FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 523 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.4
** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932017 INVEST 08/29/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 30.1 to 2.9 0.87 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 7.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.05 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.4 to -3.0 0.38 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.3 28.4 to 139.6 0.66 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.33 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 105.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.83 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
Canadian also picking up on it nicely and in agreement with the EURO. Both, however, show a deep trough dipping into the lower 48 which should pick it up along the east coast. BUT...we're a ways away so if that trough isn't there in future runs, it's game time.
The Euro has been trending more west with each run, but has also been showing a very deep trough that would pick it up. However if there's no trough, game is on. Then again, if there is a trough and it gets to the gulf, the north gulf coast is open for business.
Earlier GFS runs quickly organized and strengthened 93L in the short term which made it feel a weakness in the Bermuda ridge. This run keeps it weak until it's north of the Antilles and then it begins organizing.
