For whatever it's worth, the HWRF has 98L taking a more southern route, moving almost due west across the northern Caribbean as a major hurricane.
REALTOR - Team Geaux Realty, LLC (Let me be your Realtor!) Search homes on my website --> www.scottguidry.com/ NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23
Post by gullywasher on Aug 18, 2020 13:33:57 GMT -6
I still wish there was a "Captain Obvious" emoji
If I owned Baskins & Robbins, I would feature a special at all stores in a storms path. It would be a double scoop for the price of a single, but it would be two different flavors of the largest in inventory. Since this would be the servers decision........why of course, it would be called ........................"The Cone of Uncertainity"
SKYSUMMIT
Administrator President | Director of Operations
When do they organize? Where do the centers form? How do they interact with land? How strong down the road? The future of steering in 7 days?
Looking at individual model guidance every 6 hours is strictly entertainment.
I know huh? Why couldn't it be every 3 hours?
18z tropical plots:
Last Edit: Aug 18, 2020 13:40:55 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT
REALTOR - Team Geaux Realty, LLC (Let me be your Realtor!) Search homes on my website --> www.scottguidry.com/ NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23
Post by SCOT PILIE' on Aug 18, 2020 13:49:44 GMT -6
Piggy-backing on what Zack just mentioned...
Almost a "double-barreled" structure with Invest 98L this afternoon. At first glance, it legitimately looks like two developing systems embedded in monsoon trough.
With multiple vortex's, this is likely a reason for suspect afternoon model guidance on the system's future...until dominant center develops with the Invest, models will struggle w/ system's future.
Almost a "double-barreled" structure with Invest 98L this afternoon. At first glance, it legitimately looks like two developing systems embedded in monsoon trough.
With multiple vortex's, this is likely a reason for suspect afternoon model guidance on the system's future...until dominant center develops with the Invest, models will struggle w/ system's future.
yeah, I mentioned on that on the last page too. ASCAT missed most of it, but you can see 2 broad areas of circulation. My concern with this is the longer it takes to come together, the farther west it'll make it (then there are the islands that could rip it up as well though). Just think if we can exit both of these invests, in late August, with zero outcome lol.
REALTOR - Team Geaux Realty, LLC (Let me be your Realtor!) Search homes on my website --> www.scottguidry.com/ NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23
Almost a "double-barreled" structure with Invest 98L this afternoon. At first glance, it legitimately looks like two developing systems embedded in monsoon trough.
With multiple vortex's, this is likely a reason for suspect afternoon model guidance on the system's future...until dominant center develops with the Invest, models will struggle w/ system's future.
yeah, I mentioned on that on the last page too. ASCAT missed most of it, but you can see 2 broad areas of circulation. My concern with this is the longer it takes to come together, the farther west it'll make it (then there are the islands that could rip it up as well though). Just think if we can exit both of these invests, in late August, with zero outcome lol.
Almost a "double-barreled" structure with Invest 98L this afternoon. At first glance, it legitimately looks like two developing systems embedded in monsoon trough.
With multiple vortex's, this is likely a reason for suspect afternoon model guidance on the system's future...until dominant center develops with the Invest, models will struggle w/ system's future.
Is it possible that two systems develop out of that?
SKYSUMMIT
Administrator President | Director of Operations
I made a post on FB and someone asked about the SAL. It doesn't look like SAL is going to have much of an effect on either.
REALTOR - Team Geaux Realty, LLC (Let me be your Realtor!) Search homes on my website --> www.scottguidry.com/ NWS COOP ID: 16-7425-08 CoCoRaHs ID: LA-TG-23
SKYSUMMIT: I'm hoping we're shoveling snow for Christmas
Nov 16, 2022 14:58:12 GMT -6
stormydds: Thanks for your reply... as usual
Nov 5, 2022 11:37:29 GMT -6
Zack Fradella: Yea, Lezak had a paper peer reviewed and published a year or so ago.
Nov 5, 2022 9:03:24 GMT -6
stormydds: Thanks for your response. I felt that is the case. that's too bad. Has there been any peer reviewed papers on the LRC hypothesis?
Nov 4, 2022 14:01:51 GMT -6
Zack Fradella: Not sure, the LRC is something that takes a lot of work to follow and keep up with. It's not as easy as looking at the parameters and making a forecast. This deters many from even giving it a chance. Also, there is some doubt from the weather world.
Nov 4, 2022 3:38:49 GMT -6
stormydds: Zack, a friend had a meeting in Lafayette which Rob Perillo spoke.He asked him why the LRC is not used to forecast hurricanes by NOAA.His answer was that Lezak won't share the info.I saw the podcast you and David made with Gary.He seemed open.What gives?
Nov 3, 2022 14:39:19 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: Man I really hope that rain moves quickly on Saturday. I'm so pumped for 6 hours of awesome college football!
Nov 3, 2022 7:15:01 GMT -6
PinkFreud - Nola FQ: Been unblocked. Dylan says that the station took major damage, so no idea when they'll even be able to stream again, or be on the air. Hopefully, they will at least let their employees deal with their own property issues!
Oct 2, 2022 18:17:35 GMT -6
gullywasher: Seriously, must we deal with Bruce Katz at noon, 4, 5 AND 9. ?
Sept 30, 2022 20:03:25 GMT -6
PinkFreud - Nola FQ: According to another met on twitter, the kitten was rescued by a producer who's adopting it. Of course that hasn't stopped the angry mob, with torches and pitchforks, who are insisting that it's a lie.
Sept 29, 2022 17:48:05 GMT -6
nolachic: Pink - he's probably blocking people he doesn't personally know to keep his cell charged and to get his head straight, and I'm sure he is beyond exhausted.
Sept 29, 2022 9:23:35 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: I sent him a message yesterday as well, but he hasn't seen it.
Sept 29, 2022 5:46:06 GMT -6
PinkFreud - Nola FQ: Oh hell, I meant for that to be a message!
Sept 28, 2022 19:38:19 GMT -6
PinkFreud - Nola FQ: Dylan is taking a beating on Twitter. I just tried to send him a message of support, since we've been following each other for years, and HE BLOCKED ME!!!!!! Somebody who can get to him needs to do so, pronto!!! I'm very worried about him.
Sept 28, 2022 19:37:27 GMT -6
HarahanTim - Now in Covington!: Hmmm, I will say. that somewhere back there, we have stored the "Tums" icon, for those that give a prediction based on their "gut"!
Sept 24, 2022 11:38:12 GMT -6
T-man: Gully, no one here cares about your tender friggin' heart, ya big snoflake!!! :horns: :horns: :horns: :tongue:
Sept 24, 2022 10:24:18 GMT -6
