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cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Dec 22, 2015 4:15:40 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Dec 22, 2015 4:15:40 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
504 AM AST TUE DEC 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ALTHOUGH TROFINESS ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH MIDWEEK...A MID LEVEL RIDGE
PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
TRADE WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH BRIEF
SHOWERS NOTED ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER...
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RAINFALL ACTIVITY
WERE MINIMAL. WINDS WERE EASTERLY AT 10 MPH OR LESS...AND THE
OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ALONG
COASTAL AREAS.

ALTHOUGH TROFINESS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDWEEK...MID LEVEL RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND HOLD
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BREEZY
CONDITIONS MUCH OF THIS WEEK WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR OR BELOW
NORMAL VALUES. BEST MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
THEREFORE...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGE PATTERN AND ASSOCIATED
CAP INVERSION...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER...TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
FROM TIME TO TIME MUCH OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
WITH BRIEF SHRA CAUSING VCSH AND VERY BRIEF SHRA AT THE STATIONS.
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UNTIL 22/13Z...INCREASING THEREAFTER TO 15-20KT
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS.

&&
.FIRE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH...WINDS AND RH VALUES MAY REACH CRITICAL
LEVELS LATER TODAY...FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW DUE TO
CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE AND FUEL CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
TODAY. SEAS 6 TO 8 FEET WITH OCCASIONAL SEAS UP TO 10 FEET
EXPECTED. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR
MOST OF LOCAL WATERS. SWELL ACTION WILL REACH THE LOCAL WATERS
AND PASSAGES BY FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 86 75 / 40 20 20 50
STT 87 76 87 76 / 30 20 20 50

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Dec 23, 2015 4:30:22 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Dec 23, 2015 4:30:22 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
612 AM AST WED DEC 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ALTHOUGH TROFINESS ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THURSDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE
WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH BRIEF
SHOWERS NOTED ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER...
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RAINFALL ACTIVITY
WERE MINIMAL. WINDS WERE EASTERLY AT 15 MPH OR LESS...AND THE
OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ALONG
COASTAL AREAS.

ALTHOUGH TROFINESS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY...MID LEVEL
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND
HOLD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BREEZY
CONDITIONS MUCH OF THIS WEEK WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR NORMAL
VALUES. BEST MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. THEREFORE...
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGE PATTERN...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND NEAR
NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER...TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME MUCH OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE EAST AT 10-20KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS. BRIEF
SHRA EXPECTED THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA TODAY...CAUSING AT LEAST
VCSH ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUED AT 15-25 KTS EXCEPT
NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN PR. HAZARDOUS WIND GENERATED SEA
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO THE
FAIRLY TIGHT LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG EASTERLY TRAD
WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 75 85 75 / 50 60 70 50
STT 86 76 86 76 / 50 60 60 50

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Dec 24, 2015 4:10:52 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Dec 24, 2015 4:10:52 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
558 AM AST THU DEC 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CENTRAL ATLANTIC
CONTINUES TO BRING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS. THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. A
WEAK UPPER LOW WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
TODAY...STAYING TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA
FROM TIME TO TIME...BRINGING BRIEF SHOWERS TO THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...BRIEF SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...A FEW OF THEM BRIEFLY
AFFECTING LAND AREAS BUT LEAVING LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS. IT
WAS BREEZY OVER THE WATERS AND THE USVI...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA WITH
WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH...HOWEVER THEY WERE LIGHTER ACROSS
MAINLAND PUERTO RICO. THIS GENERAL PATTERN OF BRIEF SHOWERS AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
KEEP THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW...COMBINED WITH THE PATCHES OF
MOISTURE THAT COME IN FROM TIME TO TIME...AND THE BRIEF PASSING
SHOWERS CONTINUE AFFECTING THE LOCAL WATERS AND ISLANDS. NO REALLY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. EVEN AFTER THE SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS AND MOVES
EAST...RELAXING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND
THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES AWAY NEXT WEEK...THE EXPECTED
WEATHER IS STILL VERY SIMILAR...SIMPLY BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS WITH
MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT STORIES AT
THE MOMENT ARE THE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS AND THE HIGH RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...A BAND OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE THE SHOWER
COVERAGE ACROSS THE FLYING AREA IN THE MORNING HOURS. PASSING -SHRA
WILL BE LIKELY IN AND AROUND THE LEEWARD/USVI ISLANDS AND TJSJ
THROUGH 24/15Z. LOW LVL WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST AT 15-25KT
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE HAZARDOUS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 9 FEET OR SO
AND THE WINDS CONTINUING TO BE BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KNOTS. THERE IS
ALSO A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTLINES OF
MAINLAND PUERTO RICO AND ALONG THE COAST OF SAINT CROIX.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 75 85 75 / 60 50 50 40
STT 86 76 86 75 / 50 50 50 40

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Dec 25, 2015 4:35:41 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Dec 25, 2015 4:35:41 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
518 AM AST FRI DEC 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FRESH TO STRONG
TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST...AS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF THE LOCAL REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH
FREQUENT SHOWERS NOTED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...USVI AND EASTERN
PUERTO RICO. WINDS WERE EASTERLY AT 15 MPH OR LESS...AND THE
OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ALONG
COASTAL AREAS.

MID LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD TODAY AND MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR NORMAL VALUES. THEREFORE...UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MID LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE...
BREEZY CONDITIONS AND PATCHES OF MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM TIME TO
TIME...TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS.
HOWEVER...PASSING TRADE WIND SHRA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS THRU THE FCST PERIOD...WITH A FEW OF THEM REACHING FROM TIME
TO TIME THE LEEWARD/USVI/EASTERN PR TERMINALS. SCT LAYERS W/SHRA IS
EXPECTED BLO FL100. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST AT
15-25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT THE SFC AFT 14Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE HAZARDOUS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 9 FEET OR
SO AND THE WINDS CONTINUING TO BE BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS. THERE
IS ALSO A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTLINES
OF MAINLAND PUERTO RICO AND ALONG THE COAST OF SAINT CROIX.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 75 84 75 / 50 40 30 30
STT 85 75 85 75 / 50 30 30 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Dec 26, 2015 4:21:04 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Dec 26, 2015 4:21:04 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
526 AM AST SAT DEC 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AND BRING PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MID LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
DRIER AIR ALOFT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH QUICK PASSING SHOWERS NOTED ACROSS BOTH ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN
WATERS. A FEW OF THEM MOVED OVER THE USVI AND OVER ISOLATED AREAS
OF EASTERN PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL OVER THE NORTHERN USVI WERE
BETWEEN 0.10-0.20 HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. WINDS CONTINUED FROM THE
EAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE
OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ALONG
COASTAL AREAS.

SIMILAR WX CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EACH DAY AND NIGHT...AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE AND MID LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN CONTINUES TO HOLD THRU
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THEREFORE...UNDER TRADE WIND CAP...BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN TRADE
WIND SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. BEST MOISTURE EXPECTED OVER
THE USVI AND WINDWARD AREAS OF PR EACH DAY...WINDS WILL DECREASE
SOMEWHAT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. BUT OVERALL...SAME TRADE WIND SHOWER
PATTERN WILL HOLD.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS ACROSS LOCAL FLYING AREA THROUGH
THE FORECAST PRD. HOWEVER...QUICK PASSING PASSING SHRA/-SHRA IN THE
DOMINANT EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE LOCAL AREA
BTW PR AND NRN LEEWARDS THRU MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPO BKN
CLD LYR AT AROUND FL050-060 AFTER 26/13Z ACROSS TNCM/TKPK/TIST/TISX/TJSJ.
WND WILL INCREASE TO 10-20 KTS FROM THE EAST AFTER 26/13Z WITH
GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE HAZARDOUS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT LEAST THRU SUNDAY. HIGHEST SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 6
TO 8 FEET NEARSHORE AND UP TO 10 FEET OFFSHORE...EXCEPT ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS FROM RINCON TO CABO ROJO AS THOSE WATERS ARE
PROTECTED FROM THE TRADE WIND GENERATED SEAS. ALSO...A MODERATE
TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
AND EAST BEACHES OF PUERTO RICO AND ST. CROIX.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 75 85 75 / 30 30 30 30
STT 85 75 85 75 / 30 30 30 40

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Dec 27, 2015 4:28:26 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Dec 27, 2015 4:28:26 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
440 AM AST SUN DEC 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL DOMINATE THE
ATLANTIC WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND
BRING PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MID LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP DRIER AIR ALOFT DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH FREQUENT PASSING SHOWERS NOTED ACROSS BOTH ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN WATERS. A FEW OF THEM MOVED OVER THE USVI AND OVER
AREAS OF THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO...BUT MAINLY BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. RAIN GAGES ACROSS THESE AREAS REPORTED BETWEEN
0.05-0.25 HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AS SHOWERS STREAMED OVER THE SAME
AREAS. WINDS OVER LAND AREAS CONTINUED FROM THE EAST AT 5 TO 15
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR SHOWERS. THE OVERNIGHT MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ALONG COASTAL AREAS.

SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY/NIGHT...AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND MID LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN CONTINUES TO
HOLD THRU MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. UNDER TRADE WIND CAP...BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN TRADE
WIND SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. BEST MOISTURE EXPECTED OVER
THE USVI AND WINDWARD AREAS OF PR...WINDS WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE STRONG EASTERLY TRADE
WILL EXIT THE LOCAL FLYING AREA BY 27/12Z. PASSING SHRA... BRIEF SFC
WND GUSTS W/PASSING SHRA TIL AT LEAST 27/12Z. THE DOMINANT E-NE
L/LVL TRADE WILL FLOW WILL PREVAIL THRU ENTIRE FCST PRD. WNDS
DIMINISHING FROM EAST TO WEST OVRNGHT...RECVRNG AT ALL SITES...10 TO
15 KTS AFT 27/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES OF PR AND ST. CROIX AS STRONG CURRENTS ARE
LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS UP TO 10 FEET OFFSHORE
AND UP TO 8 FEET NEARSHORE. BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH EAST
WINDS AT 15-20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 86 75 / 40 30 30 30
STT 84 74 85 75 / 40 40 40 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Dec 28, 2015 4:24:14 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Dec 28, 2015 4:24:14 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
540 AM AST MON DEC 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE ATLANTIC
WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND BRING
PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MID
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP DRIER AIR ALOFT DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH PASSING SHOWERS NOTED ACROSS BOTH ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN
WATERS. A FEW OF THEM MOVED OVER THE USVI AND OVER AREAS OF THE
EAST AND SOUTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO. RAIN GAGES ACROSS THESE
AREAS REPORTED BETWEEN JUST UNDER 0.10 HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
WINDS OVER LAND AREAS WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...HOWEVER OVER THE
WATERS IT CONTINUED FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS NEAR SHOWERS. THE OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE
LOW 70S ALONG COASTAL AREAS.

SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY/NIGHT...AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND MID LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN CONTINUES TO
HOLD THRU MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. UNDER TRADE WIND CAP...BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN TRADE
WIND SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. BEST MOISTURE EXPECTED OVER
THE USVI AND WINDWARD AREAS OF PR...WINDS WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT
TODAY AND TOMORROW BUT WILL INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE
THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS CAUSING PDS OF MVFR
DUE TO CIGS WILL SPREAD OVER THE USVI BY 28/10Z WITH BRIEF MVFR
AND OVER ERN PR BY 28/12Z. THIS WILL BRING AREAS OF MVFR AND MTN
OBSCURATIONS TO ERN PR TIL 28/15Z...THOUGH TJSJ WILL LIKELY
REMAIN VFR AS WILL OTHER TAF SITES IN PR. WINDS EASTERLY 10-20
KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THRU FL130. THEN WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT UP TO
FL300.

&&

.MARINE...BUOYS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS
ARE INDICATING SEAS BETWEEN 4 TO NEAR 6 FEET AND EAST WINDS AT
10-20 KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE IN EFFECT THRU
AT LEAST THIS EVENING AS SEAS UP TO 7 FEET ARE STILL EXPECTED
MAINLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. ALTHOUGH WINDS AND
SEAS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT THRU TUESDAY THEY WILL
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY...KEEPING CHOPPY/ROUGH
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 75 87 75 / 30 40 40 40
STT 84 75 85 75 / 30 40 40 60

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Dec 29, 2015 4:34:18 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Dec 29, 2015 4:34:18 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
519 AM AST TUE DEC 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL MAINTAIN DRIER AIR ALOFT DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TRADE WIND SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST THRU THE FCST PERIOD WITH BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
ACROSS THE USVI/EASTERN HALF OF PR EACH DAY. SURFACE HIGH WILL
MAINTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH PASSING SHOWERS NOTED MAINLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN WATERS. A FEW OF THEM MOVED OVER THE USVI AND OVER THE
EASTERN INTERIOR AND SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO. HIGHEST
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS REPORTED BY RAIN GAGES ACROSS THESE AREAS
WERE BETWEEN 0.10 TO 0.30 OF AN INCH. THE LAND BREEZE KEPT LIGHT
WINDS OVER THE ISLANDS...HOWEVER OVER THE WATERS THE WIND WAS
MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THE OVERNIGHT MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ALONG COASTAL AREAS.

SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY/NIGHT...AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND MID LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN CONTINUES TO
HOLD THRU MUCH OF THE WEEK. UNDER TRADE WIND CAP INVERSION...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN TRADE WIND SHOWERS
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. BEST MOISTURE IS EXPECTED OVER THE USVI AND
EASTERN HALF OF PR...WITH SHALLOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE ISLAND IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BREEZY
EASTERLIES WILL CONTINUE AROUND 10-20 MPH BUT LOCALLY HIGHER
WINDS UP TO 25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF
NORTHWESTERN PR BY MID DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR ENTIRE PRD AT ALL LOCAL TERMINALS.
HOWEVER BRIEF PASSING -SHRA/SHRA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS AND EN ROUTE BTW ISLANDS TIL AT LEAST 29/14Z. SCT-BKN CLD
LYRS...FL022...060...080. BRIEF MVFR DUE TO LOW CLDS AND SHRA WITH
BRIEF MTN TOP OBSCR OVR ERN PR TIL 28/14Z. SFC WND LGT/VRB AT ALL
TAF SITE OVRNGHT TIL 29/12Z...EXCEPT HIGHER WITH PASSING SHRA. SFC
WND INCRSNG AFT 29/12...FM E-SE 10-20 KTS WITH LOCAL GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS
MUCH OF THE LOCAL WATERS AS SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND EAST WINDS
AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...SEAS WILL INCREASE OFFSHORE
UP TO 7 FEET BY WEDNESDAY AS TRADE WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND HOLD THRU AT LEAST THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 86 75 / 30 40 50 30
STT 85 75 85 75 / 40 60 60 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Dec 30, 2015 4:23:12 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Dec 30, 2015 4:23:12 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
604 AM AST WED DEC 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN
UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND GOOD CAP INVERSION WHICH WILL LIMIT AND
SUPPRESS ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND JUST NORTHEAST
OF THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS IN TURN WILL HELP
MAINTAIN A FAIRLY TIGHT LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND PROMOTE MODERATE
TO FAIRLY STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND COASTAL
WATERS. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER
RADAR SHOWED A SURGE OF SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE EASTERLY TRADES CROSSING
THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS AND QUICKLY STREAMING TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS
SURROUNDING THE ISLANDS...AS THEY QUICKLY MOVED WESTWARDS CARRIED
BY THE DOMINANT TRADE WINDS. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS SO FAR HAVE BEEN
INSIGNIFICANT... ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS PRODUCED PERIODS OF MODERATE
TO LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AS THEY QUICKLY STREAMED ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS SURGE OF SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL BRING VARIABLY CLOUDY
SKIES TO THE REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT A GRADUAL
CLEARING OF CLOUD COVER CAN BE EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

DURING THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE PREVAILING EASTERLIES TO HELP PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT FORCING AND LIFT TO TRIGGER SOME STREAMER LIKE SHALLOW CONVECTION
ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS. ANY RAINFALL HOWEVER IS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE BRIEF WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS AND MOSTLY OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
INTENSITY AS THEY PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AFTERNOON SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FOCUSED MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN PUERTO
RICO AND PARTS OF THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO WITH LESSER
OR NO SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE ISLANDS.

LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... WITH A SIMILAR WEATHER
PATTERN OF QUICK PASSING TRADE WIND SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER SKIES DURING THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...QUICK PASSING SHRA ARE
EXPECTED...WHICH WILL LIKELY CAUSE VCSH ACROSS TNCM...TKPK...
TISX...TIST AND TJSJ. AFTER 30/18...VCSH COULD BE OBSERVED ALSO
ACROSS TJBQ AND TJMZ AS WELL. BRIEF SHRA ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE FLYING AREA BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS AFTER 30/13Z WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE... SEAS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND PASSAGES
TODAY AS THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS INCREASE AND HOLD THRU THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. BEGINNING TODAY AND OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT DUE TO ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS SEAS
CREATED BY THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS. PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST AND MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN PR FOR ADDITIONAL
INFO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 74 85 75 / 60 30 30 30
STT 86 76 85 76 / 60 30 30 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Dec 31, 2015 4:54:31 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Dec 31, 2015 4:54:31 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
547 AM AST THU DEC 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PATTERN WILL
HOLD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...BUT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
BY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND PROMOTE A MODERATE
TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION AT LEAST FOR ANOTHER
DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE IS TO THEN SHIFT FARTHER EAST AND
LOOSEN THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTING IN DIMINISHING EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS BY LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TYPICAL SEASONAL WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH PASSING TRADE WIND SHOWERS AFFECTING
THE COASTAL WATERS AND PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS MAINLY DURING THE
EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH LIMITED AFTERNOON SHOWER
ACTIVITY. AN OVERALL FAIR AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH NEW YEAR`S DAY...AS A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS AND LIMIT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OF SHORT DURATION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
OVER PARTS OF THE ISLANDS.
AT THIS TIME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURE
IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER
BY THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS FORECAST AS THE RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT WILL ERODE...AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WEAKENS NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER
SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND LOCALLY INDUCED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA. HOWEVER...QUICK PASSING SHRA ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOCAL TAF SITES TODAY...WHICH WILL CAUSE VCSH ACROSS MOST OF OUR
LOCAL TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TJMZ AND TJBQ DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. AFTER 31/18Z...VCSH COULD BE OBSERVED AT TJMZ AND
TJBQ AS WELL. THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF SHRA AT THE TERMINALS BUT
THESE ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF. WINDS FROM THE EAST AT AROUND 10-
15KT EARLY THIS MORNING...INCREASING TO 15-20KT WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS AFTER 31/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN CHOPPY AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST AND MARINE WEATHER
MESSAGE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN PR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 75 86 74 / 50 50 20 30
STT 84 75 85 74 / 60 50 20 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Jan 1, 2016 4:46:19 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Jan 1, 2016 4:46:19 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
455 AM AST FRI JAN 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL HOLD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
TODAY AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY LIFT FARTHER
EAST NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TODAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY LOOSEN THE LOCAL SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THUS
WEAKEN THE PREVAILING EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. IN THE MEANTIME THE
MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL TODAY AND
BRING PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE AND PASSING SHOWERS TO THE
REGION. THE FREQUENCY OF THESE PASSING SHOWERS WILL HOWEVER
DIMINISH ALSO AS THE TRADE WINDS DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

DISCUSSION...PASSING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND TRADE WIND SHOWERS
CONTINUED TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS AND PARTS OF THE ISLANDS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME SHOWERS BROUGHT
GUSTY WINDS AND PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN
ISOLATED AREAS. SO FAR NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE
REPORTED...AS MOST OF THE SHOWERS WERE FAST MOVING AND OF SHORT
DURATION. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUDINESS TO DIMINISH BY
LATE MORNING...LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING
THE REST OF THE DAY.

DURING THE AFTERNOON...LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS MAY LEAD TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH LIMITED OR NO SHOWER ACTIVITY
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SEASONAL WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...WITH FEWER PASSING TRADE
WIND SHOWERS AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS AND PORTIONS OF THE
ISLANDS DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. DURING THE
AFTERNOONS...LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST AS OVERALL FAIR
AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST. THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
LEVEL RIDGE WILL ERODE BUT WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO SUPPRESS
AND LIMIT SIGNIFICANT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS OF SHORT DURATION WILL HOWEVER REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER PARTS
OF THE ISLANDS.

BY THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS FORECAST AS THE RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT WILL ERODE...AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LOCALLY INDUCED SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.AVIATION....MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA. HOWEVER...VCSH EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
TAF SITES INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS. AFTER 01/14Z AN AREA OF DRIER
AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...LIMITING THE SHOWERS ACTIVITY OVER
THE LOCAL REGION. CURRENTLY...WINDS FROM THE EAST AT AROUND 10-15
KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS. LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED AN
EASTERLY WIND FLOW UP TO 30 KNOTS ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO
AROUND 30K FEET...BECOMING WESTERLY ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE...BOTH OBSERVATIONS FROM THE SURROUNDING BUOYS AND MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT WAVE HEIGHTS HAVE PEAKED OVERNIGHT AND WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND
AS THE PREVAILING TRADE WINDS WILL DIMINISH. IN THE MEANTIME SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN AFFECT FOR ALL OF THE ATLANTIC...
LOCAL PASSAGES AND OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN WATER. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION ELSEWHERE DUE TO THE CHOPPY AND STILL HAZARDOUS
WIND DRIVEN SEAS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
AND MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WFO SAN JUAN PR FOR ADDITIONAL MARINE INFO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 73 87 74 / 20 30 30 20
STT 85 74 84 75 / 20 30 30 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Jan 2, 2016 4:08:48 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Jan 2, 2016 4:08:48 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
406 AM AST SAT JAN 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE BY MID NEXT WEEK AS THE MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKENS. STRONG SURFACE
HIGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL LOOSEN THE LOCAL SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WEAKEN THE PREVAILING TRADE WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS. DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS
MOVING WEST NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SURROUNDING WATERS WITH FEW
OF THEM AFFECTING THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. HOWEVER...TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WAS GENERALLY MINIMAL. A
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT SMALL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL LEVEL MOISTURE
EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. HOWEVER...AS THE
SURFACE HIGH CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH...WEAKENING THE
TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW ONLY SHALLOW MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. AS THE RIDGE CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY WEAKENS...MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY MID WEEK
NEXT WEEK AS THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE ERODE. HOWEVER...AT THIS
TIME...NOT WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...HOWEVER ISOLD PASSING SHRA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA AND WINDWARD AREAS OF PR AND THE USVI FROM TIME TO
TIME. SCT-BKN CLD LYRS FL020...060...FEW TCU....ISOLD TOPS NR FL100.
MTN TOPS OBSCR PSBL TIL 02/12Z DUE TO PASSING SHRA/LOW SCUD CLDS...
PSBL BR OVR ERN INTERIOR OF PR. WND FM E 15-25 KTS BLO FL250. LGT
SFC WND MAINLY FM E-SE 5-10 KTS...THEN INCR 10-15 KTS OCNL HIGHER
GUSTS AT TAF SITES AND WITH LCL SEA BREEZES AFT IN 02/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A DOWNWARD TREND IN
WAVE HEIGHTS AND ALSO A SLIGHT DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS. HOWEVER
SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO CONTINUE EXERCISE CAUTION

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 73 86 74 / 30 20 20 20
STT 85 74 83 74 / 30 20 20 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Jan 3, 2016 4:46:04 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Jan 3, 2016 4:46:04 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
605 AM AST SUN JAN 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKENS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
INCREASE THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS.
DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING WEST
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SURROUNDING WATERS. HOWEVER...NOT
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED OVER LAND AREAS OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY THIS MORNING.

A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT SMALL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL LEVEL MOISTURE
EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TODAY...PUSHING
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EASTWARD. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...WEAKENING THE
TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW
ONLY SHALLOW MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AND MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION BY MID WEEK...ERODING THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. AS THE RIDGE CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ERODE...
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY MID
WEEK NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...NOT WIDESPREAD OR
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...SHRA IN ESE TRADES WILL RESULT IN
BRIEF PERIODS OF ISOLATED PASSING SHRA ACROSS THE USVI/LEEWARD
TERMINALS AND EASTERN PR TERMINALS THRU THE FCST PERIOD...
RESULTING MAINLY IN VCSH AND POSSIBLE -RA. SFC WINDS THIS MORNING
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE ESE AT 10-20 KTS.

&&

.MARINE....WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO
3-5 FEET OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION MAINLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATER
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 73 87 73 / 20 20 20 30
STT 85 74 84 74 / 20 20 20 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Jan 4, 2016 4:28:59 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Jan 4, 2016 4:28:59 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
519 AM AST MON JAN 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY BEFORE A BROAD RIDGE BUILDS OVER CARIBBEAN FROM SOUTH
AMERICA OVER THE WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MID LEVELS HAVE MODEST PATCHY MOISTURE DURING THE WEEK...THEN DRY
OUT OVER THE WEEKEND.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS
DRIVING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS. AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENS...A LOW WILL FORM OVER THE BAHAMAS MID WEEK AND MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...CAUSING THE GRADIENTS TO WEAKEN AND TRADE
WINDS TO SLOW BY THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL RECOVER SOME BY
MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. PATCHY MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH THE PASSAGE OF A VERY WEAK OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
POSSIBLE MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS DAMPENED MOST OF EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND
PARTS OF SAINT CROIX AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AS
MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS BRING QUICK PASSING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA. EASTERN PUERTO RICO WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE BEST
ACTIVITY WITH ONLY SLIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. BUT
EVEN ON THE EASTERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO NO MORE THAN ONE QUARTER
INCH IS EXPECTED ON ANY GIVEN DAY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH...BUT THE EAST SOUTHEASTERLY SHOWER PATTERN WILL CHANGE
ONLY A LITTLE...AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO WILL CONTINUE TO RECEIVE
MOST OF THE SHOWERS WITH ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. SURFACE WINDS
WILL DECREASE CONSIDERABLY BY THE END OF THE WEEK WHEN LOW
PRESSURE GREATLY REDUCES THE NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT OVER THE
AREA. AT THAT TIME MANY AREAS WILL FIND LAND AND SEA BREEZES
PREDOMINATE. WINDS INCREASE SOMEWHAT MID WEEK NEXT WEEK AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS SUPPOSED TO INCREASE WHEN AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES...BUT NOT ALL MODELS AGREE. EXPECT THAT
WESTERN PUERTO RICO WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS
WITH A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS FORMING IN THE CONVERGENT WINDS NEAR
THE WESTERN SHORES.

&&

.AVIATION...OCCASIONAL PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF PR AND THE SURROUNDING WATERS OF THE USVI TODAY.
THIS COULD RESULT IN POSSIBLE -RA AT TIMES ACROSS TISX/TIST/TJSJ
/TJPS AND MTN TOP OBSCD OVER EASTERN PR. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY VFR
CONDS EXPECTED. AFTER 04/18Z...MTN TOP OBSC IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR WITH BRIEF SHRA IN/NEAR TJMZ/TJBQ. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS...INCREASING FM THE E-ESE AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER
04/13Z WITH SEA BREEZE AND GUSTY CONDITIONS IN THE VICINITY OF
SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS DIMINISH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN...ALTHOUGH
A NORTHWEST THEN NORTH SWELL OF UP TO 5 FEET IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
AT THE OUTER BUOY ON THURSDAY AND IN THE OUTER ATLANTIC WATERS
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE 7 TO 8 FOOT SEAS OCCURRING AT THE OUTER BUOY
WILL BE LESS THAN 7 FEET IN THE LOCAL WATERS. THIS WILL ALSO
COINCIDE WITH A DECREASE IN WINDS AND WIND WAVES TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK. SOME SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF MORE THAN 20
KNOTS IN THE LOCAL WATERS THIS WEEK. BUT ALL WINDS DIMINISH BY
FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 73 86 74 / 40 20 40 50
STT 84 74 83 74 / 50 30 30 50

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Jan 5, 2016 4:23:39 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Jan 5, 2016 4:23:39 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
549 AM AST TUE JAN 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...SEVERAL WEAK TROUGHS WILL MOVE
THROUGH TODAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN FROM SOUTH AMERICA.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN
TO FADE LATER THIS WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE
CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE OVER THE LOCAL AREA NEXT
WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL WEAKEN AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. A WEAK LOW OVER CUBA TODAY AND
TOMORROW WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
WILL BE AROUND 900 NM NORTH NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN ON
FRIDAY...CAUSING GRADIENTS AND WINDS TO DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RECOVER TO CURRENT SPEEDS BY THE FOLLOWING
THURSDAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH DURING THE SAME TIME PERIOD
AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL SLACKEN OFF.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE IN SOUTHEAST FLOW IS BEING CARRIED INTO THE
LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS CAUSING SHALLOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. SCATTERED AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 1 TO 2 INCHES WERE MEASURED BY RADAR IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PART OF OUR LOCAL WATERS...BUT RAIN AMOUNTS DECREASED AS ONE MOVED
NORTH AND LITTLE OR NO RAIN HAD FALLEN OVERNIGHT IN PUERTO RICO
OR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AS OF 5 AM. THE MIMIC PRODUCT SHOWED A
DRAMATIC INCREASE IN MOISTURE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWEST TOWARD SAINT
CROIX AND IT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THERE THIS MORNING AND IN
PUERTO RICO LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE 05/00Z RUN OF THE GFS DID
NOT SHOW THE BOUNDARY OR THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO AIR
MASSES AS DID THE MIMIC...ALTHOUGH THE NMM RUNS DID SHOW
INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE 05/06Z GFS
RUN IS SHOWING MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY. THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED POPS
DURING THE DAY TO SHOW BETTER SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
GFS SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE 1.5 INCHES FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND HENCE EXPECT OUR TYPICAL
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING DURING THIS TIME...SOME AREAS WILL RECEIVE BETTER
AMOUNTS THAN THE QUICK PASSING SHOWER WERE PREVIOUSLY ABLE TO
DELIVER. NEVERTHELESS THE AIR MASS IS SHALLOW AND WOULD NOT EXPECT
FLOODING EXCEPT WHERE NORMAL DRAINAGE IS BLOCKED. HIGHER PRESSURE
AT UPPER LEVELS BUILDING IN OVER THE WEEKEND AND DRIER AIR
LOWERING TO AS LOW AS 800 MB AND DEEPENING TO 300 MB WILL LOWER
FREQUENCY...INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE FCST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SHRA INCREASING ACROSS THE LEEWARD...AND WINDWARD SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI DURING THE MORNING HOURS...THEN
SPREADING OVER NORTH/WESTERN PR AFTER 18Z. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND
MTN TOP OBSCURATIONS OVER MAINLAND PR IS LIKELY W/SHRA. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING...INCREASING FM THE ESE AROUND
10 KNOTS AFTER 13Z WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AND GUSTY IN/NEAR
SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT SEAS PICK UP CONSIDERABLY ON THURSDAY...WITH UP TO
8 FOOT SEAS AT THE OUTER BUOY 41043 DUE TO A NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL
AND WIND WAVES FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST. 6
TO 7 FEET SEAS ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN THE LOCAL OUTER ATLANTIC
WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FROM MUCH THE SAME SOURCES. SEAS IN
THE CARIBBEAN SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 7 FEET FOR THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS
AS LOCAL WIND GENERATION WILL BE LIMITED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 73 86 75 / 50 70 40 40
STT 79 75 79 74 / 30 70 50 40

Shoutbox

northshoreelise: not on the 12z... Oct 10, 2024 12:15:21 GMT -6

lencast: Really would appreciate it. Thank you, Lena Sept 27, 2024 5:20:46 GMT -6

lencast: I am in Jacksonville, and trying to drive back to New Orleans. Does anyone here know if the I-10 is passable in Lake City and Tallahassee. Sept 27, 2024 5:19:03 GMT -6

tcane: This sure looks like it dies quickly. maybe falling apart before metro New Orleans? Just looking at the lat dozen posts and images here. Sept 10, 2024 11:26:27 GMT -6

rebekahb-Metairie: Looks like it but I wait for the better trained eyes on the forum to respond. Sept 9, 2024 18:52:32 GMT -6

jdschlum-bedico/village of bo: Look further east than the 12z plots don’t it Sept 9, 2024 18:49:34 GMT -6

SKYSUMMIT: Oh sorry guys! I didn't eve see these new messages down here lol Jul 26, 2024 13:14:47 GMT -6

jenniqtip: Just as soon as* sry fat finger Jul 7, 2024 12:53:35 GMT -6

jenniqtip: I donate every year. 😀ju sry as soon as the first area of interest pops up!! I rarely post though so the tag isn’t necessary. Just know I appreciate everything you do!! Jul 7, 2024 12:53:12 GMT -6

larcat: SKYSUMMIT You can slap one on me

Jul 7, 2024 12:12:03 GMT -6

SKYSUMMIT: Thanks laismyhome ! Also, if there is anyone who has donated that has not been given the Supporter tag, please let us know. Jul 7, 2024 4:00:50 GMT -6

laismyhome: Here's a friendly reminder to go make a donation to support this forum that is so full of valuable reliable info. Link to donate is on homepage Jul 2, 2024 9:55:24 GMT -6

Deleted: Ernesto gonna mog hard.
I'm voting Alberto, Ernesto, Rafael and Deshawn Apr 1, 2024 19:15:21 GMT -6

SKYSUMMIT: ShanaBanana Yes...just click the link and then send a PM to either TIgergirl or myself. I can then shoot her a text letting her know and I'll add your supporter tag. THANK YOU!!!! Sept 23, 2023 16:08:37 GMT -6

ShanaBanana: At the risk of this being a dumb question. In order to donate, do I follow the instructions when I click “donate”, and then message tigergirl? I see people comment here that they donated, so I wasn’t sure if that had changed. Sept 20, 2023 10:54:40 GMT -6

SKYSUMMIT: Great to have you back! Sept 11, 2023 12:20:30 GMT -6

virginialee: Hi Skysummit: I was part of this back at the beginning. So happy to be back. Sept 8, 2023 5:08:12 GMT -6

SKYSUMMIT: Thanks to everyone who has recently donated! If I missed anyone and you still need a Supporter Tag, let me know. Sept 7, 2023 13:20:10 GMT -6

akeller11: Just donated Sept 6, 2023 11:11:36 GMT -6

SKYSUMMIT: Thanks guys and gals! You're very much appreciated! Aug 30, 2023 11:48:38 GMT -6

Puerto Rico Weather

Post by cycloneye on Dec 22, 2015 4:15:40 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Dec 23, 2015 4:30:22 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Dec 24, 2015 4:10:52 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Dec 25, 2015 4:35:41 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Dec 26, 2015 4:21:04 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Dec 27, 2015 4:28:26 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Dec 28, 2015 4:24:14 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Dec 29, 2015 4:34:18 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Dec 30, 2015 4:23:12 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Dec 31, 2015 4:54:31 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Jan 1, 2016 4:46:19 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Jan 2, 2016 4:08:48 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Jan 3, 2016 4:46:04 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Jan 4, 2016 4:28:59 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Jan 5, 2016 4:23:39 GMT -6

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