Marie Discussion Thread (E-Pac)

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Marie Discussion Thread (E-Pac) Aug 27, 2014 3:25:31 GMT -6

Post by Deleted on Aug 27, 2014 3:25:31 GMT -6

HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014
200 AM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

Marie continues to slowly weaken. Although deep convection in the
eyewall has changed little during the past few hours, cloud tops
have warmed outside of the inner core region. In addition, a dry
slot is now evident to the north of the center. The initial
intensity is lowered a little to 75 kt, using a blend of the latest
Dvorak classifications. The hurricane is currently over 25 C water
and it will be moving over even cooler water during the next few
days. These unfavorable oceanic conditions combined with a more
stable air mass should cause the weakening trend to continue.
Marie is expected to lose all of its deep convection in 36 to 48
hours when it is forecast to be over sea surface temperatures around
22 C.

Satellite fixes suggest that Marie has moved a little to the left
of the previous forecast track. The initial motion estimate is
285/11. A turn to the northwest and then north-northwest is
expected during the next few days while the weakening system moves
around a strong mid-level high builds off the coast of the
northern Baja California. Beyond a few days, the shallow system is
expected to slow down and turn westward or southwestward in the
low-level flow. The NHC track forecast has been nudged southward,
mainly to account for the initial motion and position.

Very large southerly swells continue to affect much of the Baja
California peninsula and the southern California coast. These
swells are expected to persist for another day or so and could
produce life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor
coastal flooding around the time of high tide.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 21.7N 122.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 22.5N 124.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 23.8N 127.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 25.5N 129.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 27.0N 130.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 30/0600Z 29.5N 132.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 31/0600Z 29.8N 134.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/0600Z 29.2N 135.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 67,639 Location: Ponchatoula, LA Staff Member	Marie Discussion Thread (E-Pac) Aug 27, 2014 7:23:21 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 27, 2014 7:23:21 GMT -6 Has a neat whirlpool look to it this morning.
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Marie Discussion Thread (E-Pac) Aug 27, 2014 14:36:31 GMT -6

Post by Deleted on Aug 27, 2014 14:36:31 GMT -6

Downgraded to Tropical Storm.

TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014
200 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

The satellite presentation of Marie continues to degrade with
convection now confined to the southeastern portion of the
circulation. The center has also become partially exposed.
Subjective and objective Dvorak T- and CI- numbers continue to
decrease, and the initial wind speed is reduced to 55 kt. This is
also supported by a recent partial ASCAT pass that showed winds to
50 kt over the northern portion of the circulation. The cyclone is
expected to continue weakening while it moves over sea surface
temperatures of 22 to 23 degrees Celsius, and into a more stable
environment during the next couple of days. Marie should become a
post-tropical cyclone by late Thursday.

The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at about 13 kt. A
west-northwestward to northwestward motion is forecast to continue
during the next 2 to 3 days while the cyclone is steered around
the western side of a mid-level high off the coast of the northern
Baja California peninsula. After Marie becomes a shallow system, it
should turn westward or west-southwestward in low-level
northeasterly flow. The new NHC track is essentially an update of
the previous advisory.

Very large southerly swells continue to affect much of the west
coast of the Baja California peninsula and the coast of southern
California. These swells are expected to persist for another day or
so and are likely to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents, as well as minor coastal flooding around the time of high
tide.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 23.1N 125.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 24.1N 127.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 25.8N 129.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 27.6N 131.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 29/1800Z 29.0N 133.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 30/1800Z 30.0N 135.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 31/1800Z 30.0N 137.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/1800Z 29.5N 138.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

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Marie Discussion Thread (E-Pac) Aug 27, 2014 20:42:28 GMT -6

Post by Deleted on Aug 27, 2014 20:42:28 GMT -6

TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014
800 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

The convective pattern has not changed since the last advisory.
However, the center of Marie is now over SSTs less than 24C, and
the circulation continues to gradually spin down. ASCAT data still
showed a sizable area of 50-kt winds several hours ago, so the
initial intensity is only lowered to 50 kt, which is on the higher
side of the satellite intensity estimates. Water temperatures
between 22-23C and a stable environment will cause the cyclone to
continue weakening, and Marie could become a convection-free
post-tropical cyclone in about 24 hours.

A strengthening mid-level high near the coast of California and
the Baja California peninsula has caused Marie to accelerate a bit,
with an initial motion of 300/14 kt. Marie is forecast to turn
northwestward around this high during the next 48 hours, but then
slow down considerably and turn westward and west-southwestward by
the end of the forecast period when it is steered by lower-level
flow. The updated NHC track forecast is a little bit farther north
than the previous one beyond day 3 during the remnant low phase,
but otherwise there are no significant changes.

Large southerly swells affecting much of the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula and the coast of southern California will
gradually subside through Friday. These swells could still produce
life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal
flooding around the time of high tide.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 23.8N 126.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 25.0N 128.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 26.7N 130.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 29/1200Z 28.4N 132.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 30/0000Z 29.6N 133.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 31/0000Z 30.5N 135.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/0000Z 30.5N 137.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/0000Z 30.0N 139.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg

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Marie Discussion Thread (E-Pac) Aug 28, 2014 3:37:14 GMT -6

Post by Deleted on Aug 28, 2014 3:37:14 GMT -6

TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014
200 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

Deep convection near Marie has significantly decreased in the past
few hours, with the low-level center becoming partially exposed on
the north side of the old central dense overcast. The initial
wind speed is reduced to 45 kt, on the higher side of the latest
satellite classifications. Since Marie is now over sub-23C waters,
it is no longer expected to produce organized deep convection and
should become post-tropical in about 12 hours. The large
circulation will take some time to spin down even without
convection, so the NHC intensity forecast shows only a gradual
decay, similar to the global models and the intensity consensus.

Marie is moving to the northwest or 305/14 kt. This general motion
is expected for the next day or so while the cyclone remains under
the influence of a mid-level high near the coast of southern
California. Marie or its remnants are forecast to slow down
considerably and turn westward and west-southwestward by the end of
the forecast period when it is steered by the lower-level flow.
Model guidance has nudged a bit to the west in the first 48 hours,
so the NHC track forecast is adjusted in that direction. Beyond day
3, the updated NHC track prediction, similar to the previous
forecast, is a little bit farther north.

Large southerly swells affecting much of the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula and the coast of southern California will
gradually subside through Friday. These swells could still produce
life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal
flooding around the time of high tide.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 24.4N 127.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 25.6N 129.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 29/0600Z 27.4N 132.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 29/1800Z 28.9N 133.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 30/0600Z 30.0N 135.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 31/0600Z 30.7N 137.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/0600Z 30.7N 139.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/0600Z 30.5N 140.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Blake

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Marie Discussion Thread (E-Pac) Aug 28, 2014 8:43:58 GMT -6

Post by Deleted on Aug 28, 2014 8:43:58 GMT -6

TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014
800 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

Marie has continued to produce a small area of convection south and
east of the center for the past few hours, but the tops have been
warming recently. The initial intensity is set at 40 kt, a bit above
the latest satellite classifications. Deep convection should
dissipate shortly now that Marie is moving over SSTs around 22C, and
Marie should become post-tropical by tonight. Gradual weakening is
expected during the forecast period, as it will take the large
circulation some time to spin down even without convection. The NHC
intensity forecast is similar to the previous one.

The initial motion estimate is 310/13. A general northwestward
motion is expected for the next couple of days while the cyclone
remains under the influence of a mid-level ridge centered near the
coast of southern California. Marie is forecast to slow down
considerably and turn westward and west-southwestward by the end of
the period as it is steered by the low-level flow. The NHC track
forecast is similar to the previous one after adjustment for the
initial position and motion.

Large southerly swells affecting much of the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula and the coast of southern California will
gradually subside through Friday. These swells could still produce
life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal
flooding around the time of high tide.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 25.4N 128.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 26.7N 130.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 28.2N 132.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 30/0000Z 29.4N 134.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 30/1200Z 30.3N 135.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 31/1200Z 30.8N 137.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/1200Z 30.7N 139.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/1200Z 30.0N 140.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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Marie Discussion Thread (E-Pac) Aug 28, 2014 14:46:46 GMT -6

Post by Deleted on Aug 28, 2014 14:46:46 GMT -6

TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014
200 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

Deep convection has been absent from Marie since around the time of
the previous advisory. Convection seems unlikely to return given
that the cyclone is moving over waters of around 22C. If convection
does not return, the cyclone will likely be declared post-tropical
tonight. The vortex still has an impressive presentation in visible
satellite imagery, with a tight swirl of low clouds and a
circulation that spans about 10 degrees of latitude. The initial
intensity of 35 kt is in agreement with the latest Dvorak
classification from TAFB. Only slow weakening is forecast during the
next few days given the scale of the circulation, and the remnant
low is expected to persist through the 5-day period.

The initial motion estimate is 310/14. A general northwestward
motion is expected through 48 hours while the cyclone remains under
the influence of a mid-level ridge centered near the coast of
southern California. By 72 hours Marie is forecast to slow down
considerably and turn westward and then west-southwestward by the
end of the period as it is steered by the low-level flow. The NHC
track forecast is similar to the previous one after adjusting for
the initial position and motion.

Large southerly swells affecting much of the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula and the coast of southern California will
gradually subside through Friday. These swells could still produce
life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal
flooding around the time of high tide.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 26.1N 130.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 27.4N 132.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 29/1800Z 28.8N 133.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 30/0600Z 29.8N 135.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 30/1800Z 30.6N 136.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 31/1800Z 30.9N 138.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/1800Z 30.6N 140.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 02/1800Z 30.0N 142.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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Marie Discussion Thread (E-Pac) Aug 28, 2014 20:55:53 GMT -6

Post by Deleted on Aug 28, 2014 20:55:53 GMT -6

TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014
800 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

Marie has only been producing patchy shallow convection for the past
12 hours or so, and the daily real-time global SST analysis shows
that the center is approaching water as cold as 21C. Since deep
convection should not redevelop in this environment, Marie is
expected to become post-tropical overnight--if it isn't already. In
the meantime, maximum winds are assumed to still be around 35 kt
based on an earlier ASCAT pass. The large circulation will take
some time to spin down, and a gradually weakening remnant low is
forecast through the 5-day period.

The initial motion remains 310/14 kt, with Marie moving along the
western edge of a low- to mid-level ridge located near the coast of
California and the Baja California peninsula. Marie will slow down
during the next day or so as it moves away from the ridge. Then,
the low-level flow will steer the remnant low west-northwestward
and eventually west-southwestward by the end of the period. The
NHC track is very similar to the previous one and close to the TVCE
model consensus.

Large southerly swells affecting much of the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula and the coast of southern California will
gradually subside through Friday. These swells could still produce
life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal
flooding around the time of high tide.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 27.0N 131.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 28.2N 133.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 30/0000Z 29.4N 134.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 30/1200Z 30.3N 135.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 31/0000Z 30.8N 136.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 01/0000Z 30.8N 138.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 02/0000Z 30.5N 140.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 03/0000Z 30.0N 142.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg

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Marie Discussion Thread (E-Pac) Aug 29, 2014 3:42:37 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT likes this

Post by Deleted on Aug 29, 2014 3:42:37 GMT -6

Bye Marie. You made a good show of beauty.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014
200 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

There has been no organized deep convection within the circulation
of the system for many hours now, so Marie has transitioned into a
post-tropical cyclone. The initial wind speed remains 35 kt in
agreement with 30-35 kt winds noted in a 0530 UTC ASCAT-B pass. The
large circulation will gradually spin down over cold waters of the
eastern North Pacific, and the NHC intensity forecast is in good
agreement with the global model guidance and the previous NHC
prediction.

Marie is moving northwestward at about 12 kt. The cyclone should
slow down during the next day or so as it moves away from a
mid-level ridge near California into an area of lighter steering
currents. The low-level ridge is forecast to build to the northwest
of Marie after that time, causing the post-tropical cyclone to move
west-northwestward and eventually west-southwestward by the end of
the period. The NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous
one and is close to the dynamical model consensus.

Large southerly swells affecting much of the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula and the coast of southern California will
gradually subside through tonight. These swells could still produce
life-threatening surf and rip currents.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center
on Marie. For future information on the post-tropical cyclone,
please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 27.6N 132.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 29/1800Z 28.7N 133.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 30/0600Z 29.7N 134.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 30/1800Z 30.4N 135.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 31/0600Z 30.7N 136.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 01/0600Z 30.7N 139.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 02/0600Z 30.3N 140.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 03/0600Z 29.5N 142.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Blake

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