Multi Day SVR WX - Discussion from the Plains to Dixie Alley

SKYSUMMIT
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Multi Day SVR WX - Discussion from the Plains to Dixie Alley Apr 22, 2014 14:40:55 GMT -6 99lsfm2 likes this

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Apr 22, 2014 14:40:55 GMT -6

We're going to keep this discussion in one thread even though many of the days are outside our normal discussion area.

As many have already said, this is looking like a multiple day severe weather event which will begin unfolding in Oklahoma and Texas this weekend, and then moving east through Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama through early next week.

All *new* model discussions and graphics should be placed in this thread going forward.

REALTOR - Team Geaux Realty, LLC (Let me be your Realtor!)
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NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08
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SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 64,778 Location: Hammond, LA Staff Member	Multi Day SVR WX - Discussion from the Plains to Dixie Alley Apr 22, 2014 14:48:03 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Apr 22, 2014 14:48:03 GMT -6 I just quickly went through all affected WFO's and Jackson looks to be the first with a graphic representing the upcoming threat.
	REALTOR - Team Geaux Realty, LLC (Let me be your Realtor!) Search homes on my website --> www.scottguidry.com/ NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

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Multi Day SVR WX - Discussion from the Plains to Dixie Alley Apr 22, 2014 14:53:07 GMT -6 via mobile

Post by Deleted on Apr 22, 2014 14:53:07 GMT -6

When the SPC mentions in a 6 to 7 day outlook about a large scale tornado threat with some possibly strong, it's serious. What worries me is how most of the severe events this year so far have busted. This may have people complacent.

99lsfm2 GCWX Supporter Board Member Posts: 6,799	Multi Day SVR WX - Discussion from the Plains to Dixie Alley Apr 22, 2014 14:55:04 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by 99lsfm2 on Apr 22, 2014 14:55:04 GMT -6
	GCWX Board Member NWS Trained Spotter - MOB

Briella - Houma Category 5 Posts: 8,421	Multi Day SVR WX - Discussion from the Plains to Dixie Alley Apr 22, 2014 15:19:11 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Briella - Houma on Apr 22, 2014 15:19:11 GMT -6 who will prevail?
	Briella Helicity - The Weather Superstore www.helicity.co

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Multi Day SVR WX - Discussion from the Plains to Dixie Alley Apr 22, 2014 16:38:22 GMT -6 Briella - Houma likes this

Post by Deleted on Apr 22, 2014 16:38:22 GMT -6

Here's some analogs for this upcoming event:

- April 26, 1991

- May 3-4, 1999
(Moore, OK F-5 tornado)
- March 12, 2006

- May 24, 2011
(Joplin, MO EF-5 tornado)
- April 14, 2012

Wow...995 mb surface low for Tuesday April 29th in Southern Illinois which puts most of the SE US in a warm sector.

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Multi Day SVR WX - Discussion from the Plains to Dixie Alley Apr 22, 2014 16:56:47 GMT -6

Post by Deleted on Apr 22, 2014 16:56:47 GMT -6

12z Euro

500 mb winds (Monday)

Incredible 500 mb winds (Tuesday):

850 mb (low level winds for Monday)

200 mb (upper level winds Tuesday):

Basically, there is going to be ample shear for this system. To add insult to injury, Birmingham NWS weather radio transmitter is down until May.

Briella - Houma
Category 5

Posts: 8,421

Multi Day SVR WX - Discussion from the Plains to Dixie Alley Apr 22, 2014 16:57:45 GMT -6

Post by Briella - Houma on Apr 22, 2014 16:57:45 GMT -6

Apr 22, 2014 16:38:22 GMT -6 @koryp said:

Here's some analogs for this upcoming event:

- April 26, 1991

- May 3-4, 1999
(Moore, OK F-5 tornado)
- March 12, 2006

- May 24, 2011
(Joplin, MO EF-5 tornado)
- April 14, 2012

Analogs for which day exactly?

Briella
Helicity - The Weather Superstore www.helicity.co

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Multi Day SVR WX - Discussion from the Plains to Dixie Alley Apr 22, 2014 17:05:54 GMT -6

Post by Deleted on Apr 22, 2014 17:05:54 GMT -6

Apr 22, 2014 16:57:45 GMT -6 Briella - Houma said:

Apr 22, 2014 16:38:22 GMT -6 @koryp said:

Here's some analogs for this upcoming event:

- April 26, 1991

- May 3-4, 1999
(Moore, OK F-5 tornado)
- March 12, 2006

- May 24, 2011
(Joplin, MO EF-5 tornado)
- April 14, 2012

Analogs for which day exactly?

Sorry I didn't specify...that's for the weekend April 26th-27th.

Briella - Houma
Category 5

Posts: 8,421

Multi Day SVR WX - Discussion from the Plains to Dixie Alley Apr 22, 2014 17:06:59 GMT -6

Post by Briella - Houma on Apr 22, 2014 17:06:59 GMT -6

Awesome, i found it for anyone who wants to look.. there are a lot of big days there..

www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=SP&model=GFS212&fhr=F120&case=2014042200_SP_120
www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=SP&model=GFS212&fhr=F144&case=2014042200_SP_144

Briella
Helicity - The Weather Superstore www.helicity.co

Deleted Posts: 0	Multi Day SVR WX - Discussion from the Plains to Dixie Alley Apr 22, 2014 17:07:12 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Deleted on Apr 22, 2014 17:07:12 GMT -6 These maps are lifted from another forum. These maps are all for Monday afternoon. About as unstable as you can get.
	Last Edit: Apr 22, 2014 17:08:53 GMT -6 by Deleted

Briella - Houma Category 5 Posts: 8,421	Multi Day SVR WX - Discussion from the Plains to Dixie Alley Apr 22, 2014 17:12:55 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Briella - Houma on Apr 22, 2014 17:12:55 GMT -6 eta: James Spann agrees, I'm on board.
	Last Edit: Apr 22, 2014 17:48:20 GMT -6 by Briella - Houma Briella Helicity - The Weather Superstore www.helicity.co

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Multi Day SVR WX - Discussion from the Plains to Dixie Alley Apr 22, 2014 17:52:17 GMT -6 via mobile Briella - Houma likes this

Post by Deleted on Apr 22, 2014 17:52:17 GMT -6

Apr 22, 2014 17:12:55 GMT -6 Briella - Houma said:

eta: James Spann agrees, I'm on board.

James Spann is like the Nash Roberts of Alabama. When he speaks...everyone listens.

Briella - Houma Category 5 Posts: 8,421	Multi Day SVR WX - Discussion from the Plains to Dixie Alley Apr 22, 2014 18:13:03 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Briella - Houma on Apr 22, 2014 18:13:03 GMT -6 I don't blame them, his weatherbrains podcast is awesome too.
	Briella Helicity - The Weather Superstore www.helicity.co

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 64,778 Location: Hammond, LA Staff Member	Multi Day SVR WX - Discussion from the Plains to Dixie Alley Apr 22, 2014 18:40:53 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Apr 22, 2014 18:40:53 GMT -6 This has at least Moderate Risk written all over it. Get your red crayons out kids.
	REALTOR - Team Geaux Realty, LLC (Let me be your Realtor!) Search homes on my website --> www.scottguidry.com/ NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23

stormydds: Thanks for your response. I felt that is the case. that's too bad. Has there been any peer reviewed papers on the LRC hypothesis? Nov 4, 2022 14:01:51 GMT -6

Zack Fradella: Not sure, the LRC is something that takes a lot of work to follow and keep up with. It's not as easy as looking at the parameters and making a forecast. This deters many from even giving it a chance. Also, there is some doubt from the weather world. Nov 4, 2022 3:38:49 GMT -6

stormydds: Zack, a friend had a meeting in Lafayette which Rob Perillo spoke.He asked him why the LRC is not used to forecast hurricanes by NOAA.His answer was that Lezak won't share the info.I saw the podcast you and David made with Gary.He seemed open.What gives? Nov 3, 2022 14:39:19 GMT -6

Multi Day SVR WX - Discussion from the Plains to Dixie Alley

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Apr 22, 2014 14:40:55 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Apr 22, 2014 14:48:03 GMT -6

Post by Deleted on Apr 22, 2014 14:53:07 GMT -6

Post by 99lsfm2 on Apr 22, 2014 14:55:04 GMT -6

Post by Briella - Houma on Apr 22, 2014 15:19:11 GMT -6

Post by Deleted on Apr 22, 2014 16:38:22 GMT -6

Post by Deleted on Apr 22, 2014 16:56:47 GMT -6

Post by Briella - Houma on Apr 22, 2014 16:57:45 GMT -6

Post by Deleted on Apr 22, 2014 17:05:54 GMT -6

Post by Briella - Houma on Apr 22, 2014 17:06:59 GMT -6

Post by Deleted on Apr 22, 2014 17:07:12 GMT -6

Post by Briella - Houma on Apr 22, 2014 17:12:55 GMT -6

Post by Deleted on Apr 22, 2014 17:52:17 GMT -6

Post by Briella - Houma on Apr 22, 2014 18:13:03 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Apr 22, 2014 18:40:53 GMT -6

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