Latest precip forecast from this evening. Like I mentioned on the FB post a while ago, this changes a little with each run, but still gives an idea of where the heaviest rainfall could occur.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2016
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
A stationary trough of low pressure continues to produce widespread cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and Apalachee Bay. Some increase in organization is possible during the next day or two before the system moves inland over the southeastern United States. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is expected over portions of the northern and central Florida peninsula, as well as much of the Florida panhandle. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT SUN AUG 7 2016
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
A weak area of low pressure located over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico just northwest of Cedar Key, Florida, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system has been drifting northeastward during the past 24 hours, and is now forecast to move inland later today before significant development can occur. Heavy rainfall is still expected over portions of the northern and central Florida peninsula, as well as much of the Florida panhandle, during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent
Great Sunday Morning to everyone!! Satellite imagery of the area of interest in the Northeast Gulf of Mexico certainly "appears" impressive this morning. I know that "appearances" can sometimes be deceiving, however, long-range radar out of the Tampa area looks impressive as well. If this area of low pressure were to somehow work its' way to the south and west, it would appear to have the potential to develop a little more than forecast at the present time. You guys are awesome!! Keep up the great work!!
Great Sunday Morning to everyone!! Satellite imagery of the area of interest in the Northeast Gulf of Mexico certainly "appears" impressive this morning. I know that "appearances" can sometimes be deceiving, however, long-range radar out of the Tampa area looks impressive as well. If this area of low pressure were to somehow work its' way to the south and west, it would appear to have the potential to develop a little more than forecast at the present time. You guys are awesome!! Keep up the great work!!
Yep, just about all of the models are now showing the center staying over land...anywhere from the Florida Panhandle, to south Alabama, to Southeast Louisiana. Still plenty of moisture this week.
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT SUN AUG 7 2016
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
A weak area of low pressure located inland over northeastern Florida is generating showers and thunderstorms, primarily over the Gulf of Mexico. This system is drifting northeastward to northward, and is expected to move farther inland today and Monday with little chance of tropical cyclone formation. Nonetheless, heavy rainfall that could result in flooding is forecast over portions of north-central and northern Florida, including parts of the Florida panhandle, during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low... near 0 percent
I'm interested to see what today's ECMWF shows in terms of rainfall. It continues to push the surface low offshore of Mobile and Pensacola from Tuesday to Friday.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT SUN AUG 7 2016
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
A weak area of low pressure located inland over the northern Florida peninsula continues to produce showers and thunderstorms, primarily over the Gulf of Mexico and the Florida panhandle. This system is expected to move slowly northward during the next couple of days, taking the low pressure system farther inland. Although tropical cyclone formation is not expected, heavy rainfall that could result in flooding is likely over portions of the northern Florida peninsula and the Florida panhandle during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low... near 0 percent
