Franklin Discussion Thread (Caribbean-GOM)

Graphics, please. 

You're right...I didn't follow it through the run lol.

Things are beginning to look interesting for 90L 40/60%.


1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a strong tropical wave

located over the central Caribbean Sea are beginning to show some

signs of organization, and satellite wind data indicate that the

wave is producing a small area of winds that are just below tropical

storm force. Additional development of this system is possible

while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, and a tropical

depression or tropical storm could form over the northwestern

Caribbean Sea before it reaches the Yucatan peninsula late Monday or

Tuesday. Even if formation does not occur before the system

reaches the Yucatan peninsula, a tropical depression or tropical

storm could form over the Bay of Campeche during the middle part of

next week. Development would likely not occur if the system moves

inland over Central America and southeastern Mexico and does not

re-emerge over water. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft

is scheduled to investigate this system tomorrow afternoon, if

necessary. Interests along the coasts of Honduras, Belize, and the

Yucatan peninsula of Mexico should monitor the progress of this

disturbance.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Just before making landfall on the 12z HWRF:

18z GFS turns 90L into a hurricane prior to landfall in Mexico.

00z GFS continues with support for 90L tonight. Could have Franklin by sometime on Tuesday. Here's Wednesday morning: