The Historic Flood of 2016: 8/8 to 8/19

Meanwhile, the existing 850mb vorticity has gotten just a tad tighter over the past couple hours. GRE screenshot:

:windy: So really what y'all are saying is that it could go anywhere?

At least, this will cool the SST of NE Gulf of Mexico; hopefully, Central North GOM some, too...

00z GFS ensembles don't have anything

:weatherman:

NWS TALLAHASSEE:

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Monday]...

Confidence is high in a prolonged period of wet weather across the
region as an upper low meanders along the Gulf Coast through the
short term period and beyond. Operational guidance remains
consistent tonight in forecasting PWAT values of 2 to 2.5 inches
across the region by Sunday and Monday, which would challenge
daily records at the TAE sounding site. This, coupled with lobes
of energy rotating around the low will yield widespread shower and
thunderstorm activity. Given the tropical airmass in place, all
storms will be very efficient rainfall producers introducing the
threat for flooding across the area. The latest model guidance
continues to point at southeastern portions of the Big Bend region
as the area favored to see the highest rainfall accumulations,
with the heaviest rainfall currently on track to begin Sunday
night/Monday morning timeframe. The possibility of a flood watch
continues to increase tonight as a result and will be discussed
with subsequent shifts today.

As far as temperatures go, decided to undercut guidance by a few
degrees across the region. Forecast highs ran a few degrees above
reality yesterday due to increased cloud coverage and an early start
to showers. As a result, highs generally running in the mid to upper
80s near the coast and lower 90s further inland can be expected.


.LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

The forecast challenge will continue to be heavy rainfall into the
long term period, as the aforementioned low slowly meanders
westward through the week. Due to the slow movement of this
system, high rain chances will remain in the forecast through the
week, with extraordinary rainfall amounts forecast, especially in
the Big Bend region of the Florida Panhandle. Though tropical in
nature, this system continues to only garner a 20% chance of
becoming a tropical entity in the next 48 hours. Regardless of
whether this system progresses in this way or not, the main threat
from this system will be heavy rainfall and flooding across the
region. The latest WPC guidance generally continues to indicate 5
to 10" of rain across coastal portions of the Florida Panhandle
with 3 to 5" inland over the course of the next week, whereas the
operational GFS and ECMWF QPF solutions continue to contrast each
other significantly. It will be interesting to see which solution
trends toward the other as time passes, but for now will err
between the two regarding storm total QPF amounts. Overall, high
temperatures will remain below average through the week, generally
in the mid to upper 80s, as abundant cloud cover and rainfall will
diurnal trends.