Healthy tropical wave moving into the Eastern caribbean this morning. Even some slight evidence of low-level spin.
This is the moisture plume/Tropical wave that the European, & its Ensembles, and several other models have been picking up on with potential development in the Western Caribbean/Southern Gulf of Mexico early-mid next week.
Definitely worth keeping a weary eye on over the next 5-7 days!
Last Edit: Aug 6, 2017 20:52:30 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT
I'm very impressed with this system. Infact, given different model runs, I wouldn't be surprised to see this turn into a significant tropical cyclone. The biggest problem it would face is land interaction.
I recall in August 1999, there was a significant tropical wave that slammed into the Yucatan and didn't develop. It moved back over the Bay of Campeche and became Hurricane Bret, a very major hurricane for Texas. I think the key there was that it moved back over water and stopped long enough to develop. I have a feel this system isn't going to just slam right through Central America into the Pacific, therefore I'd be watching this system carefully if I lived in Mexico or the Texas Gulf Coast.
A strong tropical wave located over the southeastern Caribbean Sea is producing a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms, along with tropical-storm-force wind gusts in squalls. Environmental conditions are expected to become a little more conducive for development by Sunday over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and by early next week over the Bay of Campeche while the disturbance moves westward or west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. This system could produce brief heavy rainfall and gusty winds over Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao tonight and Friday. For additional information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Post by SCOT PILIE' on Aug 3, 2017 12:29:34 GMT -6
12Z Euro is rolling -- Out to 120 hours with moderate tropical storm striking the Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday morning. Very favorable upper level conditions over the system indicated by the Euro, which would favor strengthening. So far this run, a ridge of high pressure looks to protect the east-central Gulf Coast...but the door appears open for the western Gulf coast. Download Attachment