Irma Discussion Thread

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 64,788 Location: Hammond, LA Staff Member	Irma Discussion Thread Aug 28, 2017 23:07:30 GMT -6 Weatherman518 - 70047/NOLA likes this Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 28, 2017 23:07:30 GMT -6 00z GFS maintaining our next major hurricane here before a trough picks her up and sends her out to sea.
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ndg GCWX Supporter Posts: 9,590	Irma Discussion Thread Aug 29, 2017 5:55:17 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT and DYLAN FEDERICO like this Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by ndg on Aug 29, 2017 5:55:17 GMT -6 King Euro has been trending to a more westward track, not good.

hurricaner
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Irma Discussion Thread Aug 29, 2017 8:07:03 GMT -6

Post by hurricaner on Aug 29, 2017 8:07:03 GMT -6

93L is getting closer 70/90%.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area near

the Cabo Verde Islands have become better organized since yesterday.

Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a

tropical depression is expected to form in 2 or 3 days over the

eastern Atlantic. The low is forecast to move generally

west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical Atlantic during the

next several days. Heavy rain is possible over portions of the Cabo

Verde Islands through Wednesday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

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SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 64,788 Location: Hammond, LA Staff Member	Irma Discussion Thread Aug 29, 2017 8:14:30 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 29, 2017 8:14:30 GMT -6 That's a helluva front the EURO is showing. If that's in place by the time 93L gets there, no way it misses it. Still so so so far out though.
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Irma Discussion Thread Aug 29, 2017 8:39:16 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 29, 2017 8:39:16 GMT -6

  * ATLANTIC     SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED,      OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  INVEST      AL932017  08/29/17  12 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    27    29    31    34    40    47    53    59    62    65    68    71
V (KT) LAND       25    27    29    31    34    40    47    53    59    62    65    68    71
V (KT) LGEM       25    26    27    28    30    33    36    39    44    50    56    62    68
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        11     2     4     8     8     7     4     7     4     3     5     8    10
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     1     4     2     0     0    -3     0    -3     0    -1     2    -7    -4
SHEAR DIR         51    47   261   241   233   219   152   156    88   148   295   249   245
SST (C)         27.9  27.5  27.3  27.0  26.7  26.7  27.1  27.1  26.8  26.5  26.4  26.7  27.0
POT. INT. (KT)   137   132   130   127   123   122   124   123   120   118   118   123   127
ADJ. POT. INT.   136   130   127   124   119   116   115   112   110   108   110   118   123
200 MB T (C)   -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -54.3
200 MB VXT (C)   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.2   0.1   0.2   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.3
TH_E DEV (C)       7     7     7     6     6     7     6     7     7     7     8     9     9
700-500 MB RH     74    74    72    70    67    64    60    59    57    55    47    42    44
MODEL VTX (KT)    12    12    12    12    13    13    14    14    14    12    12    12    13
850 MB ENV VOR    50    49    48    48    63    70    66    81    71    55    40    49    48
200 MB DIV        43    41    43    40    32    35    36    34    52    18   -21   -19    16
700-850 TADV       3     2     4     7     7    -1    -2     1     6     2     3    -5    -1
LAND (KM)        666   809   964  1147  1333  1629  1840  1966  2090  2181  2151  1997  1809
LAT (DEG N)     15.2  16.3  17.1  17.8  18.2  18.1  17.6  17.6  18.2  19.1  19.8  20.2  20.2
LONG(DEG W)     23.7  24.9  26.2  27.8  29.5  32.4  34.5  35.7  36.8  37.8  39.8  42.7  46.4
STM SPEED (KT)    15    15    16    17    15    13     8     5     6     8    12    16    18
HEAT CONTENT       3    10    13     8     2     1     9     9     6     7     8    17    10

  FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13      CX,CY: -10/  7
  T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  523  (MEAN=618)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  18.2 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  52.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR):            1.4

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  10.  11.  12.  13.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   1.   1.   3.   6.  10.  15.  19.  22.  24.  25.  27.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   4.   5.   7.   9.  11.  12.  13.  13.  13.  12.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ    -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   3.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   0.   0.  -0.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.
  PERSISTENCE           -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -0.   0.   0.   1.
  200/250 MB TEMP.      -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -0.  -0.   0.
  THETA_E EXCESS        -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  700-500 MB RH         -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -3.  -3.  -2.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY    -0.  -0.  -1.  -0.  -0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -4.  -6.  -6.  -6.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   3.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -0.  -0.   0.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION    -0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.
  GOES PREDICTORS       -0.  -0.   0.  -0.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -2.  -2.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT    -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           2.   4.   6.   9.  15.  22.  28.  34.  37.  40.  43.  46.

                CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   25. LAT, LON:   15.2    23.7

      ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932017 INVEST     08/29/17  12 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
 
     Predictor             Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):     0.0     -49.5  to   33.0       0.60         999.0
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :     6.4      30.1  to    2.9       0.87         999.0
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) :     7.2       0.0  to  156.2       0.05         999.0
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP  :     0.4       2.4  to   -3.0       0.38         999.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :   999.0      36.6  to    2.8     999.00         999.0
 MAXIMUM WIND (kt)     :    25.0      22.5  to  121.0       0.07         999.0
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :   102.3      28.4  to  139.6       0.66         999.0
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :    39.8     -29.7  to  181.5       0.33         999.0
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2):   105.6     961.4  to  -67.1       0.83         999.0
 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm:     0.0     100.0  to    0.0       1.00         999.0
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.5%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
    
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48  |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:   999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%
    Logistic:   999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%
    Bayesian:   999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%
   Consensus:   999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932017 INVEST     08/29/2017  12 UTC **
TIME(HR)   0-12  12-24(0-24)  24-36(0-36)  36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%)     0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%)      0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)

** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
      TIME (HR)      0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS)  25    27    29    31    34    40    47    53    59    62    65    68    71
 18HR AGO           25    24    26    28    31    37    44    50    56    59    62    65    68
 12HR AGO           25    22    21    23    26    32    39    45    51    54    57    60    63
  6HR AGO           25    19    16    15    18    24    31    37    43    46    49    52    55
      NOW                              CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
  IN  6HR                              INTENSITY IN  6HR < 83 KT
  IN 12HR                              INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT

Last Edit: Aug 29, 2017 8:39:41 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT

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hurricaner
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Irma Discussion Thread Aug 29, 2017 12:13:02 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT and Briella - Houma like this

Post by hurricaner on Aug 29, 2017 12:13:02 GMT -6

93L is close to being upgraded 80/90%.

A low pressure area located just west of the Cabo Verde Islands has

become better defined since yesterday. Any significant increase in

the associated thunderstorm activity would result in the formation

of a tropical depression within the next day or two. The low is

forecast to move generally west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over

the tropical Atlantic during the next several days. Heavy rain is

possible over portions of the northwestern Cabo Verde Islands

through tonight.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

GCWX Board Member

Will - Ascension Parish GCWX Supporter Posts: 2,775	Irma Discussion Thread Aug 29, 2017 12:49:46 GMT -6 via mobile Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Will - Ascension Parish on Aug 29, 2017 12:49:46 GMT -6 Is this still expected to go fishing?

Briella - Houma Category 5 Posts: 8,421	Irma Discussion Thread Aug 29, 2017 12:52:26 GMT -6 red541 and PinkFreud - Nola FQ like this Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Briella - Houma on Aug 29, 2017 12:52:26 GMT -6 Aug 29, 2017 12:49:46 GMT -6 Will - Ascension Parish said: Is this still expected to go fishing? There are no expectations. Expect the unexpected.
	Briella Helicity - The Weather Superstore www.helicity.co

SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 64,788 Location: Hammond, LA Staff Member	Irma Discussion Thread Aug 29, 2017 12:52:57 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 29, 2017 12:52:57 GMT -6 EURO is trying to send it farther west. If that big trough isn't there, then yea...we'll have to watch it. BTW, that's NOT Harvey in the Gulf right here. This would be next weeks's storm *wine
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Briella - Houma Category 5 Posts: 8,421	Irma Discussion Thread Aug 29, 2017 12:57:52 GMT -6 Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Briella - Houma on Aug 29, 2017 12:57:52 GMT -6
	Briella Helicity - The Weather Superstore www.helicity.co

SKYSUMMIT
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Irma Discussion Thread Aug 29, 2017 13:14:08 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 29, 2017 13:14:08 GMT -6

Canadian also picking up on it nicely and in agreement with the EURO. Both, however, show a deep trough dipping into the lower 48 which should pick it up along the east coast. BUT...we're a ways away so if that trough isn't there in future runs, it's game time.

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SKYSUMMIT Administrator President \| Director of Operations Posts: 64,788 Location: Hammond, LA Staff Member	Irma Discussion Thread Aug 29, 2017 16:57:35 GMT -6 roz, Siker, and 1 more like this Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 29, 2017 16:57:35 GMT -6 Well Hello...first GFS run to send 93L into the Gulf:
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isaactheterrible_ EBR Parish GCWX Supporter Posts: 478	Irma Discussion Thread Aug 29, 2017 17:05:13 GMT -6 via mobile PinkFreud - Nola FQ likes this Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by isaactheterrible_ EBR Parish on Aug 29, 2017 17:05:13 GMT -6 Aug 29, 2017 16:57:35 GMT -6 SKYSUMMIT said: Well Hello...first GFS run to send 93L into the Gulf: I'm knowing you are not serious 😱😱

SKYSUMMIT
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Irma Discussion Thread Aug 29, 2017 17:10:04 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 29, 2017 17:10:04 GMT -6

That's not me, that's the GFS

The Euro has been trending more west with each run, but has also been showing a very deep trough that would pick it up. However if there's no trough, game is on. Then again, if there is a trough and it gets to the gulf, the north gulf coast is open for business.

Earlier GFS runs quickly organized and strengthened 93L in the short term which made it feel a weakness in the Bermuda ridge. This run keeps it weak until it's north of the Antilles and then it begins organizing.

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cajungal Category 5 Posts: 5,097	Irma Discussion Thread Aug 29, 2017 17:12:30 GMT -6 via mobile red541 and PinkFreud - Nola FQ like this Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by cajungal on Aug 29, 2017 17:12:30 GMT -6 Gosh mother nature what got you so mad at the gulf coast?
	60 miles southwest of New Orleans) Thibodaux, La

Irma Discussion Thread

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 28, 2017 23:07:30 GMT -6

Post by ndg on Aug 29, 2017 5:55:17 GMT -6

Post by hurricaner on Aug 29, 2017 8:07:03 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 29, 2017 8:14:30 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 29, 2017 8:39:16 GMT -6

Post by hurricaner on Aug 29, 2017 12:13:02 GMT -6

Post by Will - Ascension Parish on Aug 29, 2017 12:49:46 GMT -6

Post by Briella - Houma on Aug 29, 2017 12:52:26 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 29, 2017 12:52:57 GMT -6

Post by Briella - Houma on Aug 29, 2017 12:57:52 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 29, 2017 13:14:08 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 29, 2017 16:57:35 GMT -6

Post by isaactheterrible_ EBR Parish on Aug 29, 2017 17:05:13 GMT -6

Post by SKYSUMMIT on Aug 29, 2017 17:10:04 GMT -6

Post by cajungal on Aug 29, 2017 17:12:30 GMT -6

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