OK, one more big screenshot ... then I'll quit for a while. The storm near the Mexican border is warned for BASEBALL sized hail. Let us play spot the updraft.
Good news from Birmingham NWS...NOAA weather radio transmitter will be operation for Monday's event. When the NWS cuts upgrades short, you know this event will be significant.
Good news from Birmingham NWS...NOAA weather radio transmitter will be operation for Monday's event. When the NWS cuts upgrades short, you know this event will be significant.
Thanks for posting, I saw a link to it on twitter but I overlooked it cause they've been "releasing info" all day lol.
edit: turns out they aren't sure.. they are hopeful it'll be fixed. lol.
"Based on some late afternoon updates, we are now hopeful that the Birmingham transmitter may be back on the air before the threat of severe weather next week. As you can imagine, pulling together any sort of repair on short notice is challenging in the best of circumstances. We are working closely with technicians and our regional and national management teams to do everything we can to return the transmitter to operations as soon as possible."
Last Edit: Apr 23, 2014 20:57:30 GMT -6 by CajunWX
Oh my God...that has got to be the most negatively tilted trough I've seen. Not to mention, the surface winds are nearly SSE. Models keep trending worse...
Monday evening:
Last Edit: Apr 24, 2014 5:21:16 GMT -6 by Deleted
SKYSUMMIT President | Director of OperationsAdministrator
Oh my God...that has got to be the most negatively tilted trough I've seen. Not to mention, the surface winds are nearly SSE. Models keep trending worse...
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0338 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014
VALID 271200Z - 021200Z
...DISCUSSION... ...SIGNIFICANT MULTI-DAY SEVERE EVENT EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MS VALLEY SUNDAY...AND MS VALLEY/CNTRL GULF STATES ON MONDAY...STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...
BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF UPPER LOW AS IT PROGRESSES INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY...THEN INTO THE MS VALLEY MONDAY. AFTER INITIAL SPEED MAX EJECTS INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS SUNDAY SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS WITHIN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER TX AND SPREADS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE NCNTRL GULF STATES/TN VALLEY. ECMWF IS MORE SUPPRESSED WITH THIS STRONGER FLOW THAN THE GFS BUT THE IDEA THAT STRONG FLOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD A BUOYANT AIRMASS BOTH DAYS REMAINS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SURGE THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH BOTH AGREEING THAT SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY LAYER DRYING WILL SPREAD EAST OF I-35 CORRIDOR FAIRLY EARLY SUNDAY. GIVEN THE MID-LEVEL JET THAT EJECTS INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS EARLY THIS MAY TRANSPIRE AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVOLVE FROM SERN NEB...ACROSS ERN KS/OK INTO NERN TX BEFORE SPREADING INTO WRN MO/AR/NWRN LA.
DEEP SFC CYCLONE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND ARCING FRONTAL POSITION AT 12Z MONDAY SHOULD EXTEND ALONG/NEAR THE KS/MO BORDER...SWD INTO SERN TX. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AS 80KT 500MB FLOW EJECTS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO WRN TN DURING THE DAY. A FEW STRONG TORNADOES MAY BE NOTED WITH SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
Last Edit: Apr 25, 2014 11:12:04 GMT -6 by CajunWX
Post by Zack Fradella on Apr 24, 2014 10:42:29 GMT -6
The Gulf Coast does look to have major capping issues for Sunday/Monday. An intense MCS will likely be just to our north and you never know how far those can back-build.
A secondary vort max will swing through the base of the trough on Tuesday which could end up being the best chance at seeing a few severe storms on the Gulf Coast.
Dixie Alley, specifically Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee will get raked according to the Euro. Monday a 55kt low level jet which is about as bad as it gets along with dew points near 70 degrees. Tuesday the atmosphere reloads with a second shortwave swinging in which would fire off even more severe storms across Dixie Alley.
Last Edit: Apr 24, 2014 12:56:56 GMT -6 by Deleted
SKYSUMMIT President | Director of OperationsAdministrator
.LONG TERM... SPRING STORM DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS STATES SUNDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMING DEEP FETCHED ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM. SUNDAY SHOULD BE FINE EXCEPT FOR STEADILY INCREASING HUMIDITY AND WIND LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT NOW WITH SHOWING THE INITIAL PUNCH OF CONVECTION WEAKENING UPON APPROACH MONDAY INTO THE DEEP SOUTH WITH THE BULK OF THE INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS PASSING TO THE NORTH FOR WHAT SHOULD BE AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT UNDERWAY. THE THREAT APPEARS TO BE LESS IN THE FORECAST AREA BUT THE BETTER HELICITIES MAY MAKE THE EARLIER PRE-FRONTAL PASSAGE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.THE UPPER SYSTEM STALLS OVER THE UPPER PLAINS AND MIDWEST AND SENDS A COLD POOL SOUTHWARD INTO THE HEART OF THE COUNTRY AND THE GULF STATES MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THIS MAY ACTUALLY BE MORE OF SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE AREA. THE GFS PASSES THE MAJORITY OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY WHEREBY THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF NOW HOLDS FRONTAL PRECIPITATION INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF ACTUALLY STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE AREA FOR A LONG DURATION THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME THE FORECAST WILL LEAN TO THE MORE OPTIMISTIC GFS WITH CONCESSION THAT THE ECMWF MAY BE ON TO SOMETHING.
Last Edit: Apr 24, 2014 14:37:24 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT
