Chances of it becoming our first major hurricane are increasing before landfall near Tampico.
The Bay of Campeche just has that magic!
Gulf continues major drought. Had weak short lived hermine and before that Ingrid in 2013 down in Mexico. Bay of Campeche is the only area a system can seem to organize into more than a weak short lived tropcal storm. The difference between 2004-2008 and since Ingrid is astonishing. Definitely think the gulf is first to be affected by entering into the 25 year quiet cycle.
Should be PTC 07 this afternoon rather than straight to a TD.
God I hate that.
I hate it too but it makes sense so that residents on its path can start on preparations before it is officially classified before meeting the criterias of TD or TS.
SKYSUMMIT
Administrator President | Director of Operations
Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone 7 is expected within the hour.
REALTOR - Team Geaux Realty, LLC (Let me be your Realtor!) Search homes on my website --> www.scottguidry.com/ NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23
SKYSUMMIT
Administrator President | Director of Operations
Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017 500 PM EDT Sun Aug 06 2017
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.6N 82.0W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM ENE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER ABOUT 460 MI...745 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from Chetumal northward and around the Yucatan Peninsula to Campeche.
The government of Belize has issued a Tropical Storm Watch from Belize City northward.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico from Chetumal to Campeche
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Belize City northward to the border of Mexico
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours.
Interests elsewhere around the Bay of Campeche should monitor the progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 82.0 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center will move across the Yucatan Peninsula late Monday and Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts, and an increase in strength is forecast during the next day or so.
Upper-level winds are expected to become more conducive for development, and the disturbance is likely to become a tropical cyclone overnight. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts of around 12 inches, are possible across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and Belize through Wednesday. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods.
WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are expected to begin in portions of the warning area by Monday afternoon or evening. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in portions of the watch area by Monday afternoon or evening.
NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
$$ Forecaster Pasch
Last Edit: Aug 6, 2017 14:37:26 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT
REALTOR - Team Geaux Realty, LLC (Let me be your Realtor!) Search homes on my website --> www.scottguidry.com/ NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23
SKYSUMMIT
Administrator President | Director of Operations
REALTOR - Team Geaux Realty, LLC (Let me be your Realtor!) Search homes on my website --> www.scottguidry.com/ NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23
Post by DYLAN FEDERICO on Aug 6, 2017 15:36:54 GMT -6
I'm surprised by how conservative the NHC was with the forecast for 07L in the Bay of Campeche. Conditions look prime for intensification and its not a shocker that the GFS/ECM turn this into a potent hurricane before its final landfall.
I agree. The 18z GFS continues to show very good upper level conditions in the southwest Gulf through the forecast period.
REALTOR - Team Geaux Realty, LLC (Let me be your Realtor!) Search homes on my website --> www.scottguidry.com/ NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23
SKYSUMMIT
Administrator President | Director of Operations
He's getting that look this evening. Cyclone in the making.
REALTOR - Team Geaux Realty, LLC (Let me be your Realtor!) Search homes on my website --> www.scottguidry.com/ NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23
Yes I noticed in the last couple of satellite frames you no longer see the gust fronts moving away from the storms. That is a definite sign that it is becoming better organized.
GCWX Board Member
SKYSUMMIT
Administrator President | Director of Operations
Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017 800 PM EDT Sun Aug 06 2017
...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVERNIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 82.7W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM NNE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
REALTOR - Team Geaux Realty, LLC (Let me be your Realtor!) Search homes on my website --> www.scottguidry.com/ NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23
SKYSUMMIT
Administrator President | Director of Operations
Other than land interaction, everything is looking good for 07L to steadily get its act together. He's developing decent outflow and is working with a nice moisture envelope. Just needs a tad more convergence at the surface.
REALTOR - Team Geaux Realty, LLC (Let me be your Realtor!) Search homes on my website --> www.scottguidry.com/ NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23
Shoutbox
frankp: Hey neighbor can u please send me the local Alabama weather forum that you follow, much appreciated… frank
Jan 21, 2023 13:57:45 GMT -6
frankp: Hey neighbor, can u send the the link of the Alabama weather forum you visit, much appreciated
Jan 21, 2023 13:55:49 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: I'm hoping we're shoveling snow for Christmas
Nov 16, 2022 14:58:12 GMT -6
stormydds: Thanks for your reply... as usual
Nov 5, 2022 11:37:29 GMT -6
Zack Fradella: Yea, Lezak had a paper peer reviewed and published a year or so ago.
Nov 5, 2022 9:03:24 GMT -6
stormydds: Thanks for your response. I felt that is the case. that's too bad. Has there been any peer reviewed papers on the LRC hypothesis?
Nov 4, 2022 14:01:51 GMT -6
Zack Fradella: Not sure, the LRC is something that takes a lot of work to follow and keep up with. It's not as easy as looking at the parameters and making a forecast. This deters many from even giving it a chance. Also, there is some doubt from the weather world.
Nov 4, 2022 3:38:49 GMT -6
stormydds: Zack, a friend had a meeting in Lafayette which Rob Perillo spoke.He asked him why the LRC is not used to forecast hurricanes by NOAA.His answer was that Lezak won't share the info.I saw the podcast you and David made with Gary.He seemed open.What gives?
Nov 3, 2022 14:39:19 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: Man I really hope that rain moves quickly on Saturday. I'm so pumped for 6 hours of awesome college football!
Nov 3, 2022 7:15:01 GMT -6
PinkFreud - Nola FQ: Been unblocked. Dylan says that the station took major damage, so no idea when they'll even be able to stream again, or be on the air. Hopefully, they will at least let their employees deal with their own property issues!
Oct 2, 2022 18:17:35 GMT -6
gullywasher: Seriously, must we deal with Bruce Katz at noon, 4, 5 AND 9. ?
Sept 30, 2022 20:03:25 GMT -6
PinkFreud - Nola FQ: According to another met on twitter, the kitten was rescued by a producer who's adopting it. Of course that hasn't stopped the angry mob, with torches and pitchforks, who are insisting that it's a lie.
Sept 29, 2022 17:48:05 GMT -6
nolachic: Pink - he's probably blocking people he doesn't personally know to keep his cell charged and to get his head straight, and I'm sure he is beyond exhausted.
Sept 29, 2022 9:23:35 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: I sent him a message yesterday as well, but he hasn't seen it.
Sept 29, 2022 5:46:06 GMT -6
PinkFreud - Nola FQ: Oh hell, I meant for that to be a message!
Sept 28, 2022 19:38:19 GMT -6
PinkFreud - Nola FQ: Dylan is taking a beating on Twitter. I just tried to send him a message of support, since we've been following each other for years, and HE BLOCKED ME!!!!!! Somebody who can get to him needs to do so, pronto!!! I'm very worried about him.
Sept 28, 2022 19:37:27 GMT -6
HarahanTim - Now in Covington!: Hmmm, I will say. that somewhere back there, we have stored the "Tums" icon, for those that give a prediction based on their "gut"!
Sept 24, 2022 11:38:12 GMT -6
T-man: Gully, no one here cares about your tender friggin' heart, ya big snoflake!!! :horns: :horns: :horns: :tongue:
Sept 24, 2022 10:24:18 GMT -6
