Post by cycloneye on Apr 7, 2016 4:53:41 GMT -6
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
611 AM AST THU APR 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH PASSED MAINLY TO THE
NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. BY SATURDAY
A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. A TROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY
A MODERATE JET WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND NOT
EXIT UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE WILL FORM OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
UNTIL MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY AND LINGER UNTIL THURSDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BE
PRESENT THURSDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. OTHERWISE MID
LEVELS ARE VERY DRY.
AT LOWER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND BUILD OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC WHILE A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. WEAK RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE BAHAMAS. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY. MODERATE TRADE WIND
FLOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST GFS
SHOWS TROUGHINESS DEEPENING OVER THE AREA MID WEEK NEXT WEEK AND A
LOW FORMING TO THE NORTH.
&&
.DISCUSSION...NORTHEAST TO EAST NORTHEAST FLOW HAS BROUGHT SHOWERS
AND UP TO ONE QUARTER INCH OF RAIN TO THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO
RICO. MORE RAIN ALSO FELL OVER THE EASTERN TIP OF THE ISLAND. ONLY
TRACES WERE SEEN IN SAINT THOMAS AND SAINT JOHN. MOISTURE PEAKS
TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES PAST THE AREA AND MOISTURE LESSENS
SOMEWHAT ON FRIDAY. WHEN MID LEVELS MOISTEN ON MONDAY AND THE
INVERSION AT THE BOTTOM OF THE MID LEVELS DISSIPATES...SHOWERS
WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE FREQUENT. OTHERWISE MOSTLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL BE SEEN FROM THE SHALLOW MARINE LAYER. ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MOISTURE DEEPENS AND THERE ARE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS FROM
AN UPPER LEVEL JET THAT SHOULD GENERATE AT LEAST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO.
ALTHOUGH THE GFS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE FORMING ONLY A FEW HUNDRED
MILES NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AS EARLY AS TUESDAY HAVE LOW
CONFIDENCE THAT THIS SCENARIO WILL PLAY OUT EXACTLY AS
DEPICTED...BUT THIS COULD WAFT VERY MOIST AIR OVER THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHEAST JUST BEYOND 240 HOURS AFTER THE LOW LEAVES.
&&
.AVIATION...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC...SHRA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FLYING AREA TODAY. SOME
SHRA WILL IMPACT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS OF
TJSJ/TIST/TISX/TNCM/TKPK WITH VCSH AND POSSIBLE -RA AT TIMES. AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE SHRA OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS
OF PR AFFECTING TJBQ/TJMZ AFT 07/15Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS VEERING TO THE
E-ESE AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFTER 07/13Z.
&&
.MARINE...A 4 TO 5 FOOT SWELL IS STILL EXPECTED BEGINNING TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW IN THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PUSH SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC
BACK INTO THE 4 TO 6 FOOT RANGE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SEAS THAT
ARRIVE WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER...BUT HAVE GONE WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST UNTIL THE OUTER BUOY GIVES INDICATIONS THAT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MIGHT BE NEEDED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 75 89 75 / 50 30 30 20
STT 85 76 86 75 / 40 30 20 30
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
611 AM AST THU APR 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH PASSED MAINLY TO THE
NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. BY SATURDAY
A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. A TROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY
A MODERATE JET WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND NOT
EXIT UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE WILL FORM OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
UNTIL MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY AND LINGER UNTIL THURSDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BE
PRESENT THURSDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. OTHERWISE MID
LEVELS ARE VERY DRY.
AT LOWER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND BUILD OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC WHILE A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. WEAK RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE BAHAMAS. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY. MODERATE TRADE WIND
FLOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST GFS
SHOWS TROUGHINESS DEEPENING OVER THE AREA MID WEEK NEXT WEEK AND A
LOW FORMING TO THE NORTH.
&&
.DISCUSSION...NORTHEAST TO EAST NORTHEAST FLOW HAS BROUGHT SHOWERS
AND UP TO ONE QUARTER INCH OF RAIN TO THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO
RICO. MORE RAIN ALSO FELL OVER THE EASTERN TIP OF THE ISLAND. ONLY
TRACES WERE SEEN IN SAINT THOMAS AND SAINT JOHN. MOISTURE PEAKS
TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES PAST THE AREA AND MOISTURE LESSENS
SOMEWHAT ON FRIDAY. WHEN MID LEVELS MOISTEN ON MONDAY AND THE
INVERSION AT THE BOTTOM OF THE MID LEVELS DISSIPATES...SHOWERS
WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE FREQUENT. OTHERWISE MOSTLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL BE SEEN FROM THE SHALLOW MARINE LAYER. ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MOISTURE DEEPENS AND THERE ARE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS FROM
AN UPPER LEVEL JET THAT SHOULD GENERATE AT LEAST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO.
ALTHOUGH THE GFS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE FORMING ONLY A FEW HUNDRED
MILES NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AS EARLY AS TUESDAY HAVE LOW
CONFIDENCE THAT THIS SCENARIO WILL PLAY OUT EXACTLY AS
DEPICTED...BUT THIS COULD WAFT VERY MOIST AIR OVER THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHEAST JUST BEYOND 240 HOURS AFTER THE LOW LEAVES.
&&
.AVIATION...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC...SHRA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FLYING AREA TODAY. SOME
SHRA WILL IMPACT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS OF
TJSJ/TIST/TISX/TNCM/TKPK WITH VCSH AND POSSIBLE -RA AT TIMES. AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE SHRA OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS
OF PR AFFECTING TJBQ/TJMZ AFT 07/15Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS VEERING TO THE
E-ESE AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFTER 07/13Z.
&&
.MARINE...A 4 TO 5 FOOT SWELL IS STILL EXPECTED BEGINNING TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW IN THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PUSH SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC
BACK INTO THE 4 TO 6 FOOT RANGE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SEAS THAT
ARRIVE WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER...BUT HAVE GONE WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST UNTIL THE OUTER BUOY GIVES INDICATIONS THAT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MIGHT BE NEEDED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 75 89 75 / 50 30 30 20
STT 85 76 86 75 / 40 30 20 30