Puerto Rico Weather

NEW

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Apr 24, 2016 3:59:46 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Apr 24, 2016 3:59:46 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
517 AM AST SUN APR 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AS MOVES INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. A LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS RELAXING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...RESULTING
IN LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO. DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS MOST OF
THE ISLANDS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN...MOIST AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS RETURNS TO THE REGION BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAIN IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS
NEAR 20 NORTH. CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
SINCE YESTERDAY AS DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS HAS FILTERED FROM
THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HOT TEMPERATURES BETWEEN
85-90 WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY. LOCAL EFFECT SUCH
AS SEA BREEZES AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL AID TO PRODUCE CONVECTION
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY. SIMILAR
PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON MONDAY. THEN...
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A THICK LAYER OF MID-UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS ON TUESDAY.

NEXT ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY BY THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK. AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IN THE UPPER LEVELS CROSSES THE
LOCAL REGION BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.
HOWEVER...BETWEEN 16Z-22Z TSRA/SHRA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PR...CREATING AT LEAST MVFR
PERIODS AT TJSJ/TJBQ. SCT/BKN LAYERS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE ATLC WATERS AND TIST DUE TO SHRA. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE
FROM THE SOUTH AT 10-15 KT WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT NORTHERN PR
TERMINALS AFTER 14Z.

&&

.MARINE...NORTH SWELL OF 4-6 FEET WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE ACROSS
THE ISLANDS TODAY. THEN...SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 2-4 FEET
THROUGH TUESDAY. THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS FOR THE EXPOSED BEACHES ALONG NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST
PUERTO RICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 90 77 / 50 30 30 10
STT 86 80 85 77 / 10 30 20 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Apr 25, 2016 4:18:37 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Apr 25, 2016 4:18:37 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
526 AM AST MON APR 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD MID TO UPPER TROUGH JUST NORTH OF THE REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FARTHER EAST OF THE REGION TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE AND
MOISTURE REMNANTS FROM AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...A LINE OF SHOWERS CONTINUED TO FORM
ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVERGENCE ZONE AND SLOWLY MOVE ONSHORE
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS ACROSS THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY PRODUCED PERIODS OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS THESE AREAS. RAINFALL SO FAR
WAS OF SHORT DURATION WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. THIS ADDED
MOISTURE ALONG WITH ALREADY AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION
WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF LOCALLY AND DIURNALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO
RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS OVER THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS. EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE ISLANDS
TODAY.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES THE REGION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE
IS STILL EXPECTED TO POOL ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ALONG WITH THE
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL AGAIN INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
ENHANCED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE ISLANDS DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS FAIRLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS
THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

PREVIOUS NAAPS AEROSOL ANALYSIS PRODUCT AS WELL AS SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUED TO SUGGEST SUSPENDED SAHARAN DUST PARTICULATES ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION DUE TO COMBINATION
OF THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW...AND MODERATE MID LEVEL
WESTERLIES. THE EXPECTED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION WILL HOWEVER
LESSEN THE EFFECTS OF THE DUST CONCENTRATION.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA. -SHRA POSSIBLE AT TJMZ AND TJPS AS SHRA
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY
THIS MORNING INCREASING SLIGHTLY AFTER 25/14Z BUT WILL CONTINUE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES. CLOUDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TODAY...
GRADUALLY CAUSING CIGS AT AROUND FL080. SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS
CENTRAL PR AFTER 25/16Z...COULD CAUSE VCTS AT TJSJ.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE DAY DUE TO THE
SUBSIDING NORTHERLY SWELL AND OVERALL LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS. THE
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TO BE REDUCED TO MODERATE BY
6 AM AST THIS MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 88 76 / 30 20 20 20
STT 87 78 85 78 / 10 20 20 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Apr 26, 2016 4:01:13 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Apr 26, 2016 4:01:13 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
421 AM AST TUE APR 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS....
BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND LOCAL REGION THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY INDUCED LOW LEVEL TROUGHINESS
AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A SHORT
WAVE MOVED ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS BUT WILL BE
QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL HELP MAINTAIN UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE REGION. MOISTURE ALONG A SLOWLY DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL CONTINUE TO POOL ACROSS THE REGION DURING MOST OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF NOCTURNAL AND DAYTIME CONVECTION
ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE TROUGH COMBINED WITH POOLING OF DEEP MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. SOIL ACROSS THE ISLANDS REMAIN VERY SATURATED
ESPECIALLY ACROSS PUERTO RICO. THEREFORE ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
WILL WORSEN THE SITUATION AND LEAD TO FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE ALONG WITH MINOR FLOODING OF RIVERS AND
STREAMS. IN ADDITION...RECENT RAINS FROM PREVIOUS DAYS HAVE LEFT
AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN VERY UNSTABLE. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EVEN
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE INTENSITY WILL LEAD TO MUDSLIDES AND ROCKFALL
DUE TO THE LOOSE SOIL. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALONG WITH THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
A MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND POTENTIAL FOR GOOD RAINS AND CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PUERTO RICO TODAY.

ALTHOUGH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND PWAT VALUES ARE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...EXPECT THE LOCAL AIRMASS TO
REMAIN VERY UNSETTLED WITH ENHANCED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LIKELY
TO PERSIST EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA. -SHRA POSSIBLE AT TJSJ AND TIST AS MOISTURE
APPROACHES SLOWLY TO THE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
UNTIL 26/14Z...INCREASING SLIGHTLY AFTER THAT AND BECOMING MORE
EASTERLY WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS...BUT MAY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AT TIMES. CIGS AT AROUND FL070 ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL PR AFTER 26/16Z...COULD
CAUSE VCTS ACROSS THE TERMINALS IN PR.

&&

.MARINE...RECENT DATA FROM THE SURROUNDING BUOYS SUGGEST SEAS AND
SWELL ACTION HAVE SUBSIDED. WINDS WILL HOWEVER GRADUALLY INCREASE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND SEAS WILL FOLLOW. THEREFORE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR AT LEAST THE EASTERN QUADRANT
OF THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ELSEWHERE MODELS
SUGGEST SEAS TO REMAIN 6 FEET OR LESS DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 76 87 76 / 30 60 70 20
STT 87 78 85 78 / 20 20 20 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Apr 27, 2016 3:51:23 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Apr 27, 2016 3:51:23 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
336 AM AST WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMNANTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF THE REGION
AND ASSOCIATED DIVERGENT PATTERN IN COMBINATION WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH OVER HISPANIOLA WILL MAINTAIN AN UNSTABLE WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR THIS MORNING DEPICTED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER...
LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED OVER LAND AREAS SO FAR THIS
MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER HISPANIOLA WILL MAINTAIN THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMNANTS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS ANS SURROUNDING WATERS TODAY. A WEAK MID TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF THE REGION WILL AID TO CREATE AN
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

VARIABLE CLOUDY SKIES WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SURROUNDING WATERS THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG
CORDILLERA CENTRAL. UNDER THE CURRENT UNSTABLE WEATHER PATTERN AND
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SOILS ARE ALREADY SATURATED DUE TO THE PREVIOUS RAINFALL EVENTS.
AS A RESULT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO URBAN FLOODING...
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. IN THE LONG TERM...IT LOOKS LIKE THAT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND POSSIBLE BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGED ACROSS ATLANTIC WATERS JUST
N OF LOCAL ISLANDS ... WITH SCT-BKN CLD LYRS FL020...FL060 AND BKN-
OVC FL100-FL150. EMBEDDED SHRA N OR PR AND NRN VIRGIN ISLANDS OVR
ATL WATERS N OF LOCAL ISLANDS WITH ISOLD TSRA TOPS 350-380. MTN TOP
OBSCR DUE TO LOW CLDS AND SHRA ERN PR TIL 27/14Z. MSTLY CLDY CONDS
FCST THRU 27/14Z WITH PREVAILING VFR AT TAF SITES TIL 27/16Z. AFT
27/16Z INCR CLD COVERAGE OVR INTERIOR SECTION OF PR WITH DVLPMNT OF
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA VCTY TJBQ... TJMZ....TJSJ...TNCM AND TKPK. ISOLD
SHRA VCNTY TISX AND TIST DURG PRD. SFC WINDS FM SE 5 TO 10KT. WINDS
ABV FL060 UP TO FL200 WSW 15-25 KT BCMG FM W 30-40 KT ABV FL200. MAX
WIND 60-70KTS NR FL 450.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY UP TO 6 FEET THIS MORNING AS
A NORTHERLY SWELL MOVES INTO THE LOCAL AREA. THE RIP CURRENT RISK
IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGH TODAY ACROSS THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO.

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Apr 28, 2016 3:42:10 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Apr 28, 2016 3:42:10 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
350 AM AST THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMNANTS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATES ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS MOISTURE IS
SUPPORTED BY A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM HISPANIOLA ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS NORTH OF THE
REGION. THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS
MORNING DEPICTED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS WELL AS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY IS
THE RESULT OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMNANTS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION AIDED BY A SURFACE TROUGH OVER
HISPANIOLA AND A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST TO THE NORTH OF
THE REGION. THIS IS ALMOST THE SAME WEATHER PATTERN THAT PERSISTED
OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE PAST DAYS.

TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS DAYS. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS FEATURES WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL
EFFECTS WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG CORDILLERA CENTRAL LATE IN THE MORNING AND EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...MOVING BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS OTHER PORTIONS OF THE
ISLANDS. THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO. THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL WINDS
REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THEREFORE SOME THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER EASTERN AND EASTERN INTERIOR
PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS OVER PARTS OF THE USVI. THEREFORE...A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. DUE TO ALREADY
SATURATED SOILS...HEAVY RAINS COULD LEAD TO URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING.

IN THE LONG TERM...THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTED ABUNDANT DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM SOUTH
AMERICA BY THE UPCOMING WEEK. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS THRU 28/14Z...WITH SFC WND CALM TO
LGT/VRB FOR PR TERMINALS. LGT WND MAINLY FM E AT TISX/TIST AND
TNCM/TKPK. SCT LYRS 018-025...SCT OCNL BKN 030...050 AND BKN-OVC LYR
100-120. SCT SHRA OVR ERN PR AND COASTAL WATERS BTW PR AND NRN
LEEWARDS. ISOLD TSRA OVR LOCAL WATERS MAX TOPS 350-400. BRIEF MTN
TOP OBSCR PSBL IN SHRA/LOW CLD CIG OVR ERN PR TIL 28/14Z. AFT 28/15Z
SHRA DVLPMNT LIKELY OVR NRN AND W PR AND WITH ISOLD TSRA AT TJBQ AFT
28/16Z. ADDITIONAL SHRA PSBL AT TJSJ...TJNR 28/18Z-23Z. WINDS WILL
CONT FM ESE EXCEPT WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS DEVELOPING AFT 28/14Z
WITH WND 10-15KT OCNL HIR GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET EXPECTED TODAY AND FRIDAY...DECREASING
SLIGHTLY FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE IS STILL A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND CULEBRA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 76 88 75 / 60 40 50 40
STT 84 76 83 76 / 50 50 50 40

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Apr 29, 2016 3:57:56 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Apr 29, 2016 3:57:56 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
522 AM AST FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A SHORT WAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE ON SATURDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. A SECOND AND WEAKER SHORT WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH ON
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO RIDGE OVER THE ANEGADA PASSAGE
BY MID WEEK. THEN IT WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY EAST AND STRENGTHEN.

AT MID LEVELS...A WEAK LOW WILL FORM NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC ON SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH IT DISSOLVES ON SUNDAY...WEAK
TROUGHING CONTINUES OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND HISPANIOLA
THROUGH MID WEEK. MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES TODAY AND SATURDAY
AND THEN AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA...WHILE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AGAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST CENTRAL
ATLANTIC LATE NEXT WEEK. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING RE-DEVELOPED
IN THE ATLANTIC AND CONTINUED WITH HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE REST OF
THE NIGHT. SHOWERS ALSO DEVELOPED SOUTH OF PONCE WITH OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING AND THEN MOVED NORTH...EVENTUALLY BRINGING SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TO MUCH OF THE SOUTH COAST SOUTH OF THE CORDILLERA FROM
GUAYANILLA TO MAUNABO. SOME OF THE SHOWERS PERSISTED AND MOVED
ACROSS SABANA GRANDE TO LAS MARIAS. GOOD MOISTURE WITH HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TODAY. THE
CURRENT GFS SHOWS A MINIMUM IN THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER THE
AREA AT 29/18Z...BUT AREAS OF DIVERGENCE MOVE BACK OVER THE AREA
IN THE WESTERLY FLOW BY 30/00Z. THIS SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS DESPITE THE RESISTANCE FROM THE UPPER LEVELS MAY CONTINUE
LATER INTO THE NIGHT TONIGHT. CURRENT INDICATIONS FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL RE-DEVELOP IN
WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS ALSO INDICATED IN NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO
AGAIN TODAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING AND ALLOW CONSIDERABLE HAZY SUNSHINE
TO MAKE IT THROUGH TO BOOST THE INSTABILITY AGAIN. THE NASA GEOS-5
DUST MODEL ALSO SHOWS SAHARAN DUST PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY TO
LIMIT VISIBILITIES TO 10 TO 15 MILES. MOISTURE IMPROVES SATURDAY
EVEN IF DYNAMICS DO NOT AND EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SIMILAR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING.
SUNDAY LOOKS SIMILAR ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY LESS ACTIVE. THEN MOISTURE
INCREASES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME THE GFS INDICATES THAT
THERE MAY BE LESS STRONG VERTICAL MOTION IN THE PROFILE EARLY NEXT
WEEK. NEVERTHELESS...FLOW WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND
WILL BE LOADED WITH MOISTURE TO CREATE AMPLE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOST PREVALENT OVER NORTHWEST PUERTO
RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...MOISTURE ALONG WITH UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SHRA/TSRA OVER THE SURROUNDING ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN
WATERS SOME OF THEM WILL MOVE INLAND AFFECTING THE COASTAL SECTIONS.
-SHRA/SHRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN AT TJPS/TISX/TNCM/TKPK
EARLY THIS MORNING. DURING THE AFTERNOON...MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF PR WITH SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE AT
TJMZ/TJBQ/TJSJ BETWEEN 29/17Z-30/02Z. CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS...BECOMING FROM THE SE AT 10 TO 15 KT AFTER 29/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...WITH WINDS THAT CHANGE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 4 TO 5
DAYS AND NORTHEASTERLY SWELL THAT SLOWLY DIMINISHES...SEAS WILL
CONTINUE AT 4 TO 6 FEET IN THE OUTER ATLANTIC AND A LITTLE LESS IN
THE CARIBBEAN. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED SINCE
NORTHERLY SWELL DOES NOT INCREASE MUCH ABOVE 4 FEET WHEN IT
REACHES THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...INCREASED WINDS AND THE SWELL
NOW REACHING THE AREA WILL BRING A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TO
PARTS OF THE NORTH COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND CULEBRA TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 75 87 75 / 60 40 40 40
STT 86 78 83 75 / 30 20 40 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Apr 30, 2016 3:53:06 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Apr 30, 2016 3:53:06 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
446 AM AST SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...AN AREA OF DIVERGENCE IS MOVING
ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO FAVOR STRONG CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAIN. A
TROUGH WILL FOLLOW ON SUNDAY. BUT INCOMING SHORTWAVES WILL
REINFORCE THAT TROUGH OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK. A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE AREA LATER NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...A WEAK LOW IS FORMING NORTH OF HAITI AND WILL MOVE
TO NORTH OF AGUADILLA BY 01/06Z. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE AREA UNTIL MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE TROPICAL AND
SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC DURING THE WEEK...BUT IS WELL AWAY FROM THE
AREA. MODERATE TO GOOD MOISTURE CONTINUES IN THE MID LEVELS UNTIL
AROUND 10 MAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A LOW IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS PULLING A
TROUGH OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS MORNING...BUT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REPLACE IT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN DURING THE WEEK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC AND EXTEND
SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA HOLDING MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER
THE AREA. MOISTURE IS NOT EXTREME BUT DEEP ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 5
DAYS. MORE DETAILS BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AIDED BY GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN A SHORT WAVE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH FREQUENT IN CLOUD AND CLOUD TO
WATER LIGHTNING DEVELOPED DURING THE HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT THIS
MORNING. AT THIS TIME VIGOROUS ACTIVITY NEARLY COVERS THE MONA
CHANNEL...AND MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN HAS SPILLED INTO WESTERN
PUERTO RICO. OTHER THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED IN THE COASTAL WATERS
SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT AND MOVED INLAND. SHOWERS HAVE ALSO
BEEN FORMING IN THE AIR BEING CARRIED OVER THE ISLAND FROM THE
SOUTHEAST RESULTING IN SOME RAIN FOR AREAS OF EASTERN PUERTO RICO.
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE MORNING AND MAY INTENSIFY
IN LOCAL AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BUT IT IS BEGINNING TO LOOK
LIKE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN IN MANY PARTS OF PUERTO RICO THIS
MORNING.

THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS HAVE SO FAR BEEN IN A QUIETER PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE ANEGADA
PASSAGE. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE FOCUS OF THE BEST
MOISTURE IS RETURNING FROM THE NORTH TO PASS OVER PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE DAY AND THEN REFORM TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A BREAK IN THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE ON SUNDAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER FALLS THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...MOISTURE INCREASES MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE
LATEST 30/00Z RUN OF THE GFS. DYNAMICS WILL NOT BE AS FAVORABLE
LATE IN THE WEEK BUT MID WEEK NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
ACTIVE.

ALTHOUGH RAINFALL HAS NOT REACHED 1 INCH ANYWHERE AS OF 4 AM AST
HEAVY AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE ISLAND TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
DURING THE DAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.AVIATION...UNSTABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SHRA/TSRA OVER THE REGION DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED AT TJSJ/TJPS/TJSJ/TJMZ WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS BETWEEN
30/08-18Z. SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING MOST OF THE
DAY...AS A RESULT MVFR OR POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
PR/USVI TERMINALS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SE AT 10 TO 15 KT
AND HIGHER AND VARIABLE IN/NEAR SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...WITH ONLY WEAK LOWS IN THE ATLANTIC...SWELLS FROM THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST HAVE BEEN SMALL. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER
THIS WEEKEND BUT FOR NOW SEAS ARE MOSTLY BELOW 6 FEET. SMALL CRAFT
NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION IN THE OUTER ATLANTIC WATERS. SEAS SHOULD
SUBSIDE THROUGH 02 MAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 75 88 75 / 80 30 40 40
STT 87 76 88 76 / 60 40 30 50

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather May 1, 2016 4:04:24 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on May 1, 2016 4:04:24 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
521 AM AST SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A TROUGH WITH A WEAK CUT-OFF LOW WILL PASS THROUGH
THE AREA TODAY. A SECONDS WEAKER TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH ON
TUESDAY TO PROLONG THE TIME THE TROUGH STAYS IN PLACE. BY THURSDAY
A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE AREA...MOVING OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...CONSIDERABLE DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY AND ONLY
MODEST MOISTURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WEAK
TROUGHINESS WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK...THEN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE ENTERING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHEAST TRADE
WIND FLOW THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE OVER THE AREA AFTER MONDAY KEEPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD CLEARED OFF ALL BUT
THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE EVENING. BUT
THE LINE OF SHOWERS RETURNED AND NOW STRETCHES ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. SHOWERS WENT OVER SAINT
CROIX AROUND 4 AM AST BUT THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS WENT AROUND THE
RAIN GAGE AT THE AIRPORT IN FREDERIKSTED. SHOWERS ARE WEAKENING AS
THEY APPROACH SAINT JOHN...SAINT THOMAS AND PUERTO RICO...BUT A
FEW ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY 8 AM AST. WITH SKIES CLEARING
HEATING SHOULD MAKE THINGS UNSTABLE AGAIN AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PUERTO RICO. MODELS BARELY SHOW
THE AREA WHERE SHOWERS ARE FIRING OFF NOW...BUT RATHER SHOW A
WIDE AREA OF MOISTURE WITH LITTLE FORM...MAKING THE FORECAST
PARTICULARLY DIFFICULT TODAY. HOWEVER THE GFS BRINGS SOME
DIVERGENCE AT UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE CENTER OF PUERTO RICO TODAY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHICH SHOULD HELP CONVECTION. OTHERWISE EXPECT
THE CONVECTION TO REMAIN MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF PUERTO RICO AND
POSSIBLY OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. WINDS CONTINUE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AND EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY. MOISTURE REACHES A
MINIMUM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT STILL AROUND 1.5 INCHES OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER. THEN OVER THE WEEK IT GRADUALLY RISES TO TWO
INCHES AGAIN. THE MODEL ALSO HAS 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES RISING
OVER THE AREA WITH THE WARMEST PERIOD FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
BECAUSE MOISTURE RISES THROUGH THE WEEK...THE FORECAST CAPE AND
LIFTED INDEX ALSO SHOW MORE INSTABILITY AS THE WEEK CONTINUES. THE
ONLY AMELIORATING FACTOR IS THAT MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS MODEST
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...SO THE FLOODING POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN
LOCALIZED TO URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN THE INTERIOR AND
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND FOR THE ENTIRE WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE
SOUTH COAST WILL BE WARM...OF COURSE...THE NORTH COAST WILL ALSO
SEE TEMPERATURES RISE BETWEEN NOW AND THURSDAY... AND SAN JUAN
SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE A FEW LOWER 90S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...-SHRA CAN BE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS MUCH OF
THE PR/USVI TERMINALS. ALSO...BKN/OVC HIGH CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA. -TSRA/SHRA CAN STILL AFFECT THE LEEWARD
TERMINALS FROM TIME TO TIME...AND ALSO CAN MOVE ACROSS OR NEAR
THE USVI/SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PR TERMINALS THIS MORNING. DURING
THE AFTERNOON MTN TOP OBSCURATIONS OVER ERN...INTERIOR AND
NORTHWESTERN PR IN SHRA/LOW CIG ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 01/15-23Z.
SFC WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KT WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15
KT AND LOCALLY HIGHER IN/NEAR TSRA/SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE GRADUALLY MELLOWING OVER THE AREA...BUT WILL
INCREASE SOMEWHAT BETWEEN 5 AND 7 MAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS AND SWELL FROM THE ATLANTIC
WILL BE MINIMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 77 88 76 / 30 40 30 40
STT 83 78 87 76 / 50 50 50 50

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather May 2, 2016 4:07:33 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on May 2, 2016 4:07:33 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
536 AM AST MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVED THROUGH THE
AREA OVERNIGHT AND ANOTHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS WINDS RETURN TO
WEST SOUTHWEST UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A BROAD RIDGE THEN PASSES
OVER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS RIDGE MOVES INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND. A STRONG LOW IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR NEW JERSEY FRIDAY NIGHT MOVING
EAST AND ITS FRINGES SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING THE LOCAL AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.

AT MID LEVELS..WEAK TROUGHINESS EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH THROUGH MID WEEK WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OCCUPIES MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE
AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA AND IN THE
NORTHEAST ATLANTIC WILL CONSOLIDATE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
AND BUILD THROUGH FRIDAY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS STAYED CLEAR OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT. BUT DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...SHOWERS FROM THE
BAND OF MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST BEGAN MOVING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA EAST OF SAINT CROIX AND SOUTH OF VIEQUES AND SAINT CROIX. AT
5 AM AST SHOWERS WERE MOVING BETWEEN SAINT JOHN AND SAINT CROIX.
MODELS AGREE THAT SHOWERS WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AGAIN TODAY...BUT THE GFS WAS MUCH TOO WET OVERNIGHT
PUTTING 60 TO 100 PERCENT POPS IN THE 02/06Z FORECAST IN VARIOUS
PLACES...MAINLY OVER WATER. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR OVER PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE EARLY PART OF THE MORNING
IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH A RAPID WARM-UP. THEN CLOUDS
WILL FORM WITH SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO.
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BEGIN A EARLY AS 11 AM AST... BUT MOST WILL
WAIT TILL AFTERNOON.

TODAY IS A LITTLE DIFFERENT THAN YESTERDAY. THE BAND OF MOISTURE
IS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST AND WIND FLOW ALSO APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE
MORE EASTERLY. HOWEVER IN THE LOWEST 10 KFT THE GFS SHOWS THE
WIND VEERING FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 02/00Z TO EAST SOUTHEAST AT
02/18Z AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO VISIT
THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE ISLAND WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A STREAMER
CROSSING SOUTHERN CAROLINA AND THE SAN JUAN BAY WITH HEAVY RAIN
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A SIMILAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. THEN THURSDAY WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AND HEAVY
RAIN SHOWERS WILL FAVOR MORE OF THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO.
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING SHOULD BE EXPECTED THIS WEEK
ACROSS A NUMBER OF AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL.
MOS TENDS TO WARM UP CONSIDERABLY BEGINNING TOMORROW AND
STEEPENING THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT CLOUDS COULD KEEP IT FROM REACHING
THE LAST FEW DEGREES. NEVERTHELESS EXPECT SOME LOWER 90S BY FRIDAY
AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY.

MID LEVELS CONTINUE TO HAVE MODEST MOISTURE UNTIL DRIER AIR MOVES
IN SOMETIME NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH MODELS BRING IN A BULLS EYE OVER
STRONG DIVERGENCE IN THE THE UPPER LEVELS ON MOTHERS DAY THAT
WOULD APPEAR TO FAVOR STRONGER CONVECTION...IT IS STILL TOO FAR
OUT TO PLACE ANY CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY RAIN FOR THE WEEKEND.
NEVERTHELESS THE SITUATION BEARS MONITORING.

&&

.AVIATION...PASSING SHRA AND VCTS CAN BE EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS
TIST/TISX/TJPS/TNCM/TKPK DURING THE MORNING HOURS. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR WITH TSRA/SHRA
AFT 02/16Z. AS A RESULT...EXPECT BKN CEILING AT FL025-FL060 AT
TJBQ/TJMZ/TJPS AND POSSIBLY AT TJSJ. THE SURFACE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH TO EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFT 02/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL PEAK AT AROUND 4.5 FEET ON TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT
IT IS MOSTLY EASTERLY WIND WAVES WITH LITTLE NORTHERLY SWELL. SEAS
THEN SUBSIDE UNTIL THURSDAY. NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN ANY LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 75 87 75 / 60 30 30 20
STT 85 75 86 77 / 50 30 20 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather May 3, 2016 4:11:27 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on May 3, 2016 4:11:27 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
558 AM AST TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
LIFT EASTWARD ACROSS LOCAL REGION TODAY. AS THE TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD...IT IS EXPECTED TO LEAVE THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE AREA. IN THE LOW LEVELS...AN INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH WILL
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST SOUTHEAST
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS MOVED ACROSS THE SURROUNDING WATERS
OF ST CROIX AND ST THOMAS OVERNIGHT. THE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED
SHOWERS WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AFFECTING ST
CROIX...PRODUCING LOCALIZED URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. FOR
TODAY...THE LINGERING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME
PASSING SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE SURROUNDING WATERS...AND THE
WINDWARD SECTIONS OF PR AND USVI. DURING THE AFTERNOON...UNDER
THE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED MAINLY DOWNWIND FROM EL YUNQUE...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. IN ADDITIONS...AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO. DUE
TO THE PREVIOUS RAIN EVENTS...THE SOILS ARE SATURATED AND ANY
HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING...AND
MUDSLIDES ACROSS STEEP TERRAIN.

THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWED THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LEAVING THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ISLANDS
BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...THE INSTABILITY SHOULD
DIMINISH BY THESE DAYS...CHANGING THE WEATHER PATTERN AND
DECREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE AVAILABLE TROPICAL SURFACE
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS AND DAYTIME HEATING
WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY
ACROSS SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND DOWNWIND FROM THE US VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

GFS SUGGEST THE ARRIVAL OF A POLAR TROUGH BY FRIDAY INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. ONCE AGAIN GFS MODEL GUIDANCE...AMPLIFIED THIS
POLAR TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AS A RESULT AN UNSTABLE
WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL BY FRIDAY INTO THE MOTHERS
DAY WEEKEND. THEREFORE...DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR AND
NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.AVIATION....BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA TO PREVAIL
ACROSS TNCM/TKPK. AFT 03/15Z SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP ACROSS NW AND N
CENTRAL PR IN MOIST SE FLOW PRODUCING PERIODS OF MVFR AND BRIEF
IFR CONDS. WIND FLOW ALSO APPEARS TO LINE UP BETWEEN TISX...TVQS
AND EL YUNQUE TO PLACE TJSJ IN LINE TO RECEIVE +TSRA AND BRIEF
MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS BTWN 03/15-18Z. OUTLOOK IS FOR AREAS OF
SHRA/TSRA TO CONTINUE OVER LOCAL WATERS BYD 04/06Z. SFC WINDS ESE
5 TO 15 KT WITH HIR GUSTS NR TSRA. LAND AND SEABREEZE INFLUENCES
IN LOCAL FLOW. MODELS UNDERESTIMATING WINDS BTWN SFC AND FL110
EXPECT ESE 15 TO 25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. THE
LOCAL BUOY NETWORK CONTINUES TO INDICATE SEAS BETWEEN 3 TO 4 FEET
AND EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON
MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO.
ALTHOUGH...RELATIVE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
TODAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT SEAS BELOW 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 18
KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 74 87 76 / 60 30 30 20
STT 84 75 85 78 / 40 20 20 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather May 4, 2016 4:28:03 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on May 4, 2016 4:28:03 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
608 AM AST WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
BETWEEN TODAY AND THURSDAY...AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES EASTWARD. BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...A POLAR TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A GENERALLY MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS
THE ISLANDS. THE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED A BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE AND CARIBBEAN WATERS OVERNIGHT. SOME SHOWERS
MOVED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
ALSO...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS DETECTED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS.

UNDER WEAKENING TROUGH...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THE AVAILABLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...CONTINUE TO EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS...AND THE WINDWARD SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS
MORNING. ALSO...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS CAN EXPECT ONE OR TWO
SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO COMBINE WITH THE DIURNAL AND
LOCAL EFFECTS TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. MINOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH THE HEAVIEST AND MOST PERSISTENT
SHOWERS.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TODAY INTO
FRIDAY...SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SOMEHOW DURING
THAT PERIOD. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS THE
SHOWER AND THUNDER ACTIVITY OVER AND NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA EACH
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO RETURN TO THE
FORECAST AREA BY LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BASED ON THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE...MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN DURING THE UPCOMING MOTHERS DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
AT LEAST 04/16Z. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER TJMZ AND TJBQ FROM 04/16-04/22Z. VCSH
ARE EXPECTED OVER TJSJ. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SOUTHEAST AT
10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS. SEAS AND
WINDS LOCALLY HIGHER IN THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 76 90 77 / 30 20 40 20
STT 86 78 87 78 / 20 20 30 30

&&

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather May 5, 2016 4:06:29 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on May 5, 2016 4:06:29 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
542 AM AST THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN/FILL AND LIFT FARTHER EAST NORTHEAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO A DEVELOPING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WHICH WILL PLACE THE REGION ON THE CONVERGENT/SUBSIDENT
SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. A POLAR TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH WEST OF
THE AREA THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVED
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO EARLY THIS MORNING.
RAINFALL ESTIMATED WERE BETWEEN HALF TO ONE INCH MAINLY OVER
ARROYO AND PATILLAS. LOCAL AREA REMAINED UNDER A MOIST SOUTH
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL CONTINUE TO BE AROUND
2.0 INCHES THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WILL
INDUCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO.

A SOUTHEAST EAST TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH MONDAY. AS A RESULT...WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURE WILL OCCUR MAINLY ALONG THE NORTHERN
SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO. FOR TUESDAY NEXT WEEK...A POLAR TROUGH WILL
MOVE CLOSER TO THE AREA...HELPING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF
SITES. VCSH EXPECTED ACROSS TJSJ/TJPS/TIST/TISX/TNCM/TKPK OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HRS. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND POS VCTS WITH
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER TJMZ AND TJBQ AFTER 05/16Z.
SFC WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SE AT AROUND 5-10 KTS...INCREASING UP TO
15 KTS AFTER 05/14Z WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 77 91 78 / 40 20 40 10
STT 86 79 86 79 / 30 30 30 10

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather May 6, 2016 3:48:21 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on May 6, 2016 3:48:21 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
507 AM AST FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN CUBA...
HAITI AND THE BAHAMAS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THESE FEATURES WILL INCREASE
AGAIN THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. A SOUTH WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT EASTERLY BY MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOME SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED OVER THE COASTAL
AREAS...WITH SOME AFFECTING THE SOUTH AND EAST SECTION OF PUERTO
RICO. ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AFFECTED SAINT THOMAS AND SAINT JOHN
IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. LOCAL AREA REMAINED UNDER THE
INFLUENCES OF A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE EAST AND AN UPPER
TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEST OF THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF
THESE FEATURES ARE PRODUCING A SOUTH WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
AS A RESULT...WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MAINLY
ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IS BRINGING WITH IT DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WHICH WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION EACH AFTERNOON. FOR THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...THE AFORMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKENS NORTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...KEEPING HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR COND EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
FORECAST PERIOD. VCSH ACROSS TJPS/TJSJ/TIST/TISX OVERNIGHT. PERIODS
OF MVFR COND WITH MTN OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED OVER TJMZ AND TJBQ BTW
06/16 AND 06/22Z. BASED ON 06/00Z SOUNDING...LOW LEVEL WINDS
CONTINUE SE AT AROUND 10 KTS OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS
AFTER 06/14Z WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 91 78 / 20 10 50 40
STT 87 82 86 80 / 30 10 40 40

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather May 7, 2016 3:47:28 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on May 7, 2016 3:47:28 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
505 AM AST SAT MAY 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WILL HOLD THROUGH
SUNDAY...WHICH WILL LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE WEEKEND. A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL PROMOTE HIGHER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOME SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...WITH SOME AFFECTING SAINT THOMAS AND SAINT JOHN IN THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. LOCAL AREA REMAINED UNDER THE INFLUENCES OF A
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE EAST AND AN UPPER TROUGH
AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEST OF THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THESE
FEATURES ARE PRODUCING A SOUTH WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO.

FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...THE AFORMENTIONED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKENS NORTH OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY...KEEPING HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. AFTER WEDNESDAY...A RETURN TO
NORMAL TRADE WINDS IS EXPECTED...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EVENTS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION IN THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. VCTS AND PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER TJMZ AND TJBQ BTW 07/16 AND
07/22Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS AFTER 07/14Z WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 92 78 87 76 / 20 20 20 40
STT 87 81 86 77 / 20 20 20 50

&&

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather May 8, 2016 4:11:32 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on May 8, 2016 4:11:32 GMT -6

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
552 AM AST SUN MAY 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EAST TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER MOST OF
THE AREA TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY ACTIVE NIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTED THE WESTERN HALF OF
PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT. SEVERAL FLOOD ADVISORIES...SPECIAL MARINE
WARNINGS AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WERE ISSUED. BROAD POLAR
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS PRESSING AGAINST THE STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE TROUGH IS SUSTAINING
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER THE MONA PASSAGE. TROUGH/SHEARLINE
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MONA
PASSAGE AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF PR. SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...TRADE WINDS
WILL BRING MOISTURE FROM THE EAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT OF
THIS BOUNDARY...AND WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THEREFORE...A WET PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR AND IFR COND EXPECTED OVER TJBQ/TJMZ/TJPS/TSJU
DUE TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING OVER THE AREA. SHRA AND TS WITH
LIGHTNING EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE AND
ATLANTIC WATERS IMPACTING MAINLY THE FLYING AREA OF TJBQ/TJMZ/TJSJ
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. VARIABLE LOW LEVEL WINDS WITH POS WIND
GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS IN/NEAR SHRA AND TS.

&&

.MARINE...SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS UP
TO 40 KTS. SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THESE WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 77 87 76 / 50 50 50 40
STT 86 77 85 75 / 50 60 60 50

Shoutbox

northshoreelise: not on the 12z... Oct 10, 2024 12:15:21 GMT -6

lencast: Really would appreciate it. Thank you, Lena Sept 27, 2024 5:20:46 GMT -6

lencast: I am in Jacksonville, and trying to drive back to New Orleans. Does anyone here know if the I-10 is passable in Lake City and Tallahassee. Sept 27, 2024 5:19:03 GMT -6

tcane: This sure looks like it dies quickly. maybe falling apart before metro New Orleans? Just looking at the lat dozen posts and images here. Sept 10, 2024 11:26:27 GMT -6

rebekahb-Metairie: Looks like it but I wait for the better trained eyes on the forum to respond. Sept 9, 2024 18:52:32 GMT -6

jdschlum-bedico/village of bo: Look further east than the 12z plots don’t it Sept 9, 2024 18:49:34 GMT -6

SKYSUMMIT: Oh sorry guys! I didn't eve see these new messages down here lol Jul 26, 2024 13:14:47 GMT -6

jenniqtip: Just as soon as* sry fat finger Jul 7, 2024 12:53:35 GMT -6

jenniqtip: I donate every year. 😀ju sry as soon as the first area of interest pops up!! I rarely post though so the tag isn’t necessary. Just know I appreciate everything you do!! Jul 7, 2024 12:53:12 GMT -6

larcat: SKYSUMMIT You can slap one on me

Jul 7, 2024 12:12:03 GMT -6

SKYSUMMIT: Thanks laismyhome ! Also, if there is anyone who has donated that has not been given the Supporter tag, please let us know. Jul 7, 2024 4:00:50 GMT -6

laismyhome: Here's a friendly reminder to go make a donation to support this forum that is so full of valuable reliable info. Link to donate is on homepage Jul 2, 2024 9:55:24 GMT -6

Deleted: Ernesto gonna mog hard.
I'm voting Alberto, Ernesto, Rafael and Deshawn Apr 1, 2024 19:15:21 GMT -6

SKYSUMMIT: ShanaBanana Yes...just click the link and then send a PM to either TIgergirl or myself. I can then shoot her a text letting her know and I'll add your supporter tag. THANK YOU!!!! Sept 23, 2023 16:08:37 GMT -6

ShanaBanana: At the risk of this being a dumb question. In order to donate, do I follow the instructions when I click “donate”, and then message tigergirl? I see people comment here that they donated, so I wasn’t sure if that had changed. Sept 20, 2023 10:54:40 GMT -6

SKYSUMMIT: Great to have you back! Sept 11, 2023 12:20:30 GMT -6

virginialee: Hi Skysummit: I was part of this back at the beginning. So happy to be back. Sept 8, 2023 5:08:12 GMT -6

SKYSUMMIT: Thanks to everyone who has recently donated! If I missed anyone and you still need a Supporter Tag, let me know. Sept 7, 2023 13:20:10 GMT -6

akeller11: Just donated Sept 6, 2023 11:11:36 GMT -6

SKYSUMMIT: Thanks guys and gals! You're very much appreciated! Aug 30, 2023 11:48:38 GMT -6

Puerto Rico Weather

Post by cycloneye on Apr 24, 2016 3:59:46 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Apr 25, 2016 4:18:37 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Apr 26, 2016 4:01:13 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Apr 27, 2016 3:51:23 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Apr 28, 2016 3:42:10 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Apr 29, 2016 3:57:56 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Apr 30, 2016 3:53:06 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on May 1, 2016 4:04:24 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on May 2, 2016 4:07:33 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on May 3, 2016 4:11:27 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on May 4, 2016 4:28:03 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on May 5, 2016 4:06:29 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on May 6, 2016 3:48:21 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on May 7, 2016 3:47:28 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on May 8, 2016 4:11:32 GMT -6

Shoutbox

Welcome All Members & Guests

Supporter Us & Donate for the 2024 Season

Hurricane Season 2024

Tropical Outlook

Regional Radars

Today's Convective Outlook

Today's Weather

Watches and Warnings