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cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Oct 11, 2016 4:32:47 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Oct 11, 2016 4:32:47 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
513 AM AST TUE OCT 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Moisture will remain high over the area as Tropical
Storm Nicole recedes to the north. Although moisture will slowly
diminish through next weekend, showers and thunderstorms are
expected each day. Deeper and greater moisture may come in on
southwest flow early next week.

At upper levels...Low pressure in the Mona channel northwest of
Puerto Rico will settle over the Dominican Republic and dissipate.
By late Friday high pressure will ridge northeast over the local
area and connect to the high already in place northeast of the
local area. High pressure continues over South America and the
central Caribbean during the following week.

At mid levels...High pressure will ridge over the Leeward Islands
from the northeast as Tropical Storm Nicole moves away from the
local area to the north. High pressure will then continue over the
Greater Antilles Thursday through Sunday. A trough will extend
southwest over the western Atlantic and toward Panama early next
week...bringing copious moisture into the local area.

At lower levels...Tropical Storm Nicole moves north and away from
the area allowing high pressure to build southeast into the
Atlantic waters north of the area. Next week low pressure in the
southwest Caribbean deepens and re-connects with low pressure from
the former TS Nicole in a trough across the local area and
Hispaniola.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Precipitable water was found to be 2.22 inches in
the 11/00z sounding. A band from the tail of Nicole also
brought showers and thunderstorms to the waters south and east of
Puerto Rico Monday afternoon and evening. Showers were still
affecting Saint Croix and Saint Thomas and Saint John even after
4 AM AST. A second band was just clipping the northwest corner of
the forecast area with showers and thunderstorms. The GFS shows
the main band of TS Nicole on its eastern side and extending
across the eastern third of the forecast area this morning, but
the maximum moisture moves to the Leeward Islands during the day
today. This leaves the heaviest showers over northwest Puerto Rico
this afternoon. The models shy away from heavy precipitation over
northeast Puerto Rico as was seen yesterday, but winds have not
changed so much that some showers could not form given that
moisture continues over 2 inches of precipitable water. Although
the band that formed over the U.S. Virgin Islands is forecast to
move eastward, this is also not so evident in the radar or MIMIC
products, therefore will also continue with higher POPs east of
Puerto Rico as well.

Wednesday shows some drier air at 850 mb, however precipitable
water remains very close to 2 inches, and models do show good
showers over northwest Puerto Rico, but drying in the southeastern
portion of our forecast area.

Flow gradually shifts to the east and by Friday a more typical
pattern is expected as trade winds become prevalent. Next week the
GFS shows low pressure at low and mid levels in the southwest
Caribbean contributing to moisture advection south of a cold
front and shear line a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico that
will need to be monitored as it has indications of being able to
support strong moisture flow out of the deep tropics to our
southwest.

&&

.AVIATION...Prevailing VFR expected across the local terminals
through 11/16Z. Btwn 11/16Z and 11/22Z, SHRA/TSRA expected to
develop along and north of the mtn ranges of PR, impacting the
flying area of TJSJ/TJBQ. Mtn top obsc and MVFR conds expected.
Additional SHRA/TSRA could develop around the USVI terminals at the
same time. Light and VRB winds will continue at the SFC through
11/13Z...incrg to 5-15 kt from the south aft 11/14z with some sea
breeze variations which could cause light crosswinds at TJBQ from
the NNW.

&&

.MARINE...Seas have subsided 3 feet at buoy 41043 to 7 feet.
Meanwhile seas laden with swell from Matthew at buoy 41046 have
topped 10 feet. All models have been under forecasting and we
continue to expect small craft advisory seas to enter the local
Atlantic marine areas tonight. Conditions will likely remain
hazardous until Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 92 80 90 79 / 60 20 30 20
STT 88 80 88 80 / 40 40 40 30

&&

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Oct 13, 2016 4:39:54 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Oct 13, 2016 4:39:54 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
505 AM AST Thu Oct 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT low south of Hispanola will continue to shift farther
west over the next days,as a mid to upper level ridge will build
across the Northeast Caribbean. Powerful Hurricane Nicole is forecast
to move further northward into the North Central Atlantic over the
few days...allowing surface high pressure ridge to reestablish just
northeast of the local island chain. This will result in the deep
southerly flow to become more easterly allowing for a return of the
easterly trades by Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Few light to moderate showers continued to develop
over the coastal waters and move across parts of the south and
east coastal sections of some of the islands. Rainfall amounts
however were less than a tenth of an inch. Expect gradual clearing
by late morning leaving partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies. During
the afternoon, showers and mostly isolated thunderstorms can be expected
to develop mainly over the north central to northwestern sections
of PR. Afternoon convection will however quickly diminish by sunset
leaving partly cloudy to mostly clear skies during the rest of the
evening and overnight hours.

Similar conditions expected on Friday through Saturday, except for
the light southeasterly winds to become more easterly as Hurricane
Nicole moves further north of the region. A gradual improvement in
the overall weather conditions over the weekend and into early next
week, under a light easterly trade wind flow and lesser moisture
advection. By the middle of next week,recent model guidance continued
to suggest a return of a moist and unstable weather pattern to the
region. More on this later.

On another note, the warm afternoon high temperature created by
the prevailing southerly flow today and recent days should return
to near normal by Friday and over the upcoming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION....VFR conds expected at all TAF sites with a few passing
showers possible in and around the Leeward and USVI terminals as
well as JSJ overnight. Aft 13/16z SHRA/TSRA development expected
over North Puerto Rico, and this will result in mountain obscurations
as well as MVFR conds at JBQ/JMZ. Light sfc winds overnight, becoming
ESE at 10 knots or less with sea breeze variations aft 13/12z. Winds
ESE 12 kt or less gradually bcmg ENE with height by FL220.

&&

.MARINE...Long period northerly swell up to 7 feet will continue
across the Atlantic waters and Mona Passage at least until early
Friday morning. Thereafter, the northerly swell will slowly subside
before another long period northeasterly swell generated from Nicole
enters the local waters by early next week. A high surf advisory
remains in effect for the west through northeast coast of PR due
to large breaking wave action through later this evening. A high
rip current risk remains in effect for the same time and areas
including the southwest corner of PR, northern Culebra and the
northwest coast of St. Thomas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 92 78 91 78 / 30 10 20 20
STT 88 80 88 80 / 30 20 20 30

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 67,639 Location: Ponchatoula, LA Staff Member	Puerto Rico Weather Oct 13, 2016 6:37:49 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Oct 13, 2016 6:37:49 GMT -6 Maybe you escaped another hurricane season!
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cycloneye Category 5 Posts: 2,507	Puerto Rico Weather Oct 14, 2016 4:09:27 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by cycloneye on Oct 14, 2016 4:09:27 GMT -6 Oct 13, 2016 6:37:49 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT said: Maybe you escaped another hurricane season! Yes indeed.

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Oct 14, 2016 4:09:59 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Oct 14, 2016 4:09:59 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
553 AM AST Fri Oct 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS....A mid level ridge will continue to build across the
Northeast Caribbean over the next few days. surface high pressure
to build north of the islands. As a result...easterly trade winds
will dominates the local region through the weekend. Moist and
unstable pattern is possible once again by midweek next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Only light passing showers were noted over the U.S.
Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico. Partly cloudy to clear
skies prevailed elsewhere. Local area will remain under the
influence of a weak area of surface high pressure. This area of
high pressure will produce east to east northeast trade winds
across the region.

Locally induced showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
this afternoon mainly across the western interior and southwestern
sections of Puerto Rico. Weather pattern will not change much
next several days as upper level ridge dominates the local area.
It is not until Tuesday, better chances for showers could be
expected...as low level moisture is forecast to increase by that
time.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions expected across the local
flying area...with only passing SHRA en route btwn the Leeward
Islands and the U.S.V.I. in the morning. After 14/16z, SHRA/TSRA
development expected over western and Interior PR, as well as
downwind from El Yunque and the U.S. Virgin Islands. As a result,
mnt obsc as well as MVFR conds at TJBQ/TJMZ with VCTY at TJSJ can
be expected. Light and variable winds, expected to becomes more from
the East at 10 knots or less with sea breeze variations after 14/13z.

&&

.MARINE...Seas has diminished below 7 feet. Therefore...small
craft advisories were allowed to expire. However...Small Craft
should exercise caution across most coastal waters. In
addition...very dangerous rip currents will continue through at
least tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 90 78 / 30 20 20 30
STT 88 78 89 78 / 30 10 20 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Oct 15, 2016 4:27:06 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Oct 15, 2016 4:27:06 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
549 AM AST Sat Oct 15 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Mid to upper level ridge will build and remain in
place across the region today through the weekend. Ridge is then
forecast to erode by early next week as a broad trough will move
across the Western Atlantic. Surface high pressure ridge will build
across the west and central Atlantic to maintain light to
moderate easterly trade winds through the weekend. Recent
satellite imagery suggests a weak easterly perturbation and patch
of low level moisture now moving across the Northeast Caribbean
with a slot of drier air quickly approaching the Lesser Antilles.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Some light passing showers were observed across the
Atlantic coastal waters overnight. Some of these showers brushed
the northern coast of Puerto Rico. A slot of drier air east of the
local islands...will move across the region later today.
Therefore...limited shower activity is expected through much of
the day. However...daytime heating and local effects will combined
with available moisture to produced scattered showers with
isolated thunderstorms over the western interior and southwestern
sections of Puerto Rico.

Moisture will increase by mid week as broad trough moves across
the Western Atlantic. This trough will induce a moist southerly
flow across the region which will result in better chances for
showers and thunderstorms beginning on Tuesday and continuing
until at least Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions expected this morning across the
local Flying area with only VCSH expected en route between the
Leeward Islands and USVI. After 15/16z, SHRA/TSRA development
expected over western and Interior PR. As a result, mountain
obscurations as well as brief periods of MVFR conditions are
possible at TJBQ/TJMZ with VCSH at TJSJ. Expect easterly winds at 10
to 15 knots with sea some sea breeze variations aft 15/13z.

&&

.MARINE...Seas up to 5 feet and winds up to 15 knots are expected.
Moderate risk of rip current is expected along the north facing
beaches of Puerto Rico today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 77 88 77 / 20 30 30 30
STT 89 78 88 77 / 30 30 30 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Oct 16, 2016 4:57:35 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Oct 16, 2016 4:57:35 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
533 AM AST Sun Oct 16 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Light easterly winds will continue through the
weekend until a weak SFC low develops over the Bahamas, causing
the local winds to shift to a more southerly direction on Monday
and bringing an increase in moisture by Tuesday which will linger
for the rest of the week. Upper level ridge is expected to erode
by Tuesday as an upper low approaches from the NW, but then an
upper high pressure moves in over the local area on Wednesday.
Locally induced showers expected to continue today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...limited shower activity was observed over land areas
overnight. Only light passing showers were seen mainly along the
north coast of Puerto Rico. Local area remains under the influence
of an upper level ridge which is limiting the shower development across
the region. For today, available moisture will combined with day
time heating and local effect to produce scattered showers with
thunderstorms mainly over the western interior sections of Puerto
Rico.

The moisture is expected to increase early this week,bringing a
better chance of showers and thunderstorm across the region. A
surface low is expected to develop over Bahamas with another
surface low expected to develop across the southwestern Caribbean
by Tuesday. These features will cause a wind shift to the
southeast late Monday into Tuesday and for the rest of the week.
This shift in wind direction will also cause deeper moisture to
move into the area from the south, which may combine with an
approaching upper low on Tuesday. If this situation materialize,
will cause an increase in shower and thunderstorm potential over
the local area from Tuesday until at least Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected across the local flying area.
Passing SHRA expected over eastern PR through 16/16z. Aft 16/16z,
SHRA/ Isold TSRA development possible over western and Interior
PR. As a result, mountain top obscurations as well as periods of
MVFR conds possible at TJBQ/TJMZ with VCSH at TJSJ. Surface wind
from the East at 10 to 15 knots with some sea breeze variations
aft 16/14z.

&&

.MARINE...seas up to 5 feet and winds up to 15 knots are expected
over the coastal waters. High rip current risk is expected through
at least Monday afternoon. Refer to latest CFWSJU product for
latest information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 90 77 / 30 20 30 20
STT 88 78 88 79 / 30 20 20 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Oct 17, 2016 4:38:18 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Oct 17, 2016 4:38:18 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
633 AM AST Mon Oct 17 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A southerly wind flow is expected to dominate the local area, as
a surface low developed to the East of Bahamas. This southerly
wind flow will interact with a stationary frontal boundary,
associated with Nicole, to bring an increase in tropical moisture
across the islands through at least mid week. In addition, an
upper level ridge is expected to slowly erode as an upper low
approaches the Lesser Antilles, but as this low moves closer, an
upper high pressure build over the region. Locally induced
showers and possible thunderstorms are expected mainly along and
to the North of the Cordillera Central of Puerto Rico, as well as
passing showers over the U.S. Virgin Islands and their surrounding
waters each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
In general, fair weather conditions were observed across the
islands overnight. The minimum temperatures dropped below 80s
across the coastal areas and below 70s over the Mountainous areas.
A dry air mass is expected to move across the islands today,
however afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected due to
the local effects and diurnal heating.

As the surface low develop to the East of Bahamas a southerly
wind flow is expected to prevail across the region. This wind
flow will bring deep tropical moisture across the area between
Tuesday and Wednesday. Therefore, the local effect, diurnal
heating and the available moisture will increase the potential for
localized flooding mainly along and to the North of the
Cordillera Central during that period.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected at all TAF sites overnight. Aft
17/16z, SHRA/ Isold TSRA development psbl ovr western and Interior
PR. As a result, mtn top obscr as well as prds of MVFR conds psbl at
TJBQ/TJMZ with VCSH at TJSJ. Light and variable winds overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
A northerly swell is producing dangerous marine conditions across
the coastal areas of Puerto Rico and Northern U.S. Virgin Islands.
As a result a small craft advisory is in effect across the
Atlantic and Caribbean passages. In addition dangerous rip
currents are expected along the northern coastline of Puerto Rico.
Also, long period northerly swell are expected to move across the
local waters through the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 77 91 79 / 30 20 50 20
STT 86 80 86 81 / 20 30 40 20

&&

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Oct 18, 2016 6:51:52 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Oct 18, 2016 6:51:52 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
717 AM AST Tue Oct 18 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An induce surface trough due to the interaction of a broad
Surface Low Pressure to the east of Bahamas and a frontal boundary
associated with Nicole is producing unstable conditions across the
region today. In addition, is inducing a southerly wind flow
across the forecast area, which is expected at least until
Late Wednesday or Thursday. Thereafter, winds are to become more
easterly as the Atlantic ridge will build and sink southward
across the Northeastern Caribbean.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms moved across the southern municipalities
overnight. Then a squall line moved inland across West Puerto Rico
from the Mona Passage early this morning. This squall line produce
frequent lightning, gusty winds and heavy rainfall across these
municipalities. Several Special weather Statements as well as a
Flood advisory were issued across the west, west interior and
southern municipalities. This activity is expected to continue
moving northeastward, as a result, the municipalities of the
interior, north, south and east PR can expect inclement weather
with periods of moderate to heavy rain, frequent lightning,
ponding of waters on roadways, gusty winds, urban and small stream
flooding during the next one to three hours.

After the passage of this squall line, tranquil weather
conditions are expected until the afternoon hours. However,
showers and thunderstorms are expected over most of Puerto Rico as
an area of low pressure induced a very moist southerly flow across
the region. This moist southerly flow will combined with favorable
atmospheric conditions to produce scattered showers with
thunderstorms over most of Puerto Rico this afternoon, but mainly
along the northern slopes of the island. But keep in mind, that
cloudiness could inhibit afternoon convection. This wet pattern is
expected to continue through at least midweek. As a result of, expect
another good chance for enhanced afternoon convection on Wednesday
with moisture advection and instability expected to decrease and
diminish by Thursday and into the upcoming weekend, as an upper
level high pressure build over the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA expected to continue across mainland Puerto Rico, as a
squall line move northeastward across the island. Some of these
showers are expected to create brief periods of MVFR and IFR at
TJBQ/TJMZ/TJPS/TJSJ at least until 15z. Then SHRA/TSRA are
expected to decrease. Medium confidence on fcst thru 16z,
however, SHRA/TSRA should develop along and to the north of the
mtn ranges of PR on Tuesday afternoon. Low level southerly winds
will continue at 5-12 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
A long period north to northeast swell between 6 and 10 feet are
expected across the Atlantic waters, and Caribbean Passages
through at least wednesday. As a result, a coastal flood and high
surf advisories continue in effect for the north facing coasts of
Puerto Rico and Northern U.S. Virgin Islands. A Small Craft
advisories are in effect for the Atlantic waters and local
passages. In addition, there is a high risk of rip currents along the
northwest through northeast facing beaches of Puerto Rico and
Culebra, Vieques as well as the Northern USVI and the east end in
Saint Croix.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 78 91 79 / 60 20 20 20
STT 90 79 89 80 / 40 20 20 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Oct 19, 2016 4:45:49 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Oct 19, 2016 4:45:49 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
550 AM AST Wed Oct 19 2016

.SYNOPSIS...As a mid to upper level trough across the western
Atlantic and into the northern Caribbean weakens during the next
two days or so...a ridge pattern aloft will slowly build across
the eastern Caribbean and over the local islands. Meanwhile...
continue to expect cloudiness and a moist air mass across the
forecast area throughout the day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Although weather conditions are expected to slowly
improve Thursday and into the upcoming weekend...cloudiness and
a moist air mass will prevail today across the forecast area...
with periods of showers and thunderstorms possible. The low level
moisture across the forecast area is pulled by a surface low
north of Hispaniola. At this time, the highest chance of showers
and thunderstorms is along the south and west coast of Puerto Rico
as well as over the USVI and mainly advected by the flow. If there
are breaks in cloud cover, locally induced showers and thunderstorms
will develop and spread across the rest of the forecast area. Due
to already saturated soils, any prolonged rainfall will result in
urban and small stream flooding as well as sharp rises along
rivers and mudslides in areas of steep terrain.

As the surface low moves away and trough aloft weakens...ridge
pattern will build across the area with erosion of low level
moisture expected. Low level moisture is expected to erode as soon
as Thursday. This sharp decrease in low level moisture is expected
to prevail trough the upcoming weekend. However...locally induced
showers and thunderstorms are expected each afternoon across
the western interior of Puerto Rico.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds expected across the local terminals through
19/13Z with CIGS at around FL100. Winds expected to be light and
variable through 19/13Z...becoming mainly southerly thereafter at
around 10kt. VCSH across the terminals today...mainly for the USVI
and TJBQ/TJMZ. Winds becoming light and variable again after 20/00Z.

&&

.MARINE...Although swells and seas are expected to slowly subside
today...hazardous marine conditions will continue to prevail
across the Atlantic waters and local passages. Seas 5 to 7 feet
with occasional seas up to 9 feet in northerly swells resulting in
breaking waves around 10 feet this morning but subsiding.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 79 90 78 / 20 10 30 20
STT 87 79 89 81 / 30 30 30 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Oct 20, 2016 4:39:26 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Oct 20, 2016 4:39:26 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
510 AM AST Thu Oct 20 2016

.SYNOPSIS...The chance of widespread shower and thunder activity
will continue to decrease across the forecast area as an upper
trough across the western Atlantic and into the Greater Antilles
weakens, and a ridge pattern aloft builds across the eastern
Caribbean and over the local islands. A prevailing southeasterly
wind flow will bring warm to hot temperatures across the northern
slopes of Puerto Rico during the next few days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Variably cloudy skies prevailed across the forecast
area with passing showers observed across the local waters as well
as the southern coastal areas of PR. Minimum temperatures were
between the upper 70s and low 80s under a light southerly wind
flow.

As a mid to upper level trough across the western Atlantic and
into the Greater Antilles weakens, a ridge pattern aloft will
build across the eastern Caribbean with a sharp decrease in
precipitable water. This feature is expected to hold across the
forecast area through Monday. As a result, under a building ridge,
and a decreasing trend in precipitable water --but remaining in
the normal range-- locally induced afternoon showers and
thunderstorms are expected each day. These showers and thunderstorms
will be focused over, north and northwest of the Cordillera
Central today through Saturday under a southeasterly wind flow. In
fact, this southeasterly wind flow will also result in warm to hot
temperatures across the northern slopes of Puerto Rico during the
next few days. Trade winds will return to the forecast area Sunday
and early next week, focusing afternoon showers and thunderstorms
over west PR Sunday and Monday and also providing relief to the
expected warm to hot temperatures.

Ridge aloft will weaken early next week as a broad trough moves
into the west and central Atlantic. Its associated surface
boundary will induce a surface trough east of the forecast area
that will result in moisture pooling across the eastern Caribbean.
As a result, the chance of shower and thunder activity will once
again increase by midweek next week.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds expected across the local terminals through
20/13Z with CIGS at around FL120. Winds expected to be light and
variable through 20/13Z...becoming mainly southeasterly thereafter
at around 10kt. VCSH across the terminals today...mainly for the
USVI and TJBQ/TJMZ. Possible VCTS for TJBQ after 20/17Z. Winds
becoming light and variable again after 21/00Z.

&&

.MARINE...Marine conditions will continue to improve, however
hazardous seas are still expected this morning across the
Atlantic offshore waters and the Mona Passage. Seas 5 to 7
feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet but subsiding.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 78 91 78 / 30 10 40 20
STT 89 80 89 81 / 20 30 30 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Oct 21, 2016 4:21:28 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Oct 21, 2016 4:21:28 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Juan PR

545 AM AST Fri Oct 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A mid to upper level ridge will continue to build

across the forecast area as trough aloft across the southwest

Atlantic continues to weaken. A surface high pressure across

the north central Atlantic will continue to promote a gentle

to moderate southeasterly wind flow today...becoming easterly

the upcoming weekend. The prevailing southeasterly wind flow

will continue to result in warm to hot temperatures across

the northern slopes of Puerto Rico today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Variably cloudy skies prevailed across the forecast

area with passing showers observed across the local waters as well

as the southern coastal areas of PR. Minimum temperatures were

between the upper 70s and low 80s under a light southeasterly

wind flow.

Under a building ridge pattern and precipitable water near the

normal range, continue to expect a few passing showers across

the windward areas, followed by locally induced afternoon showers

and thunderstorms. These afternoon showers and thunderstorms will

be focused north and northwest of the Cordillera Central today

and Saturday under a southeasterly wind flow. In fact, this

southeasterly wind flow will continue to result in warm to hot

temperatures along the northern slopes of Puerto Rico during the

next two days or so.

Trade winds will return to the forecast area Sunday and early

next week, focusing the afternoon showers and thunderstorms over

west PR Sunday and Monday and also providing relief to the

expected warm to hot temperatures. Moisture is expected to pool

across the forecast area Monday afternoon and continue throughout

the end of next workweek as the ridge pattern aloft weakens in

response to a broad trough moving across the west and central

Atlantic. Its associated surface boundary will induce a surface

trough across the eastern Caribbean which is expected to increase

the chance of shower and thunder activity across the local

islands.

&&

.AVIATION...Passing -SHRA possible at TJPS/TIST/TISX, as well as

in the VCTY of TJSJ early this morning, but most of the SHRA are

expected over the surrounding waters. After 21/16z, SHRA/TSRA

expected along and to the west of the Cordillera Central, to

result in brief MVFR at TJMZ/TJBQ, afternoon SHRA are possible too

at TJSJ/TIST/TISX. This activity is expected til 21/22z. Winds

expected from the SE at less than 15kt, however locally higher

in/around SHRA/TSRA, and sea breeze variations aft 21/13z.

&&

.MARINE...Tranquil marine conditions are expected to prevail

during the next few days with seas below 5 feet and winds up to

15 knots. An increase in shower and thunder activity expected

early next workweek as a surface trough dominates the eastern

Caribbean.

&&

.CLIMATE...A record warmest low set at the primary climate data

sites yesterday. A record warmest low of 82 degrees was set at

San Juan Area. This broke the old record of 79 set back in 2014.

A record warmest low of 84 degrees was set at Cyril E. King

Airport in St Thomas. This broke the old record of 81 set back in

1998. This warmest low also tied the warmest low observed for any

given day. A record warmest low of 82 degrees was set at Henry E.

Rohlsen airport in St Croix. This broke the old record of 81

degrees set back in 1987.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

SJU 91 79 91 79 / 30 20 20 20

STT 89 80 89 80 / 30 30 30 30

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Oct 22, 2016 4:34:35 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Oct 22, 2016 4:34:35 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
558 AM AST Sat Oct 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Ridge pattern aloft across the eastern Caribbean will continue to
hold through the weekend. As a polar trough moves across the
Western Atlantic on Sunday, the ridge pattern is expected to
weaken by early next week. At lower levels, a frontal system is
expected to moves across the Western Atlantic and remain to the
north of the local islands during the weekend and early next week.
As a result, moisture is expected to pool across the local area.
Therefore, expect passing showers across the windward sections of
the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico during the overnight and
early morning hours, followed by afternoon showers and
thunderstorms mainly across the interior and to the west of Puerto
Rico each day. Although, easterly winds are expected to return,
light winds and warm/hot temperatures are expected through the
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Satellite imagery showed a layer of mid to upper level clouds over
the islands. Also, the Doppler radar detected a showers across the
surrounding waters, but some of them moved across the windward
sections of the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. However,
rainfall accumulations were minimal. Once again, the minimum
coastal temperatures were around low 80s.

Under a ridge pattern and enough low level moisture, continue to
expect a few passing showers across the windward areas, followed
by locally induced afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The
afternoon activity should focused across the interior and
northwestern sections of Puerto Rico, as well as downwind from the
U.S. Virgin Islands. In addition, some showers could develop
downwind from El Yunque to affect the San Juan Metro Area late
this morning and into the afternoon. By this afternoon a
southeasterly wind flow will result in warm to hot temperatures
along the northern slopes of Puerto Rico.

A frontal boundary is expected to remain to the north of the local
area through the early part of the upcoming week. A strong surface
high pressure behind this front is expected to establish across
the western Atlantic. This pattern will shift winds from the
northeast Sunday-Monday. Although, trade winds will return to the
forecast area by Sunday, light winds will continue to result in
warm/hot temperatures, with afternoon showers and thunderstorms
focusing across and to the west of the Cordillera Central by early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all TAF sites
through 22/16z. After 22/16Z, brief periods of MVFR conditions with
mountain obscurations can be expected across TJMZ and TJBQ in
SHRA/isolated TSRA. Low level winds will continue mainly from the
southeast at 10 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Tranquil seas are expected through the next several days with
guidance indicating seas no higher than 5 feet. Winds will remain
below 15 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 78 90 79 / 20 30 30 50
STT 89 82 89 82 / 20 30 30 50

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Oct 23, 2016 4:54:57 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Oct 23, 2016 4:54:57 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Juan PR

549 AM AST Sun Oct 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

Ridge pattern aloft continues to weaken, as a polar trough moves

across the Western Atlantic. At lower levels, a frontal system is

expected to moves across the Western Atlantic and remain to the

north of the local islands through mid week. As a result,

moisture is expected to pool across the local area. Therefore,

expect passing showers across the windward sections of the U.S.

Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico during the overnight and early

morning hours, followed by afternoon showers and thunderstorms

mainly across the interior and across the north and south slopes

of the Cordillera Central of Puerto Rico each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The mid to upper level cloud layer dissipated overnight, and the

Doppler radar detected trade wind showers across the local waters.

Some of these showers moved across the windward sections of the

U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, but without any significant

rainfall accumulation. The coastal minimum temperatures were in

the upper 70s and low 80s and the wind was from the east at less

than 10 mph.

Showers are expected to continue across the coastal waters and the

windward sections of the islands this morning. Then, the

available moisture will combine with daytime heating and local

effects to induce showers and a couple of thunderstorms over the

interior and across the north and south slopes of the Cordillera

Central of Puerto Rico. Showers and thunderstorms should last

longer due to the light winds across the region. Therefore, a

slight to moderate risk of flooding is expected across these

sections.

A surface induce trough is expected to reach the local islands on

Monday and Tuesday. Moisture is expected to pool across the local

area through at least mid week. Therefore, shower activity should

increase during these days with more frequent trade wind showers

across the windward sections of the islands overnight and early

in the morning, followed by afternoon showers and thunderstorms

across the interior and to the west of Puerto Rico each day. In

addition, more seasonal daytime temperatures can be expected

during this week.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all TAF sites

through 23/16z with VCSH at JSJ/IST/ISX and Leeward terminals. After

23/16Z, periods of MVFR conditions possible at all PR TAF sites in

SHRA/isolated TSRA under a light and variable wind flow at 10 knots

or less. Mountain obscurations across central PR expected.

&&

.MARINE...

Tranquil marine conditions are expected to continue through the

next this week with seas below 5 feet and winds around 15 knots.

Today`s rip currents risk is low across the local beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

SJU 88 79 89 79 / 30 50 50 50

STT 88 79 89 78 / 30 50 50 50

cycloneye
Category 5

Posts: 2,507

Puerto Rico Weather Oct 24, 2016 4:05:42 GMT -6

Quote

Post by cycloneye on Oct 24, 2016 4:05:42 GMT -6

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Juan PR

534 AM AST Mon Oct 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Upper level ridge will weaken over the next few days

as a broad polar low moves over the East Coast of USA and the

Northwest Atlantic. This upper level pattern will hold through at

least midweek...then an upper level ridge builds again over the

Eastern Caribbean the second part of the week. At low levels...

a frontal boundary about 450 miles northeast of Puerto Rico this

morning will stall north of the islands over the next couple of

days. However...the shearline/pre-frontal trough will keep the

area fairly moist and unstable most of the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The shearline/pre-frontal has induced the development

of showers and thunderstorms across the regional waters and portions

of the local islands during overnight. Some showers have moved inland

across the north and east coastal sections of Puerto Rico...producing

up to one quarter of an inch in some spots. Northeast flow at low

levels will continue to favor passing showers across the north coastal

sections of Puerto Rico the rest of the morning. Then...high resolution

models suggest deep convection across the Central Interior...West...

Southwest and South Central Puerto Rico this afternoon. As a result...

urban and small stream flooding will be possible across portions

of the Southwest Quadrant of Puerto Rico.

Over the next several days, environmental conditions remain

favorable for shower and thunderstorm activity under the influence

of the shearline /pre-frontal trough and a short-wave trough

aloft. Therefore...a few round of convection is possible everyday

across portions of the islands through at least midweek.

Although...upper level ridge is forecast to build over the region

later in the week...moisture content remains high as a tropical

wave crosses the local are between Thursday and Friday. In

summary...moist and unstable pattern will likely prevail most of

the work week under the influence of the shearline/prefrontal

trough and then the tropical wave.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected early in the forecast period.

However, TSRA/SHRA over the Atlantic waters and northeasterly

steering winds could bring some showers near the northern terminals

of the islands with brief periods of MVFR conditions. After 16z

SHRA/TSRA will develop arnd the Cordillera Central and downstream

from El Yunque. Brief MVFR expected at TJMZ/TJPS. Mtn obscurations

are expected. Winds NE at 5-15 kt up through FL200. Sea breeze

variations aft 14z.

&&

.MARINE...Tranquil marine conditions will prevail across the local

waters most of the week. Winds of 10-15 knots and seas of 3-5 feet

are forecast through at least midweek. Then...winds will subside to

5-10 knots as a surface low moves northeast of the islands late this

week. No Small Craft is anticipated during the work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

SJU 89 79 88 77 / 50 50 50 50

STT 89 78 89 78 / 50 50 50 50

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Puerto Rico Weather

Post by cycloneye on Oct 11, 2016 4:32:47 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Oct 13, 2016 4:39:54 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Oct 13, 2016 6:37:49 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Oct 14, 2016 4:09:27 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Oct 14, 2016 4:09:59 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Oct 15, 2016 4:27:06 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Oct 16, 2016 4:57:35 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Oct 17, 2016 4:38:18 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Oct 18, 2016 6:51:52 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Oct 19, 2016 4:45:49 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Oct 20, 2016 4:39:26 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Oct 21, 2016 4:21:28 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Oct 22, 2016 4:34:35 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Oct 23, 2016 4:54:57 GMT -6

Post by cycloneye on Oct 24, 2016 4:05:42 GMT -6

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