Marie Discussion Thread (E-Pac)

Very impressive when the sun came up.

HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014
800 PM PDT MON AUG 25 2014

Satellite data indicate that Marie has gradually been weakening.
Inner-core deep convection has been slowly warming, with coldest
tops now south of center. Additionally, the eye has become less
defined and has cooled significantly since the last advisory. A
2210 UTC TRMM overpass shows that the hurricane has also been
maintaining a classic concentric eyewall structure - a double
eyewall within 60 n mi of the center, with the inner eyewall
possibly in the process of collapsing. A third, less-defined eyewall
was noted at around 110 n mi radius, separated by a prominent dry
slot. The initial intensity for this advisory is reduced to 100 kt,
based on the latest Dvorak CI numbers from SAB and the UW-CIMSS ADT.

Continued slow weakening is expected in the short term due to
gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures and the possibility of
the current eyewall replacement evolving further. Even though the
vertical shear is forecast to be light, Marie will be crossing the
26 deg C isotherm in 12-18 hours and should reach sub-24 deg C
waters by 48 hours. With the thermodynamic environment worsening so
quickly, near-rapid weakening is likely after about 24 hours until
the cyclone becomes post-tropical by day 3. The cyclone will then
continue to spin down over even cooler waters, but the remnant
circulation could linger beyond the end of the forecast period. The
intensity forecast has been lowered a bit relative to the previous
one due mostly to the greater rate of weakening observed since the
last advisory.

Marie is continuing on a steady northwestward course of 305/11.
Mid-level ridging extending west-southwestward from the eastern
United States in the subtropical eastern Pacific should continue to
steer Marie on a west-northwestward to northwestward path during
the next few days. After losing its deep convection by day 3 or so,
the cyclone's track should bend north-northwestward or even
northward and slow down. There continues to be little change with
regard to the track guidance and little in the way of modifications
was made to the previous track. The new NHC track is in the center
of guidance envelope and close to the multi-model consensus TVCE.

Although Marie is expected to remain well offshore, very large
swells will continue to affect southwestern Mexico through tonight
and much of the Pacific coast of the Baja California peninsula
during the next few days. Southerly swells will also reach the
coast of southern California by Tuesday, producing life-threatening
surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 19.2N 116.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 20.2N 118.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 21.3N 120.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 22.4N 123.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 23.5N 125.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 29/0000Z 26.5N 130.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 30/0000Z 29.4N 132.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 31/0000Z 30.8N 133.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain