THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ALTUS...ALVA...ANADARKO... ARCHER CITY...ARNETT...BUFFALO...CHEROKEE...CHEYENNE... CHILLICOTHE...CLINTON...CORDELL...CROWELL...ELK CITY...FAIRVIEW... FREDERICK...HENRIETTA...HOBART...HOLLIS...KNOX CITY...LAWTON... MANGUM...MUNDAY...QUANAH...SAYRE...SEYMOUR...TALOGA...VERNON... WALTERS...WATONGA...WEATHERFORD...WICHITA FALLS AND WOODWARD.
Post by Briella - Houma on Apr 23, 2014 15:29:57 GMT -6
New Orleans AFD..
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 347 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014
.SHORT TERM... BENIGN PERIOD OF WEATHER WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIALS ARE FINALLY ESTABLISHING LAKE AND SEA BREEZE REGIME FOR SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUD COVER TAHT WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET TODAY. A REPEAT SCENARIO FOR THURSDAY AFTER SOME PATCHY LIGHT RADIATIONAL FOG BURNS OFF BY MID-MORNING.
.LONG TERM... STEADY STATE ONSHORE FLOW MAY BRIEFLY BECOME DISRUPTED ON FRIDAY AS THE LOWER END OF A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. WHILE RAIN CHANCES DO NOT LOOK GREAT THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME CONVERGENT BOUNDARY GENERATED SHOWERS DUE TO INTERATIONS WITH LAKE AND SEA BREEZES. TEMPERATURES OUGHT TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN WEATHER FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER LARGE AND STRONG CYCLONE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES WITH DEEP FETCHED MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THES SCENARIO SHOULD FEATURE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH BUT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF THAT EXTENDS DOWN TO THE GULF COAST AREAS...THOUGH CONDITIONS MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SQUALL LINE AND DISCRETE BOWING SEGMENTS MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. THE BULK OF THE WEATHER IS INDICATED TO DEPART TUESDAY MORNING BUT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH THE COLDEST ADVECTION DOES NOT FULLY SWING THROUGH UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE AN UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IF ECMWF VERIFIES...NOT QUITE AS COLD BUT STILL COLD IF THE GFS IS CORRECT. IT COULD POTENTIALLY BE A RECORD FOR LOWEST MAX DAILY TEMPERATURE IF ALL PANS OUT AND TEMPS ONLY REACH MID 60S. RECORD LOWS DURING THAT PERIOD ARE AROUND 40 AT KBTR AND UPPER 40S IN NEW ORLEANS AREA.
Post by Briella - Houma on Apr 23, 2014 16:14:10 GMT -6
New Orleans HWO
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 512 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014
GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>037- 039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-241400- LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-MISSISSIPPI SOUND- LAKE BORGNE-CHANDELEUR SOUND-BRETON SOUND- COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA- WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE- EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES- ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON- ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE- LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON- LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA- SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER- HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON- 512 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.
.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. THE FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE.
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER PEARL RIVER AND THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT RED RIVER LANDING. REFER TO THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR MORE DETAILS.
OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
RIVER FLOODING WILL BE ONGOING ON THE PEARL RIVER AND PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURING THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. REFER TO THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR MORE DETAILS.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA STARTING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS POTENTIAL WEATHER EVENT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...AND THE TIMING AND IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED IN LATER FORECASTS.
Well the GFS just jumped onto the big time severe event for Monday. It's showing surface dew points near or over 70 degrees and a low level jet roaring out of the SSW. Mississippi looks like it's in the bullseye right now, but that threat will be spreading eastward into Monday evening and overnight hours.
I find this system resembles the April 14-16, 2011 event. Beginning across the Southern Plains and progressing eastward in time.
Well the GFS just jumped onto the big time severe event for Monday. It's showing surface dew points near or over 70 degrees and a low level jet roaring out of the SSW. Mississippi looks like it's in the bullseye right now, but that threat will be spreading eastward into Monday evening and overnight hours.
I find this system resembles the April 14-16, 2011 event. Beginning across the Southern Plains and progressing eastward in time.