Post by hurricaner on Aug 17, 2020 11:48:53 GMT -6
Looks like both will be Invest 98L.
A tropical wave over the eastern tropical Atlantic is forecast to interact with another disturbance located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands within the next day or two. This interaction is expected to lead to the formation of a broad area of low pressure, and conditions are forecast to be conducive for the development of a tropical depression during the middle-to-latter part of this week while the system moves westward to west- northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the central and western portions of the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
Last Edit: Aug 17, 2020 11:49:21 GMT -6 by hurricaner
Post by grisairgasm on Aug 17, 2020 13:32:18 GMT -6
There is a potential hurricane heading towards the SE US. Any speculation beyond that this far out is useless. Expect the normal wiper scenario. My general thought right now is a true recurve sparing the entire E coast is less likely than a direct impact somewhere.Atlantic high pressure seems more dominant than a weaker trough right now. The problem with a near miss right now is it won’t be there next Wed. It is going to be L or R of some of the forecast points as usual.
Post by grisairgasm on Aug 17, 2020 13:44:07 GMT -6
The good news is the hurricane cone accuracy is just phenomenal these days. 72 hours out and we will know almost exactly where it will be. I actually think NHC downplays how good modern forecasting tracks are in the interest of ultimate safety. It’s 4-5 day cone is becoming better all the time. Intensity forecasting? Long way to go there.
12Z EPS
![](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT02/refresh/AL022022_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/204710_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png")
