I would think this is very close to being designated 98L
Last Edit: Sept 14, 2020 19:03:55 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT
REALTOR - Team Geaux Realty, LLC (Let me be your Realtor!) Search homes on my website --> www.scottguidry.com/ NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23
12z CMC puts a Cat 2 into Pensacola at the end of the run.
and that other swirl in the western Gulf in this graphic would be what's left of 97L
REALTOR - Team Geaux Realty, LLC (Let me be your Realtor!) Search homes on my website --> www.scottguidry.com/ NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23
Which one will get 98L? The farther west complex seems to have the better low level convergence and vorticity right now.
REALTOR - Team Geaux Realty, LLC (Let me be your Realtor!) Search homes on my website --> www.scottguidry.com/ NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23
Post by hurricaner on Aug 17, 2020 11:48:53 GMT -6
Looks like both will be Invest 98L.
A tropical wave over the eastern tropical Atlantic is forecast to interact with another disturbance located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands within the next day or two. This interaction is expected to lead to the formation of a broad area of low pressure, and conditions are forecast to be conducive for the development of a tropical depression during the middle-to-latter part of this week while the system moves westward to west- northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the central and western portions of the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
Last Edit: Aug 17, 2020 11:49:21 GMT -6 by hurricaner
Post by grisairgasm on Aug 17, 2020 13:32:18 GMT -6
There is a potential hurricane heading towards the SE US. Any speculation beyond that this far out is useless. Expect the normal wiper scenario. My general thought right now is a true recurve sparing the entire E coast is less likely than a direct impact somewhere.Atlantic high pressure seems more dominant than a weaker trough right now. The problem with a near miss right now is it won’t be there next Wed. It is going to be L or R of some of the forecast points as usual.
Post by grisairgasm on Aug 17, 2020 13:44:07 GMT -6
The good news is the hurricane cone accuracy is just phenomenal these days. 72 hours out and we will know almost exactly where it will be. I actually think NHC downplays how good modern forecasting tracks are in the interest of ultimate safety. It’s 4-5 day cone is becoming better all the time. Intensity forecasting? Long way to go there.
SKYSUMMIT: I'm hoping we're shoveling snow for Christmas
Nov 16, 2022 14:58:12 GMT -6
stormydds: Thanks for your reply... as usual
Nov 5, 2022 11:37:29 GMT -6
Zack Fradella: Yea, Lezak had a paper peer reviewed and published a year or so ago.
Nov 5, 2022 9:03:24 GMT -6
stormydds: Thanks for your response. I felt that is the case. that's too bad. Has there been any peer reviewed papers on the LRC hypothesis?
Nov 4, 2022 14:01:51 GMT -6
Zack Fradella: Not sure, the LRC is something that takes a lot of work to follow and keep up with. It's not as easy as looking at the parameters and making a forecast. This deters many from even giving it a chance. Also, there is some doubt from the weather world.
Nov 4, 2022 3:38:49 GMT -6
stormydds: Zack, a friend had a meeting in Lafayette which Rob Perillo spoke.He asked him why the LRC is not used to forecast hurricanes by NOAA.His answer was that Lezak won't share the info.I saw the podcast you and David made with Gary.He seemed open.What gives?
Nov 3, 2022 14:39:19 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: Man I really hope that rain moves quickly on Saturday. I'm so pumped for 6 hours of awesome college football!
Nov 3, 2022 7:15:01 GMT -6
PinkFreud - Nola FQ: Been unblocked. Dylan says that the station took major damage, so no idea when they'll even be able to stream again, or be on the air. Hopefully, they will at least let their employees deal with their own property issues!
Oct 2, 2022 18:17:35 GMT -6
gullywasher: Seriously, must we deal with Bruce Katz at noon, 4, 5 AND 9. ?
Sept 30, 2022 20:03:25 GMT -6
PinkFreud - Nola FQ: According to another met on twitter, the kitten was rescued by a producer who's adopting it. Of course that hasn't stopped the angry mob, with torches and pitchforks, who are insisting that it's a lie.
Sept 29, 2022 17:48:05 GMT -6
nolachic: Pink - he's probably blocking people he doesn't personally know to keep his cell charged and to get his head straight, and I'm sure he is beyond exhausted.
Sept 29, 2022 9:23:35 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: I sent him a message yesterday as well, but he hasn't seen it.
Sept 29, 2022 5:46:06 GMT -6
PinkFreud - Nola FQ: Oh hell, I meant for that to be a message!
Sept 28, 2022 19:38:19 GMT -6
PinkFreud - Nola FQ: Dylan is taking a beating on Twitter. I just tried to send him a message of support, since we've been following each other for years, and HE BLOCKED ME!!!!!! Somebody who can get to him needs to do so, pronto!!! I'm very worried about him.
Sept 28, 2022 19:37:27 GMT -6
HarahanTim - Now in Covington!: Hmmm, I will say. that somewhere back there, we have stored the "Tums" icon, for those that give a prediction based on their "gut"!
Sept 24, 2022 11:38:12 GMT -6
T-man: Gully, no one here cares about your tender friggin' heart, ya big snoflake!!! :horns: :horns: :horns: :tongue:
Sept 24, 2022 10:24:18 GMT -6
12Z EPS