Franklin Discussion Thread (Caribbean-GOM)

SCOT PILIE'
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Franklin Discussion Thread (Caribbean-GOM) Aug 3, 2017 9:22:11 GMT -6 via mobile ndg, SKYSUMMIT, and 1 more like this

Post by SCOT PILIE' on Aug 3, 2017 9:22:11 GMT -6

Healthy tropical wave moving into the Eastern caribbean this morning. Even some slight evidence of low-level spin.

This is the moisture plume/Tropical wave that the European, & its Ensembles, and several other models have been picking up on with potential development in the Western Caribbean/Southern Gulf of Mexico early-mid next week.

Definitely worth keeping a weary eye on over the next 5-7 days!

Last Edit: Aug 6, 2017 20:52:30 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT

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ndg GCWX Supporter Posts: 9,591	Franklin Discussion Thread (Caribbean-GOM) Aug 3, 2017 11:38:12 GMT -6 SCOT PILIE' and Siker like this Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by ndg on Aug 3, 2017 11:38:12 GMT -6 This is now Invest 90L

Mike Naso
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Franklin Discussion Thread (Caribbean-GOM) Aug 3, 2017 11:48:41 GMT -6 ndg, DYLAN FEDERICO, and 1 more like this

Post by Mike Naso on Aug 3, 2017 11:48:41 GMT -6

I'm very impressed with this system. Infact, given different model runs, I wouldn't be surprised to see this turn into a significant tropical cyclone. The biggest problem it would face is land interaction.

I recall in August 1999, there was a significant tropical wave that slammed into the Yucatan and didn't develop. It moved back over the Bay of Campeche and became Hurricane Bret, a very major hurricane for Texas. I think the key there was that it moved back over water and stopped long enough to develop. I have a feel this system isn't going to just slam right through Central America into the Pacific, therefore I'd be watching this system carefully if I lived in Mexico or the Texas Gulf Coast.

Siker
Category 3

Posts: 760

Franklin Discussion Thread (Caribbean-GOM) Aug 3, 2017 11:52:26 GMT -6 via mobile SCOT PILIE' likes this

Post by Siker on Aug 3, 2017 11:52:26 GMT -6

A strong tropical wave located over the southeastern Caribbean Sea
is producing a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms, along
with tropical-storm-force wind gusts in squalls. Environmental
conditions are expected to become a little more conducive for
development by Sunday over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and by
early next week over the Bay of Campeche while the disturbance
moves westward or west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. This system
could produce brief heavy rainfall and gusty winds over Aruba,
Bonaire, and Curacao tonight and Friday. For additional information
on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

SCOT PILIE'
Meteorologist

Meteorologist, Coastal Specialist

Posts: 484

Franklin Discussion Thread (Caribbean-GOM) Aug 3, 2017 12:29:34 GMT -6 ndg likes this

Post by SCOT PILIE' on Aug 3, 2017 12:29:34 GMT -6

12Z Euro is rolling -- Out to 120 hours with moderate tropical storm striking the Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday morning. Very favorable upper level conditions over the system indicated by the Euro, which would favor strengthening. So far this run, a ridge of high pressure looks to protect the east-central Gulf Coast...but the door appears open for the western Gulf coast.
Attachment Deleted

Last Edit: Aug 3, 2017 12:33:29 GMT -6 by SCOT PILIE'

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Briella - Houma
Category 5

Posts: 8,421

Franklin Discussion Thread (Caribbean-GOM) Aug 3, 2017 13:03:31 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT likes this

Post by Briella - Houma on Aug 3, 2017 13:03:31 GMT -6

As of 18:00 UTC Aug 03, 2017:

Location: 12.2°N 65.8°W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1011 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1014 mb
Radius of Circulation: 150 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 90 NM

Briella
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Briella - Houma Category 5 Posts: 8,421	Franklin Discussion Thread (Caribbean-GOM) Aug 3, 2017 13:08:41 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Briella - Houma on Aug 3, 2017 13:08:41 GMT -6
	Briella Helicity - The Weather Superstore www.helicity.co

Briella - Houma Category 5 Posts: 8,421	Franklin Discussion Thread (Caribbean-GOM) Aug 3, 2017 13:11:56 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Briella - Houma on Aug 3, 2017 13:11:56 GMT -6
	Briella Helicity - The Weather Superstore www.helicity.co

Siker Category 3 Posts: 760	Franklin Discussion Thread (Caribbean-GOM) Aug 3, 2017 13:49:58 GMT -6 via mobile ndg, DYLAN FEDERICO, and 1 more like this Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Siker on Aug 3, 2017 13:49:58 GMT -6 Pretty huge EPS support, around 35/51 members. Solutions range from southern BoC to Central LA.

Briella - Houma Category 5 Posts: 8,421	Franklin Discussion Thread (Caribbean-GOM) Aug 3, 2017 13:50:24 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Briella - Houma on Aug 3, 2017 13:50:24 GMT -6 Aug 3, 2017 13:49:58 GMT -6 Siker said: Pretty huge EPS support, around 35/51 members. Solutions range from southern BoC to Central LA. Definitely gonna have to watch this one closely.
	Briella Helicity - The Weather Superstore www.helicity.co

DYLAN FEDERICO
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Franklin Discussion Thread (Caribbean-GOM) Aug 3, 2017 14:52:32 GMT -6 via mobile Briella - Houma and SCOT PILIE' like this

Post by DYLAN FEDERICO on Aug 3, 2017 14:52:32 GMT -6

That's not much of a ridge protecting the Gulf Coast on the ECM. Considering the ECM always over-does ridges in the medium to long range, this needs to be watched.

Don't forget the ECM tried to bury Cindy into the Bay of Campeche for days before caving in.

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chloe06 GCWX Supporter Posts: 1,241	Franklin Discussion Thread (Caribbean-GOM) Aug 3, 2017 15:05:27 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by chloe06 on Aug 3, 2017 15:05:27 GMT -6 What are the models predicting as far as strength and intensity?

Briella - Houma Category 5 Posts: 8,421	Franklin Discussion Thread (Caribbean-GOM) Aug 3, 2017 15:22:14 GMT -6 chloe06 likes this Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Briella - Houma on Aug 3, 2017 15:22:14 GMT -6 Aug 3, 2017 15:05:27 GMT -6 chloe06 said: What are the models predicting as far as strength and intensity? Still too early.
	Last Edit: Aug 3, 2017 15:22:36 GMT -6 by Briella - Houma Briella Helicity - The Weather Superstore www.helicity.co

ndg
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Posts: 9,591

Franklin Discussion Thread (Caribbean-GOM) Aug 3, 2017 15:32:56 GMT -6 tgrgrd00 and DYLAN FEDERICO like this

Post by ndg on Aug 3, 2017 15:32:56 GMT -6

Aug 3, 2017 14:52:32 GMT -6 DYLAN FEDERICO said:

I agree but the GFS has the Bermuda ridging across FL& the gulf coast even stronger.

Siker Category 3 Posts: 760	Franklin Discussion Thread (Caribbean-GOM) Aug 3, 2017 15:54:10 GMT -6 via mobile SCOT PILIE' likes this Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Siker on Aug 3, 2017 15:54:10 GMT -6 Strong vort by 90 hours on the 18z GFS, might get development this run.

stormydds: Thanks for your response. I felt that is the case. that's too bad. Has there been any peer reviewed papers on the LRC hypothesis? Nov 4, 2022 14:01:51 GMT -6

Zack Fradella: Not sure, the LRC is something that takes a lot of work to follow and keep up with. It's not as easy as looking at the parameters and making a forecast. This deters many from even giving it a chance. Also, there is some doubt from the weather world. Nov 4, 2022 3:38:49 GMT -6

stormydds: Zack, a friend had a meeting in Lafayette which Rob Perillo spoke.He asked him why the LRC is not used to forecast hurricanes by NOAA.His answer was that Lezak won't share the info.I saw the podcast you and David made with Gary.He seemed open.What gives? Nov 3, 2022 14:39:19 GMT -6

Franklin Discussion Thread (Caribbean-GOM)

Post by SCOT PILIE' on Aug 3, 2017 9:22:11 GMT -6

Post by ndg on Aug 3, 2017 11:38:12 GMT -6

Post by Mike Naso on Aug 3, 2017 11:48:41 GMT -6

Post by Siker on Aug 3, 2017 11:52:26 GMT -6

Post by SCOT PILIE' on Aug 3, 2017 12:29:34 GMT -6

Post by Briella - Houma on Aug 3, 2017 13:03:31 GMT -6

Post by Briella - Houma on Aug 3, 2017 13:08:41 GMT -6

Post by Briella - Houma on Aug 3, 2017 13:11:56 GMT -6

Post by Siker on Aug 3, 2017 13:49:58 GMT -6

Post by Briella - Houma on Aug 3, 2017 13:50:24 GMT -6

Post by DYLAN FEDERICO on Aug 3, 2017 14:52:32 GMT -6

Post by chloe06 on Aug 3, 2017 15:05:27 GMT -6

Post by Briella - Houma on Aug 3, 2017 15:22:14 GMT -6

Post by ndg on Aug 3, 2017 15:32:56 GMT -6

Post by Siker on Aug 3, 2017 15:54:10 GMT -6

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