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cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Jul 31, 2015 4:18:16 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Jul 31, 2015 4:18:16 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
522 AM AST FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SURGE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. A DRY AIR MASS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL AFFECT THE REGION
MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR IMAGES WERE SHOWING AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS IN
RESPONSE TO A SURGE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.
PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL BECOME MORE FREQUENT THIS AFTERNOON...AS
MOISTURE COMBINE WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

FOR TONIGHT...A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL ENCOMPASS THE
REGION...LIMITING SIGNIFICANTLY THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS AREA OF DRY AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THE WHOLE
WEEKEND. IS NOT UNTIL MONDAY FORECAST MODELS INDICATED ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION. THEREFORE...AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA AND TSRA HAVE INCREASE ACROSS THE FLYING AREA.
AS A RESULT...BRIEF MVFR CIGS IN PASSING SHRA POSSIBLE THRU THIS
AFTERNOON. TSRA WILL FORM OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND INTERIOR PR
BETWEEN 17-22Z...WITH POSSIBLY MVFR/IFR CONDS AT TJMZ AND TJBQ. EAST
WINDS AT 15-20 KT WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. STABLE
CONDS WILL RETURN TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS MOST COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 90 79 / 40 40 20 20
STT 89 79 89 78 / 30 30 20 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Aug 1, 2015 4:16:54 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Aug 1, 2015 4:16:54 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
518 AM AST SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL CROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON MONDAY. DRY
AND STABLE AIR RETURNS ON TUESDAY. WET TRADES WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS
THE REGION SINCE MIDNIGHT. CONCENTRATIONS OF SAHARAN DUST HAVE
INCREASED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN REGION RESULTING IN HAZY
SKIES AND SOMEWHAT REDUCED VISIBILITIES ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
USVI. THIS DRY AND DUSTY AIR MASS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEKEND.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS INDICATED EARLY
THIS MORNING A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 55 WEST. THIS WAVE IS MOVING
RELATIVELY FAST ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND ITS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON MONDAY MORNING. CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS LIMITED AT THIS TIME...MAINLY DUE TO
INTRUSION OF SAHARAN AIR IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT PR/USVI ON MONDAY...HOWEVER
THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THIS WAVE...AROUND 20 KT...WILL LIMIT THE
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. DRY AND DUSTY AIR MASS IS EXPECTED IN THE
WAKE OF THE WAVE. THE DRY AND STABLE AIR WILL SPREAD OVER USVI/PR
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...LIMITING ONCE AGAIN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY.
TRADE WINDS WILL BRING PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
LOCAL REGION FROM MIDWEEK TO THE END OF NEXT WEEK. SO...ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL ADVECT OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS THE SECOND
PART OF NEXT WEEK. BUT OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
ARE FORECAST THROUGH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS AT ALL TAF SITES WITH EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15
KTS AND HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS OF 10-20 KT AND SEAS OF 4-6 FEET ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS THE COASTAL WATERS
OF WESTERN PR WHERE SEAS OF 2-4 FEET CAN BE ANTICIPATED. THEREFORE...
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION DUE TO SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND
WINDS UP TO 20 KT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 89 80 / 10 20 20 40
STT 90 78 89 81 / 10 20 20 50

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Aug 3, 2015 4:14:41 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Aug 3, 2015 4:14:41 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
554 AM AST MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE EAST AND HOLD THROUGH MID WEEK. RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT WILL
THEN ERODE LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND INTO THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN
AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNT WERE LESS THAN HALF INCH.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO ERODE UNDER BUILDING RIDGE.
RIDGE ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY WITH A GENERALLY
FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH
LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES AS
WELL AS LOCALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
EACH DAY. HAZY SKIES EXPECTED TODAY AND TUESDAY UNDER SAL.

AS RIDGE ALOFT ERODES AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ESTABLISHES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RECOVER SOMEWHAT BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THEREFORE...A SHIFT TO A WETTER PATTERN COULD BE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE LOCAL
TERMINALS. BRIEF SHRA/TSRA ARE MOVING CLOSE TO TJPS AND ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE MOVING TO THE WEST...AFFECTING TJPS THROUGH 03/10Z AND
POSSIBLY CAUSING SOME VCSH AT TJMZ. THINGS SHOULD QUIET DOWN AFTER
03/12Z LEAVING ONLY A FEW CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF BRIEF
SHOWERS THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST AT 5-10KT THROUGH
03/13Z THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 15KT AND GUSTY...STILL FROM THE
EAST BUT WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.FIRE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO ERODE UNDER BUILDING
RIDGE. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 45-50 PERCENT AND WINDS BETWEEN
15 AND 20 MPH EXPECTED TODAY. SEE THE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR
MORE DETAILS.

&&

.MARINE...CHOPPY SEAS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND
WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 90 79 / 30 30 30 20
STT 90 79 90 78 / 20 30 30 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Aug 4, 2015 4:16:53 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Aug 4, 2015 4:16:53 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
525 AM AST TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT WILL THEN
ERODE LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND INTO THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES NOTED ACROSS
WINDWARD AREAS. COASTAL TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

UNDER LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT...
CONTINUE TO EXPECT A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH
LOCALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. SOME
HAZINESS IS ALSO EXPECTED TODAY UNDER A WEAK SAL.

AS RIDGE ALOFT ERODES AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ESTABLISHES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW MOISTURE IS EXPECTED. IN FACT...LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTED PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH A TROPICAL WAVE PASSAGE ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE OF TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD
AREAS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
WEDNESDAY THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONLY VERY BRIEF -SHRA ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH 04/18Z. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA AROUND TJMZ
AFTER 04/18Z. WINDS FROM THE EAST AT 15-20KT AND GUSTY AFTER
04/13Z...DIMINISHING AFTER 04/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS EXPECTED TODAY.
SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS
MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS 4-6 FEET
DECREASING TO 3-5 FEET IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 91 80 / 10 20 20 20
STT 92 78 91 78 / 10 20 20 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Aug 5, 2015 4:07:31 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Aug 5, 2015 4:07:31 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
546 AM AST WED AUG 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE LOCAL AREA TODAY
AND EARLY THURSDAY. THEN AN UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA...STAYING JUST NORTH
NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA FOR SEVERAL DAYS. AT THE SURFACE...A
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN IS STARTS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHEAST ATLANTIC WHILE A SURFACE LOW EXITS THE EAST COAST OF THE
US ON SATURDAY...THEN BOTH REMAINING IN PLACE UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED THROUGH THE NIGHT
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. SOME OF THE SHOWERS BRIEFLY AFFECTED THE
USVI AS WELL AS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO. THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING OVERNIGHT AND IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO ALMOST 2 INCHES ACROSS WESTERN PR IN
THE AFTERNOON...WHILE THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI
WILL HAVE AN INCREASE UP TO 1.7 INCHES OR SO. THIS MAY RESULT IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN PR. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS WILL
BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...THIS PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL
JUST BE INCREASING THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO CLOSE TO
NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AS THE VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT
RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS OTHER THAN AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR. BUT FOR
THE EASTERN HALF OF PR AND THE USVI...ONLY BRIEF SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IT IS NOT
UNTIL REALLY LATE NEXT WEEK...THAT WE SEE A GOOD INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. HAVING SAID THAT...IT IS TOO FAR IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD SO THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AND
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VCSH ACROSS THE TIST/TISX/TJSJ/TJBQ UNTIL MID MORNING
WITH SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS
OF PR AFTER 05/16Z...CAUSING VCSH/VCTS ACROSS TJBQ AND TJMZ WITH
POSSIBLE SHRA/TSRA AT TJMZ AFTER 05/17Z. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
EAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY CALM STARTING THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IN THE MORNING HOURS SEAS WILL BE UP TO 6
FEET ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND THE MONA
PASSAGE. THEN IN THE AFTERNOON SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 5
FEET AND WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 79 89 79 / 30 20 20 20
STT 89 78 89 78 / 30 20 20 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Aug 6, 2015 4:10:00 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Aug 6, 2015 4:10:00 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
544 AM AST THU AUG 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY...SLOWLY MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC STARTING ON FRIDAY. UPPER
LOW WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN THROUGH THE AREA
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...KEEPING AVAILABLE MOISTURE AT OR BELOW
WHAT IS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED THROUGH THE NIGHT
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. SOME OF THE SHOWERS BRIEFLY AFFECTED THE
USVI AS WELL AS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO. THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE HAS BEEN HOLDING STEADY OVERNIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE SLIGHTLY INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE FROM ABOUT 1.5 INCHES TO ABOUT 1.3
INCHES BY LATE THIS MORNING...HOLDING AT ABOUT 1.3-1.5 INCHES
THROUGH THE DAY...THEN INCREASING SLIGHTLY AGAIN THIS
EVENING...ONCE AGAIN CAUSING BRIEF SHOWERS TONIGHT. EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS TODAY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN PR. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...WESTERN AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PR THIS
AFTERNOON.

FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE
GUIDANCE...WE STILL EXPECT PATCHES OF MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE
LOCAL AREA. THESE PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL JUST BE INCREASING THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR AS THE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY AROUND 1.5-1.8
INCHES. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
OTHER THAN AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF PR. BUT FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF PR AND THE USVI...ONLY
BRIEF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TODAY AND
FRIDAY. SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN AS
MOISTURE INCREASES AT THE TIME OF MAXIMUM HEATING...THERE IS ALSO
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND NO SAHARAN DUST. THIS MAY GIVE WAY TO MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...WITH
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN PR IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTER
THAT IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED BRIEF
SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO
SIGNIFICANT...THERE WILL BE AFTERNOON CONVECTION DUE TO LOCAL
EFFECTS ACROSS WESTERN PR MOST OF THE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONLY BRIEF -SHRA POSSIBLE ACROSS TIST/TISX/TJSJ
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN
PR AND MAY AFFECT TJMZ AND THE VICINITY OF TJBQ AFT 06/17Z. WINDS FROM
THE EAST AT 5-10KT...INCREASING AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS AND GUSTY AFTER 06/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...THE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE TRANQUIL FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SEAS GENERALLY BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FEET AND THE
WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 90 78 / 20 20 20 20
STT 90 79 89 79 / 30 20 20 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Aug 7, 2015 4:20:25 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Aug 7, 2015 4:20:25 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
605 AM AST FRI AUG 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...OVERALL AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR
TODAY AND INTO SATURDAY AS A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE
LOCAL AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN SLOWLY MOVE WEST ON
MONDAY...WHERE IT WILL STAY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC
THOUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TUTT WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH
OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS IT WEAKENS...SOME
INSTABILITY AND SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA...GENERALLY PRODUCING LESS THAN A HALF AN INCH OF
RAIN SINCE MIDNIGHT...BUT THE TOTALS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IF WE ADD
THE TOTAL FROM LAST EVENING. HOWEVER THE RAINFALL HAS GREATLY
DIMINISHED IN THE PAST FEW HOURS.

OVERALL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TODAY...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.75 INCHES. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BE
EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS
OF PR IN THE AFTERNOON. THEN IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...SOME SHOWERS COULD AFFECT EASTERN PR AS THE WEAK WAVE
APPROACHES.

SATURDAY SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT SHOWERY WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER DRIER AIR IS QUICK TO MOVE IN ON SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...DIMINISHING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY EXCEPT FOR
LOCALLY INDUCED SHOWERS. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BUT SO FAR IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. SO IT LOOKS LIKE AFTER THIS
WEEKEND...THINGS WILL SETTLE DOWN SOMEWHAT AND LOOK MORE LIKE IT
HAS BEEN FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...WITH LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY
STARTING ON SUNDAY AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR. CREATING BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MTN TOP OBSCD...IMPACTING MAINLY JMZ AND JBQ. VCSH
POSSIBLE AT JSJ/JPS THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LVL WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM
THE EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST AT 15-20KT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL BE RELATIVELY CALM WITH WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 4
FEET AND WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS. WITH LOCAL BUOYS
CURRENTLY CONFIRMING THE FORECAST. HOWEVER THERE IS A MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS SOME OF THE LOCAL BEACHES IN MAINLAND
PUERTO RICO AND CULEBRA...WHILE THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS LOW
ACROSS THE USVI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 91 79 / 20 30 30 10
STT 89 80 89 79 / 30 30 30 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Aug 8, 2015 4:14:01 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Aug 8, 2015 4:14:01 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
517 AM AST SAT AUG 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC AND INTO THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SLOWLY SHIFTS WEST...
RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT WILL BUILD FROM THE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. A MODERATE EAST SOUTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AN INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
THIS MORNING. TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 48W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
AND CARIBBEAN WATERS...WITH SOME OF THEM REACHING THE USVI AND
THE EAST COASTAL AREA OF PUERTO RICO.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCE/INDUCED
SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS IN THE MORNING...
FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER AND
NORTHWEST OF THE CORDILLERA IN THE AFTERNOON. AS THE TROUGH MOVES
WEST AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT...RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT
WILL BUILD FROM THE EAST...RESULTING IN EROSION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. THEREFORE...UNDER BUILDING RIDGE AND LIMITED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE EXPECT FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY WITH TRADE WIND SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS WELL AS LOCALLY
INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS EACH DAY.

TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 48W WILL REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TUESDAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ALTHOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTED THAT THE BULK OF MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA...PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR TWO INCHES WILL
BRUSH SOUTH AND WEST PUERTO RICO. THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST
PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS THROUGH THE
DAY...AND OVER WEST AND SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON.
FAIR WEATHER WILL THEN PREVAIL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY UNDER LIMITED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS COULD BE EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...DO NOT YET SEE SIGNIFICANT RAIN IN THE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA EN ROUTE FROM THE USVI TO EASTERN PR WILL
AFFECT MAINLY THE VICINITY OF TIST/TISX/TJSJ...EXPECT TEMPO BKN
LAYERS AND SHRA. ALSO...MAX TOPS 30-35 KFT...WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDS
AND MTN TOP OBSCD OVER EASTERN PR TIL 14Z. SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST PR DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...CREATING MVFR AND MTN TOP OBSCD FROM 17Z-21Z. IMPACTING
MAINLY TJBQ/TJMZ. EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 5-15KT BLO FL200...BCMG LGT/VRB
TO NR FL250...THEN FM W AND INCR W/HT ABV.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TRADES AND SEAS OF 2-5 FEET WILL PREVAIL THE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 90 79 / 40 10 10 20
STT 89 79 90 79 / 40 10 10 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Aug 9, 2015 4:19:28 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Aug 9, 2015 4:19:28 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
515 AM AST SUN AUG 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOCAL ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE UNDER TROUGH PATTERN TO
THE WEST AND RIDGE PATTERN TO THE EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE TRADE
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
TROPICAL WAVE...NOW LOCATED NEAR 52W...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WERE OBSERVED DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. OTHER THAN A FEW SPRINKLES OVER WATERS...
NO SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS DETECTED.

UNDER LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECT FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY WITH TRADE WIND SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS WELL AS
LOCALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS EACH DAY. TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 52W
WILL REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTED
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR TWO INCHES ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. FAIR WEATHER WILL THEN PREVAIL THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY UNDER LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. TROPICAL WAVE PASSAGE
EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH LINGERING MOISTURE THROUGH SUNDAY. DO NOT
YET SEE SIGNIFICANT RAIN DURING THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...PSBL MVFR IN SCT SHRA/-TSRA
AT TJMZ/TJBQ BETWEEN 17Z-22Z. WIND BLO FL100 FM SE AT 10-15 KT
BCMG ESE AT 15-22 KT BETWEEN 14Z-23Z. NO SIG OPERATIONAL WX
IMPACTS ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TRADES WITH WEAK RIDGING NORTH OF LOCAL
ISLANDS. SEAS 2-5 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 79 89 79 / 20 20 20 20
STT 92 79 90 79 / 20 20 20 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Aug 10, 2015 4:05:33 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Aug 10, 2015 4:05:33 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
555 AM AST MON AUG 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST...LATE THIS WEEK
ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL DOMINATE THE
AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TROPICAL WAVE NOW AROUND 57 WEST
IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL AREA BY TUESDAY...INCREASING
CLOUDINESS AND THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. PASSING SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS...WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND LIGHT
SHOWERS REACHING ISOLATED AREAS OF THE USVI JUST BEFORE DAY
BREAK. HOWEVER...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER LAND AREAS WERE JUST
TRACE AMOUNTS. FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW...THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS AND THEY COULD
REACH PARTS OF EASTERN PR AND THE USVI...HOWEVER...RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT. MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL
CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. LIMITING THE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN PR DUE DIURNAL EFFECTS AND
AVAILABLE LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE BY LATE TUE/EARLY WED AS TROPICAL WAVE
MOVES OVER THE ISLANDS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES
THAT PWAT VALUES WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES OVER ST. CROIX...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR. DURING THIS
PERIOD...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY TO AFFECT
THESE AREAS AND SPECIALLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THRU AT LEAST FRIDAY...WITH
ISOLATED PASSING TRADE WIND SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING HOURS
ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN PR...AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER
THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS
FORECAST TO AFFECT OUR AREA DURING THE WEEKEND...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR XPCTD XCP IN SOME ISOLD SHRA THRU TUE. FEW OBSCD
WEST PR MTNS IN AFT. WIND BLW FL100 MAINLY E AT 12-20 KT BCMG SE ON
TUE.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FEET...AND WINDS AT
10-15 KNOTS FROM THE EAST WITH HIGHER GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON
DUE TO SEA BREEZES ACROSS THE NORTH AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF
PR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 89 78 / 20 10 20 30
STT 89 79 90 78 / 20 20 20 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Aug 11, 2015 4:32:49 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Aug 11, 2015 4:32:49 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
606 AM AST TUE AUG 11 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN
WATERS TODAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL
BRING PERIODS OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL ESTABLISH CAP ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH
MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE LOW LEVELS AS TRADE WIND SHOWERS AFFECT
THE ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO
ENTER THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE FA. PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE
WATERS...WITH A FEW OF THEM BRUSHING THE NORTHEAST COASTAL
SECTIONS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL OVER LAND WAS NOT SIGNIFICANT. RADAR
AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A DRIER AIR MASS IS STILL
AHEAD OF THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE...THIS DRY AIR MASS
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY THIS MORNING...BUT CLOUDINESS IS
EXPECTED TO FOLLOW QUICKLY BY NOON TODAY...AS TROPICAL WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA AND HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS INDUCED BY UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. BEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WILL BE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS AND ST. CROIX...AND IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAIN RANGES OF PR...BUT SPECIALLY OVER WESTERN PR.

AS MID LEVEL RIDGE ESTABLISHES AFTER THE WAVE PASSAGE ON
WEDNESDAY...CAP INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO RETURN WITH TRADE WIND
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WIND WARD AREAS OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PR EACH
AFTERNOON FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO
AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE WEEKEND...INCREASING ONCE AGAIN
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR XCP MVFR IN SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA SPCLLY WEST PR
TUE/WED AFT INCLUDING TJMZ/TJBQ AND SOME OBSCD MTNS. WIND BLW
FL100 E-ESE 14-22 KT DECR 6-16 KT ON WED.

&&

.MARINE...AS TROPICAL WAVE MOVES OVER THE CARIBBEAN...WINDS OF 15
TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND SEAS BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET ARE
EXPECTED TODAY. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS
DUE TO LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 89 79 / 20 20 20 0
STT 90 80 89 79 / 40 20 20 10

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Aug 12, 2015 4:26:44 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Aug 12, 2015 4:26:44 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
541 AM AST WED AUG 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW NOW CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
FARTHER WEST AND REPOSITION OVER EASTERN CUBA BY FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN BY THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. MID LEVEL RIDGE AND WILL HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY
TO HELP MAINTAIN OVERALL DRY MID LEVEL CONDITIONS THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK. RIDGE IS TO THEN WEAKEN AS LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING
MOISTURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS. A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS NOW ACROSS
HISPANIOLA AND TRAILING MOISTURE WILL MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
REGION AS A DRIER AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL QUICKLY FILTER IN FROM
THE EAST LATER TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED MAINLY OVER THE
OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME BRUSHED
PARTS OF THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED OR REPORTED OVER LAND.FRAGMENTS
OF TRAILING MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...TO AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE WEST AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. LESSER SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED ELSEWHERE...AS A
DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY. FOR THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK...EXPECT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS...WITH LIGHT EARLY MORNING TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS
WINDWARD AREAS...FOLLOWED BY LIMITED AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER
WESTERN PUERTO RICO EACH DAY.

RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE PRESENT CONDITIONS
AND CONTINUED TO SUGGEST PWAT VALUES TO QUICKLY DECREASE TO BELOW
1.50 INCHES BY THURSDAY...AS THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL PROMOTE MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR MOST
OF THE ISLANDS. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY...THEN MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL AGAIN INCREASE
THE CHANCE FOR ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH BEST CHANCE ON SUNDAY...AS TUTT LOW IS
FORECAST TO ONCE AGAIN REESTABLISH JUST NORTH OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND AND THE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
TERMINALS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...BRIEF SHRA ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
MAY CAUSE VCSH AT TIST/TISX/TJSJ UNTIL 12/16Z. SHRA/TSRA WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN PR AFTER 12/16Z...PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS AT TJMZ WITH VCTS/VCSH LIKELY FOR TJBQ. WINDS WILL
BE FROM THE EAST AT AROUND 5-10 KT EARLY THIS MORNING...INCREASING
TO 10-15 KT AFTER 12/12Z CONTINUED FROM THE EAST BUT WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS DEVELOPING.

&&

.MARINE... SEAS WILL RANGE MAINLY BETWEEN 2 TO 5 FEET. MARINERS CAN
EXPECT EASTERLY TRADE WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 20 KNOTS. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN PR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 90 79 / 20 10 20 10
STT 90 79 88 79 / 20 20 20 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Aug 13, 2015 4:26:11 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Aug 13, 2015 4:26:11 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR

454 AM AST THU AUG 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW EAST OF HISPANIOLA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN

WHILE SHIFTING FARTHER WEST AND OVER EASTERN CUBA BY FRIDAY. HIGH

PRESSURE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ALOFT TODAY AND INTO UPCOMING

WEEKEND. MID LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ERODE

BUT WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE MID LEVEL CONDITIONS.

HOWEVER...BY EARLY FRIDAY...THE WEAKENING RIDGE WILL BE REPLACED

BY A LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE EAST. THIS WILL

BRINGING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND ALSO ERODE THE CAP

INVERSION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC

WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

THIS WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS. A

DRIER AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE AREAS

TODAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...OVERALL A DRIER AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL SPREAD

ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND ON FRIDAY. EXPECT THE REGION TO REMAIN

ON THE CONVERGENT SIDE OF A MID TO UPPER RIDGE WHICH IS TO HOLD

AND PROMOTE THE MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY AND FRIDAY.

GFS MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS SAT DERIVED PWAT FORECAST PRODUCT

AND ANALYSIS...AND UPPER AIR SOUNDING DATA... ALL SUGGEST OVERALL

PWAT VALUES DECREASING TO BELOW 1.50 ON FRIDAY AS THE DRIER AIR

SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION.

THE LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO

THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY...THEN

MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE

THE CHANCE FOR SOME ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS

OVER THE WEEKEND. STILL THE BEST POTENTIAL SO FAR APPEARS TO BE ON

SUNDAY AS TUTT LOW IS FORECAST TO REESTABLISH JUST NORTH OF THE AREA.

SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION IS STILL NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION...

AS RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE

WOULD SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH ONLY PERIPHERAL MOISTURE MOVING

TOWARDS THE ISLANDS. SO FOR NOW...NO WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL

IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS MAY

HOWEVER EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF ENHANCED CONVECTION WITH MODERATE

TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN ISOLATED SPOTS ESPECIALLY DURING

EARLY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL

FLYING AREA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...BRIEF SHRA ACROSS THE LOCAL

AREA MAY CAUSE VCSH AT TIST/TISX/TJSJ UNTIL 13/14Z. SHRA/ISOLD TSRA

WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN PR AFTER 13/16Z...PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS

OF MVFR CONDS AT TJMZ WITH VCTS/VCSH LIKELY FOR TJBQ. WINDS WILL

BE FM THE EAST AT AROUND 5-10 KT EARLY THIS MORNING...INCREASING

TO 10-15 KT AFTER 13/12Z CONTINUED FROM THE EAST BUT WITH SEA BREEZE

VARIATIONS DEVELOPING.

&&

.MARINE...MARINERS CAN EXPECT SEAS RANGING BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FEET

BUT OCCASIONALLY UP TO 5 FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS

AND THE MONA PASSAGE. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS

WITH OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 22 KNOTS OR SO IN SOME AREAS

DURG THE AFTN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

SJU 89 78 88 79 / 10 10 30 10

STT 90 79 88 78 / 20 20 20 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Aug 14, 2015 4:09:35 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Aug 14, 2015 4:09:35 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR

436 AM AST FRI AUG 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION

TODAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL

REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT

SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL HELP MANTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY

TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS

NOW NEAR 56 WEST...IS FORECAST TO ENTER AND MOVE ACROSS THE

EASTERN CARIBBEAN SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

PASSING SHOWERS CONTINUED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE EAST COASTAL

SECTION OF THE ISLAND THIS MORNING...AS A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL

MOISTURE MOVED ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ALONG WITH LOCAL AND

DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL AID IN DEVELOPING AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND

POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...OVER PARTS OF THE METRO AREA...

NORTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO. SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS

ARE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER THIS WILL

BE SHORT LIVED...AS RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO SHOW A

RAPID INCREASE IN THE LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...

SUGGESTING INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...AS THE TUTT REPOSITIONS JUST

NORTH OF THE AREA BY LATE SATURDAY...THIS SHOULD INCREASE

POTENTIAL FOR SOME ENHANCED CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE

ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ON SUNDAY...AS THE

RIDGE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO ERODE. BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON A

SOMEWHAT DRIER PATTERN IS FORECAST ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL

MOSITURE AND THE INTERACTION OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS

WILL SUPPORT SOME EARLY MORNING AND AFTERNON CONVECTION ACROSS OF

THE ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...

BRIEF SHRA ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MAY CAUSE VCSH AT TIST/TISX/TJSJ

UNTIL 13/14Z. SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN PR AFTER

14/16Z...PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN

OBSCURATIONS AT TJMZ WITH VCTS/VCSH PSBL FOR TJBQ. WINDS WILL BE

MAINLY FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT AFTER

14/13Z WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS DEVELOPING.

&&

.MARINE...

SEAS WILL BE GENERALLY BETWEEN 1 AND 4 FEET ACROSS MOST OF THE

LOCAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE WINDS GENERALLY AROUND

15 KNOTS. THE LOCAL BUOYS ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS

REPORTED SEAS IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE WITH WINDS GENERALLY AROUND

10 TO 15 KNOTS. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL

THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

SJU 90 79 90 78 / 30 10 40 20

STT 90 80 89 78 / 30 20 40 40

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Aug 15, 2015 4:04:33 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Aug 15, 2015 4:04:33 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR

500 AM AST SAT AUG 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION

THROUGH TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF THE REGION WILL

AMPLIFY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A TROPICAL

WAVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED ISOLATED SHOWERS

ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS

MORNING. NOT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED ELSEWHERE OVER

LAND AREAS SO FAR THIS MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS

WERE ALSO DETECTED ACROSS THE WATERS TO THE EAST OF THE U.S.

VIRGIN ISLANDS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF A TROPICAL

WAVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING.

A SUBEQUATORIAL UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN

WATERS SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA...WILL CONTINUE OVER

THE REGION UNTIL TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF THE

REGION IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT AND

SUNDAY.

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE

WILL REACH THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE THIS MORNING AND EASTERN

SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE GFS MODEL

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN INCREASE IN PWAT VALUES FROM NEAR 1.70 INCHES

THIS MORNING TO NEAR 2.00 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER 2.00

INCHES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE DEVELOPING UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE

REGION WILL ENHANCE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY...

ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN AND

INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN

PUERTO RICO TODAY AND SUNDAY. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE

WAVE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION UNTIL MONDAY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE AREA REMAIN OVER LAND AREAS

WITH A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS OVER LOCAL WATERS. CONDS WILL REMAIN VFR

IN PR AND USVI UNTIL AFT 15/16Z. IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS PASSING SHRA

OVER TNCM AND TKPK WILL CONT INTERMITTENTLY THRU 16/00Z WITH BRIEF

MVFR LIKELY. THIS MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE IN USVI BY 15/12Z AND IN PR

BY 15/14Z CAUSING MTN OBSCURATIONS. AFT 15/16Z EXPECT

SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY WRN PR AFFECTING TJBQ AND TJMZ WITH MVFR CONDS.

WINDS E TO ESE 10 TO 20 KT BCMG ESE TO SE AFT 15/12Z WITH SEA BREEZE

VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...QUIET MARINE CONDITION WILL REMAIN WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 4

FEET AND WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS. FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SEAS

SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY CALM TO SOME CHOP AS WAVE HEIGHTS ARE

EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 5 FEET FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

SJU 90 78 88 78 / 40 20 30 30

STT 88 79 87 79 / 40 40 40 30

Shoutbox

northshoreelise: not on the 12z... Oct 10, 2024 12:15:21 GMT -6

lencast: Really would appreciate it. Thank you, Lena Sept 27, 2024 5:20:46 GMT -6

lencast: I am in Jacksonville, and trying to drive back to New Orleans. Does anyone here know if the I-10 is passable in Lake City and Tallahassee. Sept 27, 2024 5:19:03 GMT -6

tcane: This sure looks like it dies quickly. maybe falling apart before metro New Orleans? Just looking at the lat dozen posts and images here. Sept 10, 2024 11:26:27 GMT -6

rebekahb-Metairie: Looks like it but I wait for the better trained eyes on the forum to respond. Sept 9, 2024 18:52:32 GMT -6

jdschlum-bedico/village of bo: Look further east than the 12z plots don’t it Sept 9, 2024 18:49:34 GMT -6

SKYSUMMIT: Oh sorry guys! I didn't eve see these new messages down here lol Jul 26, 2024 13:14:47 GMT -6

jenniqtip: Just as soon as* sry fat finger Jul 7, 2024 12:53:35 GMT -6

jenniqtip: I donate every year. 😀ju sry as soon as the first area of interest pops up!! I rarely post though so the tag isn’t necessary. Just know I appreciate everything you do!! Jul 7, 2024 12:53:12 GMT -6

larcat: SKYSUMMIT You can slap one on me

Jul 7, 2024 12:12:03 GMT -6

SKYSUMMIT: Thanks laismyhome ! Also, if there is anyone who has donated that has not been given the Supporter tag, please let us know. Jul 7, 2024 4:00:50 GMT -6

laismyhome: Here's a friendly reminder to go make a donation to support this forum that is so full of valuable reliable info. Link to donate is on homepage Jul 2, 2024 9:55:24 GMT -6

Deleted: Ernesto gonna mog hard.
I'm voting Alberto, Ernesto, Rafael and Deshawn Apr 1, 2024 19:15:21 GMT -6

SKYSUMMIT: ShanaBanana Yes...just click the link and then send a PM to either TIgergirl or myself. I can then shoot her a text letting her know and I'll add your supporter tag. THANK YOU!!!! Sept 23, 2023 16:08:37 GMT -6

ShanaBanana: At the risk of this being a dumb question. In order to donate, do I follow the instructions when I click “donate”, and then message tigergirl? I see people comment here that they donated, so I wasn’t sure if that had changed. Sept 20, 2023 10:54:40 GMT -6

SKYSUMMIT: Great to have you back! Sept 11, 2023 12:20:30 GMT -6

virginialee: Hi Skysummit: I was part of this back at the beginning. So happy to be back. Sept 8, 2023 5:08:12 GMT -6

SKYSUMMIT: Thanks to everyone who has recently donated! If I missed anyone and you still need a Supporter Tag, let me know. Sept 7, 2023 13:20:10 GMT -6

akeller11: Just donated Sept 6, 2023 11:11:36 GMT -6

SKYSUMMIT: Thanks guys and gals! You're very much appreciated! Aug 30, 2023 11:48:38 GMT -6

Puerto Rico Weather

Post by cycloneye on Jul 31, 2015 4:18:16 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Aug 1, 2015 4:16:54 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Aug 3, 2015 4:14:41 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Aug 4, 2015 4:16:53 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Aug 5, 2015 4:07:31 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Aug 6, 2015 4:10:00 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Aug 7, 2015 4:20:25 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Aug 8, 2015 4:14:01 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Aug 9, 2015 4:19:28 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Aug 10, 2015 4:05:33 GMT -6

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Post by cycloneye on Aug 13, 2015 4:26:11 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Aug 14, 2015 4:09:35 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Aug 15, 2015 4:04:33 GMT -6

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