Marie Discussion Thread (E-Pac)

Up to 90kts.

HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014
800 PM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014

Marie's cloud pattern has become better organized since the last
advisory. Pulsating convection within the cyclone's large central
dense overcast has become more symmetric, and late-day visible
satellite imagery showed an intermittent proto-eye. Several
well-defined bands also wrap well around the circulation of Marie.
A 2106 UTC GMI pass revealed a significant increase in the
organization of hurricane's inner core since this morning, with a
closed low-level ring of convection present then. An AMSU intensity
estimate of 86 kt preceded a T5.0/90 kt Dvorak intensity estimate
from TAFB at 0000 UTC. The initial intensity is raised to 90 kt, the
upper end of these estimates, based on some further increase in
organization of the cyclone's satellite presentation since that
time.

Marie has been traveling on a west-northwestward course or 295/12,
with the current motion to the right of that 24 hours ago. Marie
should be steered around the southwestern periphery of an expansive
mid-level ridge stretching from the eastern United States into the
eastern Pacific during the next 24 hours or so. After that, the
hurricane will reach the western edge of this ridge and temporary
slow down before the direction of motion becomes northwesterly
through the remainder of the forecast period. The track guidance
remains in very good agreement this cycle, and the forecast track
was shifted only slightly to the right of the previous one by virtue
of Marie's nearly northwesterly initial motion.

While large-scale conditions generally remain quite conducive
for additional intensification, there is some disagreement with
regard to how much northeasterly vertical shear is currently
affecting Marie. The UW-CIMSS analyses indicate no more than 5-10 kt
of northeasterly shear while SHIPS model output has consistently
indicated around 15 kt. Regardless, the inner core structure
of the hurricane and the favorable environmental conditions should
allow for Marie's strengthening to major hurricane status, unless
its intensification is interrupted by an eyewall replacement.
Interestingly, the bulk of the intensity guidance shows little
additional intensification except the SHIPS output, possibly in
response to the less-than-optimal shear. Even though the shear is
forecast to diminish after 72 hours, sea surface temperatures along
Marie's path should rapidly decrease and cause a rapid spin-down of
the cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast remains above all of the
intensity guidance through day 3 except the SHIPS model output but
approaches the multi-model consensus IVCN after that time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 15.7N 108.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 16.2N 110.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 16.8N 112.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 17.7N 113.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 18.8N 115.6W 115 KT 135 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 21.4N 119.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 28/0000Z 24.0N 124.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 29/0000Z 26.7N 129.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain