Post by sjbpgal-St. John Parish on Jan 25, 2014 8:48:10 GMT -6
We're getting to the three-day time frame for this possible event. I've seen forecast models show an event long term only to lose it in the middle term to have it return 2 or fewer days before the event. As always with winter weather events down here it's a matter of wait and see. Like with this last event, we didn't know we were going to get ice, pretty much until it happened. They're tough to predict.
It's hard to believe we're actually discussing the remote possibility of another winter storm along the gulf coast. I'm still in awe looking out the window this morning seeing all the ice and thinking to myself, "that was just an advisory, the real deal may be in a few days".
Seriously though, today is Saturday, we're talking about precipitation starting as early as Monday...whether that be rain or anything else, that's getting into the short range. All mentioning of anything frozen has also been taken out of my forecast. One thing I do not understand is most models are keeping the moisture along the immediate gulf, but Jackson has snow in their forecast starting on Monday night. I haven't seen many models put a blanket of precipitation across central Mississippi except for the NAM.
Just as I had a good feeling about yesterday's "storm", I have an even better feeling about this next one.
Last Edit: Jan 25, 2014 9:14:06 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT
Post by flora... Covington, near CHS on Jan 25, 2014 9:19:03 GMT -6
Goodness, this is becoming exciting and scary at the same time with each updated model.. While I would love 5 inches of snow, the thought of a thicker ice cover than we just had makes me uncomfortable with the dangerous possibilities. O_o
One thing I do not understand is most models are keeping the moisture along the immediate gulf, but Jackson has snow in their forecast starting on Monday night. I haven't seen many models put a blanket of precipitation across central Mississippi except for the NAM.
Our office has been watching the little piece of energy coming out of the northwest for a couple of days now. That snow has been in the forecast since Thursday. Our office is banking on that piece of energy combining with the Gulf disturbance to enhance precipitation over our area. The SREF emsembles, NAM, CMC to some extent and some GFS ensembles are hinting at it. That said, the freezing layer over this area looks a little shallow in the NAM soundings, too.
The soundings aren't really matching up with the snow depth maps. The freezing column looks only a couple of thousand feet deep. Looks waaaay more icy than snowy to me at this point.
While I agree, the warm layer looks twice as small on this run and with wetbulbing could be why the model shows so much more snow on this run. But the way I look at it is regardless things are looking really NASTY.
I'd like to hear ndg opinion on the NAM skew T's since he's a lot more experienced with them than I am.
While I know this storm is a completely different entity than the last, and models will handle each situation differently, the NAM is pretty scary in the aspect that it did not show anything for this last storm.
Dylan, I'd like to hear his thoughts as well. If you go back to your post and put an ampersand in front of NDG, it'll tag him, and he'll be notified to read that one post.
Sort of like this... DYLAN FEDERICO read this. You just have to know their actual username, not the display name (like yours is different). To find that, just hover your mouse over the user's display name in the mini profile on left.