Puerto Rico Weather

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cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Sept 21, 2016 4:36:32 GMT -6

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Post by cycloneye on Sept 21, 2016 4:36:32 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
535 AM AST WED SEP 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Upper low northeast of the islands will merge with a
broad upper trof across the central Caribbean basin through the
end of the work week. A mid to upper ridge is forecast to build
through the weekend. TC Karl will continue to move to the
northeast/north of the region for the next several days. A weak
surface trough is expected to move across the islands on Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Very light showers were observed across the local
waters...with some affecting the eastern half of Puerto Rico and
the U.S. Virgin Islands overnight. For today...strong daytime
heating...combined with available moisture are expected to
produce another round of scattered to numerous showers with
thunderstorms over the Cordillera Central of Puerto Rico. Low
level winds are expected to be more northeasterly today. Therefore
the showers and thunderstorms are expected to drift toward the
southern plains.

For the rest of the work week...as tropical cyclone Karl passes
well northeast of the area...local region will remain in a col
area...which will result in very light and variable winds across
the region. Therefore...showers and thunderstorms will move very
slowly...which will increase the chances for urban and small
stream flooding across the area especially each afternoon. This
weather pattern will continue through at least Saturday...when a
upper level ridge is expected to build across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...VCSH expected early in the morning across the Leeward,
USVI and TJSJ taf sites. From 15Z-22Z, SHRA/TSRA expected to develop
along Cordillera Central, S, W and SW PR. Tempo MVFR cond possible
at TJBQ, TJPS and TJMZ with MTN obscurations. After 20/22Z ISOLD/SCT
SHRA mostly over waters. Winds generally from the N to NE at 5 to 10
kts with sea breeze variations.

&&

.MARINE...Seas up to 6 feet and winds up to 10 knots are expected
over the coastal waters. Small Craft should exercise caution
across the offshore Atlantic waters and the Anegada passage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 92 79 / 40 20 50 20
STT 90 80 88 80 / 40 40 40 40

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Sept 24, 2016 4:21:31 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Sept 24, 2016 4:21:31 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
543 AM AST SAT SEP 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Tropical Storm Karl located north of the region will
continue to result southeasterly winds across the waters and local
islands. Temperatures once again expected to be higher than
average across some coastal areas. A tropical wave expected near
the local area by mid next week.

.DISCUSSION...Tropical Storm Karl continues north of the region
and will continue to result in a light southeasterly wind flow
across the waters and local islands today through the rest of the
weekend. This will also result in higher than average temperatures
along several coastal areas...especially the north coastal areas
of Puerto Rico...as well as Vieques and Saint Croix USVI. Heat
Index values could surpass 102 degrees along these portions.

Upper level ridge will continue northeast of the region through
the rest of the weekend. For today, the GFS model continues to
indicate some patches of low level moisture moving across the
region. Some passing showers along the southern and eastern
portions of Puerto Rico is possible during the morning hours. In
the afternoon, this moisture with the local effects and warmer
than usual temperatures may combine to produce shower and
thunderstorm development mainly across the north and northwestern
portions of Puerto Rico.

Models continue to suggest a tropical wave approaching the local
waters from mid next week through late next week. This tropical
wave may bring an increase in moisture across the region.
The initial development of this wave however will be slow for the
moment.

.AVIATION...VFR conds expected across the flying area and all
TAF sites through at least 24/16z. Btw 24/16-22Z, SHRA/TSRA expected
to develop along interior and northwest sections of PR. MVFR conds
possible at TJBQ and TJBQ with MTN obscurations along interior PR.
Low level winds will be mainly southeast at 5 to 10 kts, except for
sea breeze variations along the coast.

.MARINE...Light southeast winds will prevail during the rest of
the weekend, with seas of less than 5 feet and winds 10 knots or
less. There is a moderate risk of rip currents for some beaches
along the north coast of Puerto Rico.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 79 89 79 / 20 20 20 20
STT 89 80 89 79 / 20 20 20 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Sept 28, 2016 4:25:53 GMT -6

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Post by cycloneye on Sept 28, 2016 4:25:53 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
547 AM AST WED SEP 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Patch of drier air is expected to move into the local
area today, however there should still be enough moisture to cause
showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon across western and
central PR. SFC high pressure across the north central Atlantic
will keep a moderate easterly wind today. Strong tropical wave
known as Invest 97L is now about 150 miles east of Barbados and
it is expected for the invest to continue moving west at about
15-20 mph. National Hurricane Center expects Invest 97L to become
a tropical cyclone later today. As the tropical wave moves into
the Caribbean waters, the local marine conditions will deteriorate
this afternoon through Friday increasing both winds and seas.
Weather conditions may also deteriorate on Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...For today...a small area of relatively drier air is
expected to move into the local islands, decreasing the
precipitable water values to roughly 1.5 inches by this afternoon.
However, there is still enough moisture to cause the development of
showers and thunderstorms across the interior and western sections
of PR in the afternoon once the moisture combines with the diurnal
heating and local effects. The big story though is that the
expected weather and marine conditions are expected to deteriorate
tonight across the local area due to the proximity of Invest 97L
which at this time is still a strong Tropical Wave. Invest 97L is
expected to bring a significant increase in sustained wind speeds
and shower and thunderstorm activity. The local winds are expected
to increase across the local waters late in the afternoon with
coastal winds across the Anegada Passage and the Offshore
Caribbean waters possibly observing winds of 20-25 knots, then
late tonight, shower activity is expected to increase across the
local islands, affecting the USVI and eastern PR. This increase in
shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to continue through
Thursday, particularly affecting the eastern and northern sections
of PR on Wednesday night and through Thursday, while western PR
may observe the activity mainly in the late morning into the
afternoon. Passing showers and thunderstorms will move around the
USVI, some of which will affect the islands. The overall moisture
will increase significantly on Thursday but improve by Thursday
night into Friday morning, which may cause the shower and
thunderstorm activity to diminish at that time. Also, the
sustained winds are currently forecast to be up to around 25 knots
or slightly higher starting late tonight into Thursday, but there
is a chance that winds would be slightly higher even as guidance
suggested as much as 36 knots over the waters. We decided to tone
down the wind speeds for our forecast since there is currently no
observation that would confirm that the models are initializing
well, every surface observation we saw suggested at least 10 knots
under what the models were indicating for this time, so our
forecast is currently under what the latest guidance is
suggesting, appropriate changes to the forecast will be made if
needed.

Depending of the track and intensity of this tropical
disturbance, we could see an increase in the overall moisture
during the weekend and into the early part of the upcoming week.
So at this time there is considerable uncertainty as to what would
happen this weekend and early next week, but everything seems to
indicate that a persistent area of deep moisture will drape over
the local islands through at least Wednesday. This set up would cause
good shower and thunderstorm activity over the local forecast area
for several consecutive days.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds expected across all TAF sites through 28/12z.
MVFR conds possible at TJMZ with MTN Top obscurations near
convection along interior and west PR between from 28/17Z-22Z. Winds
incrg aft 28/14Z bcmg E 15 to 20 with gusty winds up to 30kt.

&&

.MARINE...Small craft advisories will go into effect this
afternoon across many of the local waters and then most of the
local waters will be under a small craft advisory starting this
evening. Seas are expected to start deteriorating this afternoon
with seas gradually increasing to 7 feet late this afternoon and
then up to 8 feet by this evening, continuing to deteriorate,
possibly up to 14 feet with occasional higher seas across the
offshore Caribbean waters. There is a moderate risk of rip
currents across most of the local beaches but that will change
quickly to high risk of rip currents this evening as the local
seas and winds increase.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 80 89 78 / 20 50 50 30
STT 92 80 89 79 / 20 60 60 40

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Sept 29, 2016 4:08:36 GMT -6

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Post by cycloneye on Sept 29, 2016 4:08:36 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
542 AM AST THU SEP 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Tropical Storm Matthew is currently about 300 miles to
the SSE of the local islands. Matthew is forecast to continue
moving westward today with its center of circulation passing 250
miles or more to the south of the local islands. However, we
expect breezy conditions with showers and thunderstorms across the
local area today. Weather to improve late today and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Showers and isolated thunderstorms have been
observed over the local waters through the overnight hours. Some
showers have affected the land areas but the amounts have been
modest since the showers are moving rather fast. It has been
breezy and we expect breezy conditions to continue today with
winds at 15-30 mph and higher gusts. Shower and thunderstorm
activity is expected to gradually increase through the morning
hours and affecting most of the land areas by this afternoon. The
proximity of TS Matthew to the local islands means that the local
marine conditions will deteriorate significantly. We currently
have several advisories in effect such as Small Craft, High Risk
of Rip Currents and High Surf advisories.

Things are expected to improve weather wise this afternoon and
evening, and Friday is not expected to be as active as today. The
rest of the weekend and early next week is going to be highly
dependent on the track that TS Matthew takes. So there is
considerable uncertainty on the local weather for the upcoming
days. Having said that, there is some agreement in the forecast
models that we will be under a great deal of moisture early next
week under a southerly flow, which if it verifies, would cause a
great deal of shower and thunderstorm activity over the local
islands, so that is definitely something to monitor.

&&

.AVIATION...Brief MVFR or even IFR conds with mountain obscurations
will remain possible at all TAF sites as TS Matthew moves across the
Caribbean waters and south of the local islands. Wx conds will
slowly improve this afternoon across the Leeward terminals and
during the evening hours across the PR and USVI terminals. Sfc wnds
15 to 25 with ocnl gusts 30 to 40 kts with passing SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...Very hazardous marine conditions are expected today as
TS Matthew passes to our south. Winds of up to 30 knots and seas
of 14 feet and occasionally higher are forecast across the local
waters, especially the offshore Caribbean waters, therefore there
is a Small Craft Advisory for all of our local waters. There is a
high risk of rip currents for just about all of the PR and USVI
coasts and there is also a High Surf Advisory for the beaches in
southern and eastern PR, Vieques, and Saint Croix.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 89 77 / 60 50 40 20
STT 90 79 89 78 / 60 50 40 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Sept 30, 2016 4:31:37 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Sept 30, 2016 4:31:37 GMT -6

AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
535 AM AST FRI SEP 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Hurricane Matthew will continue to move across the
Central Caribbean and away from the local islands today. Ridge
aloft will hold through the end of week with trofiness returning
to the forecast area Sun-Mon. Surface high north of the area and
Hurricane Matthew southwest of the forecast area will continue to
promote moderate to fresh easterly winds through Saturday. Surface
winds are expected to become southerly early next week as Matthew
moves northward and crosses into the southwest Atlantic.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Partly to variably cloudy skies prevailed across
the local islands during the overnight and early morning hours.
Passing showers were observed mainly over the offshore waters
with some of them affecting the northern and eastern coasts of
the islands. Minimum temperatures were in the mid 70s to around 80
degrees across lower elevations.

Under weak ridge aloft...moderate to fresh easterly winds and
precipitable water near normal values, a few showers embedded in
the trades will continue to affect the coastal areas in the
morning followed by locally induced showers and thunderstorms
across west PR. This weather pattern is expected through at least
Saturday. Surface winds are expected to become southerly early
next week as Matthew moves northward and crosses into the
southwest Atlantic.

Weather conditions across the forecast area are highly dependent
on Matthew trajectory. Based on the latest guidance as winds
shift southerly, deep tropical moisture will be advected across
the local islands. This moisture will then combine with trofiness
aloft from the east to result in a better chance for shower and
thunder late Sun-Tue. A weak ridge will build across the local
islands by midweek. However, locally induced afternoon showers
and thunderstorms still expected Wed-Fri.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR conditions expected across much of the
terminals today. However, trade wind showers with tops around
FL250 with possible TSTM across the Atlantic waters could briefly
affect the leeward/USVI and east/northern PR terminals through the
morning hours. Then between 16z-22z, TSRA/SHRA developing along
the interior and western portions of PR will create tempo MVFR
conditions, impacting mainly TJMZ and the VCTY of JBQ/JPS/JSJ.
Low level east winds will continue at 15-25 kt.

&&

.MARINE...Marine conditions will continue to slowly improve
as Matthew moves across the central Caribbean and further away
from the local islands. Seas up to 12 feet across the offshore
Caribbean waters and subsiding with winds 20-25 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 90 77 / 40 20 30 20
STT 90 79 90 79 / 30 30 30 20

&&

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Oct 1, 2016 4:37:52 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Oct 1, 2016 4:37:52 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
546 AM AST SAT OCT 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Surface high pressure in the northern Atlantic will
keep an easterly wind flow through the weekend. However, the localwinds
will become more southerly as Hurricane Matthew moves north into
the Southwestern Atlantic by next week. Brief showers embedded in
the trades are expected in the morning and overnight hours, while
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across western
PR in the afternoon. The track of Hurricane Matthew will have an
impact on the local weather early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The local weather pattern today will be mainly
dominated by a surface high pressure that is keeping an easterly
trade wind flow across the area. There is enough moisture to cause
passing showers which are mainly affecting the local waters, USVI
and eastern PR this morning. Then in the afternoon, showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop across western PR but with
less coverage than the past few days as slightly drier air is
moving in. This slightly drier air could be short lived since the
Hurricane Matthew, currently just over 400 miles SE of Kingston
Jamaica, is expected to move north, and with that bring deeper
moisture to the local area starting on Sunday. However, the latest
guidance is suggesting that the increase of moisture will be
limited because Matthew is expected to move a bit too far west to
keep bringing a steady stream of deep moisture as it moves north.
Having said that, a slight shift to the east of what the models
are suggesting means that the moisture influx could be much higher
and persistent, so there is definitely some uncertainty on the
forecast for early next week. Regardless though, the local winds
are expected to turn more southerly which will likely cause an
increase in the trumpeters across northern PR, especially in
those areas that do not observe much rainfall or cloud cover. As
of now, the day with the moist amount of rain appears to be on
Monday according to the GFS model. Some rain with a mix of sun and
clouds are expected for the rest of the workweek with the
southerly winds gradually becoming more easterly late in the
workweek.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected across most of the terminals.
Trade wind showers with tops around FL200 will continue across the
local waters affecting at times with VCSH/-RA the leeward
islands,USVI and eastern PR terminals through the forecast period.
Between 01/16z-22z, TSRA/SHRA developing over the western interior
portions of PR will create tempo MVFR conditions, impacting mainly
the flying area of TJMZ/TJBQ. Low level E-ESE winds will continue
at 10-20 kt. Higher gusts due to sea breezes expected after 14z.

&&

.MARINE...Local buoys are all reporting seas of 5 feet or less
while the offshore Atlantic buoys are reporting seas of under 7
feet. Coastal winds are expected to be at 20 knots or less and
seas are 5 feet or less nearshore and 6 feet or less across the
local offshore waters. Small craft should exercise caution.
Moderate risk of rip currents.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 78 89 79 / 20 10 20 10
STT 89 79 88 79 / 30 10 10 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Oct 2, 2016 4:26:47 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Oct 2, 2016 4:26:47 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
533 AM AST SUN OCT 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure north of the islands will relocates
over the Central/East Atlantic over the next few days as Major
Hurricane Matthew moves northward from the Central Caribbean into
the Western Atlantic. As a result, easterly winds is expected
today...veering to the south southeast early in the week as
Matthew moves across the Windward Passage and Bahamas. Southerly
flow will favor the advection of showers and thunderstorms over
the islands Monday and Tuesday. Moisture will likely decrease
across the local region by midweek when Matthew away from the
Greater Antilles.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Broad cyclonic circulation associated with Major
Hurricane Matthew is favoring the development of showers and
thunderstorms across the Caribbean Sea. Persistent shower activity
has been affecting the local Caribbean Waters and Mona Passage
since midnight. However...minimal shower activity has been
observed over Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands during
overnight hours. The rest of today...expect some showers will
reach the east coastal sections of the islands this morning...
following by a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms over
portions of the West and Northwest Puerto Rico this afternoon.

Tonight through Tuesday...southerly flow induced by Hurricane Matthew
will bring deep tropical moisture over the forecast area. This
flow will favor the advection of showers and thunderstorms from
the Caribbean Waters. Moisture associated with the tail of Matthew
will likely maintain moist and unstable conditions across the islands
through Tuesday.

Midweek through the end of the week...As Hurricane Matthew moves
northward over the Bahamas and the Western Atlantic...drier and
more stable air mass will return to the local islands.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR conditions expected across much of the
terminals. However, trade wind showers with max tops around FL200
will continue across the local waters affecting at times with VCSH/-
RA the leeward islands,USVI and eastern PR terminals through the
forecast period. Between 02/16z-22z, TSRA/SHRA developing over the
western interior portions of PR will create tempo MVFR conditions,
impacting mainly the flying area of TJMZ/TJBQ and VCTY of TJSJ.
SHRA/TSRA expected to increase across the Caribbean waters/Mona
Passage through the fcst period. Low level E-ESE winds 10-15
kt, with higher gusts aft 14z.

&&

.MARINE...Seas up to 6 feet and winds up to 20 knots will continue
across most of the local waters today. Therefore...Small Craft
Operators should exercise caution. Moderate risk of rip currents
will continue for most of the local beaches.

Seas are forecast to increase somewhat over the Mona Passage and
the local Caribbean Waters on Monday when Matthew moves northward
over the Windward Passage. This may require Small Craft Advisories
for these marine zones early in the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 90 77 / 20 10 50 20
STT 88 79 87 78 / 20 30 30 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Oct 3, 2016 4:49:00 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Oct 3, 2016 4:49:00 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
600 AM AST MON OCT 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Hurricane Matthew over the central Caribbean basin
is forecast to move northward into the southwestern Atlantic
during the next few days. Surface high pressure will continue
across the central and eastern Atlantic through the forecast
period. This will cause winds to turn more southerly through at
least mid-week. A tropical wave is forecast to enter the eastern
Caribbean on Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A line of showers and thunderstorms moved from the
Caribbean waters into sections of southern Puerto Rico just before
sunrise. This line of showers with additional isolated
thunderstorms could continue to affect the interior portions of
Puerto Rico during the next hour or so. Cloudiness and periods of
showers and thunderstorms are expected as Major Hurricane Matthew
continues to move north between Hispaniola and Cuba and into the
southwestern Atlantic through Wednesday.

Deep southerly wind flow should carry showers from the Mona
Passage and offshore Caribbean waters across the islands each day
with additional showers and thunderstorms developing over and to
the north of the central mountain ranges of Puerto Rico each
afternoon. However, cloud cover could delay or inhibit widespread
diurnally induced convection. Regardless, any thunderstorm that
develops has the potential to create brief gusty winds and urban
and small stream flooding through at least Tuesday. Later in the
week, a tropical wave is forecast to affect the local islands
increasing shower and thunderstorm activity across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds with BKN clouds at BKN100 expected at the TAF
sites thru 03/15Z. Then...Areas of MVFR in SHRA/isold TSRA are
possible near TJMZ and TJBQ between 03/16-21Z. Southerly winds of 10-
20 kts will prevail below FL200.

&&

.MARINE...Small craft advisory for seas up to 7 feet across the
Mona Passage, Caribbean and Atlantic offshore waters, otherwise
small craft should continue to exercise caution across the rest of
the waters due to seas up to 6 feet and southerly winds up to 20
knots. Moderate risk of rip currents continue for much of PR and
St. Croix.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 77 90 80 / 50 20 40 0
STT 85 79 87 80 / 40 30 40 20

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Oct 4, 2016 4:26:47 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Oct 4, 2016 4:26:47 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
617 AM AST TUE OCT 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Hurricane Matthew moving over southwestern Haiti and
surface high pressure across the Atlantic will continue to promote
southerly winds Today, providing tropical moisture advection across
the forecast area. An elongated area of low pressure to the
north-northeast of the area is expected to have little impact on
the local weather conditions as it continues to move north into
the open Atlantic. Tutt is forecast to retrogress across the
Eastern Caribbean basin by Friday, while a tropical wave enters
the area at the same time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms were observed around 2 am
across portions of southern Puerto Rico. The doppler radar
estimated around half an inch of rain with this activity.
Elsewhere across the forecast area cloudy skies and mostly light
stratiform rain was observed. Temperatures across coastal areas
were in the high 70s and the wind was mainly southerly at 5 to 10
mph over land areas.

For Today, cloudiness and periods of showers and thunderstorms
will continue as Hurricane Matthew continues its path northward
across Haiti and Cuba. Stratiform rain will continue for much of
the day with periods of showers and thunderstorms developing at
times across the Cordillera Central and drifting slowly northward
across the rest of the area. The potential for urban and small
stream flooding continues high Today.

On Wed-Thu, as cloud cover decreases over the area expect typical
induced afternoon convection over the interior and NW PR and a
return of light trade wind showers across the USVI and windward
areas through the overnight hours. On Friday, a tutt across the
Caribbean basin is expected to interact with a tropical wave
located now along 50 west to enhance showers and thunderstorms
across the forecast area through early in the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...BKN-OVC at FL100 with -SHRA are expected today as outer
bands from Hurricane Matthew move over the flying area. Southerly
winds of 15-25 kt fm SFC to FL150 will likely push SHRA/TSRA from
the Caribbean Waters over portions of the islands at times. Brief
periods of MVFR conds and mountains obscurations are possible at
TJPS/TJMZ and TIST/TISX from time to time.

&&

.MARINE...Seas will continue to gradually build from 6 to 8 feet
with occasional seas up to 11 feet across the Mona Passage and the
rest of the Caribbean waters through the overnight hours into
early Wednesday morning. There is a high risk of rip currents for
the west/southern beaches in PR, Vieques and St. Croix. There is
also a high surf advisory in effect for the southwestern coast of
Puerto Rico through this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 90 79 / 50 10 20 30
STT 87 78 88 80 / 50 20 20 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Oct 5, 2016 4:33:02 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Oct 5, 2016 4:33:02 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service San Juan PR
554 AM AST WED OCT 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...The high pressure ridge pattern extending across the
Northeastern Caribbean from the North Central and Eastern Atlantic
will continue to be disrupted, as powerful Hurricane Matthew moves
across the southwest Atlantic and Tropical storm Nicole continued
to slowly move northwest into the Western Atlantic. As a result, a
moderate south to southeast low level wind flow will be maintained
at least until early Thursday. Farther east, a tropical wave east
of the windward islands will continue westward. This wave is forecast
to enter the Eastern Caribbean late thursday or early Friday. In
the upper levels, High pressure ridge across the region will shift
westward through Thursday as a tutt low and associated trough will
enter and move across the Eastern Caribbean.

&&

.DISCUSSION...mid to upper levle cloud debris from Hurricane
Matthew will continue to spread northwards across the region
today through at least early Thursday. Recent model guidance as
well as previous TJSJ upper air sounding suggested a fairly moist
and unstable environemnt will prevail through today. Although cloud
cover may be a limiting factor in shower development during the
morning hours, do however expect sufficient instability aloft and
daytime heating to allow for late morning and afternoon convection
across portions of the islands, particularly the Northern and northwest
sections of Puerto Rico. Activity should diminish and taper off by
the early evening hours as a slot of somewhat drier air will filter
in across the region and mid to upper level cloudiness gradually
diminishes.

On Thursday expect passing early morning showers to affect the
east coastal sections of the islands. This will be followed by
isolated to scattered afternoon convection mainly over parts of
the central and northwest sections of Puerto Rico. Late Thursday
through Friday, expect a slight increase in moisture once again
as a tropical wave will move across the Eastern Caribbean and
increase the chance for early morning and afternoon convection.

By the end of the work week and into the weekend, the prevailing
southeasterly wind flow is so far expected to mantain fairly a moist
environment across the region. this will allow for early morning passing
showers and isolated to scatterd afternoon convection each day.
However,widespread rainfall is not expected across the region at
this time.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions expected across the local flying
area for the next 24 hours. However, brief periods of MVFR
conditions are possible at TJBQ or TJMZ after 05/17Z due to
afternoon convection. Winds will continue mainly from the E-SE at
around 10KT increasing once again after 05/13Z from the E-ESE at
around 10-15 KT with sea breeze variations developing.

&&

.MARINE...Seas and swell action from Hurricane Matthew have begun
to subside during the overnight hours. Small craft advisory will remain
in effect for the Mona passage and portions of the Carribbean
waters later this morning. Small craft operators should exercise
caution elsewhere, as hazardous conditions will persist during the
rest of the day. continue for most beaches of puerto rico and the
U.S. Virgin Islands.

The high risk Of rip currents, and high surf advisory for the beaches
of southwest Puerto rico was cancelled. A moderate risk of rip currents
will however continue for most beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S Virgin
Islands.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 88 78 / 30 30 30 30
STT 88 80 85 79 / 30 40 40 40

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Oct 6, 2016 4:20:36 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Oct 6, 2016 4:20:36 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
547 AM AST THU OCT 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Tutt and associated mid level trough will continue to
move across the region today through Friday. The tutt axis was now
moving across the Virgin Islands placing the region on the
convergent side of the trough therefore limiting convective
development. Earlier Tjsj 06/00z upper air sounding suggests a
gradual decline in layered precipitable water across the region
during the past 24 hours with satellite imagery also showing a
break in cloud cover from western PR to the USVI. Surface high
pressure ridge extending across the region form the Central
Atlantic, and major Hurricane Matthew now moving thorough the
Bahamas will help maintain light to moderate easterly winds across
the region thorough Friday. The tropical wave with axis now near
58 W is expected to enter and move across the Eastern Caribbean
later tonight through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Gradual break in clouds across the region and sufficient moisture
convergence across the region today will support afternoon and
early evening convection across parts of the islands. However
expect most of the activity to be focused mainly over parts of
the central and northwest interior sections of Puerto Rico. Low
level winds flow still east to southeast so activity should steer
towards the west northwest and affect the surrounding municipalities.
Upper level support should be limited at least until later in the
afternoon and evening when the trough should relocate just west of
the region. By then and through Friday expect more favorable conditions
for enhanced convection across the islands and coastal waters. Afternoon
high temperatures should once again reach the low 90s in some areas.

Late Thursday through Friday expect increasing low level convergence
across the region with the approach of the tropical wave. However
recent model guidance suggest best moisture pooling occurs after
passage of the wave when winds become more southeasterly. This along
with the proximity of the tutt west of the area will increase the
chance for showers and thunderstorm development and a much wetter
weather pattern at least through Saturday. On Sunday and into early
next week...expect available moisture across the region to combine
with increasing local and diurnal effects for late morning and afternoon
convection across parts of the islands particularly over the central
interior and west sections of Puerto Rico.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR conditions expected to prevail across
the local flying area through 06/16Z. SHRA/TSRA with mtn
obscurations expected thereafter near TJMZ and TJBQ where TEMPO MVFR
conds are possible until 06/22Z. SCT-BKN layers between FL100-FL150
expected to continue this morning. Light trade wind showers could
briefly affect TJMZ early this morning. Winds will continue mainly
from the E-ESE at around 10-15 KT with sea breeze variations
developing after 06/14z.

&&

.MARINE...Marine conditions continue to subside as Hurricane
Matthew moves northwest and farther away from the regional waters.
No small craft advisories are expected today or during the next 7
days at this time. However Small Craft operators should exercise
caution mainly across the coastal waters of northern Puerto Rico
today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 89 79 / 30 30 30 30
STT 88 80 87 79 / 30 40 40 40

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Oct 7, 2016 4:15:52 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Oct 7, 2016 4:15:52 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
543 AM AST FRI OCT 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Upper level trough will continue to shift farther west
of the region today,while a high pressure ridge will sink southwards
and build across the region through Saturday. Surface high pressure
across the Central Atlantic, and Hurricane Nicole moving across
the Western Atlantic, will maintain light to moderate easterly winds
across the region. A tropical wave now crossing The eastern Caribbean
will bring an increase in low level moisture and instability to
the region today and into the upcoming weekend. An easterly
perturbationwill also quickly follow this wave with additional
moisture. Meanwhile, dangerous Hurricane Matthew continued moving
northwest and closer to the east coast of Florida.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Isolated to scattered showers dotted most of the
regional waters during the early morning hours accompanying the
Tropical wave now moving across the eastern Caribbean. For the
rest of the day, expect sufficient moisture convergence and
instability to allow for another round of afternoon showers and
isolated thunderstorms across portions of the islands. Although
widespread rainfall is not expected, do however expect locally
enhanced convection over portions of the north central interior
and west sections of Puerto Rico including around the San Juan
metro area. Shower activity should diminish by early evening
leaving partly cloudy skies over land areas.

Early morning passing showers can be expected on Saturday and Sunday
followed by locally and diurnally induced afternoon convection each
day, some of which will be locally enhanced. This will lead to periods
of moderate to locally heavy rainfall and possibly minor urban and
small stream flooding. Afternoon high temperatures will be in the
high 80s to low 90s along the coastal areas.

&&

.AVIATION....VFR early in the fcst period. Then a tropical wave
across the Leeward Island will pass mainly across the Caribbean Sea
thru the local flying area arnd 07/18z, moisture and brief MVFR
conds in SHRA/TSRA will increase thru 07/21z. Incrg moisture will
generate mtn obscurations and areas of MVFR in SHRA/TSRA in interior
and western PR and downstream from the Luquillo mtn range aft 07/16z.
Sfc winds generally E 8 to 12 kt bcmg ESE aft wave psg.

&&

.MARINE...Local buoys and recent model guidance continued to
suggest seas mainly between 2 to 5 feet. Coastal winds will be
mainly from the east at 10 to 15 knots with occasionally higher
gusts near the coastal shores.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 89 78 / 40 30 30 30
STT 89 79 87 78 / 50 40 40 40

&&

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Oct 8, 2016 4:34:00 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Oct 8, 2016 4:34:00 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
455 AM AST SAT OCT 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A tropical wave over Puerto Rico this morning will
continue to produce showers and a couple of thunderstorm across
the USVI and Eastern sections of Puerto Rico this morning. This
feature will combine with daytime heating and local effects to
induce the development of showers and thunderstorms along and
north of Cordillera Central this afternoon. An upper level trough
will drift over the region on Monday, maintaining a relatively wet
weather pattern across the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Doppler weather radar indicated isolated to
scattered showers and a couple of thunderstorms overnight and
early in the morning mainly across the coastal waters. Some of
these showers moved across eastern and southeastern sections of
Puerto Rico from time to time. This activity was associated with
the moisture of a tropical wave just across the region and will
continue to affect the eastern sections of Puerto Rico for the
rest of the morning hours.

This moisture is expected to combine with daytime heating and
local effects to produce a new round of scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms across central interior, western and
northern sections of Puerto Rico, as well as across the coastal
waters this afternoon. This will lead to periods of moderate to
locally heavy rainfall and possibly minor urban and small stream
flooding. A high pressure ridge will continue to sink southward
and build across the region today. This feature will slightly
inhibit the development of widespread thunderstorms across the
local islands today.

For late Sunday and Monday an upper level trough is expected to
drift across the northeast Caribbean from the north. This feature
is expected to maintain a relatively wet weather pattern across
the region for the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT-BKN cld lyrs FL025...FL040 Passing showers will
continue across the local flying area as a tropical wave will move
West across the Eastern Caribbean. This may result in brief MVFR
conds at the Leeward and USVI terminals as well as TJSJ/TJNR. Aft
08/16z SHRA/TSRA expect to develop over and north of the Cordillera.
This will result in mountain obscurations and MVFR or even IFR conds
at JMZ/JBQ and JSJ. SFC wnd Lgt and vrbl overnight, becoming ESE at
10-15 knots aft 08/14z.

&&

.MARINE...Swell generating by Tropical Storm Nicole will continue
to move toward the local area...with seas between 5 and 7 feet at
the outer buoy 41043 through Sunday or Monday. In general, however
seas will remain below 6 feet in San Juan`s marine forecast area
until Monday. Small craft advisories may be needed by Monday or
Tuesday for northerly swell induced by TS Nicole.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 90 77 / 50 30 40 10
STT 88 80 87 82 / 60 40 40 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Oct 9, 2016 4:32:44 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Oct 9, 2016 4:32:44 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Juan PR

437 AM AST SUN OCT 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Tropical wave over Hispaniola will continue to move

westward and away from the local islands today. An upper level trough

will move over the region on Monday, maintaining a relatively wet

weather pattern across the region. Tropical Storm Nicole will

remain near stationary north of the local area through early next

week before move to the north-northeast over the Central North

Atlantic.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Doppler weather radar indicated scattered showers

and isolated thunderstorms mostly across the surrounding coastal

waters, with few of them affecting the eastern and southeastern

sections of Puerto Rico overnight. Several Flood advisories were

issued for coastal municipalities across eastern, southern and

southeastern Puerto Rico. Under a south southeast wind flow most

of this activity dissipated or moved to the Atlantic coastal

waters by early in the morning. The overnight shower and

thunderstorm activity was associated with the moisture left

behind the tropical wave now across Hispaniola.

Some moisture associated with the ample circulation of Tropical

Storm Nicole, north of the region is expected to combine with

lingering moisture behind the tropical wave, daytime heating and

local effects to produce a new round of showers and thunderstorms

just along and north of Cordillera Central this afternoon and

evening. This will lead to periods of moderate to locally heavy

rainfall and possibly minor urban and small stream flooding.

An upper level trough is expected to move over the Northeast

Caribbean on Monday. This feature is expected to maintain a

relatively wet weather pattern across the region for the next

several days.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR but periods of SHRA/Isold TSRA en route

to Nrn Leeward Islands and USVI FM eastern PR terminals thru 09/14z.

SHRA and isolated TSRA expected to continue over the ATLC waters and

local Passages thru Sunday evening. Btwn 09/16z-09/22z, SHRA/TSRA

fcst to develop along and north of the mtn ranges of PR. Impacting

the flying area of TJSJ/TJBQ/TIST. Mtn top obscr and MVFR conds

expected. Light southerly winds will continue at SFC...incr 5-15 kt

from the WSW aft 09/14z.

&&

.MARINE...Tropical Storm Nicole will continue to send moderate

swells across the local Atlantic waters during the next few days.

Seas are expected to build to 5-7 feet across the local Atlantic

waters between Tuesday and Wednesday. Elsewhere...seas of 3-5 feet

expected through the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

SJU 90 77 91 77 / 40 20 40 10

STT 87 79 87 81 / 40 30 30 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Oct 10, 2016 4:28:18 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Oct 10, 2016 4:28:18 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
458 AM AST MON OCT 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Abundant moisture and local heating will pair up to
yield showers and thunderstorms in gentle winds for most of the
week in the surrounding waters and during the afternoons in
northern Puerto Rico.

At upper levels...A trough extends over the local area from a low
to the north. The low will drift southwest over the Dominican
Republic by Wednesday and high pressure will build northeast of
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. When low pressure forms
well north of the local area, flow becomes westerly with a weak
ridge passing through on Monday of next week. This high builds
over the Caribbean during that week.

At mid levels...When Tropical Storm Nicole moves north of the
area, high pressure northeast of us will link with high pressure
in the Gulf of Mexico across the local area. The high will weaken
early next week when a trough extends southwest across the western
Atlantic and into the western Caribbean. Moisture over the area
from a band of TS Nicole will lessen during the week.

At lower levels...High pressure in the north central Atlantic
will be replaced by a high now over the Great Lakes during the
course of the week. Tropical storm Nicole will strengthen and
move north northwest through Wednesday and then accelerate north
northeastward. The high pressure mentioned above wraps around
Nicole and provides a weak ridge over the local area until late
this week. During the following weekend and beyond a trough links
up between low pressure in the northwest Atlantic and the
southwest Caribbean.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Showers and isolated thunderstorms moved northeast
across the southeastern quadrant of the forecast area bringing
light amounts of rain to Saint Thomas and appreciably more to the
surrounding waters. As Nicole moves north northwestward the
trailing band of moisture out of the south will weaken and remain
generally southeast of Puerto Rico. Models suggest that there will
be enough moisture and instability to generate showers and
scattered to isolated thunderstorms over Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands this afternoon and continuing for most of the week.
Because of upper level troughing and good instability due to
temperatures reaching into the lower 90s inland, scattered
thunderstorms are expected, but rain amounts will generally be
modest and urban and small stream flooding should limited to local
areas where showers converge in light flow. Since precipitable
water remains almost constant and afternoon maximums vary little
from two inches this pattern will continue until Thursday. On
Thursday and Friday winds shift to a more easterly direction at
lower levels and showers move to the western side of Puerto Rico
until early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR expected across much of the terminals this
morning with VCSH across the Leeward and USVI taf sites. Btwn
10/16Z and 10/22Z, SHRA/TSRA are expected to develop along and
north of the mtn ranges of PR, impacting the flying area of
TJSJ/TJBQ. Mtn top obsc and MVFR conds expected. Additional
SHRA/TSRA could develop between the USVI terminals at the same
time. Light and variable winds will continue at the SFC early this
morning...incrg to 5-15 kt from the south aft 10/14z.

&&

.MARINE...Seas at buoy 41043 peaked at 9.5 to 10.0 feet between 09/21
and 10/03z and the predominant direction was northerly. The
wavewatch model was running 2 to 3 feet too low at that time and
this suggested a significant swell moving toward the local
islands. Nevertheless the models do not show these high seas
moving into the local area and assessing the impacts is
complicated by the extended outage of buoy 41053. It is suspected
that sustained winds from the south southwest are beating down the
swell generated by Nicole before they arrive in the local area.
Nevertheless the forecast for Monday was raised by a foot in
anticipation that some of this energy will reach the Atlantic
waters between 12 and 15 hours after it was initially registered
at the outer buoy. Additional swell is expected from both Nicole
and Matthew by Tuesday night when it is expected that small craft
advisories will be needed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 77 92 80 / 60 20 50 30
STT 87 81 88 80 / 50 40 40 30

Shoutbox

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Puerto Rico Weather

Post by cycloneye on Sept 21, 2016 4:36:32 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Sept 24, 2016 4:21:31 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Sept 28, 2016 4:25:53 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Sept 29, 2016 4:08:36 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Sept 30, 2016 4:31:37 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Oct 1, 2016 4:37:52 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Oct 2, 2016 4:26:47 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Oct 3, 2016 4:49:00 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Oct 4, 2016 4:26:47 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Oct 5, 2016 4:33:02 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Oct 6, 2016 4:20:36 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Oct 7, 2016 4:15:52 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Oct 8, 2016 4:34:00 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Oct 9, 2016 4:32:44 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Oct 10, 2016 4:28:18 GMT -6

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