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cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Jul 15, 2015 4:33:04 GMT -6

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Post by cycloneye on Jul 15, 2015 4:33:04 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
400 AM AST WED JUL 15 2015

.DISCUSSION...LATEST BAND OF DRY AIR HAS BEEN ARRIVING OVER
PR/USVI OVERNIGHT AND REDUCED SHOWERS TO BARELY NOTICABLE ON
RADAR. MIMIC-TPW FROM CIMMS SUGGESTS THE AIR IS NOT QUITE AS DRY
AS GFS OR NESDIS TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER INDICATE. DO NOT HAVE
SOUNDER DATA OR RAOBS TO CONFIRM WHICH IS MORE CORRECT BUT
DIFFERENCES ARE NOT ENOUGH TO ADJUST PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
VERY MUCH. BELIEVE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER OVER WESTERN
PR AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE IS THE BEST WE CAN HOPE FOR
TODAY.

LATEST AREA OF SAHARAN AIR IS NEARLY CO-LOCATED WITH MOISTURE IN
THE NEXT APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE JUST EAST OF LESSER ANTILLES.
THE MOISTURE WILL BEGIN ARRIVING LATE TONIGHT AND REACH PEAK
VALUES OVER LOCAL AREA DURING THE DAY ON THU. THE SAHARAN AIR
MIGHT PREVENT MUCH RAIN AGAIN OVER EASTERN PR/USVI BUT INCREASED
SHOWERS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY FOR NORTHWEST PR BY AFTERNOON. 00Z GFS
ALSO SHOWS A BROADER COVERAGE FOR THE MOISTURE RELATIVE TO NAM
WHILE ECMWF IS INBETWEEN THEM. IT HAS CAUSED GFS MOS PROBABILITY
OF RAIN TO BE MUCH HIGHER THAN IT IS FROM NAM FOR SAN JUAN...BUT
WITH THE PRESENCE OF SAHARAN AIR HAVE LEANED TOWARDS LOWER
CHANCES. A TROPICAL WAVE WITH BETTER MOISTURE WITHOUT SAHARAN AIR
APPEARS LIKELY FOR MON/TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HAZE DUE TO SAHARAN DUST
EXPECTED BUT VSBY WILL REMAIN P6SM. SHRA/-TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
NEAR TJMZ AND TJBQ AFTER 17Z...WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE DURING SHRA.
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 15-20 KT WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS BETWEEN 14-21Z.

&&

.MARINE...TRADE WINDS TO MAINLY REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEK
AS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC RIDGE PERSISTS ALONG 30N. IT WILL WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY BY SAT. GWW MODEL STILL INDICATES WAVES APPROACHING 7
FEET NORTHEAST OF BVI BY THU MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A BRIEF
INCREASE IN TRADES NEAR LEEWARDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 89 77 / 20 40 50 30
STT 90 79 88 78 / 20 50 50 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Jul 16, 2015 4:00:03 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Jul 16, 2015 4:00:03 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
405 AM AST THU JUL 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THRU EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS
SKIMMING BY PR/USVI COASTAL WATERS WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
17N THIS MORNING. TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CURRENTLY
CENTERED JUST NORTHEAST OF LEEWARDS IS CONTRIBUTING TO SHEAR OVER
THE TOP OF THE WAVE AND HELPING SUPPRESS ITS DEVELOPMENT BEYOND
ITS CURRENT STRENGTH...AT LEAST FOR TODAY. SOME OF THE STORMS ARE
QUITE STRONG...MAINLY FARTHER INTO CARIBBEAN AND AM PRETTY
CONFIDENT THIS WAVE WILL NOT IMPACT THE ISLANDS AT ALL. SAHARAN
AIR IS ON THE NORTH AND EAST FLANK OF THE WAVE AS IT IS MOVING
FASTER THAN THE SAHARAN AIR. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE ISLANDS
TODAY WILL BE NO MORE THAN SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER OVER WESTERN PR AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OR LESS ELSEWHERE.
AFTER SAT IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL GET A BREAK FROM SAHARAN DUST
UNTIL AT LEAST TUE/WED.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL ARRIVE ON MON THOUGH MOST OF THE
MOISTURE WILL FOLLOW THAT NIGHT AND INTO TUE. WHILE IT WOULD BE
MOVING QUICKLY IT MAY BE OUR BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
IN QUITE AWHILE.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. CLOUDINESS AND
SHRA ACTIVITY INCREASING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS THRU THIS
EVENING DUE TO TROPICAL WAVE PASSING ACROSS THE FLYING AREA. BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN PASSING SHRA/TSRA THRU THU
AFTERNOON...IMPACTING MAINLY WESTERN PR TERMINALS AND OVER CARIBBEAN
WATERS/MONA PASSAGE. VCTS POSSIBLE NEAR ISX/KPK THRU AT LEAST 16Z.
LOW LEVEL EAST WINDS BETWEEN 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KT.

&&

.MARINE...TROPICAL WAVE WILL KICK WINDS UP A LITTLE IN CARIBBEAN
TODAY...ENOUGH TO PUSH SEAS TO 7 FEET FOR SOME AREAS SOUTH OF THE
ISLANDS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CAUSE WINDS/SEAS TO BE BRIEFLY HIGHER.
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS PASSING NEAR ST. KITTS ATTM TO MOVE INTO
SOUTH PART OF AMZ732 LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 91 79 / 0 10 20 10
STT 89 79 88 78 / 20 10 20 10

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Jul 17, 2015 3:53:52 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Jul 17, 2015 3:53:52 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
329 AM AST FRI JUL 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL WAVE IN CARIBBEAN HAS MOVED INTO CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AND TRAILING THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA.
DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO AREA WITH A RIDGE AT AND BELOW 700 MB
THOUGH THE SAHARAN AIR IS LOSING ITS GRIP ON THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

VERY DRY AIR WILL STICK WITH US THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOW
CHANCES OF RAINFALL. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE TO APPROACH IS
CURRENTLY NEAR 50W BUT MOISTURE IS TRAILING WELL BEHIND IN THE
CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WHERE ANOTHER WAVE IS NEAR 35W-40W.
MODELS SHOW THESE WAVES AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE HIGHLY FRAGMENTED
AS THEY INTERACT WITH THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
MEANDERING NORTH OF THE LEEWARDS. IT WILL CAUSE WESTERLY WINDS
ALOFT TO PREVENT THE WAVES FROM DEVELOPING FURTHER. 00Z GFS IS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN IN PUSHING THE WAVES
TOWARDS PR/USVI AND ITS TIMING IS NOW SIMILAR TO 12Z AND 00Z
ECWMF. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH DELAY ARRIVAL OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
UNTIL TUE WHILE IT IS DOUBTFUL WHETHER ANY WAVE AT ANY LEVEL WILL
ARRIVE THAT COULD ENHANCE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THRU
THE FCST PERIOD. HAZY SKIES BUT VSBY P6SM...FALSE OVC CIGS AT
IST/ISX DUE TO SAHARAN DUST. ISOLATED SHRA POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN
PR BETWEEN 17Z-21Z...COULD LEAD TO BRIEF MVFR CONDS AT JMZ AND MTN
TOP OBSCD. EAST WINDS BLO FL200 AT 10-20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT
SFC IN SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFTER 14Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SOME CONCERN OVER EXTREMELY DRY AIR MOVING ACROSS
THE ISLANDS TODAY. IT WILL ONLY BE 2 KFT OFF THE SURFACE OR SO BUT
THERE IS ONLY LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR IT TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. SOME
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY REACH 40 PERCENT RH BUT WINDS WILL NOT REACH
CRITICAL VALUES. WILL ISSUE RFD STATEMENT TO ADDRESS THIS. WINDS
WILL BE TOO WEAK TO PREVENT SEA BREEZES.

&&

.MARINE...LITTLE ADJUSTMENTS MADE THOUGH WINDS AND SEAS TO LAY
DOWN SOMEWHAT THE REST OF THIS WEEK. SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS 25N-30N
TO WEAKEN A LITTLE AND REMAIN WEAK WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 90 78 / 20 10 10 20
STT 90 79 89 78 / 20 10 10 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Jul 18, 2015 5:20:57 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Jul 18, 2015 5:20:57 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
537 AM AST SAT JUL 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS WILL MEANDER AND
WEAKEN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS UPPER
RIDGE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES BUILDS THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE...A SHORT WAVE TROF ASSOCIATED TO THE TUTT WILL PASS
OVER THE MONA PASSAGE AND NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...DRY MID LEVELS AND LOW LEVEL TRADE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. A WEAK WEST MOVING INDUCED SURFACE TROF
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD ENHANCE AFTERNOON CONVECTION
TODAY. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY LATE
MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED
OVERNIGHT WITH VERY LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. HAZE DUE TO SAHARAN DUST WILL CLEAR TODAY. HOWEVER...DRY MID
LEVELS AND BELOW NORMAL PWAT VALUES WILL MAINTAIN FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS THRU EARLY MONDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LIMITED
AFTERNOON SHALLOW CONVECTION OVER SECTIONS OF WESTERN PR AND THE
MONA PASSAGE. UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THRU EARLY IN
THE FCST PERIOD. FROM TUE-THU...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE DUE TO THE
PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...BRINGING BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN
BY NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SAHARAN DUST LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION AND APPARENTLY
STILL GIVING SENSORS AT TIST/TISX FALSE CIGS...BELIEVE CONDS TO
IMPRV WI DAYLIGHT. VFR CONT ALL TAF SITES THO SHRA WL PASS MAINLY
THRU ATLANTIC WATERS TDY AND PSBL SHRA/TSRA SW PR IN AFT. MAYBE AN
OBSCD MTN OR TWO. WINDS BLW FL150 ENE 12-20 KT BCMG E TONITE-SUN.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST
BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...HIGHER SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND
NORTHWEST COASTS OF PUERTO RICO. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS
FORECAST TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY TUESDAY...THIS WILL
INCREASE THE WINDS ACROSS THE ANEGADA PASSAGE TO THE OFFSHORE
CARIBBEAN WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 89 79 / 20 10 10 20
STT 89 78 89 78 / 20 10 10 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Jul 19, 2015 4:09:54 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Jul 19, 2015 4:09:54 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
520 AM AST SUN JUL 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY MID LEVELS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THRU LATE
MONDAY. UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL SINK FARTHER
SOUTH TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA MAINTAINING TROUGH PATTERN FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK AS SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES ERODES SLOWLY THRU MONDAY EVENING. MOISTURE INCREASES ON
TUESDAY ACROSS THE ISLANDS DUE TO A TROPICAL WAVE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE ISLANDS AS PASSING SHOWERS MOVED OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND THE EASTERN HALF OF PR. HOWEVER...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE JUST
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. AT LEAST THRU LATE MONDAY...EXPECT
MAINLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
WESTERN PR IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND BRIEF ISOLATED PASSING
SHOWERS DURING THE NIGHT PERIOD. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE FORECAST
TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON TUESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY THRU THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AT THIS TIME...THE WAVE ON TUESDAY IS EXPECTED
TO PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS CREATING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS THRU THE DAY AND TRIGGERING
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF
PR.

&&

.AVIATION...QUITE A FEW SHRA SHOWING ON RADAR AND IMPLIED BY
SATELLITE FM PR EWD THRU LEEWARDS. BUT VRY FEW SHRA ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LWR THAN VFR CONDS AND THOSE WL BE BRF...WL AMD IF NEEDED.
WIND MON E-ESE 12-21 KT THRU MON.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TRADES FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. INCREASING BY MID WEEK DUE TO WIND SURGE BEHIND
NEXT TROPICAL WAVE. SEAS GENERALLY BELOW 4 FEET. HOWEVER...LOCAL
SEA BREEZE WILL INCREASE WINDS BETWEEN 15-20 KT ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS OF PR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 88 79 / 30 20 20 40
STT 89 78 89 79 / 40 20 20 40

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Jul 20, 2015 4:11:17 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Jul 20, 2015 4:11:17 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
543 AM AST MON JUL 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS... TUTT EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC
ACROSS HISPANIOLA...WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WHILE
SHIFTING SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL
HELP TO MAINTAIN A PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ALOFT TODAY.

LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA... AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. A TUTT INDUCED LOW LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS NOW
CROSSING THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED LIMITED
AREAS OF MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THIS TROUGH.

A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS CURRENTLY NEAR 55 WEST WILL CONTINUE
WESTWARD AND REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES BY EARLY TUESDAY. RECENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY SO FAR ALSO SUGGESTS ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE
ACCOMPANYING THIS WAVE...BUT SO FAR CONVECTION WITH THE WAVE HAS
BEEN LIMITED AS IT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DOMINANT SAHARAN AIR
LAYER.

&&

.DISCUSSION... THE PROXIMITY OF THE TUTT WILL AID IN ENHANCING
PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS LOCAL WATERS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AS
THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THEREAFTER...VARIABLY
CLOUDY SKIES BUT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST INTERIOR AND
NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO. LESSER SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
EXPERIENCED OVER THE U.S.VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE REST OF THE
DAY.

THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREAS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH A GRADUALLY DECREASE IN
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND CLOUDINESS BY LATE THURSDAY AND THE REST OF
THE WEEK AS DRIER SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL AGAIN SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION TO LIMIT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. MEANWHILE THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REESTABLISH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN ONCE AGAIN TO MAINTAIN THE MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
TRADE WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT TJSJ...TISX...TIST AS WELL AS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FLYING
AREA UNTIL AT LEAST 20/14Z. AFTER 20/16Z SHRA O EVEN TSRA WILL
AFFECT TJMZ AND TJBQ WITH PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS
AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY IN THE
MORNING BUT INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS AND
LOCAL SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS IN SOME AREAS AFTER 20/14Z.

&&

.MARINE....OVERALL SEAS WERE 3 FEET OR LESS OVERNIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO BE LESS THAN 5 FEET TODAY WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS
ACROSSTHE REGIONAL WATERS. EXPECT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS AND
SEAS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS
FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN
PUERTO RICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 79 88 80 / 20 50 50 40
STT 90 80 89 80 / 20 50 50 40

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Jul 21, 2015 4:07:10 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Jul 21, 2015 4:07:10 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
539 AM AST TUE JUL 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS... TUTT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND INTO THE EAST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AT
LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. 500 MILLIBAR RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK TO MAINTAIN DRY MID
LEVEL CONDITIONS AND LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS TODAY. TROPICAL WAVE AXIS
NOW MOVING ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WAVE NOW MOVING CROSSING THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND REACHING EASTERN PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING. THE TRAILING
EDGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AND A MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE IS THEN
EXPECTED TO FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS NAAPS AEROSOL AND SAHARAN AIR
LAYER PRODUCT...ALL SUGGEST THAT THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER AND SUSPENDED DUST PARTICULATES WHICH
WAS NOW SPREAD ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS AND
PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A BREAK IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND EASTERN PR BY LATE MORNING AS THE WAVE CROSSES THE
AREA. DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS...DAYTIME
HEATING AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT...ALONG WITH INSTABILITY
DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE TUTT...WILL LEAD TO SOME ENHANCED
CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR...WEST AND NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THE OVERALL CONVECTION HOWEVER IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD...DUE TO MID LEVEL DRYING AND THE PRESENCE
OF SAHARAN DUST WHICH IS ALREADY MIXED IN AND ACCOMPANYING THE
TROPICAL WAVE. THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
STEER TOWARDS THE WEST AND NORTHWEST COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO RICO
UNDER THE PREVAILING EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW. SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN ISOLATED AREAS AS WELL AS DANGEROUS LIGHTNING
STRIKES WITH THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AND DECREASING LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTEDON FRIDAY...WITH ANOTHER TUTT INDUCED LOW LEVEL TROUGH
FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL AGAIN INCREASE THE
CHANCE FOR EARLY MORNING AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION EACH DAY. HOWEVER... NO WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
TIST...TISX AND TJSJ UNTIL 21/14Z IN PASSING SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS THIS MORNING.
THIS MOISTURE WILL CREATE PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON AFFECTING TJMZ AND TJBQ.
ESE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEE BREEZE VARIATIONS EXPECTED TILL
21/22Z...DECREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT. GUSTY
NEAR SHRA/ISOLD TSRA TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...RECENT BUOY DATA SUGGESTS SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS AND
AND WINDS 10-15 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
TRADE WINDS TO 15-20 KNOTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS
TODAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS...GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 80 91 79 / 40 30 40 30
STT 89 81 89 80 / 50 40 40 40

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Jul 22, 2015 4:13:05 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Jul 22, 2015 4:13:05 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
514 AM AST WED JUL 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINGERING
MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND
WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF ANOTHER TROPICAL JUST ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. THE TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT...INDUCING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON...TONIGHT AND LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. GFS
COMPUTER GUIDANCE...SUGGESTS PWAT VALUES INCREASING STEADY FROM
AROUND 1.7 INCHES THIS MORNING TO MORE THAN 2.0 INCHES THIS
AFTERNOON...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...DECREASING BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WELL BELOW 2.O INCHES.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO TODAY. FOR THIS AFTERNOON THE MODELS SUGGEST DEEPER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE PREVAILING
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. FAIR AND STABLE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND
UNDER BUILDING RIDGE AND LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR ACROSS PR/USVI TERMINALS THRU WED MORNING.
BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND USVI TERMINAL AS
PASSING SHRA EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THRU WED MORNING. FALSE CIGS AT
IST/ISX DUE TO SAHARAN DUST EARLY IN THE PERIOD. BETWEEN 16Z-
22Z...LOCALLY INDUCED SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN PR IMPACTING MAINLY TJBQ/TJMZ. THE 22/00Z TJSJ UPPER AIR
SOUNDING INDICATED LOW LEVEL E TO ESE WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE RELATIVELY CALM TO SLIGHTLY
CHOPPY...WITH WAVES UP TO 5 FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN
WATERS...UP TO 4 FEET ELSEWHERE...AND WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 15
KNOTS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 79 91 79 / 40 30 30 30
STT 89 82 90 79 / 40 40 40 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Jul 23, 2015 4:22:49 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Jul 23, 2015 4:22:49 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
508 AM AST THU JUL 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW WEST NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL
DRIFT WESTWARD WHILE WEAKEN THRU SATURDAY. RIDGE PATTERN WILL THEN
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. A SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY AND HAZY SKIES PREVAILED OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY THIS MORNING. DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ONLY LIGHT
ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS MOVING WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. NOT SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD
WELL AWAY FROM THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY. THE LIMITED MOISTURE LEFT
BEHIND THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DIURNAL HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS TO PRODUCE FEW SHOWERS AND A
COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO. NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS. A GENERALLY FAIR AND STABLE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL THEN PREVAIL THURSDAY EVENING THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK
UNDER BUILDING RIDGE AND LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THEREFORE...
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES...
WITH LIGHT EARLY MORNING PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS USVI AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...FOLLOWED BY A FEW LOCALLY INDUCED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND. SAHARAN DUST WILL ALSO SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA. UNDER AN EAST SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW...
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHERN
COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO RICO. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT NOT SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER EVENT IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION IN THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE TAF SITES THRU THE
FORECAST PERIOD. FEW -SHRA OVR COASTAL WATERS N AND S OF PR AN EN
ROUTE BTW ERN AND U.S.V.I. SCT LYS 020...050...AND SCT-BKN250 MAINLY
SE OF PR AND OVR VIRGIN ISLANDS. SE WNDS BLO FL200 BCMG SSW ABV UP
TO FL400. SFC WND LGT AND VRB TO CALM BCMG FM E AST 10 -15 KTS AFT
23/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 80 91 79 / 20 20 20 20
STT 90 81 90 79 / 30 20 20 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Jul 24, 2015 4:18:54 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Jul 24, 2015 4:18:54 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTEDD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
532 AM AST FRI JUL 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TUTT LOW WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC THROUGH THE
WEEKEND... AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
TODAY AND HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE TUTT LOW IS TO THEN CUT
OFF AND SHIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN BY EARLY
TUESDAY... REACHING HISPANIOLA BY WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE PATTERN
ALOFT WILL THEN ERODE AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC TO MAINTAIN MODERATE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AN INDUCED LOW
LEVEL TROUGH AND A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING AN
EASTERLY WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT...WITH NO RAINFALL OBSERVED OR DETECTED BY THE DOPPLER
WEATHER RADAR OVER LAND. PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TODAY.
A DRIER AIR MASS AND STABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE
AND SHOULD DOMINATE THE WEATHER CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER
DURING THE AFTERNOON...SOME LOCALLY AND DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWERS
MAY FORM MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE WEST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. OVERALL THE SAHARAN
AIR LAYER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THIS WILL LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION AS AREAS OF SUSPENDED SAHARAN
DUST PARTICULATES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION.

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THE INDUCED LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND MOISTURE
SURGE SHOULD TRANSPORT FRAGMENTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF BRIEF EARLY MORNING SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL HOWEVER BE OF SHORT DURATION
WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION....VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE HAZY...HOWEVER THE
VISIBILITIES WILL BE P6SM. AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY FORM ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PR TO AFFECT TJBQ...CLEARING AFTER SUNSET.
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS AFTER 24/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...RECENT BUOY DATA SUGGESTED SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS AND WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST DURING THE REST OF THE DAY...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 90 79 / 20 20 20 10
STT 89 79 89 79 / 20 30 30 20

&&

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Jul 25, 2015 4:37:34 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Jul 25, 2015 4:37:34 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
408 AM AST SAT JUL 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS REMAIN THE RULE ACROSS
THE REGION THOUGH PATCHES OF SOMEWHAT HIGHER MOISTURE WILL PASS
THROUGH. ONE SUCH PATCH IS EVIDENT EARLY THIS MORNING AND RADAR
INDICATES SCATTERED...BUT BRIEF...SHOWERS OVER USVI. GFS SHOWS THE
MOISTURE EXITING WESTERN PR IN AFTERNOON BUT ENOUGH MIGHT LINGER
TO PRODUCE SHOWERS FOR THE WEST AND MODEL SOUNDINGS CERTAINLY SHOW
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME THUNDER. THIS MOISTURE IS ON THE
DOWNWIND SIDE OF A TROPICAL WAVE. THE WAVE AXIS WILL PASS PR
DURING AFTERNOON COINCIDENT WITH THE DRIER AIR. BETTER MOISTURE IS
CURRENTLY JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG WITH ANOTHER...
WEAKER...TROPICAL WAVE. THIS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST AND BRUSH
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY...BUT MAINLY IN THE CARIBBEAN. NO
OTHER SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE ISLANDS
DURING THIS NEXT WEEK. LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY MUCH OF THE TIME
ALSO WILL BE MORE SAHARAN AIR...MOST EVIDENT IN MODEL SOUNDINGS
GENERALLY JUST ABOVE 850 MB AND BY SOMEWHAT STRONGER THAN NORMAL
WINDS NEAR THAT LEVEL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONT ACRS PR/USVI THRU WEEKEND XCPT OUTSIDE CHC
BRF MVFR AND OBSCD MTNS IN SHRA/TSRA BOTH AFT FOR CENTRAL/WESTERN
PR. WIND BLW FL100 E 12-21 KT BCMG SE AT TIMES TONITE THEN INCR
16-28 KT SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN
NEAR 25N THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COLUMBIAN
COAST AND A COUPLE OF TROPICAL WAVES PASSING BY WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...PARTICULARLY ON
SUNDAY. WINDS AND RESULTANT SEAS WILL INCREASE ACCORDINGLY AND IT
MIGHT REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BY SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 78 91 80 / 30 10 20 10
STT 89 80 89 80 / 30 20 20 10

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Jul 27, 2015 4:13:03 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Jul 27, 2015 4:13:03 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
455 AM AST MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TUTT WILL
RELOCATE NEAR PUERTO RICO FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A SAHARAN
AIR LAYER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT LEAST UNTIL THURSDAY. A
TROPICAL WAVE WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED BY
THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. ONCE AGAIN...ANOTHER SAHARAN AIR LAYER
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION....MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH HAZE AND PASSING CLOUDS
PREVAILED OVERNIGHT. SOME SHOWERS MOVED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
BUT NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE DETECTED OVER LAND.

STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL THURSDAY DUE TO THE PRESENCE
OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION AT LEAST
UNTIL TUESDAY. ALSO...A SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL PERSIST AT LEAST
UNTIL THURSDAY...TO RESULT IN DRY AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS
THRU MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. THEREFORE...DRY AIR AND TRADE WIND CAP
WILL LIMIT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...MOSTLY
CONFINED EACH AFTERNOON OVER SECTIONS OF WESTERN PR AND A FEW
SPRINKLES OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND SECTIONS OF EASTERN PR
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE CWA BY THURSDAY. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAVE THE BULK OF TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS. A TUTT LOW IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. THE INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED TO THE TUTT LOW AND THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE ENOUGH TO ENHANCE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THE AMOUNT OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
DEPEND ON THE POSITION OF THE TUTT LOW WHICH COULD FAVOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN INDUCE SURFACE TROUGH. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN
QUICKLY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS SAL MOVES OVER THE REGION AND
HOLDS THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...VCSH/VCTS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ AFTER 27/17Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...MARINERS CAN EXPECT SEAS BETWEEN 2 AND 5 FEET WITH
OCCASIONAL SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS BELOW 18 KNOTS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE UP TO 20 KNOTS LATE IN THE MORNING HOURS AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...THE CARIBBEAN OFFSHORE AND COASTAL
WATERS AND THE MONA PASSAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 79 90 80 / 20 10 20 10
STT 90 80 90 78 / 20 20 20 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Jul 28, 2015 4:22:20 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Jul 28, 2015 4:22:20 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
533 AM AST TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUED IN PLACE ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC AND WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN AT LEAST THROUGH
TUESDAY WHEN IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE LOCAL
REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TUTT WILL RELOCATE NEAR PUERTO RICO BY
MID WEEK. A SAHARAN AIR LAYER WITH SUSPENDED DUST PARTICLES IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE REGION AT LEAST UNTIL THURSDAY. A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE IS
FORECAST TO ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY MID WEEK...THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER SAHARAN AIR LAYER
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF PUERTO
RICO TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF AND THE US
VIRGIN ISLANDS PREVAILED OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE...AND RADAR IMAGERY
OBSERVED HAZY WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH PASSING SHOWERS MAINLY OVER
THE LOCAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. SOME SHOWERS AFFECTED THE WINDWARD
SECTIONS BUT THE ACTIVITY WAS BRIEF AND NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WERE DETECTED OVER LAND.

HAZY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LEAST UNTIL
WEDNESDAY AS A SAHARAN AIR LAYER AND A MID LEVEL RIDGE ARE
EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WHEN A TUTT LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OF TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE ISLAND OF PUERTO RICO. AS A RESULT DIFFLUENCE ALOFT COMBINED
WITH THE MOISTURE OF AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE WILL INCREASE
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION.
HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE BULK OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS...OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS.
THE AMOUNT OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DEPEND ON THE
POSITION OF THE TUTT LOW WHICH COULD FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
INDUCE SURFACE TROUGH. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN QUICKLY LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AS SAL MOVES OVER THE REGION AND HOLDS THRU THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR XPCTD THRU WED XCP MVFR IN SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA W TO
WCNTRL PR BOTH AFT...FEW OBSCD MTNS. ISOLD SHRA ELSEWHERE SHUD NOT
LWR CONDS. WIND BLW FL100 ESE 16-32 KT BCMG E 16-24 KT IN AFT THEN
ENE 12-20 KT TUE NITE-WED.

&&

.MARINE....MARINERS CAN EXPECT SEAS BETWEEN 2 AND 5 FEET WITH
OCCASIONAL SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS BELOW 18 KNOTS. EXCEPT FOR
THE CARIBBEAN OFFSHORE WATERS AND MONA PASSAGE WERE THEY CAN
EXPECT SEAS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 FEET WITH OCCASIONAL SEAS UP TO 8
FEET. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE UP TO 20 KNOTS LATE IN THE
MORNING HOURS AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TODAY...MAINLY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO
RICO. REFER TO THE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS
ABOUT THE CURRENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 91 79 / 10 20 20 10
STT 90 79 90 79 / 20 20 30 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Jul 29, 2015 4:15:03 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Jul 29, 2015 4:15:03 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
532 AM AST WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN BY TODAY. IT IS TO THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHILE TRANSPORTING A SURGE OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE. TUTT LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRESS OVER THE REGION
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. IN GENERAL...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE
LOCAL REGION OVERNIGHT. FOR TODAY...DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATES THE REGION WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR
AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELITE IMAGES SHOWS WELL DEFINED TUTT LOW
NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRESS
ACROSS THE REGION NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE IN A
FAVORABLE AREA FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY. IN
ADDITION...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE MAINLY FRIDAY...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS THE REGION EXPECTED TO REACH
AROUND 2.10 INCHES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER
AREA OF DRY AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. BY MONDAY...ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. VCSH/VCTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS TJMZ
AND TJBQ AFTER 29/17Z. SUSPENDED SAHARAN DUST WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION...BUT VISIBILITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN P6SM. EAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL AROUND 15 KTS FM SFC TO FL100.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. 5 FEET
MAINLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS...ELSEWHERE 4 FEET
OR LESS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TODAY...MAINLY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO
RICO. REFER TO THE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS
ABOUT THE CURRENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 78 89 78 / 20 10 30 20
STT 90 79 89 79 / 20 30 30 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Jul 30, 2015 4:12:20 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Jul 30, 2015 4:12:20 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
528 AM AST THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TODAY AND FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE REGION NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS. BEST
ACTIVITY WAS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING
EDGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE.
THIS TROPICAL WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TODAY AND FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA....MAINLY ON FRIDAY...WHEN LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER
PRODUCTS CONTINUED TO SUGGEST PWAT VALUES REACHING 2.00 INCHES OR
SO BY FRIDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A DRY AIR MASS WILL THEN
MOVE IN LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. FOR MONDAY...ANOTHER INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS THEN EXPECTED AS ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. HOWEVER VCSH EXPECTED ACROSS TNCM/TKPK AND ACROSS TIST/
TISX THIS MORNING. ISOLD TSRA ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJMZ AFTER
17Z. LOW LVL EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN
WATERS AND LOCAL PASSAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 90 79 / 20 20 40 40
STT 90 79 87 79 / 30 30 30 30

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Puerto Rico Weather

Post by cycloneye on Jul 15, 2015 4:33:04 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Jul 16, 2015 4:00:03 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Jul 17, 2015 3:53:52 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Jul 18, 2015 5:20:57 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Jul 19, 2015 4:09:54 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Jul 20, 2015 4:11:17 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Jul 21, 2015 4:07:10 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Jul 22, 2015 4:13:05 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Jul 23, 2015 4:22:49 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Jul 24, 2015 4:18:54 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Jul 25, 2015 4:37:34 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Jul 27, 2015 4:13:03 GMT -6

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