Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jan 27, 2014 21:46:28 GMT -6
HOUSTON:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
945 PM CST MON JAN 27 2014
.UPDATE...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS MEXICO WILL
ULTIMATELY BE THE THE SPARK THAT INITIATES WHATEVER LIFT WILL
GENERATE TUESDAY PRECIPITATION. WHILE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO TRACK
THE PROGRESSION...OR DOWNSTREAM EVOLUTION...OF ENHANCED OMEGA/PVA
PRODUCED BY THESE WEAK WAVES THEY ARE NEVERTHELESS A MARKER TO
TRACK OR FOLLOW. TONIGHT'S UPDATES WERE TO TEMPS/POPS/WX THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MORE OF AN ADJUSTMENT. FOR POPS HAVE
BLENDED THE 00Z NAM AND THE 12Z WRF (ARW) OF SWATHING
HIGH CHANCE/LOW QPF UP NORTH DURING THE MORNING...TRANSITIONING
THIS FURTHER SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE COAST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BEGIN AS LIGHT
RAIN OR SPRINKLES BEFORE DAWN...TURNING OVER TO A WINTER MIX OF
EITHER FREEZING RAIN OR LIGHT SLEET ALONG AND NORTH THE HIGHWAY
105 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS PRECIP TYPE WILL SPREAD
TOWARDS THE COAST FROM MID-LATE AM THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE RELATIVELY WARM BUT...JUST UPSTREAM...
TEMPS/DEW POINTS ARE BELOW FREEZING/SINGLE DIGITS. THIS LOWER
LAYER DRY AIR FILTERING IN MAY THWART PRE-DAWN PRECIPITATION.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SATURATION FROM PACIFIC MOISTURE HIGH
ENOUGH INTO THE UPPER LAYERS TOMORROW MORNING FOR ICE CRYSTALS/
SUPERCOOLED DROPLETS TO PARTIALLY MELT WITHIN A WARMER 5-10K FT
LAYER...THEN PARTIALLY RE-FREEZE INTO SLEET IN THE LOWER 5K FT.
ROADWAYS MAY BECOME WET WITH EARLY DAY DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT
RAIN...THEN FREEZE THROUGH THE DAY. ICE FORMING ON ELEVATED ROADS
AND BRIDGES WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT FOR TRAVEL TOMORROW. ALL AND
ALL...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS EVENT WILL UNFOLD SIMILAR TO
FRIDAY'S EVENT. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE IS THAT THERE APPEARS TO BE
LESS NORTHERN SNOW ACCUMULATION AND THERE MAY BE MORE OF A SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA SLEET/ICE PROBLEM GOING INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING HOURS.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
945 PM CST MON JAN 27 2014
.UPDATE...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS MEXICO WILL
ULTIMATELY BE THE THE SPARK THAT INITIATES WHATEVER LIFT WILL
GENERATE TUESDAY PRECIPITATION. WHILE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO TRACK
THE PROGRESSION...OR DOWNSTREAM EVOLUTION...OF ENHANCED OMEGA/PVA
PRODUCED BY THESE WEAK WAVES THEY ARE NEVERTHELESS A MARKER TO
TRACK OR FOLLOW. TONIGHT'S UPDATES WERE TO TEMPS/POPS/WX THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MORE OF AN ADJUSTMENT. FOR POPS HAVE
BLENDED THE 00Z NAM AND THE 12Z WRF (ARW) OF SWATHING
HIGH CHANCE/LOW QPF UP NORTH DURING THE MORNING...TRANSITIONING
THIS FURTHER SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE COAST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BEGIN AS LIGHT
RAIN OR SPRINKLES BEFORE DAWN...TURNING OVER TO A WINTER MIX OF
EITHER FREEZING RAIN OR LIGHT SLEET ALONG AND NORTH THE HIGHWAY
105 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS PRECIP TYPE WILL SPREAD
TOWARDS THE COAST FROM MID-LATE AM THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE RELATIVELY WARM BUT...JUST UPSTREAM...
TEMPS/DEW POINTS ARE BELOW FREEZING/SINGLE DIGITS. THIS LOWER
LAYER DRY AIR FILTERING IN MAY THWART PRE-DAWN PRECIPITATION.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SATURATION FROM PACIFIC MOISTURE HIGH
ENOUGH INTO THE UPPER LAYERS TOMORROW MORNING FOR ICE CRYSTALS/
SUPERCOOLED DROPLETS TO PARTIALLY MELT WITHIN A WARMER 5-10K FT
LAYER...THEN PARTIALLY RE-FREEZE INTO SLEET IN THE LOWER 5K FT.
ROADWAYS MAY BECOME WET WITH EARLY DAY DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT
RAIN...THEN FREEZE THROUGH THE DAY. ICE FORMING ON ELEVATED ROADS
AND BRIDGES WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT FOR TRAVEL TOMORROW. ALL AND
ALL...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS EVENT WILL UNFOLD SIMILAR TO
FRIDAY'S EVENT. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE IS THAT THERE APPEARS TO BE
LESS NORTHERN SNOW ACCUMULATION AND THERE MAY BE MORE OF A SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA SLEET/ICE PROBLEM GOING INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING HOURS.
