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cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather May 25, 2015 4:45:49 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on May 25, 2015 4:45:49 GMT -6

A big rain event is forecast for next weekend.Crossing fingers.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
552 AM AST MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WITH ASSOCIATED CUT OFF LOW
MEANDERING NORTH OF LOCAL ISLANDS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
AS CUT OFF LOW WEAKENS EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDGE PATTERN WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS LOCAL
ISLANDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BRIEF SHOWERS WITH LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATIONS WERE OBSERVED OVER WINDWARD AREAS. THE
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS
COASTAL AREAS. THE WIND BECAME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

ALTHOUGH TROFINNES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA MUCH OF THIS
WEEK...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN UNDER 850MB THRU THURSDAY. THEREFORE
LOCAL WEATHER REGIME WILL BE MAINLY DICTATED BY DIURNAL HEATING
AND SEA BREEZES. AS A RESULT...EXPECT SOME TRADE WIND SHOWERS
ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS IN THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND WEST OF THE CORDILLERA
IN THE AFTERNOON MONDAY THRU THURSDAY.

FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND..A SHARP INCREASE IN TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED AT ALL LEVELS. THIS WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDER ACTIVITY ACROSS LOCAL ISLANDS WITH
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE WEEKEND.
STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH AT LEAST 25/16Z. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE AT JMZ WITH MTN TOP
OBSCD FROM 25/17Z THROUGH 25/22Z DUE TO POSSIBLE SHRA/TSRA OVER
THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR. SFC WINDS FROM THE E-NE
AT 10 TO 15 KT...GUSTING UP TO THE LOW 20S AFTER 25/14Z...SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS DEVELOPING AROUND 25/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS LOCAL WATERS WITH SEAS
BELOW 5 FEET AND WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE DE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 87 78 / 20 30 30 20
STT 88 77 88 77 / 20 30 30 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather May 26, 2015 4:25:02 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on May 26, 2015 4:25:02 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
543 AM AST TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW WILL
CONTINUE NORTH OF LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE TROUGH ALOFT
WILL INDUCE A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA...PROMOTING A MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AS TROUGH ALOFT
WEAKENS EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDGE PATTERN WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS
OBSERVED ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS. THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS...WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS.

THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS
FEATURE WILL INDUCE A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN WHICH WILL PROMOTE A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN UNDER 850MB
THRU THURSDAY.

EXPECT TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS AS WELL AS
LOCALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND
WEST OF THE CORDILLERA EACH DAY THRU THURSDAY. FRIDAY AND INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...A SHARP INCREASE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED AT ALL LEVELS UNDER A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WITH
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. THIS WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE
OF SHOWER AND THUNDER ACTIVITY ACROSS LOCAL ISLANDS WITH
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE WEEKEND.
STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 26/17Z WITH SCT SHRA
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THIS MORNING. SOME OF THEM WILL BRIEFLY
AFFECT TJSJ/TIST/TISX/TKPK/TNCM. FOR THE AFTERNOON...BRIEF MVFR
CONDS POSSIBLE AT TJMZ/TJPS WITH MTN TOPS OBSCD FROM 26/17Z THROUGH
26/23Z DUE TO POSSIBLE SHRA/TSRA OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF PR. SFC WINDS UNTIL 26/12Z FROM THE E-NE AT 5 TO 10
KTS...AFT 26/12Z...AT 10 TO 15 KT...WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS...AND
GUSTING UP 25KT TIL 26/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS LOCAL WATERS WITH SEAS
BELOW 5 FEET AND WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 78 88 78 / 70 20 20 30
STT 88 77 88 77 / 70 20 20 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather May 27, 2015 4:16:12 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on May 27, 2015 4:16:12 GMT -6

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE INSTABILITY WILL BE BETTER JUST
SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS BUT INSTABILITY WILL STILL INCREASE
OVER THE ISLANDS. IN ADDITION...THE OVERALL MOISTURE AND THE
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS. BASED ON THE 27/00Z RUN FROM THE GFS
MODEL...THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL NOT BE THAT GOOD ON
FRIDAY...IN FACT IT SHOWS CONVERGENCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS ON
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...ON SATURDAY...THE MODEL SHOWS A SHARP INCREASE
UN UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITH CONVERGENCE AT THE SURFACE. THIS
MEANS THAT ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS RAINY ON FRIDAY WITH THE MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND THETA-E INCREASING...THE DAY WITH THE MOST
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ACTUALLY BE ON SATURDAY. THIS IS NOT TO SAY THAT
THERE WILL BE NO THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY...IT JUST THAT THE LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BETTER DYNAMICS ON SATURDAY FOR THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS COMPARED TO FRIDAY. SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE THERE
MAY STILL BE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BUT NOT AS MUCH AS
SATURDAY. STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST ON THIS.

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather May 28, 2015 4:19:25 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on May 28, 2015 4:19:25 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
408 AM AST THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS ALREADY BEGUN ABOVE 850 MB ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WHERE TROPICAL MOISTURE IS SURGING NORTHWEST.
THE FLOW WILL TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY BY TONIGHT WHICH WILL PUSH
THE HIGHEST MOISTURE MORE TOWARDS HISPANIOLA. ALL MODELS SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER PR PAST 2 INCHES BY FRI MORNING...EXCEPT
THE NAM WHICH HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE FRI NIGHT. BUT EVEN NAM SHOWS
GOOD RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON FRI AFTERNOON SO HAVE CONSERVATIVELY
PUSHED PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL INTO LIKELY CATEGORY FOR NORTHERN
PR WESTWARD FROM SAN JUAN FOR FRI AND SAT AFTERNOONS. GFS ALSO
SHOWS SOME 250 MB DIVERGENCE ON FRI WHICH COULD HELP DEVELOPMENT
BUT THE MODEL IS NOT VERY GOOD AT LOCATING THIS PARAMETER. THE
OTHER MAIN CAVEAT APPEARS TO BE THE AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS WE MAY
HAVE WHICH WOULD REDUCE HEATING AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PERSISTENT HIGH CLOUDS BUT IS LIKELY OVERDONE.
GFS SUGGESTS KEEPING PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE VICINITY OF 2
INCHES ALMOST ALL OF NEXT WEEK AND COULD BE A GOOD WEEK FOR RAIN
ACROSS THE ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL LOCAL TERMINALS THROUGH
28/17Z WITH VCSH DUE TO QUICK SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. FROM
28/17Z TO 28/23Z...MVFR PSBL MAINLY ACROSS TJBQ AND TJMZ DUE TO
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE NW QUADRANT OF PR. SFC WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AT AROUND 5KT THROUGH 28/13Z...BECOMING E-ESE AT AROUND
10KT WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS THEREAFTER.

&&

.MARINE...GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
BUT INCREASE A LITTLE INTO THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO INCREASE BEGINNING ON FRIDAY AS TROPICAL MOISTURE
ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 89 76 / 20 20 60 50
STT 86 77 86 78 / 20 40 40 50

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather May 29, 2015 4:29:41 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on May 29, 2015 4:29:41 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
624 AM AST FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE WEST...THEN AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE LOCAL AREA BY TUESDAY. A
TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN LATER TODAY AND INCREASE THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND ANS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A RATHER INTERESTING SETUP IS IN STORE FOR TODAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. AT THE TIME...CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE AS WE SEEM
TO HAVE SEVERAL QUESTIONS ABOUT THE IMPACT BE OF SUCH AS
SETUP...CONSIDER THE LACK OF RAINFALL THAT EASTERN PR AND THE USVI
HAS OBSERVED IN THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS...THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING
IN WITH THE UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...THE HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND THE DISCREPANCY FROM THE
DIFFERENT MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE
MAIN FORECASTER CONSENSUS IS THAT AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED STARTING TODAY AND LASTING
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. OCCASIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND ACROSS DIFFERENT
SECTORS IN THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. AT LEAST SOME URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

CURRENTLY WE HAVE AN UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE EAST. THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES JUMPING TO ALMOST 2 INCHES BY THIS AFTERNOON. WHEN THIS
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS COMBINED WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
LOCAL EFFECTS...SOME GOOD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORMALLY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IR IS SHOWING
AN AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING BUT
THE RADAR HAS YET TO DETECT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CLOUDINESS OVER THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS. HAVING SAID
THAT...THE GUADELOUPE RADAR DOES SHOW SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AND THE
SHOWERS ARE MOVING RATHER FAST TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST. A FEW OF
THOSE SHOWERS LOOK MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY. THIS CLOUDINESS IS
QUITE LARGE ANS MAY LINGER OVER PR AND THE USVI AT LEAST THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS...WHICH WILL LIMIT SURFACE HEATING OVER THE
ISLANDS...LIMITING THE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND OVER PR AND THE USVI. THIS IS
BASICALLY THE OPPOSITE TO WHAT THE SAME MODEL HAS BEEN SAYING FOR
THE PAST 5 DAYS OR SO. UP UNTIL TODAY...THE GFS MODEL INDICATED
CONVERGENCE FOR TODAY IN THE UPPER LEVELS...STRONG DIVERGENCE
ALOFT WOULD BE CONDUCIVE TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
THE HI- RES MODELS SUCH AS THE WRF 2KM AND 6KM AND THE NMM ARE
SHOWING LITTLE TO NO SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY OVER THE ISLANDS...THE
GFS SHOWS SOME ACTIVITY BUT THE ONLY MODEL THAT IS RATHER BULLISH
ON THE PRECIP IS THE ARW MODEL WHICH SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
PRECIP ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND NW- PR...WITH SOME ISOLATED
AREAS OF PRECIP ELSEWHERE. OUR FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY BUT
IT STILL SHOWS A STEADY INCREASE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE CARIBBEAN WATERS HAVING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THE INTERIOR OF PR INTO NW-PR DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE.

SATURDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY ACTIVE DAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS
MODEL USED TO BE PRETTY CONSISTENT SHOWING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...THE 29/00Z RUN STILL SHOWS THAT
DIVERGENCE ALOFT BUT DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WHILE THE 29/06Z
RUN ONCE AGAIN SHOWS THAT DIVERGENCE ALOFT DURING THE DAY AND THEN
LINGERING INTO THE EVENING. EITHER CASE...THE DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS
QUITE STRONG ACCORDING TO THE GFS MODEL...WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE
STILL VERY GOOD WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL HOVERING AT
AROUND 2 INCHES. THE NMM MODEL AND WRF ARE ALSO NOT LIKING THIS
SETUP VERY MUCH AND ARE SHOWING A RELATIVELY DRY SATURDAY...HOWEVER
THE ARW MODEL BRINGS IN A LOT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
LOCAL ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF PR AND THE USVI.
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS MODEL THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE
GOOD AND THE DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL BE STRONG THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY.

SO WE DO EXPECT A RATHER ACTIVE WEEKEND...EVEN WITH SOME OF THE
HI-RES MODELS INDICATING LITTLE TO NO PRECIP THESE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE BIG PICTURE SETUP IS CONDUCIVE TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...AT LEAST ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A PROFILE MORE
CONSISTENT WITH HIGH CLOUDINESS BUT NOT AS MUCH PRECIP FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

THERE ARE QUESTIONS ON THE POTENTIAL IMPACT THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE OVER THE ISLANDS. THE DISCREPANCY BETWEEN
THE GLOBAL AND THE HI-RES MODELS AND THE FACT THAT EASTERN PR IS
SO DRY...IT WAS DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL
WE SAW HOW THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS PATTERN AND HOW MUCH RAIN
IT ACTUALLY FALLS TODAY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. WE HAVE TO TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT NOT ONLY METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS BUT ALSO
HYDROLOGICAL CONDITIONS...AND RIGHT NOW THE HYDROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS ARE THAT THE RIVERS ARE RUNNING VERY LOW AND THE SOIL
ACROSS EASTERN PR IS IN NEED OF SOME WATER...IT WILL TAKE A LOT OF
RAIN TO CAUSE RIVER FLOODING ACROSS EASTERN PR...NOT SO MUCH FOR
THE WESTERN HALF OF PR WHICH HAS OVSERVED CONSISTENT RAINFALL FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

STAY TUNED FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES AS WE GATHER MORE INFORMATION ON
THIS EVENT TODAY.

WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY TUESDAY AND INTO THE
REST OF THE WEEK...WITH A MORE TYPICAL PATTERN OF MORNING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE WATERS AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS.

&&

.AVIATION...INCREASING SHRA AND TSRA EN ROUTE FROM THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL AFFECT THE FLYING AREA OF TNCM AND TKPK THRU
THE FCST PERIOD...SPREADING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN PR AND THE USVI BY
14Z. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE AND WIDESPREAD OBSCURATIONS LIKELY IN HIGHER
TERRAIN AND NORTHWESTERN PR AFT 16Z. SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT EXPECTED
BELOW 5 KFT WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR TSRA...SW-W WINDS ABV/INCREASING
W/HEIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE AT 4 FEET OR LESS AND 10
KNOTS OR LESS RESPECTIVELY TODAY. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY DUE TO INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AND INCLEMENT WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGIONAL
WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 78 87 75 / 60 40 80 50
STT 84 77 86 76 / 50 50 70 60

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather May 30, 2015 3:48:26 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on May 30, 2015 3:48:26 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
353 AM AST SAT MAY 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN RE-DEVELOPING OVER
USVI SINCE MIDNIGHT. THEY EXTEND WELL TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH AND
MOVING WEST ABOUT 12 KNOTS...HAVING REACHED VIEQUES. THERE IS
APPARENTLY A SMALL LOW LEVEL WAVE AND A WIND SURGE FOLLOWING THE
STORMS. 00Z WRF AND 18Z ARW MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE CAUGHT SOME
SEMBLENCE OF THIS BUT WRF WAS ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOW AND ARW ONLY
PUSHED THE STORMS TO THE NORTH OF ST. THOMAS. EXTRAPOLATION OF
THE LINE FROM RADAR...WHICH IS WEAKENING A LITTLE...WOULD PUSH
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS EASTERN PR EARLY THIS MORNING SO RAISED
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION THERE SOMEWHAT.

LOTS OF CIRRUS PASSING OVER ISLANDS BUT BELIEVE IT IS THIN ENOUGH
TO ALLOW GOOD HEATING FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO OCCUR MOST OF
ISLAND...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST QUARTER OF MAIN ISLAND OF PR. NO
UPPER JET LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO HELP GENERATE THIS BUT THE LOW LEVEL
WAVE MIGHT INITIALIZE SOME BY LATE THIS MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE ISLAND. THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS TOO WEAK TO CAUSE MUCH
CONVECTION WITHOUT HEATING OF ISLANDS EVEN THOUGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER WILL HOVE NEAR 2 INCHES EVEN INTO NEXT WEEK. GFS INDICATES
NO SIGNIFICANT DROP OFF IN MOISTURE UNTIL ABOUT THU.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TO MVFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE FCST PERIOD...SPREADING FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
TO THE USVI AND EASTERN PR TERMINALS. THEN AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RE-DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL FLYING AREA MVFR/BRIEF IFR
CONDS POSSIBLE ACROSS ISX/JBQ/JMZ/JSJ AND THE VCNTY OF JPS...WITH
MULTIPLE SCT/BKN LAYERS AND MAX TOPS NEAR 40 KFT. WIDESPREAD MTN
OBSCURATIONS STILL LIKELY ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PR. SE WINDS AT 10-15 KT EXPECTED BELOW 10 KFT WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS AFTER 14Z. HIGHER GUSTS NEAR TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WITH DEEP MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY MON WITH HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO RE-
ESTABLISH TRADE WINDS. BUT THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TOO WEAK AND
TOO FAR AWAY TO STRENGTHEN TRADES VERY MUCH BEFORE WEAKENING AGAIN
BY TUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 77 87 77 / 70 50 40 30
STT 87 80 87 78 / 60 60 30 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather May 31, 2015 4:14:12 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on May 31, 2015 4:14:12 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
402 AM AST SUN MAY 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE HIGHEST MOISTURE...AS NOTED ON THE 2.28 INCHES
OF PRECIPITABLE WATER ON THE 00Z TJSJ RAOB HAS MOVED NORTH AND
WEST OF PR. STILL A LOT OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN WATERS BUT
THESE WILL DECREASE AND KEEP ON MOVING AWAY. ACCORDING TO 00Z GFS
THE MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN THE 1.8 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE UNTIL LATE
THU...ALL THE WHILE ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS. SO POTENTIAL REMAINS
FOR GOOD SHOWERS IF SUFFICIENT HEATING CAN BE REALIZED IN THE RIGHT
PLACES. STILL A LOT OF MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WHICH WILL LIMIT
THE HEATING SOME AT TIMES. BEST POTENTIAL FOR RAIN EACH DAY THIS
WEEK WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF PR BUT SHOWERS
SCATTERED AT TIMES OVER THE EAST AND SOUTH TOO...AND MAINLY AT
NIGHT ACROSS UVSI IN TRADE WIND SHOWERS. MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY TEND TO DRY OUT THE AIR BETWEEN 850 MB AND 600 MB AND
LIMIT THE EFFICIENCY OF RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FCST PERIOD
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. HOWEVER...VCSH EN ROUTE FROM THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS TO EASTERN PR AND SCT-BKN LAYERS BETWEEN FL100-150 EXPECTED
OVR THE MONA PASSAGE AND ATLANTIC WATERS THRU SUN MORNING. SHRA/TSRA
LIKELY ONCE AGAIN ON SUN AFTERNOON...COULD RESULT IN MVFR/IFR CONDS
IN AND AROUND TJBQ/TJMZ AND POSSIBLY TJSJ BETWEEN 16Z-21Z.
WIDESPREAD OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED IN HIGHER TERRAIN. E TO SE WINDS 10-
15 KT BELOW 10 KFT WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR TSRA AFT 16Z...SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS EXPECTED AFTER 14Z.

&&

.MARINE...EXITING TROPICAL WAVE IS FINALLY ALLOWING THE RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO RE-ESTABLISH TRADE WINDS A LITTLE THIS MORNING.
BUT IT WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST...CAUSING THE TRADES TO WEAKEN
AGAIN BY ABOUT TUE. SEAS WILL RESPOND TO THE TRADES TO REACH 5 FT
ACROSS MUCH OF SURROUNDING WATER NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT WILL LAY
DOWN AGAIN BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 90 78 / 40 30 30 10
STT 86 78 88 78 / 30 30 30 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Jun 1, 2015 4:22:45 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Jun 1, 2015 4:22:45 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
616 AM AST MON JUN 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS THRU MID WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF THE ISLANDS
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TROPICAL
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS. PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS AND ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. HOWEVER...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH. AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS NORTH OF THE AREA...PWAT WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THRU AT LEAST THURSDAY. THIS AVAILABLE
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS WILL
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH
AFTERNOON. MODERATE TRADES WILL BRING PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS
DURING THE NIGHT TIME.

MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT PWAT VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP
BELOW NORMAL AS AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA AND A STRONG SAL REACHES THE CARIBBEAN BY THE END OF THE
WEEK/EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR XPCTD XCP MVFR IN SOME AFT SHRA/TSRA NW PR AGAIN
MON/TUE AFT...OBSCD MTNS TOO. FEW MVFR IN ISOLD/SCT SHRA THRU TUE
ELSEWHERE. WIND THRU TUE ESE 8-20 KT TO FL080...VRBL NR FL100...
VEERING TO W ABV AND INCR W HGT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TODAY IN RESPONSE
TO A WIND SURGE IN THE TRADES. HOWEVER...THEY WILL SUBSIDE AGAIN
TOMORROW AS INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS
SHIFTS EASTWARD AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 78 90 77 / 40 20 30 40
STT 88 80 87 78 / 20 30 30 40

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Jun 3, 2015 3:57:44 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Jun 3, 2015 3:57:44 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
531 AM AST WED JUN 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH
FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND AN INDUCED LOW LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO
MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON FRIDAY AND BRING ADDITIONAL TROPICAL MOISTURE
TO THE LOCAL AREA INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. BY LATE SUNDAY AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A SAHARAN AIR
LAYER AND EXTENSIVE AREA OF SUSPENDED SAHARAN DUST PARTICULATES
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND LOCAL REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT
TO COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS TO SUPPORT
ANOTHER ROUND OF LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE ISLANDS TODAY. WITH THE PREVAILING EAST TO SOUTHEAST STEERING
FLOW...EXPECT AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO BE FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS PART OF
THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF MODERATE
TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL THEREFORE REMAIN LIKELY IN THESE AREAS...
AND THEREFORE MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. SHOWERS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

BY THURSDAY...AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD...EXPECT A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING
OF THE CAP INVERSION OVER THE REGION. IN ADDITION SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR/SUBSIDENCE
JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROPICAL SHOULD DECREASE CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...ON FRIDAY
AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY
THE TROPICAL WAVE. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
EARLY MORNING AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLANDS.

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SO FAR SUGGESTS
SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITION BY LATE SUNDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE SAL AND ACCOMPANYING SAHARAN DUST WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION AND HELP TO SUPPRESS/LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
AND SEE HOW THIS UNFOLDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS WILL PROMOTE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS TIST...TISX AND TJSJ DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS...MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS TJBQ...TJMZ AND TJSJ DUE TO SHRA/TSRA...AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST
SURFACE WINDS OF 10-15 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN/NEAR SHRA/TSRA. SEA
BREEZE ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AFT 03/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY INCREASE ONCE AGAIN BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...EXCEPT FOR NEAR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN PR FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 91 78 / 60 30 30 20
STT 87 79 87 79 / 50 30 30 40

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Jun 4, 2015 4:02:35 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Jun 4, 2015 4:02:35 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
546 AM AST THU JUN 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL REGION
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
ERODE/SUPPRESS MOISTURE AS THE TRADE WIND INVERSION STRENGTHENS.
IN THE MEANTIME...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
ATLANTIC AND AN INDUCED LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXITING THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN TODAY WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.THIS
WILL HELP MAINTAIN A FAIR AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AROUND AT
LEAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BY SUNDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL BUILD WEST AND SOUTHWEST ACROSS ATLANTIC ...AND THIS WILL
BRING DRIER CONDITIONS AND MAINTAIN AN EAST SOUTHEAST TRADE WIND
FLOW. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST WILL SPREAD OVER THE
REGION BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE TRAILING THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WAS HELPING
TO KEEP SHOWERS GOING ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. A FEW SHOWERS
WERE BRUSHING THE EAST COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS
SOME OF THE ADJACENT ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME. FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY...EXPECT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AVAILABILITY TO COMBINE WITH
LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECT FOR SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE.

ON FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY...EXPECTED ANOTHER QUICK
SURGE OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION ACCOMPANYING THE WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE. THIS WILL AGAIN INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR ENHANCED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS AND COASTAL
WATERS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY HOWEVER SHOULD AFFECT BE FOCUSED OVER
THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DUE TO BETTER LOCAL
FORCING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THE PREVAILING WIND FLOW SHOULD
STEER THE ACTIVITY TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST DURING EACH DAY.

THEREAFTER AND BY SUNDAY...A DRIER AND STABLE AIR MASS IS FORECAST
AS THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER AND A HIGH CONCENTRATION OF SUSPENDED
SAHARAN DUST PARTICULATES WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. BY THEN THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
ARE ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT VCSH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TJSJ...TISX...
TNCM AND TKPK FLYING TERMINALS DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS.
AFTER 04/17Z...MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT TJBQ AND
TJMZ DUE TO SHRA/TSRA...AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL. LIGHT AND EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE
MORNING...STRENGTHENING TO 10-15 KTS FROM THE EAST WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS AFTER 04/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS EXPECTED TODAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE MARINE CONDITIONS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY
TIGHTENS AND THE MODERATE EASTERLY TRADES RETURN. HOWEVER SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE SO FAR NOT EXPECTED TO BE MET FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 80 90 78 / 20 20 40 20
STT 87 80 88 80 / 40 30 30 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Jun 5, 2015 5:53:49 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Jun 5, 2015 5:53:49 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
525 AM AST FRI JUN 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY BUILD WEST AND SOUTH INTO SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. THIS
WILL EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A GRADUAL TIGHTENING OF THE LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND INCREASING EAST TO SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. IN THE MEANTIME A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE NOW ENTERING
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD AND BRING A QUICK SURGE
OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. TRAILING THIS FEATURE
IS A SAHARAN AIR LAYER...WHICH WILL BRING DRIER AIR AND A MODERATE
CONCENTRATION OF SUSPENDED DUST PARTICULATES TO THE REGION BY SUNDAY
AND CONTINUE THOUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SLOT OF DRIER AIR IN ADVANCE OF THE WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WAS NOW
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER
BY LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...EXPECT A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AS THE WAVE CONTINUES
WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
ALONG WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
ENHANCED AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO. ONLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED BRIEF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS SOME MOISTURE WILL TRAIL THE DEPARTING
TROPICAL WAVE. HOWEVER...MORE STREAMER CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
OCCUR DUE TO THE INCREASING TRADE WINDS.

AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND...AND THE SUBSIDENCE CAP INVERSION STRENGTHENS...EXPECT
GRADUAL EROSION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE BY LATE SATURDAY AND DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS
SATELLITE IMAGERY ALL SUGGEST A GRADUAL DECREASE IN PWAT VALUES BY
SUNDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE...DRIER
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION FROM THEN ON
AND AT LEAST UNTIL TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THEREAFTER...ANOTHER
ROUND OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AND EASTERLY PERTUBATIONS ARE FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION MODELS HINT A DEVELOPING
SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND GRADUALLY ERODE THE RIDGE
ALOFT INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY THE
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. MORE TO COME ON THIS LATER IN TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...DRIER AIR HAS MOVED OVER THE LOCAL FLYING AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING...INDUCING MOSTLY VFR CONDS ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL HELP GENERATE
AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER WESTERN...INTERIOR
AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO INDUCING PERIODS OF MVFR/PSBL
BRIEF IFR OVER TJMZ AND TJBQ AFT 05/18Z WITH MTN TOP OBSCURATIONS
AFT 05/16Z. WINDS MAINLY FM E-ESE BLO FL150...THEN BACKING AND BCM
FM N WHILE INCR W/HT ABV.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS TODAY...WITH WINDS GENERALLY
BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS STILL
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH SEAS UP TO 6 POSSIBLE OVER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND LOCAL PASSAGES...AND WINDS INCREASING TO
UP TO 20 KNOTS IN SOME AREAS BY SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 80 91 79 / 40 20 30 30
STT 87 80 87 80 / 30 30 30 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Jun 6, 2015 4:29:52 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Jun 6, 2015 4:29:52 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
449 AM AST SAT JUN 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC...NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE A GRADUAL TIGHTENING IN THE LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INDUCE A MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST
TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK TROPICAL MOVED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE HAS
BEEN FAIRLY MINIMAL AND THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ONLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND EASTERN
AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS
MORNING. FOR THIS AFTERNOON THE MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND THE WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS TO
INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL...INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. AFTER THE WAVE PASSAGE...LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE IMAGES ARE SUGGESTING THE ARRIVAL OF A
SAHARAN AIR LAYER FROM THE EAST...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BRING DRIER
AND HAZY WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED BY
MID WEEK NEXT WEEK...BUT NO SIGNIFICANCE WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED
TO AFFECT THE REGION IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST TAF SITES THRU THE
FCST PD. BRIEF PDS OF MVFR PSBL VCNTY TNCM AND TKPK TIL 06/13Z. ALSO
SOME SCT-BKN LOW LVL CLDS BTW FL020-FL070 ...SCT HIGH LVL CIRRUS
CLDS NR FL250. SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA DEVELOPMENT PSBL OVR N CARL INTERIOR
AND WRN PR 06/18Z AND MAY APRCH VCNTY TJMZ AND TJBQ FOR BRIEF PDS OF
SHRA. WINDS BLO FL160 FM SE 5 TO 15 KT...BCMG FM N AND INCRG W/HT
ABV TO MAX OF 50 KTS OR SO NR FL480. NO OTHER SIG AVN OPERATIONAL
HAZARDS FORECAST ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET THIS MORNING...INCREASING UP TO 6 FEET
ON SUNDAY WITH WINDS OF 15 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 93 80 90 78 / 30 30 30 10
STT 88 81 88 79 / 30 20 20 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Jun 8, 2015 4:09:25 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Jun 8, 2015 4:09:25 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
542 AM AST MON JUN 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
LOCAL AREA UNTIL HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WEST CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN LATE THIS WEEK. A CUT-OFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN JUST
EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS UNTIL IT MOVES NORTH AND IS ABSORBED
INTO THE DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE
WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE
AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MID LEVELS ARE DRY EXCEPT FOR LIMITED
MOISTURE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER CONTINUES THROUGH THE
ENTIRE 10-DAY PERIOD. A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 30 WEST WEAKENS
CONSIDERABLY BEFORE PASSING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FEW SHOWERS WERE SEEN OVERNIGHT AND NO SHOWERS WERE
OBSERVED OVER LAND USING THE TDWR. WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS FOR NOW...MOISTURE
REMAINS SHALLOW AND HENCE ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN
NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM THIS
AFTERNOON OWING TO STRONG SURFACE HEATING. CURRENTLY WINDS ARE
ALMOST SOUTHEAST UP THROUGH 8500 FEET AND ALTHOUGH SOME BACKING IS
EXPECTED THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SEND THE TEMPERATURES SOARING
AGAIN IN THE GREATER SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA. THE MAXIMUM WAS
93 DEGREES YESTERDAY AND SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
OTHER WARES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL. AT THE LUIS MUNOZ
MARIN AIRPORT THE RECORD HIGH WAS 96 DEGREES SET IN 1975 AND IS
NOT LIKELY TO BE BROKEN TODAY.

WINDS AT 700 MB IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC ARE CARRYING TROPICAL
WAVES OUT OF THE SAHARA WITH ONE AT 30 WEST THIS MORNING...BUT
THESE SAME WINDS ARE ALSO CARRYING CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF DUST
AND THE WAVES WILL REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS DUST HAS
LIKELY JUST PEAKED AND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE FIRST PART
OF THIS WEEK. ANOTHER AREA OF DUST WILL ARRIVE NEXT WEEK. AS
ALWAYS THE DUST IS ACCOMPANIED BY VERY DRY AIR.

MOISTURE FROM AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL WRAP
AROUND THE 700 MB HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND MOVE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING
A LITTLE ADDED MOISTURE AT THAT LEVEL. A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH IN THE LOWER LEVELS AT THE SAME TIME BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LITTLE AFFECTED. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A FEW MORE SHOWERS OVER
THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL
REMAIN DRIER THAN NORMAL AS THE TROPICAL WAVES REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH.
MODELS SUGGEST BETTER THAN NORMAL MOISTURE TO ARRIVE MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK...BUT PRESENTLY CONFIDENCE IN THIS OUTCOME IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. HAZY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DUE TO SAHARAN
DUST PARTICLES...HOWEVER VIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN P6SM. DURING
THE AFTERNOON...CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL...HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. EASTERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KTS
WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFT 08/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS SOUTH OF THE AREA ARE STRONGER AND BUOY
42059 WAS APPROACHING 8 FEET WITH WINDS OF NEARLY 20 KNOTS...BUT
EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN 5 FEET OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY INSIDE THE
FORECAST AREA. SOME WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS MAY BRING LOCALLY
HIGHER SEAS AROUND THE SOUTH PART OF PUERTO RICO AND SMALL CRAFT
WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE NEEDED THIS WEEK NOR EARLY INTO THE NEXT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 79 91 78 / 0 10 10 10
STT 88 79 89 78 / 10 10 10 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Jun 9, 2015 5:39:48 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Jun 9, 2015 5:39:48 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
535 AM AST TUE JUN 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A WEAK
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
TROUGH WILL CAUSE A CUT-OFF LOW TO FORM JUST NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
EARLY IN THE WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL SPREAD
OVER A WIDE AREA OF THE CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC FROM NEAR GEORGIA
TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. MID LEVELS ARE MOSTLY DRY EXCEPT FOR A
WEAK INTRUSION OF MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO THE NORTHEAST WITH
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS FLOW. PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE PASSES THROUGH ON SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE LAST ONE IN THIS 10 DAY PERIOD PASSES THROUGH WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE OF ALL ON TUESDAY NIGHT OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS...SMALL...SHALLOW AND LIGHT MOVED
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT. A FEW WERE ALSO SEEN IN
THE ATLANTIC. ACCUMULATIONS WERE SLIGHT...ANY. DRY WEATHER
CONTINUES...ALTHOUGH THE SAHARAN DUST WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
SLOWLY TODAY AND TOMORROW. BOTH THE NAM5 AND THE GFS MODELS ARE
FORECASTING SOME MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY...MAINLY OVER
WESTERN PUERTO RICO. AM SKEPTICAL THAT MUCH WILL COME OF THIS
ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO FROM
HORMIGUEROS TO EAST OF MAYAGUEZ. MOISTURE INCREASES DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY AND MORE SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THEN
THAN TODAY. NEVERTHELESS CONSIDERABLY LESS RAIN WILL FALL IN
EASTERN PUERTO RICO THAN WESTERN PUERTO RICO THEN ALSO. SHOWERS
AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...BUT FRIDAY WILL SEE
SOME DRYING. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO
SUPPLY A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE THAT SHOULD LAST INTO SUNDAY...AGAIN
AT LEAST IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO. THE LAST AND BEST TROPICAL WAVE
WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WITH SOME CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH DRY MID-
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS MOST RAIN ACTIVITY IN THE AREA.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE SLIGHTLY SUNDAY AND AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THE HELP OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MENTIONED ABOVE...BUT SIGNIFICANT
RAIN STILL APPEARS TO BE DELAYED BEYOND THE PRESENT FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED DURING MOST OF THE FCST PERIOD. HAZY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED BUT VIS TO REMAIN P6SM. SHRA AND CLOUD FORMATION
ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND WESTERN PR ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON HRS. BRIEF MVFR CONDS AND MTN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN/AROUND TJMZ/TJBQ BETWEEN 09/18 AND 09/23Z. EAST WINDS AT 10 TO
15 KTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY TRANQUIL AT
PRESENT...ALTHOUGH LOCAL NEARSHORE WINDS ON THE ATLANTIC COAST OF
PUERTO RICO IS REACHING 18 KNOTS EACH AFTERNOON. SOME INCREASE IN
WINDS WILL ALLOW WAVES TO GROW ANOTHER FOOT IN THE EXPOSED AREAS
ELSEWHERE WHERE SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION LATER
THIS WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 79 88 76 / 0 10 10 30
STT 88 77 88 76 / 0 20 20 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Jun 10, 2015 4:53:41 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Jun 10, 2015 4:53:41 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
630 AM AST WED JUN 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SOME WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS EXPECTED
TO LEAVE THE AREA TODAY...THEREFORE HAZINESS IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE TONIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
ISLANDS FRIDAY...WITHOUT NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT OVER PR/USVI.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A LAYER OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS...AND HAZY CONDITIONS WERE
OBSERVED ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA OVERNIGHT. TRADE WIND
SHOWERS WERE DETECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...SOME OF THEM
MOVED INLAND OVER THE WINDWARD SECTIONS OF PR AND USVI...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT RAIN WAS OBSERVED.

AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS AND THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
AND CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY INCREASE...DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE
ENHANCED SOMEWHAT OVER THE WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ALSO...SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE OF THE USVI AND VIEQUES AND CULEBRA. THEREFORE...THE ARRIVAL
OF THE MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCAL
EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN
PUERTO RICO. THE SAHARAN DUST WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT.

A TROPICAL WAVES WILL MOVE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS ON
FRIDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING AN INCREASE IN THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SAHARAN AIR
LAYER ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...GFS IS SUGGESTING A BETTER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS BY NEXT WEEK AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES CLOSER TO THE
LOCAL ISLANDS ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...MODELS ARE
SHOWING UNCERTAINTY RUN TO RUN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED EXCEPT...SCT SHRA WILL BRING BRIEF
MVFR CONDS TO TKPK AND TNCM. SHRA/TSRA WILL DVLP AFT 10/17Z INTERIOR
AND WRN PR WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND MTN OBSCURATIONS TIL AFT 11/00Z.
WINDS ELY NR SFC 5 TO 15 KT WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AND HIGHER
GUSTS. WINDS ELY 20 TO 25 KTS FROM FL035 TO FL160.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS BETWEEN 2 AND 5 FEET WITH OCCASIONAL SEAS OF 6
FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS DUE TO SEA BREEZE FORMATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO WATERS. THERE IS
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE BEACHES OF JOBOS...MANATI
AND VEGA BAJA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 77 90 79 / 20 20 30 20
STT 88 77 87 79 / 20 30 30 20

Shoutbox

northshoreelise: not on the 12z... Oct 10, 2024 12:15:21 GMT -6

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tcane: This sure looks like it dies quickly. maybe falling apart before metro New Orleans? Just looking at the lat dozen posts and images here. Sept 10, 2024 11:26:27 GMT -6

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Deleted: Ernesto gonna mog hard.
I'm voting Alberto, Ernesto, Rafael and Deshawn Apr 1, 2024 19:15:21 GMT -6

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Puerto Rico Weather

Post by cycloneye on May 25, 2015 4:45:49 GMT -6

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