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cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Jan 6, 2016 4:30:55 GMT -6

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Post by cycloneye on Jan 6, 2016 4:30:55 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
611 AM AST WED JAN 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE
REGION. A FEW UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL CROSS THE LOCAL REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY ENHANCING THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND INSTABILITY
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL BUILD AGAIN
OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN DURING WEEKEND BRINGING A FAIR WEATHER
PATTERN TO THE ISLANDS. A SURFACE LOW OVER CUBA WILL DEEPEN AS IT
MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC...WEAKENING THE LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT. SURFACE MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CLOUDINESS SLOWLY DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER TRADE WIND
SHOWERS MOVED ACROSS THE WINDWARD SECTIONS FROM TIME TO TIME.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED POCKETS OF CLOUDINESS WITH TRADE WIND
SHOWERS APPROACHING THE REGION. IN ADDITION...THE MIMIC TPW
SHOWED A SURGE OF MOISTURE WITH AMOUNTS NEAR 2 INCHES OF
PRECIPITABLE WATERS OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA.
THEREFORE...OCCASIONAL BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS...THE EASTERN THIRD OF PR AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. DURING
THE AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
INTERIOR...AND WESTERN PR.

THIS PATTERN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION DURING MOST OF THE WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL THROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE ISLANDS TO INCREASE THE INSTABILITY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL MAINTAIN HIGH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. STABLE PATTERN RETURNS DURING THE
WEEKEND AS A SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN BASIN.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH AT LEAST 07/00Z EXCEPT FOR BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE AT TNCM AND
TKPK TIL 07/18Z. VCSH ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST TAF SITES. MTNS IN
PR NOT ALREADY OBSCURED WILL BECOME OBSCURED BY 06/12Z WITH MOISTURE
FROM SOUTHEAST. WINDS BELOW FL180 WILL CONT FROM THE E TO ESE AT 10
KTS OR LESS BLO FL180... HOWEVER LAND/SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE WILL
PREVAIL AT THE SFC.

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...THE LOCAL BUOY NETWORK IS INDICATING SEAS BETWEEN
1-4 FEET ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE USVI AND PUERTO RICO.
WINDS ARE MAINLY FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5-14 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS NEAR SHOWERS...EXCEPT NEAR ST THOMAS WHERE WINDS UP
TO 18 KNOTS WERE REPORTED. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS DUE TO SEAS UP TO 6 FEET. A
LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL WILL REACH THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
PASSAGES BY THURSDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS DURING THAT PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 74 87 74 / 50 40 30 30
STT 83 74 84 75 / 30 30 20 40

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Jan 7, 2016 5:27:32 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Jan 7, 2016 5:27:32 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
645 AM AST THU JAN 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
TODAY AND INTO FRIDAY. A SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN LATE DURING THE WEEKEND. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...A
BROAD INDUCED TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL HELP MAINTAIN A MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT LEAST UNTIL
FRIDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...TO THE NORTH OF THE
BAHAMAS...WILL CONTINUE TO TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC AND LIFT FURTHER NORTHWARDS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THIS WILL AID IN WEAKENING THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AS WELL AS
MAINTAIN A SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER TRADE WIND SHOWERS
MOVED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND THE WINDWARD SECTIONS OF PR/USVI FROM
TIME TO TIME. SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUED TO SHOWED POCKETS OF
CLOUDINESS WITH TRADE WIND SHOWERS APPROACHING THE REGION. THE
MIMIC TPW SHOWED LESS PRECIPITABLE WATERS OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS...THE EASTERN THIRD OF PR AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. DURING THE AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE INTERIOR...AND WESTERN PR.

THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
INSTABILITY WILL MAINTAIN GOOD POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION EACH DAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH RAINFALL MAY BE MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY IN
SOME ISOLATED SPOTS...NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHEAST FLOW IS CARRYING SMALL SCT SHRA ACROSS LEEWARD
ISLANDS AND THRU FA. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDS BUT SE COAST OF PR WILL
HAVE MVFR CIGS TIL ARND 07/10Z AND TNCM...TKPK WILL HAVE BRIEF MVFR
CIGS THRU 08/02Z. AFT 07/16Z AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND MTN OBSCURATIONS
TO DVLP ACROSS PR INCL E-SE INTERIOR/COAST AND WRN INTERIOR
INCLUDING TJMZ AND BRIEFLY TJBQ. ESE FLOW 5 TO 15 KT FL010-FL090
BCMG SE AFT 07/12Z. WINDS BCM WLY ABV FL180 AFT 07/12Z. BEST WINDS
WEST ARND 50 KT AT FL370.

&&

.MARINE...LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL STARTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL BE IN EFFECT AT LEAST UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...THIS SWELL WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS
AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG MOST OF THE NORTH FACING
BEACHES OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. MARINERS CAN
EXPECT ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STAY TUNED FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 73 86 75 / 30 30 50 50
STT 84 75 83 74 / 30 40 40 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Jan 8, 2016 4:00:45 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Jan 8, 2016 4:00:45 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
552 AM AST FRI JAN 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVED THROUGH
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A BROAD RIDGE FROM HIGH PRESSURE IN NORTHERN
SOUTH AMERICA WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVER THE
WEEKEND AND THEN MOVE OVER THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS HIGH
WILL THEN TILT INTO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE REMAINDER OF
NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IT WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. PATCHES OF MOISTURE
IN THE MID LEVELS WILL GIVE WAY TO MUCH DRIER AIR SUNDAY THROUGH
THE FOLLOWING FRIDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE MONA
CHANNEL WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST TODAY AND SATURDAY AND THEN EAST
SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK ARRIVING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILL IN BEHIND IT
CAUSING GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE LOCAL
AREA. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEARING SHALLOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 10 DAYS EVEN THOUGH THE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUED OVERNIGHT
CARRYING SCATTERED SHOWERS. SHOWERS THAT MOVED ONSHORE IN PUERTO
RICO...HOWEVER...GENERALLY DISSIPATED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
LEAVING THE REST OF THE ISLAND DRY. SEVERAL OF THE STRONGER
SHOWERS PASSED OVER SAINT THOMAS AT THE AIRPORT IN CHARLOTTE
AMALIE LEAVING 23 HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH BEFORE 2 AM AST. ONLY
TRACES WERE SEEN IN SAINT CROIX. MOISTURE WILL PEAK AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. A COL AT THE TAIL OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PASS JUST
NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY BY
08/18Z. THIS WILL ALLOW THE RAINS THAT FORM TO FOCUS MORE OVER
THE WEST-CENTRAL INTERIOR AND THE SOUTHWEST. AGAIN THE NAM5 MODEL
APPEARED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE OF THE AREA OF FORMATION. WINDS
ARE FAIRLY LIGHT AND SEA BREEZES WILL ALSO PLAY A ROLE IN SHOWER
LOCATION. EVEN ON THE NORTHEAST COAST THIS SHOULD PLACE SHOWERS
SOMEWHAT INLAND. ON SATURDAY WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY AS WE
COME UNDER THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE COL AND THE AREA OF
SHOWER FORMATION IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO JUST INLAND FROM THE
SOUTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO. BUT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
STILL EXPECTED OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

WITH A DRYING TREND SHOWERS CHANCES WILL DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY
DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS WILL YIELD LESS
RAINFALL AND SKIES WILL BECOME A LITTLE SUNNIER. WINDS SHIFT AWAY
FROM THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MID WEEK NEXT WEEK...BUT SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN SPOTTY OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE USVI AND THE WINDWARD COASTS OF PUERTO RICO
EACH DAY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EARLY
WITH A SLIGHT COOLING TREND NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD.
VCSH LIKELY OVER THE LEEWARD AND USVI TERMINALS AS TRADE WIND SHRAS
MOVE ACROSS THE FLYING AREA THIS MORNING. THEN...VCSH WITH SCT-BKN
CIGS EXPECTED NEAR TJMZ AND TJPS AS WELL AS MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL BETWEEN 08/17Z-23Z. WINDS FROM SE
THIS MORNING WILL BACK TO THE EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. SPEED AROUND
10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...7 FOOT SWELL ARE STILL APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST. WITH LIGHT WINDS THEY WILL NOT BE
SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TOMORROW
BUT MANY AREAS WILL STILL EXPERIENCE 5 TO 6 FOOT SWELL IN THE
ATLANTIC AND PASSAGES THROUGH SATURDAY. SEAS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT ANOTHER LARGE SWELL WILL MOVE IN FROM NORTH NORTHEAST
LATE MONDAY FROM THE LOW PRESSURE NOW ESTABLISHED IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SHOULD BE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK IN THE ATLANTIC AND PASSAGES. SEAS IN THE
CARIBBEAN WILL REMAIN COMPARATIVELY TRANQUIL.

WE CONTINUE TO CARRY A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON WHEN 8 TO 10 FOOT BREAKING
WAVES DIMINISH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 73 86 74 / 20 20 20 40
STT 84 74 84 74 / 20 40 20 40

&&

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Jan 9, 2016 4:19:57 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Jan 9, 2016 4:19:57 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
605 AM AST SAT JAN 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. IT WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE REST OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE LOCAL COASTAL
WATERS OVERNIGHT. NO SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED OVER LAND
AREAS. LOCAL AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ONLY PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WINDS WILL AFFECT THE REGION FROM TIME TO
TIME...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN NEAR TJMZ AND TJPS AS WELL AS
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL BETWEEN 17Z-22Z.
SFC WINDS FROM ENE AT 10 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE
CAUTION ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. A MODERATE
TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST FACING BEACHES OF PUERTO RICO.

AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF THE
BERMUDA ISLAND MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC THE
MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE DURING THE EARLY
PARTS OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. STAY TUNED FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 86 75 / 20 30 30 50
STT 84 75 85 74 / 20 20 20 40

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Jan 10, 2016 4:01:24 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Jan 10, 2016 4:01:24 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
512 AM AST SUN JAN 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE MONA PASSAGE THIS
MORNING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD WHILE DISSIPATES
TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE WILL
REMAIN AS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE WEST
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WEAK LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS THROUGH MONDAY...INCREASING
SLIGHTLY THEREAFTER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS PERSISTED OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH/SHEAR LINE OVER THE MONA PASSAGE. THE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD WHILE DISSIPATES TODAY
AND TONIGHT. UNDER A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL
WIND FLOW...THE LINGERING MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND OTHER LOCAL EFFECTS
TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN SLOPES AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...NOT WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION AND WILL BECOME THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS THIS HAPPENS...AN AREA OF
DRIER AIR WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST EARLY IN
THE WEEK DECREASING THE PWAT VALUES TO WELL BELOW 1.50 INCHES
UNTIL LATE IN THE LABOR WEEK. THE DRIER AIR AND THE PREVAILING
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LOWER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS UNTIL AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD. VCSH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT TJBQ UNTIL AT LEAST 11/12Z.
LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 10K FEET...BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AND
STRONGER...UP TO 45 KNOTS...ABOVE 10K FEET.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SLOWLY TODAY...WITH SEAS
UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON
AS A SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHENS WHILE MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED AND WILL BE IN EFFECT STARTING ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 75 84 73 / 30 50 50 20
STT 84 74 84 74 / 20 40 40 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Jan 11, 2016 4:57:56 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Jan 11, 2016 4:57:56 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
622 AM AST MON JAN 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHEASTERLY SWELL EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL
WATERS TODAY AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL ATLANTIC MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST. UPPER RIDGE WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS PATCHES OF
MOISTURE MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE BIG STORY OF THE DAY IS THE FACT THAT THE STRONG
AND LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL WILL DETERIORATE THE LOCAL MARINE
CONDITIONS STARTING TODAY. THERE IS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
STARTING THIS AFTERNOON...THEN A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND A COASTAL
FLOOD WATCH STARTING THIS EVENING. HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR
MANY OF THE LOCAL BEACHES. MARINE AND SURF CONDITIONS WILL BE
DANGEROUS STARTING TODAY.

THE PREVAILING WIND WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...WHICH WILL BRING SOME DRIER AIR WITH SOME PATCHES OF
MOISTURE THAT WILL CAUSE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED BRIEF SHOWERS OVER
THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY AND TUESDAY. THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION
MODEL INDICATES THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE OBSERVED TODAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS
THE SOUTHERN SECTORS...IN PARTICULAR THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF
PR IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EVEN THOUGH THERE IS DRIER AIR
ADVECTION IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...THE MOISTURE MAY LINGER A
BIT LONGER ACROSS SW-PR.

FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...FAIRLY DRY AIR IS
EXPECTED WITH A FEW PATCHES OF MOISTURE THAT MAY CAUSE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS...AS WELL AS IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS. BUT THE
MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED SO THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE BRIEF. SO
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. VCSH PSBL ALONG NORTH COAST OF PR AND AT
TJBQ...TJSJ...TIST...TIL 11/12Z W/BRIEF PASSING SHRA AND SCT-BKN CLD
LYRS FL020..FL050. WINDS OVERNIGHT LGT/VRB BLO FL100. MOSTLY VFR
ACROSS LOCAL FLYING AREA AFT 11/12Z. WNDS BCMG MOSTLY E AT 10 TO 15
KTS AFT 11/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN UP TO 6 FEET THIS MORNING. A LARGE AND
LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST SWELLS REACHING THE 8.5 FEET WITH
PERIODS OF BETWEEN 13 TO 14 SECONDS TONIGHT. THEREFORE A HIGH
SURF ADVISORY AND A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN USVI WILL GO INTO EFFECT TONIGHT.
THERE IS ALSO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHICH GOES INTO EFFECT THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 73 85 74 / 50 20 20 10
STT 84 73 84 73 / 40 20 20 10

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Jan 12, 2016 5:54:42 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Jan 12, 2016 5:54:42 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
717 AM AST TUE JAN 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA REMAINS OVER OR NEAR PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AND DRIFTS
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AFTER THAT.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
CONTINUES THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. MID LEVELS REMAIN PARCHED
THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS EXCEPT FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHEN
HUMIDITIES APPROACH 30 PERCENT.

AT LOWER LEVELS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL BE
REPLACED BY A SLIGHTLY STRONGER HIGH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON
THURSDAY NIGHT. WHEN THIS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS NORTH OF THE AREA THAT WILL MAINTAIN THE TRADE WIND FLOW
AND CAUSE IT TO SHIFT TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST. SHALLOW MOISTURE IN
THE LOWER LEVELS WILL ALLOW LIGHT SHOWERS TO FORM OVER THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AFTER SOME HEAVY RAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON IN
SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO...SHOWERS MOVED TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE
CARIBBEAN DURING THE NIGHT AND HAVE NOW LEFT THE FORECAST
AREA...LEAVING ONLY SMALL LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS. OVER THE AREA. THE
GFS SHOWS AREAS OF MOISTURE APPROACHING PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHEAST. THE FIRST SURGE APPEARS TO
DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING LAND TODAY...BUT THE SECOND IS SHOWN TO
BE MOVING ONSHORE WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF RAINFALL LATER
TONIGHT. VERY DRY AIR RESIDES ABOVE THIS MOISTURE AT HEIGHTS NO
GREATER THAN 5 TO 7 THOUSAND FEET. A WEAK LAYER OF MOISTURE AT
AROUND 9 TO 10 KFT SHOWING UP AS SCATTERED TO BROKEN ALTOCUMULUS
SHOULD ALSO BE EXPECTED. BEGINNING TONIGHT THE INFLUENCE OF
WESTERLY WINDS THAT EXTEND FROM ABOVE 50 KFT DOWN TO AROUND 15
KFT...WILL SLOWLY PENETRATE DOWNWARD UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN
WESTERLIES ARE AS LOW AS 10 KFT. ALSO...IN A SITUATION THAT HAS
BEEN ATYPICAL UP TO NOW...BUT RELATED TO THE WINDS JUST
MENTIONED...PARCELS ARE NOW CAPPED AND NO LONGER HAVE SUFFICIENT
BUOYANCY TO PENETRATE BEYOND ABOUT 10 KFT. SO LIMITED MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN VERY LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL THE LOCAL TERMINALS
THROUGH 12/18Z. ISOLD SHWRS COULD DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA...EXPECT VCSH AT TJBQ. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT...BCMG MOSTLY FROM NE AFT 12/14Z...BELOW 15 KTS
...EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF SEA BREEZE AT TJPS AND TJMZ DURING AFTERNOON
HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL MONTHS...THE
WAVE WATCH MODEL HAS DONE A HORRIFIC JOB WITH WAVE HEIGHTS...AS
SWELL FROM PASSING LOW PRESSURES NORTH OF US ROLL IN. FOR SEVERAL
HOURS YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT SEAS HAVE BEEN AS MUCH AS
150 PERCENT...5 FEET...HIGHER AT THE BUOYS THAN FORECAST. USERS
SHOULD BE AWARE THAT THIS COULD LEAD TO SERIOUS SAFETY ISSUES IF
TAKEN AT FACE VALUE. FORTUNATELY SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE...BUT THEY WILL COME DOWN SLOWLY AND SEAS WILL REMAIN AT
LEAST 7 FEET IN SOME AREAS OF THE ATLANTIC AND PASSAGES THROUGH
FRIDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS AND SURF FORECASTS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST AND THE SURF ZONE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 84 74 / 10 10 20 10
STT 84 73 83 72 / 20 10 20 10

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Jan 13, 2016 4:48:11 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Jan 13, 2016 4:48:11 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
641 AM AST WED JAN 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN THRU AT LEAST NEXT WEEK. WEAK SFC HIGH NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS WILL BE REPLACED BY A STRONGER ONE BY LATE THURSDAY AS IT
MOVES FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY THE
WEEKEND. MEANWHILE AN UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT WILL
MOVE AND REMAIN FAR TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED
ACROSS ALL LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS WERE
NOTED OVER BOTH ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS. ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS
WERE DETECTED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF PR. FOR
TODAY...FCST SOUNDINGS AND MODEL GUIDANCE ARE INDICATING THAT A
DRIER AIR MASS AND LOW PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.00 INCH WILL MOVE BY
NOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN A MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND
FLOW. HOWEVER...A FEW CLOUDS AND BRIEF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN OVER THE WEST/SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PR THIS AFTERNOON...DUE
TO THE AVAILABLE LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOCAL EFFECTS.

AS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS AT SFC AND ALOFT HOLDS THRU THE FCST
PERIOD...SIMILAR FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY AND
NIGHT AT LEAST THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS NEW SFC HIGH ESTABLISHES
NORTH OF THE AREA...WINDS WILL TURN MORE EAST-SOUTHEAST BY THE END
OF THE WEEK...AND AFTERNOON SHALLOW CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO
THE INTERIOR AND NW QUADRANT OF PR.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS UNTIL 13/14Z...INCREASING SLIGHTLY TO
ABOUT 10KT FROM THE EAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS. BRIEF MOMENTS
WITH VCSH POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT PARTICULARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AT TJPS AND TJMZ AS SHRA DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTH AND WEST PR.

&&

.MARINE...A SECOND PULSE OF THE LONG PERIOD NORTH-NORTHEAST SWELL
IS FORECAST TO REACH THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS BY NOON TODAY. A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF PR AND
A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE USVI AND CULEBRA. A
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THRU AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING FOR
ALL NORTH AND EAST FACING BEACHES OF PR/CULEBRA AND THE USVI.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE (CFWSJU) AND
SURF ZONE FORECAST(SRFSJU) FOR MORE INFORMATION. THE SWELL WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE THRU THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...LIFE THREATENING
RIP CURRENTS AND ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF
THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 73 84 73 / 20 10 20 10
STT 84 72 83 72 / 10 10 20 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Jan 14, 2016 4:04:25 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Jan 14, 2016 4:04:25 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
428 AM AST THU JAN 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION INTO NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EMERGING FROM NORTH AMERICA ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL INDUCE A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION AT IT MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS BY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ONLY FEW LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE DETECTED ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING.
NOT PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT WEEK.
THIS FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A GENERALLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. ONLY FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE NIGHTS AND EARLY IN THE
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE OF SHOWERS OVER WESTERN AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS IN THE AFTERNOON. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO APPROACH TO THE ATLANTIC WATERS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURE WILL CONTINUE
SPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. NOT
CHANGES TO THE PRESENT WEATHER PATTERN ARE EXPECTED IN THE FORESEE
FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT THE SFC UNTIL 14/13Z...BCMG E-NE
AT 10-12 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS THEREAFTER.

&&

.MARINE...RECENT BUOY DATA FROM THE LOCAL NETWORK SUGGEST SEAS UP
TO 7 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO
RICO. HOWEVER...A TREND TO DIMINISH WAS OBSERVED ACROSS BOTH SJ
AND RINCON BUOY. HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
CONTINUE IN EFFECT ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTHERN PUERTO
RICO AND THE NORTH FACING BEACHES OF THE U.S.V.I. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION GO TO THE MARINE AND COASTAL PRODUCTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 85 72 / 10 10 10 10
STT 85 73 84 73 / 20 20 20 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Jan 16, 2016 7:44:13 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Jan 16, 2016 7:44:13 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR

410 AM AST SAT JAN 16 2016

.SYNOPSIS....A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN

BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH

THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MOVE INTO

THE CENTRAL/EASTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND...SHIFTING TRADES

MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS

AFFECTED THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND LOCAL

ISLANDS. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THESE SAME AREAS

THROUGH MID MORNING TODAY.

MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...MAINTAINING DRY AIR ALOFT AND

SUBSIDENCE CAP UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A

GENERALLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND

SURROUNDING WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

EXPECT LIGHT TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN

SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS...FOLLOWED

BY LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS

OF PR IN THE AFTERNOON. AS RIDGE ALOFT HOLDS THROUGH THE FORECAST

PERIOD OVER THE CARIBBEAN...POLAR TROFS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL

BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH

OF THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24

HOURS. LIGHT WINDS UNTIL 16/12Z...THEN EAST WINDS AT AROUND 10-15KT

EXPECTED. BKN CLD LAYER AT AROUND FL050-FL060 UNTIL AROUND 16/22Z

ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS. -SHRA ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MAY

CAUSE BRIEF VCSH. NO SIG OPERATIONAL WX IMPACTS ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AS SEAS UP TO 6

FEET ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND LOCAL

PASSAGES. HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH

SHORE OF PR...CULEBRA AND BEACHES OF THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF

THE USVI. EAST WINDS WITH A SLIGHT SOUTHEAST COMPONENT WILL

CONTINUE AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

SJU 87 73 86 74 / 20 20 20 10

STT 84 77 83 73 / 30 30 30 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Jan 17, 2016 4:34:51 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Jan 17, 2016 4:34:51 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR

401 AM AST SUN JAN 17 2016

.SYNOPSIS... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL

SHIFT FARTHER EAST INTO INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THROUGH THE

REST OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN LIGHT OT MODERATE

EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA.

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS

THE LOCAL FORCEAST AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW SHOWERS

MOVE ON SHORE AND AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. ALSO

THE LOCAL ISLAND OF CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

EXPERIENCED BRIEFED PASSING SHOWERS WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL

ACCUMULATIONS.

CLOUDS AND PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL

ISLANDS THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWS ANOTHER BATCH OF

CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE ANEGADA PACKAGE THAT WILL

CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD OUR LOCAL FORECAST AREA THROUGH

THIS EVENING.

LIMITED SHOWERS CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS

AS A HIGH PRESSURE IN COMBINATION WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE

WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE

NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...AREAS OF SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN

THE TRADES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME TO

TIME...INDUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS.

NOT CHANGES EXPECTED TO THE PRESENT WEATHER PATTERN IN THE

FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS FOR

THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER... TEMPO BKN CLD LAYERS AROUND FL030-060

ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MANY OF THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 17/14Z AND 17/21Z

...SPREADING FROM THE LEEWARD TERMINALS EARLY IN THE MORNING INTO THE

USVI/EASTERN PR TERMINALS BY MID MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS

UNTIL 17/13Z...BECOMING EASTERLY WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT

AROUND 10KT THEREAFTER UNTIL 17/23Z. VERY LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY

EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERLY WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE ACROSS

ALL LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 5 FEET OR LESS.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS. HOWEVER...THERE

IS STILL AN OVERALL HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NORTH

FACING BEACHES OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND THE ISLAND OF SAINT

CROIX.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

SJU 86 75 86 75 / 20 20 20 30

STT 83 76 84 74 / 20 30 30 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Jan 18, 2016 4:06:02 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Jan 18, 2016 4:06:02 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
535 AM AST MON JAN 18 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL ISLANDS
MOST OF THE WEEK. A GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME INTERRUPTIONS AS BRIEF PASSING
SHOWERS PASS BY. A SLIGHTLY WETTER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY
WHEN MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A SHEAR LINE CROSSING THE ISLANDS. THEN...
DRIER AIR WILL RETURN THE SECOND PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL KEEP THE LOCAL
ATMOSPHERE RELATIVELY STABLE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS
WILL LIMIT THE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SHOWERS MOST OF THE
WEEK. A BRIEF SURGE OF MOISTURE IS FORECAST BETWEEN TUESDAY AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK SHEARLINE CROSSES THE ISLANDS. INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS
OF PR AND USVI. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS ACTIVITY. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL BE DRIVEN PRIMARILY
BY DAYTIME SEA BREEZES AND OVERNIGHT LAND BREEZES. THEREFORE...
SHALLOW CONVECTION CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AS SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE
WILL COMBINE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER SOME AREAS OF WESTERN PR EACH AFTERNOON. OVERALL...MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BETWEEN 18-23Z...VCSH POSSIBLE AT
JPS/JMZ DUE TO -SHRA DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWESTERN
PR. WINDS FM THE EAST AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS
AFTER 15Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 3-5 FT AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS OF AROUND 10
KT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
A NORTHERLY SWELL WILL REACH THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN
PASSAGES ON THURSDAY...BUILDING THE SEAS TO 5-6 FT. SEAS WILL RETURN
TO 3-5 FT DURING THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER NORTHERLY SWELL IS FORECAST FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 73 85 76 / 20 20 30 40
STT 85 78 84 79 / 20 20 30 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Jan 19, 2016 4:05:42 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Jan 19, 2016 4:05:42 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
433 AM AST TUE JAN 19 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE LOCAL ISLANDS MOST OF THE WEEK. A GENERALLY DRY AND
STABLE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SOME
ENHANCEMENT IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE TODAY AS AN AREA OF
TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE INDUCES THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THEN...DRIER AND
SUBSIDENCE AIR MASS WILL RETURN TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THE SECOND
PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE ISLANDS TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL TRADE WIND SHOWERS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THE REST OF TODAY. LIGHT
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS VERY
STRONG RIDGE MAINTAINS ITS FOOTHOLD OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
REGION. A QUIET PATTERN IS FORECAST THE REST OF THE WEEK. VERY DRY
AND SUBSIDENCE AIR MASS WILL PREVAIL AT MID LEVELS...LIMITING THE
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE DRIVEN
PRIMARILY BY DAYTIME SEA BREEZES AND OVERNIGHT LAND BREEZES. WITH
LIGHT WINDS DOMINATING...SHALLOW CONVECTION CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
AS SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE OVER THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE ISLAND WILL
INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
PR EACH AFTERNOON. OVERALL... MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE FCST PERIOD ACROSS
ALL TERMINALS. HOWEVER...EXPECT SCT-BKN CLD LYRS FL025...FL050 AND
FEW CU TOPS FL100...DUE TO SHRA EN ROUTE FM NRN LEEWARD TERMINALS
INTO EASTERN PR. AFTERNOON SHRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MTN
RANGES OF PR...IMPACTING MAINLY JPS/JMZ AND THE VCTY OF JSJ. LOW
LEVEL WINDS FROM THE E-ENE AT 5-15 KNOTS...WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS AFT 14Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 2-4 FT AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS OF AROUND 10
KT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
A NORTHERLY SWELL WILL REACH THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN
PASSAGES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUILDING THE SEAS TO 4-6 FT.
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT DURING THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER NORTHERLY SWELL
IS FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 86 75 / 30 30 20 20
STT 84 74 84 74 / 30 20 20 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Jan 20, 2016 4:09:30 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Jan 20, 2016 4:09:30 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
558 AM AST WED JAN 20 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD AT LEAST THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SHORT WAVE TROF
AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PASS OVER OR CLOSE TO THE
FCST AREA BY MON-TUE. SURFACE HIGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES...WINDS SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY BY
THE WEEKEND AS SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED
OVER THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT. THE
NORTHEAST WIND FLOW PUSHED A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL AREAS
OF NORTHERN PR. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH
WERE REPORTED WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. FOR THE REST OF THE
MORNING HOURS...PASSING SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
NORTHERN COASTAL AREAS OF PR. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED
TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND. ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

DRIER AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK. THE AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH TO
INDUCE AFTERNOON SHALLOW SHOWERS OVER THE MTN RANGES AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF PR. ELSEWHERE...PASSING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT MAINLY ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
WATERS. AS NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE CLOSE TO THE
AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS WILL INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL THE TAF SITES THRU THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SCT-BKN CLDS LAYERS AT FL022 AND FL050 WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE FLYING AREA THRU AT LEAST 20/12Z.
THEN...FEW-SCT CLDS WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF THE MORNING. SOME SHRA
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE W INTERIOR AND SW OF PR BTW 20/17Z-22Z...
HOWEVER ONLY VCSH EXPECTED AT TJPS AND TJMZ. WNDS FM E AT 10 KT
BELOW FL100.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY TONIGHT AS A LONG PERIOD
NORTHERLY SWELL BETWEEN 4 TO 6 FEET REACH THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE
WATERS. THEREFORE SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
TONIGHT. THE LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL CREATE LIFE THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS AND ROUGH SURF ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE OF THE
ISLANDS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN
EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 86 75 / 20 10 20 20
STT 84 73 84 73 / 30 20 20 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Jan 21, 2016 4:03:17 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Jan 21, 2016 4:03:17 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
553 AM AST THU JAN 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BASIN WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD THRU AT LEAST SATURDAY. UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PASS OVER OR CLOSE TO THE
FCST AREA FROM LATE SUNDAY THRU MONDAY. SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES...WINDS
SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW EXITS
THE U.S. ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED MAINLY
OVER THE WATERS...WITH A FEW OF THEM MOVING OVER THE USVI AND
ISOLATED AREAS OF EASTERN PR INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA.
HOWEVER...ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS WERE DETECTED OVER LAND AREAS AS OF 5
AM AST. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY OVER THE WATERS...WITH ONLY A FEW REACHING COASTAL AREAS OF
THE USVI/EASTERN PR. IN THE AFTERNOON...BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
IS EXPECTED ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND WESTERN PR. PLEASANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

AS RIDGE ALOFT WEAKENS THRU THE WEEKEND AND WINDS SHIFT MORE FROM
THE SOUTH...BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL FILL ACROSS THE AREA
AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS SHOULD FOCUS MORE TO THE NORTH OF THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL. THEN...AS UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT
REACH THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...MORE CLOUDINESS AND
A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL
LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL THE TAF SITES THRU THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SHRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEST OF PR BTW
21/17Z-22Z...HOWEVER ONLY VCSH EXPECTED AT TJMZ. WINDS FM E AT 10-15
KT WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THROUGH AT LEAST LATE FRIDAY. LOCAL
BUOYS ARE INDICATING THE SWELL AT 4-6 FEET AROUND 11-12 SECONDS.
THIS WILL CREATE ROUGH SURF AND DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH FACING BEACHES OF PR AND THE NORTHERN
USVI. ALSO...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TODAY BETWEEN 6 TO 8
FEET AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND PASSAGES. THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
AND A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE CFWSJU FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 74 86 73 / 20 10 10 10
STT 83 73 83 74 / 20 20 20 20

Shoutbox

northshoreelise: not on the 12z... Oct 10, 2024 12:15:21 GMT -6

lencast: Really would appreciate it. Thank you, Lena Sept 27, 2024 5:20:46 GMT -6

lencast: I am in Jacksonville, and trying to drive back to New Orleans. Does anyone here know if the I-10 is passable in Lake City and Tallahassee. Sept 27, 2024 5:19:03 GMT -6

tcane: This sure looks like it dies quickly. maybe falling apart before metro New Orleans? Just looking at the lat dozen posts and images here. Sept 10, 2024 11:26:27 GMT -6

rebekahb-Metairie: Looks like it but I wait for the better trained eyes on the forum to respond. Sept 9, 2024 18:52:32 GMT -6

jdschlum-bedico/village of bo: Look further east than the 12z plots don’t it Sept 9, 2024 18:49:34 GMT -6

SKYSUMMIT: Oh sorry guys! I didn't eve see these new messages down here lol Jul 26, 2024 13:14:47 GMT -6

jenniqtip: Just as soon as* sry fat finger Jul 7, 2024 12:53:35 GMT -6

jenniqtip: I donate every year. 😀ju sry as soon as the first area of interest pops up!! I rarely post though so the tag isn’t necessary. Just know I appreciate everything you do!! Jul 7, 2024 12:53:12 GMT -6

larcat: SKYSUMMIT You can slap one on me

Jul 7, 2024 12:12:03 GMT -6

SKYSUMMIT: Thanks laismyhome ! Also, if there is anyone who has donated that has not been given the Supporter tag, please let us know. Jul 7, 2024 4:00:50 GMT -6

laismyhome: Here's a friendly reminder to go make a donation to support this forum that is so full of valuable reliable info. Link to donate is on homepage Jul 2, 2024 9:55:24 GMT -6

Deleted: Ernesto gonna mog hard.
I'm voting Alberto, Ernesto, Rafael and Deshawn Apr 1, 2024 19:15:21 GMT -6

SKYSUMMIT: ShanaBanana Yes...just click the link and then send a PM to either TIgergirl or myself. I can then shoot her a text letting her know and I'll add your supporter tag. THANK YOU!!!! Sept 23, 2023 16:08:37 GMT -6

ShanaBanana: At the risk of this being a dumb question. In order to donate, do I follow the instructions when I click “donate”, and then message tigergirl? I see people comment here that they donated, so I wasn’t sure if that had changed. Sept 20, 2023 10:54:40 GMT -6

SKYSUMMIT: Great to have you back! Sept 11, 2023 12:20:30 GMT -6

virginialee: Hi Skysummit: I was part of this back at the beginning. So happy to be back. Sept 8, 2023 5:08:12 GMT -6

SKYSUMMIT: Thanks to everyone who has recently donated! If I missed anyone and you still need a Supporter Tag, let me know. Sept 7, 2023 13:20:10 GMT -6

akeller11: Just donated Sept 6, 2023 11:11:36 GMT -6

SKYSUMMIT: Thanks guys and gals! You're very much appreciated! Aug 30, 2023 11:48:38 GMT -6

Puerto Rico Weather

Post by cycloneye on Jan 6, 2016 4:30:55 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Jan 7, 2016 5:27:32 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Jan 8, 2016 4:00:45 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Jan 9, 2016 4:19:57 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Jan 10, 2016 4:01:24 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Jan 11, 2016 4:57:56 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Jan 12, 2016 5:54:42 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Jan 13, 2016 4:48:11 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Jan 14, 2016 4:04:25 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Jan 16, 2016 7:44:13 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Jan 17, 2016 4:34:51 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Jan 18, 2016 4:06:02 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Jan 19, 2016 4:05:42 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Jan 20, 2016 4:09:30 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Jan 21, 2016 4:03:17 GMT -6

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