Latest Severe Weather Risk - Wed 4/22 - Thurs 4/23

I'm still not seeing much that looks too scary for areas near or south of I10/12. Like the last few, and it seems many events, the worst of the rain and severe weather should stay away from southern LA, either west, north, or east. This is reflected in the SPC outlook and in the LIX afternoon discussion:


An active convective complex and possibly some supercells are
expected to move across the region late tonight into Thursday
morning. This system should be dissipating in the morning with a
renewed development area, possibly in a squall line during mid
morning to around midday in areas closer to the southshore of Lake
Pontchartrain and the coastal areas. This will likely bring the
threat of severe thunderstorms with all hazards possible. One note
that is a change from earlier is the updated SPC Day 2 Convective
Outlook issued around midday today includes a hatched area of
hail which indicates the potential for very large hail over 2
inches in diameter within 25 miles of a point from near Lake
Pontchartrain and the northshore northeastward through
southeast/coastal Mississippi into much of Alabama. Areas in the
slight to moderate risk areas are also in a higher risk for
damaging winds and a few tornadoes.

My experience tells me to never let your guard down, but the models (the globals as well as HRRR and NAM) are and have been showing a mostly non-severe situation for southern areas with spotty rain, the most threatening feature being a weakening, razor thin line of mediocre convection easing east southeast - not exactly a dangerous looking convective system. Before the last two big systems, similarly non threatening convection or inconsistent depictions the day before signaled that convection would struggle, and that's what happened. Hopefully if severe weather does materialize around here, it won't last long or will be nearly offshore before it gets too bad

it seems like now that the tornado Alley is now parts of Texas all Louisiana and Mississippi seems like Oklahoma City is no longer the tornado Alley like used to be it seem like it's all Louisiana Mississippi and parts of Texas now that's what I've been seeing for the last year's what I mean by is it seems like Oklahoma City is not seeing all the tornadoes no more it seems like you hear more now about Texas and Louisiana and Mississippi getting a hit the most with tornadoes now That's what it seems like for years trying to make sense of what I'm trying to say.

I agree 

Please post radar pic indicating this cell with towns names on it. Thx. 

Have not checked but the radar presentation has a hook that started well within E Texas.

Curious to see if it regenerates.