Multi Day SVR WX - Discussion from the Plains to Dixie Alley

I'm busy selling 1/2" plexi glass sheets with handles on Ebay

How big of a risk for the Gulf Coast? Or a bit too early to call?

Here we go



DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

VALID 261200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...
..SIGNIFICANT MULTI-DAY SEVERE EVENT EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND ACROSS THE MS
VALLEY AND MID SOUTH ON MONDAY...STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE HEAVILY WEIGHTED TOWARD THE
ECMWF DUE TO RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY REGARDING THE 500MB EVOLUTION OF
WRN U.S. TROUGH. CONCERNS REGARDING POLAR FRONT UNDERCUTTING STRONG
SWLY FLOW ALOFT HAVE ABATED THIS MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE DEEPENS
LEE CYCLONE OVER SERN CO SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH SUBSEQUENT MOVEMENT
INTO WRN KS ON SUNDAY. INTENSE 500MB SPEED MAX APPROACHING 90KT
SHOULD ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ALONG THE AZ/MEXICAN BORDER THEN
EJECT INTO SWRN KS EARLY SUNDAY. AS A RESULT SFC LOW IS NOT
EXPECTED TO ADVANCE APPRECIABLY EWD UNTIL LATER MONDAY AS SECONDARY
MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX DEVELOPS FROM NORTH TX INTO THE LOWER OH RIVER
VALLEY.

MODERATE TO EXTREME INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP EAST OF THE DRYLINE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG ERN PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES. STRONGLY
DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ENCOURAGE VIGOROUS SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT
FROM PORTIONS OF WCNTRL TX...NWD INTO KS. VERY LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW FAR EAST THE DRYLINE WILL MIX SUNDAY AS
LOWEST PRESSURES WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF WRN
KS. MODELS MIX DRYLINE EAST OF I-35 CORRIDOR ACROSS OK BY 18Z
SUNDAY BUT THE DAY5 FORECAST WILL ACCOUNT FOR DRYLINE NOT MIXING
ACROSS THE PLAINS AS FAST AS MODELS CURRENTLY DEPICT. AS A
RESULT...SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE
MOIST/BUOYANT WARM SECTOR AND ANOTHER DIURNALLY-INITIATED ROUND OF
POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS COULD EVOLVE.

LATER MONDAY IT APPEARS THE SFC FRONT/DRYLINE SHOULD ADVANCE INTO
THE MS VALLEY. SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS SHOULD EVOLVE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT FROM LA...NWD INTO MO AND POSSIBLY AS FAR EAST AS MIDDLE
TN. TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH WARM-SECTOR
CONVECTION.

As if the Euro couldn't get any more threatening after yesterday's 12z run...the 00z run is even more volatile.  Winds at all the levels are stronger, CAPE is higher, and moisture return is no problem.  I'm not too concerned for my area just yet, but it'll definitely be interesting come the weekend to see how everyone starts reacting.  Seems like it doesn't take much to spin up tornadoes in Dixie Alley, so when I see numbers like this, my stomach drops.

Wow! Monday afternoon low level winds:


Monday afternoon 500 mb winds:


And with a tilt like such, I don't see a squall line with this system.  This favors supercells.

For southeast Louisiana:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
836 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...
REMINDER THAT WEDNESDAY IS WEEKLY RADIO TEST DAY AROUND 11 AM THIS
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...
THE NEXT HWO ISSUANCE WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BASED ON
LATEST MODEL TRENDS AND SPC 4-7 DAY OUTLOOK. NO OTHER CHANGES AT
THIS TIME.

JACKSON:

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO 1
INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A WINNSBORO...TO YAZOO
CITY...TO EUPORA LINE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING MAINLY FOR THE ARKLAMISS DELTA REGION.

IN ADDITION...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS POTENTIAL WEATHER EVENT IS STILL SEVERAL
DAYS AWAY...AND THE TIMING AND IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED IN
LATER FORECASTS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

GFS has CAPE values over 3,000 J/KG in parts of South Louisiana with widespread 2,000 J/KG across most of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Western Alabama. Best shear does appear over parts of Mississippi and Alabama.  GFS isn't nearly as aggressive with the shear and instability like the Euro, which should be running in about a hour.  

CAPE for Monday evening:


Sufficient 500 mb winds Monday evening (40-50 kts):


Best low level winds are over Alabama Monday evening (30 kts):