I noticed the 5-Day Cone for 98L from 8/17/20 to 8/18/20 by the NWS in New Orleans appears to have considerably slowed 98L. What is the reason for this?
Last Edit: Aug 18, 2020 7:50:10 GMT -6 by kplaisance
SKYSUMMIT President | Director of OperationsAdministrator
I noticed the 5-Day Cone for 98L from 8/17/20 to 8/18/20 by the NWS in New Orleans appears to have considerably slowed 98L. What is the reason for this?
That's not a forecast track. The colored zones are simply the areas represented where a depression or storm may form. A shorter zone just means sooner organization is more likely.
Last Edit: Aug 18, 2020 8:37:50 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT
By next Tuesday, 12z ICON quickly weakens the ridge to its north and has 98L as a strong Hurricane, hitting south Florida, turning north into the peninsula.
Last Edit: Aug 18, 2020 9:48:32 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT
And it really hasn't done anything with it in most of it's runs. It's been consistently showing 97L developing into Laura and poofing 98L before can become Marco. GFS is definitely the outlier in all the runs I'm seeing. I think it had one run a couple days ago where it looked like it was going to get on board with the other models. Then it went back to showing what it's been showing.
Post by hurricaner on Aug 18, 2020 11:54:19 GMT -6
Invest 98L is now 80/90%.
An area of low pressure located about 1300 miles east of the Lesser Antilles is producing a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected to form within the next couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the central and western portions of the tropical Atlantic. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
Last Edit: Aug 18, 2020 11:55:03 GMT -6 by hurricaner
GCWX Board Member
SKYSUMMIT President | Director of OperationsAdministrator
It's such a LARGE entity! The convective mass almost covers half of the Atlantic's MDR. ASCAT shows two areas of broad circulation. One of these needs to win out.
