500 mb heights are not right just yet for sustained cold down here. Both Euro and GEFS ensemble 500 mb still suggest more optimum height rises over Alaska, Greenland, and over the pole could set up towards the end of the month. Right on time for the climatology coldest and "snowiest" averages for us, the first two weeks of February. Be patient. Besides Wilson (see photo left) wants to get his sled out again this year.
Last Edit: Jan 15, 2019 4:50:19 GMT -6 by kennethb
Post by tomlinson10 on Jan 15, 2019 12:00:19 GMT -6
Models seeing an emerging Atlantic ridge, which is blocking our lows from coming eastward into the gulf. Instead they’re passing north of us. Need to see that ridge break down on the next few runs to get us closer to yesterday’s 18z solution.
Not trying to be negative but the models are pretty horrible at predicting what actually happens a week out
I"m certainly no expert, but the models do frequently see-saw on their way towards reality. Wouldn't surprise me a bit if it gets a lot colder in the next 4 weeks. I saw one snowfall model yesterday that had Snowmageddon through central LA up to the Appalachans and East Coast. Just need to bend reality to fit the model!
