Post by hurricaner on Jul 22, 2020 17:45:32 GMT -6
It looks like the biggest thing holding it back is the disorganization of the thunderstorms.
Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters and surface observations indicate that an area of low pressure over the central Gulf of Mexico is gradually becoming better defined. However, the accompanying shower and thunderstorm activity is still poorly organized. Environmental conditions appear conducive for slow development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or so as it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph. Interests in the western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system, as watches or warnings could be required for portions of the coasts of Texas and Louisiana tonight or on Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
Last Edit: Jul 22, 2020 17:46:22 GMT -6 by hurricaner
Post by grisairgasm on Jul 22, 2020 19:27:59 GMT -6
Upper dynamics look pretty good. Nice convective burst this evening near a possible “center”. Seems to be in it’s own moisture envelope. Only real issue I see is some impingement on the SW side due to the ULL. Outflow looks decent and has the anti cyclonic cirrus look in places. Gulf is plenty warm. Everyone of these things are the same yet so different. Each of them is a learning experience. Weather is incredible!
Post by hurricaner on Jul 22, 2020 20:56:53 GMT -6
We now have TD #8.
Tropical Depression Eight Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020 1000 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2020
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE TEXAS COAST...
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
LOCATION...25.9N 88.2W ABOUT 530 MI...855 KM ESE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
Last Edit: Jul 22, 2020 20:57:17 GMT -6 by hurricaner
Post by grisairgasm on Jul 23, 2020 8:37:52 GMT -6
I do think we will get Hannah out of this later today or tomorrow. Looks like circulation is tucked under or very near the center. Persistent convection and outflow aloft looks good. Classic cirrus canopy and I see no real shear. Will be interesting to watch the evolution today.