Post by HarahanTim - Now in Covington! on Apr 21, 2020 4:41:45 GMT -6
NWS New Orleans @nwsneworleans ·
Another severe weather threat across southeast Louisiana and south Mississippi Wednesday night through midday Thursday, with the highest threat on the Mississippi coast Thursday. Please remain weather aware with more than one way to receive warnings. #lawx #mswx
Last Edit: Mar 2, 2021 14:20:24 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT
Seems like severe threat is always the same areas. South shore seems to only get rain for like 5 mins and that is it. Definitely don’t want a tornado but enjoy a good thunderstorm here and there.
Yeah, it's because of their release times. The Slight Risk will progress over SELA during the overnight hours and then upgrade to Enhanced, likely once it's passed us.
I'm changing the label from this threat to Enhanced b/c if you look closely, Plaquemines Parish is under the Enhanced Risk for Day 2 (although late but still).
I don't see much happening across southeast Louisiana on any model so SO FAR. It looks like the main threats will stay well north and east of places south of I10/12. This includes chances of significant rain as well, with most of those same spots getting an inch or so or less of rain from this system. This has been a very persistent pattern and I feel it's getting unlikely at this point that southeast Louisiana will be A SIGNIFICANT part of any of the larger, dense outbreaks just north, especially as we get into May, though that doesn't rule out a few storm reports here and there, as we have seen. As we move through spring, severe weather tends to become even more localized and harder to predict as seabreeze features, outflow boundaries, and small disturbances tend to be the focus of most severe weather events here rather than the well advertised and forecasted outbreaks farther inland driven by large systems traversing the country.
Not sure what model or models this is based on. It's far nastier and more aggressive than any other radar simulation I've seen of tomorrow's event. Anyway...