January 27 - 29, 2014 Winter Storm Discussion

sjbpgal-St. John Parish
Category 3

Posts: 771

January 27 - 29, 2014 Winter Storm Discussion Jan 25, 2014 8:48:10 GMT -6

Post by sjbpgal-St. John Parish on Jan 25, 2014 8:48:10 GMT -6

We're getting to the three-day time frame for this possible event. I've seen forecast models show an event long term only to lose it in the middle term to have it return 2 or fewer days before the event. As always with winter weather events down here it's a matter of wait and see. Like with this last event, we didn't know we were going to get ice, pretty much until it happened. They're tough to predict.

Randy - Brandon, MS GCWX Supporter Posts: 3,162	January 27 - 29, 2014 Winter Storm Discussion Jan 25, 2014 8:52:08 GMT -6 via mobile grayskies likes this Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Randy - Brandon, MS on Jan 25, 2014 8:52:08 GMT -6 12z NAM ends its run with an ice storm for the ages for SELA. Sheesh.

sjbpgal-St. John Parish Category 3 Posts: 771	January 27 - 29, 2014 Winter Storm Discussion Jan 25, 2014 8:52:58 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by sjbpgal-St. John Parish on Jan 25, 2014 8:52:58 GMT -6 Ugh hate ice storms, this last one was bad enough.

cajungal Category 5 Posts: 5,097 Member is Online	January 27 - 29, 2014 Winter Storm Discussion Jan 25, 2014 8:55:55 GMT -6 via mobile Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by cajungal on Jan 25, 2014 8:55:55 GMT -6 I don't want another ice storm. Our whole AC unit froze up last night and it was not fun. We were lucky we were even able to heat our house. What does it take to get snow around here? Geez
	Last Edit: Jan 25, 2014 8:59:08 GMT -6 by cajungal 60 miles southwest of New Orleans) Thibodaux, La

coffeecups
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January 27 - 29, 2014 Winter Storm Discussion Jan 25, 2014 9:00:07 GMT -6

Post by coffeecups on Jan 25, 2014 9:00:07 GMT -6

Jan 25, 2014 8:55:55 GMT -6 cajungal said:

I don't want another ice storm. Her whole AC unit froze up last night and it was not fun. We were lucky we were even able to hear our house. What does it take to get snow around here? Geez

I guess this is like casting out a deaf and dumb spirit. It will take prayer and fasting, especially fasting, since the prayer part doesn't seem to be working--at least for me. lol

sjbpgal-St. John Parish
Category 3

Posts: 771

January 27 - 29, 2014 Winter Storm Discussion Jan 25, 2014 9:03:11 GMT -6

Post by sjbpgal-St. John Parish on Jan 25, 2014 9:03:11 GMT -6

Jan 25, 2014 9:00:07 GMT -6 coffeecups said:

Jan 25, 2014 8:55:55 GMT -6 cajungal said:

I don't want another ice storm. Her whole AC unit froze up last night and it was not fun. We were lucky we were even able to hear our house. What does it take to get snow around here? Geez

I guess this is like casting out a deaf and dumb spirit. It will take prayer and fasting, especially fasting, since the prayer part doesn't seem to be working--at least for me. lol

I'm not eating anything right now. lol Guess you could call it fasting.

DYLAN FEDERICO Meteorologist GCWX Supporter Posts: 17,513	January 27 - 29, 2014 Winter Storm Discussion Jan 25, 2014 9:12:20 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by DYLAN FEDERICO on Jan 25, 2014 9:12:20 GMT -6 The 12z NAM shows 18 hours of steady wintry mix for SE LA.
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SKYSUMMIT
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January 27 - 29, 2014 Winter Storm Discussion Jan 25, 2014 9:13:43 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jan 25, 2014 9:13:43 GMT -6

It's hard to believe we're actually discussing the remote possibility of another winter storm along the gulf coast. I'm still in awe looking out the window this morning seeing all the ice and thinking to myself, "that was just an advisory, the real deal may be in a few days".

Seriously though, today is Saturday, we're talking about precipitation starting as early as Monday...whether that be rain or anything else, that's getting into the short range. All mentioning of anything frozen has also been taken out of my forecast. One thing I do not understand is most models are keeping the moisture along the immediate gulf, but Jackson has snow in their forecast starting on Monday night. I haven't seen many models put a blanket of precipitation across central Mississippi except for the NAM.

Just as I had a good feeling about yesterday's "storm", I have an even better feeling about this next one.

Last Edit: Jan 25, 2014 9:14:06 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT

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DYLAN FEDERICO Meteorologist GCWX Supporter Posts: 17,513	January 27 - 29, 2014 Winter Storm Discussion Jan 25, 2014 9:15:15 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT likes this Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by DYLAN FEDERICO on Jan 25, 2014 9:15:15 GMT -6 12z NAM snowfall totals:
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flora... Covington, near CHS
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January 27 - 29, 2014 Winter Storm Discussion Jan 25, 2014 9:19:03 GMT -6

Post by flora... Covington, near CHS on Jan 25, 2014 9:19:03 GMT -6

Goodness, this is becoming exciting and scary at the same time with each updated model.. While I would love 5 inches of snow, the thought of a thicker ice cover than we just had makes me uncomfortable with the dangerous possibilities.

Covington... near CHS

Randy - Brandon, MS GCWX Supporter Posts: 3,162	January 27 - 29, 2014 Winter Storm Discussion Jan 25, 2014 9:20:04 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Randy - Brandon, MS on Jan 25, 2014 9:20:04 GMT -6 The soundings aren't really matching up with the snow depth maps. The freezing column looks only a couple of thousand feet deep. Looks waaaay more icy than snowy to me at this point.

Randy - Brandon, MS
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January 27 - 29, 2014 Winter Storm Discussion Jan 25, 2014 9:24:22 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT and DYLAN FEDERICO like this

Post by Randy - Brandon, MS on Jan 25, 2014 9:24:22 GMT -6

Jan 25, 2014 9:13:43 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT said:

One thing I do not understand is most models are keeping the moisture along the immediate gulf, but Jackson has snow in their forecast starting on Monday night. I haven't seen many models put a blanket of precipitation across central Mississippi except for the NAM.

Our office has been watching the little piece of energy coming out of the northwest for a couple of days now. That snow has been in the forecast since Thursday. Our office is banking on that piece of energy combining with the Gulf disturbance to enhance precipitation over our area. The SREF emsembles, NAM, CMC to some extent and some GFS ensembles are hinting at it. That said, the freezing layer over this area looks a little shallow in the NAM soundings, too.

DYLAN FEDERICO
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January 27 - 29, 2014 Winter Storm Discussion Jan 25, 2014 9:25:57 GMT -6

Post by DYLAN FEDERICO on Jan 25, 2014 9:25:57 GMT -6

Jan 25, 2014 9:20:04 GMT -6 Randy - Brandon, MS said:

The soundings aren't really matching up with the snow depth maps. The freezing column looks only a couple of thousand feet deep. Looks waaaay more icy than snowy to me at this point.

While I agree, the warm layer looks twice as small on this run and with wetbulbing could be why the model shows so much more snow on this run. But the way I look at it is regardless things are looking really NASTY.

I'd like to hear ndg opinion on the NAM skew T's since he's a lot more experienced with them than I am.

Last Edit: Jan 25, 2014 9:36:38 GMT -6 by DYLAN FEDERICO

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trethe GCWX Supporter Posts: 633	January 27 - 29, 2014 Winter Storm Discussion Jan 25, 2014 9:31:53 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by trethe on Jan 25, 2014 9:31:53 GMT -6 12Z GFS has begun to roll out...
	Last Edit: Jan 25, 2014 9:33:23 GMT -6 by trethe

SKYSUMMIT
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January 27 - 29, 2014 Winter Storm Discussion Jan 25, 2014 9:32:47 GMT -6 DYLAN FEDERICO likes this

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jan 25, 2014 9:32:47 GMT -6

While I know this storm is a completely different entity than the last, and models will handle each situation differently, the NAM is pretty scary in the aspect that it did not show anything for this last storm.

Dylan, I'd like to hear his thoughts as well. If you go back to your post and put an ampersand in front of NDG, it'll tag him, and he'll be notified to read that one post.

Sort of like this... DYLAN FEDERICO read this. You just have to know their actual username, not the display name (like yours is different). To find that, just hover your mouse over the user's display name in the mini profile on left.

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stormydds: Thanks for your response. I felt that is the case. that's too bad. Has there been any peer reviewed papers on the LRC hypothesis? Nov 4, 2022 14:01:51 GMT -6

Zack Fradella: Not sure, the LRC is something that takes a lot of work to follow and keep up with. It's not as easy as looking at the parameters and making a forecast. This deters many from even giving it a chance. Also, there is some doubt from the weather world. Nov 4, 2022 3:38:49 GMT -6

stormydds: Zack, a friend had a meeting in Lafayette which Rob Perillo spoke.He asked him why the LRC is not used to forecast hurricanes by NOAA.His answer was that Lezak won't share the info.I saw the podcast you and David made with Gary.He seemed open.What gives? Nov 3, 2022 14:39:19 GMT -6

January 27 - 29, 2014 Winter Storm Discussion

Post by sjbpgal-St. John Parish on Jan 25, 2014 8:48:10 GMT -6

Post by Randy - Brandon, MS on Jan 25, 2014 8:52:08 GMT -6

Post by sjbpgal-St. John Parish on Jan 25, 2014 8:52:58 GMT -6

Post by cajungal on Jan 25, 2014 8:55:55 GMT -6

Post by coffeecups on Jan 25, 2014 9:00:07 GMT -6

Post by sjbpgal-St. John Parish on Jan 25, 2014 9:03:11 GMT -6

Post by DYLAN FEDERICO on Jan 25, 2014 9:12:20 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jan 25, 2014 9:13:43 GMT -6

Post by DYLAN FEDERICO on Jan 25, 2014 9:15:15 GMT -6

Post by flora... Covington, near CHS on Jan 25, 2014 9:19:03 GMT -6

Post by Randy - Brandon, MS on Jan 25, 2014 9:20:04 GMT -6

Post by Randy - Brandon, MS on Jan 25, 2014 9:24:22 GMT -6

Post by DYLAN FEDERICO on Jan 25, 2014 9:25:57 GMT -6

Post by trethe on Jan 25, 2014 9:31:53 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Jan 25, 2014 9:32:47 GMT -6

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