVER LAND...INCREASING AFTER 12Z
AT 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS IN THE MID 20S.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS REMAIN LESS THAN 6 FEET FOR THE MOST PART DURING
THE LAST PART OF THE WEEK AND WILL GENERALLY COME DOWN A LITTLE
BIT MORE BEFORE PEAKING OVERNIGHT ON SUNDAY. THE CARIBBEAN WILL
HAVE LOWER SEAS THAN THE ATLANTIC. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 86 77 / 20 30 20 30
STT 89 77 87 77 / 30 40 20 40

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather May 16, 2015 4:06:25 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on May 16, 2015 4:06:25 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
528 AM AST SAT MAY 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A STRONG TROUGH WELL NORTH NORTHEAST
OF THE AREA WILL CAUSE THE SUB TROPICAL JET TO INCREASE OVER THE
LOCAL AREA TODAY AND SUNDAY IN ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW. ON MONDAY NIGHT
A TROUGH FROM THE LOW WILL EXTEND INTO AND CROSS THROUGH THE AREA.
THE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL FOLLOW...CROSSING THROUGH ON THURSDAY
AND STALLING OVER THE AREA. CURRENTLY THE GFS HAS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE ON THE FOLLOWING MONDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IS THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE
AREA. NEVERTHELESS THERE IS SOME MOISTURE AND INFLUENCE FROM A
SHEAR LINE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
AND WHOSE INFLUENCE CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY AT MID
LEVELS. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE AREA.

AT LOWER LEVELS...MOISTURE FROM A SHEARLINE FROM A LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST WILL INCREASE UNSTEADILY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
THE DRIEST PERIOD OCCURRING MONDAY NIGHT WHEN MOST CONVECTION IS
USUALLY DEAD. THEREFORE EXPECT TO SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FORM OVER THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO EACH DAY FOR THE NEXT 7
DAYS...AT LEAST...WITH SOME SPILLOVER TO THE COASTAL SECTIONS AS
WINDS SHIFT. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER LEVELS NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE AND CONDITIONS MORE FAVORABLE TO CONVECTION
CONTINUE THEIR VERY GRADUAL RISE OVER THE AREA. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
SEEN MOVING IN FROM THE EAST WITH MORE AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE
WATERS BETWEEN VIEQUES AND SAINT CROIX. MOST SHOWERS MOVING FROM
THE CARIBBEAN ARE MOVING ONSHORE IN PUERTO RICO THEN FADING. MOST
SHOWERS ARE VERY LIGHT WHEN CROSSING OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
THE GFS SHOWS A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN THE PRECIPITABLE WATER AND
700 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN A PATCH OF MOISTURE EXPECTED TO ENTER
THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 16/18Z. THIS SHOULD PRIME
THE ISLAND FOR BETTER CONVECTION THAN SEEN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
SLOWER WINDS WILL LEAD TO LONGER DURATION SHOWERS. THE HEAVIER
ONES WILL LIKELY PRODUCE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING...MAINLY
IN THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND. WITH THE SHEAR LINE
HOLDING OVER THE AREA EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. AN INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR FROM A LARGE POOL OF DRY
AIR AT LOWER LEVELS OVER THE SUB TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL CUT
THROUGH THE AREA IN A NARROW RIBBON ON MONDAY NIGHT ACCORDING TO
CURRENT SOLUTIONS...BUT MOISTURE WILL RETURN BEFORE THE HEATING
THE NEXT DAY TO FIRE OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS.

DRYING IS EXPECTED OVER NEXT WEEKEND WHEN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
DRY POOL MOVES IN OVER THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THRU
THE FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER...PASSING TRADE WIND SHOWERS OVER THE
WATERS COULD REACH PARTS OF THE WINDWARD AREAS OF THE ISLANDS IN THE
MORNING. BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 16/18-22Z AS SHRA/ISOLD
TSRA ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF
PR...IMPACTING MAINLY TJMZ AND THE VICINITY OF TJBQ/TJPS. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS WILL INCREASE DURING THE PERIOD. AFT 16/12Z...WINDS
EASTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS REMAIN TRANQUIL WITH SEAS BETWEEN 2
TO 5 FEET. WINDS WILL CONTINUE BELOW 18 KNOTS ALTHOUGH HIGH GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED NEAR SHORE. WINDS INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 76 88 77 / 40 40 40 30
STT 86 76 87 77 / 30 40 40 10

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather May 17, 2015 4:11:55 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on May 17, 2015 4:11:55 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
602 AM AST SUN MAY 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A BRANCH OF THE SUB TROPICAL JET
CONTINUES OVER THE LOCAL AREA WITH WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO
AROUND 60 KNOTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH ALSO PASSES
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A MILD RIDGE ON
WEDNESDAY. RIDGING THEN CONTINUES EAST OF THE AREA INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH A NEW RIDGE REINFORCING IT NEXT SUNDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...A DOUBLE LOBED LOW ROTATES AROUND IN THE WEST
CENTRAL ATLANTIC UNTIL WEDNESDAY CAUSING SLIGHTLY LOWER PRESSURES
OVER THE AREA. THEN IT LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN DOMINATES THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE
ATMOSPHERE FROM 850-550 MB REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A SHEAR LINE FROM THE LOW TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA FOR SEVERAL MORE
DAYS...CONCENTRATING MOISTURE AND SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. A RIBBON
OF DRIER AIR CROSSES THROUGH FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BROAD PATCH OF MOISTURE. DRIER AIR ATTEMPTS TO
MOVE IN OVER THE WEEKEND BUT SEVERAL PATCHES OF MOISTURE ARE NOW
SHOWN MOVING THROUGH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS INCREASED OVERNIGHT AND NOW PEPPER THE LOCAL
WATERS AROUND THE NORTH AND SOUTH SIDES OF THE ISLANDS. A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE ALSO MOVED INLAND ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF PUERTO RICO
AND SHOWERS HAVE ALSO CROSSED THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. SINCE THE
SHOWERS ARE SMALL AND GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE...ACCUMULATIONS
HAVE GENERALLY BEEN SLIGHT. THE GFS SHOWS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHEAR LINE OVER AND JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...BUT IT IS NOT AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY AND WILL
FADE SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY. NEVERTHELESS THIS WILL SERVE TO
MAINTAIN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR INSTABILITY AND SHOWERS...AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY BE IN WESTERN
PUERTO RICO. SOME URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN TODAY...ALTHOUGH AGAIN NOT QUITE AS MUCH AS SATURDAY. THE
SHEAR LINE PULLS AWAY SLOWLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN A BULGE OF
MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ AND LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF PANAMA AT 700 MB
WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING ANOTHER WAVE OF
SHOWERS AHEAD OF DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR TO THE SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER
WEAK TROUGH WILL BRING MORE MOISTURE ON SATURDAY LEAVING THE
DRIEST AIR IN THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS.

THIS REPRESENTS AND OVERALL MOISTENING OF THE PATTERN THAT HAD
BEEN IN PLACE UP TO THIS PAST WEEK...AND WHILE IT MAY NOT BE
SUFFICIENT TO BRING RAINFALL LEVELS UP TO NORMAL VALUES FOR THE
MONTH...IT WILL HELP ALLEVIATE SOME OF THE DEFICIT BEING
EXPERIENCED.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THRU
THE FCST PERIOD. DURING THE MORNING HOURS BRIEF SHOWERS OVER THE
WATERS COULD REACH PARTS OF THE WINDWARD AREAS OF THE ISLANDS. BRIEF
MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 17/18-22Z AS SHRA/ISOLD TSRA ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR...IMPACTING
MAINLY TJMZ AND THE VICINITY OF TJBQ/TJPS. CALM TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS NEAR THE SFC...AFT 17/12Z E-NE WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND
15 KTS AND LOCALLY HIGHER IN/NEAR SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS ARE QUIETER TODAY WITH SOME BUOYS
REPORTING LESS THAN 3 FEET AND MOST BUOYS REPORTING LESS THAN 4
FEET. WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME NOW THROUGH MONDAY...BUT THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS EARLY THIS WEEK AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
EVEN MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY. NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE TUESDAY AFTER NEXT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 76 88 77 / 40 30 30 20
STT 87 75 87 76 / 40 10 10 10

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather May 18, 2015 4:59:20 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on May 18, 2015 4:59:20 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
637 AM AST MON MAY 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATION WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TODAY...THEN
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE ESTABLISHED FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE
REGION. ALSO...A SUBTROPICAL JET WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
FROM TODAY INTO TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A DRY AIR INTRUSION
FROM THE EAST IS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN PR AND THE USVI TODAY...
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BROAD PATCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AFTER
TUESDAY NIGHT.

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS MOVED NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE LOCAL
REGION. DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
MAINLY THE LOCAL WATERS SOME SHOWERS BRIEFLY AFFECTED THE
WINDWARD SECTIONS OF PR AND THE USVI.

TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS AND SOME OF THEM WILL BRIEFLY AFFECTED EASTERN PR AND THE
USVI. IN THE AFTERNOON...DECENT MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION
THEREFORE...ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THE CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA AS A
DRIER AIR MASS ATTEMPTS TO MOVE IN...HOWEVER ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF THE ISLANDS OF VIEQUES...CULEBRA...ST
THOMAS...ST JOHN AND ST CROIX.

AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED BY MID-WEEK AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ MOVES OVER THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE BEST PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS OVER
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
BETTER CHANCES OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK.

.AVIATION...AN AREA OF DRIER AIR CURRENTLY OVER TNCM AND TKPK WILL
MOVE OVER TISX AND TIST BY 18/18Z AND OVR TJNR AND TJSJ BY 19/04Z.
MOIST AIR FOLLOWS THIS BAND OF DRIER AIR CLOSELY AND BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR ARE EXPECTED OVR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY 18/21Z. ALSO
SHRA/TSRA WILL DVLP OVR WRN PR BY 18/17Z WITH MTN OBSCURATIONS AND
AREAS OF MVFR TIL ARND 19/02Z. WNDS ALF ESE 5 TO 15 KT UP THRU FL110
WITH LAND/SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT THE SFC. WINDS ABV FL120 WLY
INCRG TO 75 KT AT FL450.

.MARINE...EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. A 4
FOOT NORTH SWELL WAS OBSERVED AT SAN JUAN...AND THE RINCON BUOY.
ALSO...SEAS UP TO 7 FEET WERE REPORTED AT BUOY 41043.
THEREFORE...EXPECT SEAS UP TO 5 FEET ACROSS THE LOCAL OFFSHORE
WATERS...ELSEWHERE EXPECT BETWEEN 1 AND 4 FEET. HOWEVER...NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT SWELLS ARE APPROACHING AND DO NOT EXPECT WINDS
ENOUGH TO CAUSE SEAS HIGHER THAN 5 FT THIS WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 76 89 77 / 30 20 20 30
STT 86 74 86 74 / 10 20 30 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather May 19, 2015 4:54:40 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on May 19, 2015 4:54:40 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
632 AM AST TUE MAY 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ALOFT ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MEANWHILE...A MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE AT THAT LEVEL AT LEAST UNTIL THE WEEKEND. A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND A WEAKENING SHEAR LINE WILL PRODUCE SURFACE
CONVERGENCE TO MAINTAIN AN EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED SHOWERS MAINLY
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND SOME OF THEM MOVED ALONG THE NORTHERN
COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE ISLAND OF ST CROIX OVERNIGHT. TRADE
WIND SHOWERS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE WINDWARD SECTIONS
OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS ACROSS THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER...A DRYER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
REGION THIS MORNING. FOR THE AFTERNOON...THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
WILL COMBINE WITH THE LOCAL EFFECTS AND DIURNAL HEATING TO
PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. IN ADDITION...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

ALTHOUGH THE DYNAMICS ACROSS THE REGION ARE NOT THE MOST
FAVORABLE...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN
INCREASE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE CWA OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THEREFORE...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD SECTIONS OF
PR AND THE USVI...FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH ISOLD
T-STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR ARE
EXPECTED EACH DAY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THRU THE FCST
PERIOD EXCEPT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS IN SHRA PSBL IN AND ARND
TNCM/TKPK. BETWEEN 19/17-22Z SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED OVER
WESTERN/CENTRAL PR WITH MVFR CONDS MTN OBSCURATIONS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT...AFT 19/12Z EXPECT LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES
UP TO FL095 AROUND 10-14 KT...WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS NR SFC
AFT 19/14Z. WNDS ABV FL110 WLY INCRG TO 65 KT BY FL450.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WITH SEAS BELOW 5 FEET AND WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS. WINDS
CAN BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND AROUND SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 77 89 76 / 30 20 20 20
STT 86 76 87 75 / 30 40 40 40

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather May 20, 2015 4:25:38 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on May 20, 2015 4:25:38 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
514 AM AST WED MAY 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE TO SLOWLY INCREASE OVER LOCAL ISLANDS
THROUGH THU WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHING 2 INCHES. 00Z
TJSJ SOUNDING AND MIMIC-TPW PRODUCT SUGGEST IT MIGHT BE CLOSER
TO 2 INCHES THAN GFS IMPLIES. ONLY A VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL WAVE IS
APPROACHING IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND NOT LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE
TO DEVELOPING SHOWERS BY ITSELF. BUT A BROAD UPPER LEVEL JET IS
OVER THE AREA TOO AND UPPER DIVERGENCE COULD HELP SUSTAIN
CONVECTION ONCE IT STARTS...MORE LIKELY ON THU AS GFS SHOWS UPPER
DIVERGENCE OVER THE AREA THEN FROM 18Z-24Z. CIRRUS CLOUDS DO NOT
APPEAR WIDESPREAD OR THICK ENOUGH TO LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING SO
EXPECT WESTERN PR ESPECIALLY TO RECEIVE GOOD RAINS. THUNDER TOO
ESPECIALLY THU.

FRI TO BEGIN A SLOW DRYING TREND AGAIN AS THE WAVE MOVES ON BUT
DOES NOT BECOME VERY DRY AGAIN UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN A MID
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER FL AND BAHAMAS. GFS SHOWS IT NOT CAUSING
SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL DRYING THOUGH UNTIL ABOUT WED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS
THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR COULD PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDS IN AND
AROUND TJBQ AND TJMZ BETWEEN 20/19-22Z. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
ALSO LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WEST INTERIOR OF PR. WINDS WILL VEER
TO ESE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...RANGING BETWEEN 10-15 KTS BELOW FL070.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS TO BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS TODAY AND WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. BUT SEAS TO BE GENERALLY 4 FT OR
LESS UNTIL TRADE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN...REACHING 5 FT PROBABLY FRI
NIGHT/SAT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 90 77 / 30 20 40 40
STT 86 77 87 79 / 40 40 40 40

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather May 21, 2015 4:05:31 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on May 21, 2015 4:05:31 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
410 AM AST THU MAY 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...MODELS...ESPECIALLY GFS...ARE STILL DOWNPLAYING THE
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITABLE WATER WE HAVE ACROSS THE AREA AND IS
PROBABLY STILL ABOUT 2 INCHES EVEN AT SAN JUAN AND SLIGHTLY MORE
AT THE WEST END OF PR. THE BEST STREAM OF MOISTURE IS SLIGHTLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE ISLAND AND WILL GRADUALLY MOVE FARTHER NORTHWEST
AS GFS INDICATES. THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL BE MORE LIKELY LIMITED TO
WESTERN PARTS THIS TIME WITH DRIER AIR GRADUALLY APPROACHING FROM
THE EAST.

THE MOISTURE STREAM WILL NOT MOVE VERY FAR NORTHWEST BUT AN
APPROACHING CUTOFF LOW FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL DRY US OUT
SOMEWHAT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH VCSH ACROSS
THE LEEWARD AND USVI TERMINALS. AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE
BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDS ACROSS TJBQ...TJMZ AND POSSIBLY TJSJ BETWEEN 18-
21Z. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS LIKELY ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF
PR. LLVL WINDS WILL PREVAIL FM THE ESE AT 10-15 KT WITH HIGHER GUST
NEAR TSRA. WX CONDS WILL IMPROVE LATE THU INTO FRI.

&&

.MARINE...NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AT ABOUT 27N HIGH PRESSURE IS
MERGING EASTWARD AND INTO A LARGER RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
THE RIDGE WILL STILL EXTEND BACK TOWARDS THE WEST AND CAUSE THE
TRADE WINDS TO BECOME A LITTLE STRONGER OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT
WAVES WILL STILL NOT BUILD TO MORE THAN 5 FEET ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 77 90 78 / 40 40 20 20
STT 86 79 87 79 / 50 40 30 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather May 23, 2015 4:15:27 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on May 23, 2015 4:15:27 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
548 AM AST SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF BERMUDA IS PRESSING AGAINST
THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA MAINTAINED
THE SUBTROPICAL JET OVER PUERTO RICO. AT MID-LEVEL...A WEAK RIDGE
IS DOMINATING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
EXIT THE EASTERN US TONIGHT AND BUILD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON
SUNDAY...THEN BE ABSORBED BY A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC ON MONDAY. DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WITH SAHARAN
DUST PARTICLES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WETTER PATTERN POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE MONTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
WESTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. RADAR DETECTED VERY SMALL SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. NO MEASURABLE RAIN
WAS OBSERVED OVER THE ISLANDS. FOR THE REST OF THE MEMORIAL WEEKEND...
CONTINUE TO EXPECT DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS DOMINATING THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BETWEEN 850MB-700MB ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL KEEP THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS FOR
TODAY AND SUNDAY FAIRLY LOW. SUSPENDED SAHARAN DUST PARTICLES WILL
CREATE HAZY SKIES AND AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES. HI-RES MODEL
GUIDANCE ONLY SUGGEST A SHOWER OR TWO IN ISOLATED SPOTS OF WEST
PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WETTER TRADE WINDS WILL BRING SCATTERED
PASSING SHOWERS TO THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE ISLANDS AND WILL ALLOW
SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST PR EACH AFTERNOON.
BY THE END OF MAY...OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING DEEP MOISTURE
ADVECTING OVER PR/USVI IN RESPONSE TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESURE DEVELOPING
NEAR BAHAMAS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR LIKELY THRU SUN. TIST/TISX ARE APPARENTLY HAVING
FALSE CIGS DUE TO SAHARAN DUST WI IMPVG CONDS XPCTD ON SUN. SCT
SHRA/TSRA WESTERN PR SAT/SUN BUT SLIM CHC MVFR. WIND BLO FL100 E 12-
20 KT INCR 15-25 TDY THEN 12-20 AGAIN ON SUN.

&&

.MARINE...LOCAL AND REGIONAL BUOYS ARE REPORTING SEAS OF 4 FEET
OR LESS WITH WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH THE END
OF THE MONTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 88 77 / 20 20 20 40
STT 88 78 88 78 / 20 20 20 40

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather May 24, 2015 4:39:56 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on May 24, 2015 4:39:56 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
552 AM AST SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF VIRGINIA WILL
KEEP THE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION
THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ABSORBED
BY A STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ON
WEDNESDAY. AT MID TO UPPER LEVELS...TROUGH PATTERN WILL DOMINATE
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MOST OF THE WEEK. CUT-OFF LOW WILL DEEPEN
JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...INDUCING
A SURFACE TROUGH/LOW LATER IN THE WEEK. WETTER PATTERN POSSIBLE BY
THE END OF THE WEEK/MONTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR REFLECTIVITY DATA SHOW
LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING WEST ACROSS
THE REGION. ONLY A SHOWER OR TWO MOVE INLAND ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO
RICO SINCE MIDNIGHT. THE SAHARAN DUST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH MONDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL DROP
BELOW NORMAL AS THE DAY PROGRESSES LIMITING SOMEWHAT THE SHOWER
COVERAGE ACROSS THE ISLANDS TODAY. ALTHOUGH...MOISTURE WILL
DECREASE TODAY...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...
HOWEVER THE SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY. THIS
TRADE WIND PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. MOISTURE WILL
RECOVER ON FRIDAY WHEN A DEEP LAYER LOW ESTABLISH NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS AND A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE EAST. THE INDUCED
LOW WILL COMBINE WITH A TROPICAL WAVE TO PRODUCE A DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA...ENHANCING THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN REGION. MODEL SOLUTION
COULD CHANGE FROM RUN TO RUN...THEREFORE WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO SEE IF THE
WETTER PATTERN MATERIALIZE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR XCP VRY BRF MVFR CIG IN ISOLD SHRA...OR IN SCT
SHRA/TSRA SUN/MON AFT NR TJMZ. TIST/TISX STILL SHOWING OCNL FALSE
CIG DUE SAHARAN DUST...SHUD IMPRV LATE TDY AND BTR AGAIN ON MON.
WIND BLO FL100 E 14-22 KT BCMG 10-18 IN AFT-TONITE AND 8-14 KT MON.

&&

.MARINE...BOATERS SHOULD EXPECT SEAS OF 3-5 FEET AND WINDS BETWEEN
15-20 KTS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SMALL
CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
NORTH AND SOUTH PR THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO WINDS AROUND 20 KT.
ELSEWHERE...RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 87 77 / 20 20 20 20
STT 88 78 88 76 / 20 40 40 20

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Puerto Rico Weather

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