Multi Day SVR WX - Discussion from the Plains to Dixie Alley

lol, I wonder where its at..

Good news from Birmingham NWS...NOAA weather radio transmitter will be operation for Monday's event. When the NWS cuts upgrades short, you know this event will be significant.

Oh my God...that has got to be the most negatively tilted trough I've seen.  Not to mention, the surface winds are nearly SSE.  Models keep trending worse...

Monday evening:

One of the top analogs for this Monday's event is one that produced the Yazoo City, Mississippi, tornado.  

CIPS Analogs

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0338 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

VALID 271200Z - 021200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...SIGNIFICANT MULTI-DAY SEVERE EVENT EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MS VALLEY SUNDAY...AND MS
VALLEY/CNTRL GULF STATES ON MONDAY...STRONG TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE...

BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
OF UPPER LOW AS IT PROGRESSES INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY...THEN INTO THE
MS VALLEY MONDAY. AFTER INITIAL SPEED MAX EJECTS INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS SUNDAY SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS WITHIN THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH OVER TX AND SPREADS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE
NCNTRL GULF STATES/TN VALLEY. ECMWF IS MORE SUPPRESSED WITH THIS
STRONGER FLOW THAN THE GFS BUT THE IDEA THAT STRONG FLOW SHOULD
OVERSPREAD A BUOYANT AIRMASS BOTH DAYS REMAINS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SURGE THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WITH BOTH AGREEING THAT SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY LAYER DRYING
WILL SPREAD EAST OF I-35 CORRIDOR FAIRLY EARLY SUNDAY. GIVEN THE
MID-LEVEL JET THAT EJECTS INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS EARLY THIS MAY
TRANSPIRE AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVOLVE FROM SERN
NEB...ACROSS ERN KS/OK INTO NERN TX BEFORE SPREADING INTO WRN
MO/AR/NWRN LA.

DEEP SFC CYCLONE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS
AND ARCING FRONTAL POSITION AT 12Z MONDAY SHOULD EXTEND ALONG/NEAR
THE KS/MO BORDER...SWD INTO SERN TX. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
REDEVELOP ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AS 80KT 500MB FLOW EJECTS ACROSS
THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO WRN TN DURING THE DAY. A FEW STRONG
TORNADOES MAY BE NOTED WITH SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF
DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

As in most outbreaks across Dixie Alley...the Gulf Coast usually has capping. Seems to aid in the better instability as you move inland.